2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs First Round Preview

Nikolaj Ehlers fights Sam Steel (Julio Cortez, Associated Press)

    As the days grow longer and longer, the hockey only becomes more meaningful. The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs are around the corner, as 16 teams will be pitted against the field with a chance at hockey's greatest chalice, Lord Stanley's mug, on the line. As one may expect from a narrative-driven sport such as hockey, the storylines are plentiful. While we all adore the frenzy of regular season hockey, the postseason brings action in spades, a veritable cheat code for adrenaline junkies.

    In this article, I will be diving into each of the eight first-round matchups, pointing out the most relevant tactical nuances, and outlining the specific elements to watch during your viewing experience through my usual mix of obsessiveness with Canada's sport and eloquent writing abilities (never said I was humble).

    A quick disclaimer: a vast majority of the words in this article are dedicated to previewing the matchups, rather than offering an explicit prediction, which I find to be a somewhat frivolous activity. As I have always said, if we assume a 10% talent gap between teams in a series (which is actually quite large in a stagnant salary cap world), the lesser squad has a 40% chance to win the series. So, I will certainly be offering an "informed" prediction based on key factors, such as goaltending, special teams, and tactics, but you can take the prediction part of this article with a small grain of salt. Realistically, most of these are simple coin tosses.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Toronto Maple Leafs (A1) vs Ottawa Senators (WC1)

Anthony Stolarz gets beat by a shot (Dan Hamilton/Imagn Images)

    Most of my readership is made up of Leafs fans who will be eager to hear that their favourite team has a clear path to the second round. While I firmly believe in the significant gulf in quality between the Florida Panthers and the Ottawa Senators, I would hardly say that drawing the Sens is a consolation prize worth celebrating. As usual, the Leafs are clear favourites on paper, but it is a futile exercise to trust the Leafs to get the job done. With a new philosophy in place, I am very anxious to see if the organizational shift will bear fruit.

    During the Auston Matthews era, the Maple Leafs have consolidated their reputation as an elite play-driving team that controls shot and chance shares during the regular season. After firing Sheldon Keefe in the offseason to bring in Craig Berube, the architect behind the St. Louis Blues' dramatic Stanley Cup run in 2019, the Leafs abandoned their meticulous, possession-based offense. Instead of filling their depth roles with skilled players to generate consistent puck possession, the Brad Treliving era has been marked by the team's commitment to size and strength to execute a punishing, ground-and-pound system. Berube's 1-2-2 forecheck would not work without the personnel additions that the team has made in recent years. The likes of Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz have the strength and quick change of direction to steal the puck behind the goal line and to attack on the cycle. A common misinterpretation of the Leafs' offensive zone tactics is that the team is too rigid to allow their stars (namely Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander) to excel. In fact, the Leafs' top-six, generally, uses a Keefe-esque motion offense to give their stars an opportunity to solve problems in creative ways. The one deviation is the team's strategy on zone entry. Previously, the Core 4 would attack the zone in waves to overwhelm their opponent's defense. However, as the game tightens up in the postseason, teams can easily force the Leafs to the outside and protect the high-danger areas. Now, the Leafs send a complementary player, like Knies or Bobby McMann, to pressure the puck carrier on the forecheck, while their stars park on the half wall for a chance to start the cycle. This has severely impacted the team's O-zone time, but they are still producing high danger chances at a similar rate. 

    Ottawa plays a rather traditional passive Box+1 system in their own zone, but they've stymied the Leafs in most of their meetings this year. Using regular season results to predict a playoff series is a risky gamble, but there are interesting lessons to examine in this case. In Ottawa's Box+1, rather than pressuring the defensemen with the puck, the weak side forward steps down to protect the slot. Most of the Leafs' eyesore offensive performances have come against teams that can simultaneously neutralize the one-time threat from Matthews and stop the puck from making its way to the high slot above the hashmarks. To break down Ottawa and threaten Linus Ullmark, Matthews cannot be hesitant; he just needs to let it rip. In the past, the Leafs' postseason opponents have targeted Marner out of the belief that snuffing Marner out of the game also eliminates Matthews to a certain extent. I need to reiterate that Auston Matthews is an absolutely incredible player. His incredible shot, defensive dominance, and play-driving don't get nearly enough credit. If you don't believe me, watch Game 2 of the Toronto-Boston series last year or the first period of the USA-Finland game during the 4 Nations round robin. Ottawa will feel comfortable throwing Jake Sanderson against him (primarily because Sanderson is incredible in his own right), but Matthews at peak performance is genuinely in the McDavid tier of players. We haven't seen that out of him yet this year, but he should have all the motivation to do so against the Senators. He's a 27-year-old superstar who hasn't had a signature playoff series yet. This is a pretty good time to cement his legacy.

    The Senators have finally made it back into the playoffs after an eight year wait. Though the team has been in the midst of a rebuilding phase since then, they still exhibit many of the typical habits of a young team. New coach Travis Green has brought an air of professionalism and commitment to the Sens, but his tactics haven't lit the world on fire. Ottawa has a mediocre 47.2 goals-for percentage, the 25th best mark in the league. While many teams are increasingly unwilling to settle for low-percentage shots in the modern NHL, the Senators stand out for their determination to cycle the play out to the defensemen and try to win the loose puck to reclaim possession. This shoot and retrieve tactic can still work very well against soft-skill teams, but this was a primary reason for the Leafs' culture change. By acquiring strong defensemen that can clear the net-front area, the Leafs should have a methodical advantage if they create an open line of sight for their goalies. Ottawa can also threaten with the back door pass to the D attacking downhill. This creates high percentage looks in the crease, but Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo have proven adept at blocking passing lanes in front of the net, especially during the last month. In addition, while Sanderson and Thomas Chabot can execute the plays that are asked of them in this system, Ottawa's other blueliners aren't exactly oozing with creativity. For instance, Travis Hamonic's 0.93 on-ice goals per 60 is the lowest mark recorded by a defenseman in 17 years. 

    The Maple Leafs aren't the only team that can be a menace on the forecheck. Ottawa has a handful of players that worry me quite a bit as a Toronto fan if the Leafs' puck-moving defensemen (Morgan Rielly, Tanev) fail to deal with pressure. Brady Tkachuk, like his brother, projects as the perfect postseason performer. His strength and speed on the forecheck created two goals for the United States in the 4 Nations final against Canada. Tkachuk's presence as a net-front pest will certainly cause headaches for the Leafs. It's worth noting that Tkachuk has looked injured since the 4 Nations final, but he has spent the last two weeks recovering from an upper-body injury. All indications point to Tkachuk being available for the majority of the series, but if he is only at 80% of his apex performance, that will be a massive blow for Ottawa. The other forechecking threat is Ottawa's third line of Ridly Greig-Shane Pinto-Michael Amadio. The Leafs are still tinkering with their third line, even at this late stage of the season. The addition of Scott Laughton has not worked out for the Leafs yet. They simply don't have a unit that can match the pace and power of Ottawa's third line. Pinto, in particular, has been fantastic in the last month of the year and the Leafs don't have a similar profile among their depth forwards. If Ottawa's third line can cave the ice in their favour, the Leafs' superstar talent gap won't be as prevalent. 

    Another significant area of improvement for the Leafs on the defensive side of the puck is their confidence when handling the rush. The Colorado Avalanche are the only team that have given them real defensive fits when attacking downhill, which is no surprise, because the Avs strike fear into every rush defense. The Senators are generally a passive team, but their stars have the speed to provide a threat in transition. Tim Stützle has improved his overall game this year, but his bread and butter is still the same. Stützle can fly down the middle and put most blueliners off-balance with his combination of body manipulation and stick-handling at blazing speeds. The Maple Leafs' passive neutral zone forecheck will create challenges for Stützle to make a difference.

    Ottawa's biggest improvement this season was made on the special teams. After being woeful at 5v4 and 4v5 in 2023-24, the Sens took a positive step under Green. While their 23% power play conversion rate is solid, if unremarkable, the Senators continue to draw more penalties than any team in the league. The Sens have led the league in power play attempts for three consecutive seasons through a combination of speed and blatant embellishment (I'm looking at you, Stützle). Toronto's penalty kill has been a weakness, particularly in the weeks leading up to the postseason. If Toronto can force this series to be played at even strength, while getting the most out of their five-forward power play setup, this round could be over in a heartbeat. If they get frustrated and succumb to Ottawa's strong forecheck, the Sens have an obvious route to the second round.

    Both teams absolutely nailed their goaltending dilemma in the offseason. The Senators took advantage of a Bruins team with their pants down by stealing Linus Ullmark. Ullmark has been a fantastic acquisition and a significant upgrade over Joonas Korpisalo. He is second in the NHL in steals (overperfomances of expected goals in a single game). Meanwhile, the Leafs have also turned their crease situation into a strength. Among all goalies, Toronto's Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll rank 4th and 10th in goals saved above expected, respectively (Ullmark ranks 14th, for reference). I would give Ottawa the very slight crease advantage, because Ullmark has a more proven track record as a #1 compared to his counterparts, but Stolarz and Woll are both fantastic options that can step in if the other is struggling. Interestingly, in the Boston-Toronto series last year, Toronto seemed to solve Ullmark much more easily than Jeremy Swayman (they scored 3 goals in his start and failed to crack 3 goals in any of Swayman's games).

    The Leafs have the best record in the NHL in one-goal games this year. Obviously, this is a welcome change from the team's past failures in razor-thin games, but it is realistically a double-edged sword. While Berube's Leafs have plenty of experience holding on in tight games, there also could be some regression to the mean coming. It's possible that their overall record is somewhat inflated by winning so many coin-flip games.

    At risk of jinxing my Leafs yet again, I absolutely think they have the team to advance past the first round for the second time in 20 years. In this case, the Leafs are the far more experienced postseason team. Of the four division winners, the Leafs are probably the most vulnerable to an upset. We often see at least one upset of this magnitude in the NHL playoffs, but I'll save my shocker pick for later, as I think the Leafs will move on here. With a winner behind the bench in Berube, this team seems geared to adapt on the fly, but the Sens present a unique challenge. Most wild card teams don't have a 1-2-3 punch as threatening as Tkachuk-Sanderson-Stützle. At the end of the day, the Leafs have proven capable of losing to much worse teams, but with a philosophical change, I trust this team to get the job done with home ice advantage.

Prediction: Toronto wins in 6 games

Tampa Bay Lightning (A2) vs Florida Panthers (A3)

Carter Verhaeghe gets robbed by Andrei Vasilevskiy (Wilfredo Lee, Associated Press)

    By virtue of Florida's disappointing regular season, the Atlantic Division gauntlet, and Gary Bettman's idiotic playoff format, the two most complete teams in the East are going against each other in Round 1. Florida, the reigning champs, have never exited first gear in a clear effort to save their best haymakers for meaningful hockey. Tampa Bay has gained many plaudits with their play this year (a +75 goal differential speaks for itself), but the Lightning's stats under the hood are significantly more impressive than their actual win-loss record. I believe that both these teams are better than they have shown during the regular season, but there comes a point where you need to win lots of hockey games to be taken seriously. Florida and Tampa are unique cases, because they both have historical evidence to back up their smack talk. In the end, only one Florida team can sneak out of the quarterfinals. 

    The Florida Panthers are a known commodity at this point. They've assembled the most loaded forward group in the NHL at full health with an impressive defensive corps and a two-time Vezina winner between the posts. Though a lot of the attention gets diverted to the goalscoring exploits of Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe, the Cats' greatest strength is their ability to suffocate their opponent with consistent pressure and the most compact neutral zone defense in hockey. As a result of their squad's size, stick handling in tight areas, and defensive personnel, the Panthers shrink the ice to play on their own terms. By contracting on the strong side in all three zones, Florida is able to limit their opponents on the flanks and force high-skill plays in open ice. Their aggressive puck pursuit is geared to take the puck back as quickly as possible. Judging the Panthers on their regular season play in 2024-25 is impractical. We need to go back to their Cup run last year to accurately assess the Panthers' defensive play. Paul Maurice's aggressive D-zone play is perfectly engineered to make opposing forwards uncomfortable, but it all comes down to the Panthers' players to understand their ability to lock down the neutral zone. Aleksander Barkov is, by some distance, the best defensive forward in the world. The line of Brad Marchand-Anton Lundell-Eetu Luostarinen is an absolute nightmare. Gustav Forsling has finally received his flowers as a premier shutdown defensemen in the league. Personally, I'm interested to see Maurice's deployment of Barkov and Forsling. Usually, the two are paired together to completely nullify the opponent's best line. However, Tampa Bay doesn't just have one dangerous line. The signing of Jake Guentzel and Brandon Hagel's emergence gives the team two excellent forward trios. Maurice might trust Barkov to tilt the ice against Tampa's top line on his own, allowing the Cats to match Forsling and Dmitry Kulikov with the Lightning's second line without Barkov's help. 

    The aforementioned top line for the Lightning of Guentzel, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov is the most skilled group in the league for my money. Kucherov continues to build up his reputation as one of the most skilled offensive players in the history of hockey. By the way, here are Kucherov's point-per-game rates over the past seven seasons: 1.25, 1.56, 1.25, 1.47, 1.38, 1.78, 1.57. If there is anybody in the league that can slow him down, Barkov is the ideal candidate, but "Kuch" is essentially guaranteed to score at a point-per-game pace at least. Tampa's top line does its best work off the rush. Point is one of the quickest players in hockey, an absolute bullet train down the middle of the ice. Getting caught on the back foot against Point or Kucherov is a death sentence for any opposing defensemen. The Panthers have had mixed results out of Seth Jones so far, but if there is one area where Jones really struggles, it's skating backwards to defend the rush. Guentzel may not be known for his north-south quickness, but he is unbelievably effective at crashing the net-front area and corralling chances in the slot. Recently, Florida absolutely neutralized the Leafs' rush offense in an astonishingly good effort, but Tampa Bay's top line is especially frightening. I'm writing this piece before the teams play on April 16; that will be a very interesting game, if only to see how Maurice wields his options to limit the Point line in transition. (EDIT: they did a bad job)

    Lightning coach Jon Cooper has been leaning on his second line heavily. The unit of Hagel, Anthony Cirelli, and Gage Goncalves doesn't pose the same threat off the rush as the first line, but they are absolute dogs on the forecheck. The Lightning often send two forwards to cut off the receiver's passing lane and work it out to their own weak side defensemen to load up for a shot or to keep possession. Hagel and Cirelli have been celebrated for a while by attentive hockey fans, but I've gained a ton of respect for Goncalves' game this year. He may not fill the scoresheet, but he's an excellent forechecking option. Similarly to the Panthers, the Lightning swung big at the deadline and picked up a duo from the Seattle Kraken to beef up their third line. Yanni Gourde has been a dream addition, playing up and down the lineup to great success. Oliver Bjorkstrand gave the team a heavy right shot that was particularly useful on the power play, but he might miss the whole first round with a lower-body injury. 

    Considering the depth of their forward group and puck movers on the back end, seeing Florida ranked 13th in the league for goals is a bizarre stat. However, as with their other results, we cannot take these numbers at face value. Tkachuk's importance as a chaos generator cannot be understated. If you know me, you won't be surprised that I'll bring up my Porter Martone rant here again. Matthew Tkachuk is a unique player that can't be compared to every big power forward prospect, because he is so adept at channeling his frame and anger into the perfect blend of a punishing ability on the forecheck. That's the singular skill that makes him such an effective player. Florida aims to overload the strong side corner with pressure in the offensive zone; having Tkachuk to force turnovers, win loose pucks, and dominate battles in the crease is vitally important to the team's offensive structure. The Panthers will be missing Aaron Ekblad's shot threat off the retrieval because of a PED-related suspension for Games 1 and 2, but Jones can cause problems attacking downhill. Though I slandered him a little bit in my preseason predictions article, I have been impressed with Mackie Samoskevich's ability to play all over the lineup. His versatility, stick handling in tight, and shooting skills have been invaluable to Florida, especially considering Verhaeghe has utterly failed to live up to his expensive contract. Veteran coaches, like Maurice, tend to distrust their young forwards with questionable defensive chops. Samoskevich, however, has been a much better running mate for Barkov and Sam Reinhart than Verhaeghe this season. 

    The Lightning were one of only two teams to rank in the top 10 on the power play and penalty kill (interestingly, the New Jersey Devils were the other). Historically, that is a fairly telling harbinger of success. In the team's last 11 series in which they won the special teams battle, the Lightning are 10-1. If their fifth-ranked power play can outscore Florida's twelfth-ranked power play, the Lightning will likely wipe the floor with their opponents. The likes of Marchand and Tkachuk simply can't afford to take stupid penalties after the whistle. With Victor Hedman still dominating as the PP1 quarterback and Kucherov making plays from the right flank, the Panthers should aim to spend as much time as possible at even strength. Though Florida isn't necessarily elite at preventing goals and chances (ranked 21st for expected goals against), they carry a unique threat at 4v5, because of Barkov and Reinhart's ability in transition. The Panthers' "power kill" is tied for second in the NHL for shorthanded goals, led by Reinhart's 5 markers while down a man. With Hedman's foot speed on the decline, I can certainly envision a scenario in which he gets caught as the last man back and the Bolts concede a shorthanded goal. 

    Florida's GM Bill Zito has conducted a masterful retool of the Panthers squad, helping to create a team that went to two consecutive Stanley Cup finals. However, his acquisition of Jones at the deadline struck me as a bit desperate. Firstly, Jones is a very flawed player, even if he can contribute offensively. Secondly, and more importantly, the team gave up a fantastic backup goalie to get him. Once upon a time, drafting Spencer Knight and signing Sergei Bobrovsky in the same offseason seemed like a peculiar decision, but having Knight in the organization was a very useful safeguard for the team. Not only did he seem positioned to take over the reins one day, but he was also able to divvy up Bobrovsky's starts. Bobrovsky's numbers in the regular season have been declining for years now. Although we know he can turn it up in the postseason, as he did last year, he is 36 years of age and he doesn't fit the mould of a traditional workhorse, like his counterpart, Andrei Vasilevskiy. I simply don't love having only Vitek Vanecek as insurance for an aging goaltender. While Tampa Bay's backup, Jonas Johansson, doesn't inspire much more confidence than Vanecek, I trust Vasilevskiy to put in seven excellent performances in the net; I'm not sure I trust Bobrovsky to do so at this point in his career.

    Barring Edmonton-Los Angeles, this series is probably the closest to call. I would consider Florida to be the more daunting opponent, especially at even strength, but with some postseason fatigue, a potentially shaky goaltending tandem, Ekblad's suspension, and a myriad of injuries to the forward group, it should be close, unlike last year, when the Panthers dominated Tampa. Given the Panthers have done an excellent job at letting their star players get proper rest and Tampa has been in a fight for the division title, I’ll pick the team that I still consider to be the cream of the crop in the NHL.

Prediction: Florida wins in 7 games

Washington Capitals (M1) vs Montreal Canadiens (WC2)

Connor McMichael holds off Mike Matheson (Geoff Burke, USA Today)

    The matchup between Washington and Montreal pits two wildly different success stories against each other, one that has managed to prolong its contention window with flawless professional scouting and creative team-building and another that has accelerated its rebuild process by platforming its blossoming stars expertly. Narratively, this series has some obvious parallels to the 2010 series between these two teams, during which an upstart Montreal team knocked off a dominant Washington squad in seven games. Time will tell if history is set to repeat itself.

    After barely squeezing into the 2023-24 postseason, Washington refused to fall into the mandated period of stagnation that accompanies any aging team trying to leave its veterans off on a high note. Team president Brian MacLellan found some bargain bin gems on the fringes of the free agent/trade market last summer, targeting Logan Thompson, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun, and Matt Roy to bolster the options available to Spencer Carbery. In his second season behind the bench, Carbery tinkered with his system and created a monstrous 50-win team. Washington has been a great play-driving team for most of the season, regardless of a bit of PDO luck on both ends of the ice, mainly due to their punishing counter-attack style. Through an emphasis on constant pressure, the Capitals are able to spread their options to the flanks in an atypical 1-3-1 system, with the weak side D (or Alex Ovechkin) activating to the opposite flank to present another shooting threat from the wide areas. One thing that has struck me with the Caps is their ability to prolong offensive shifts with their forecheck in the corners. It helps that they have players like Nic Dowd, Tom Wilson, Andrew Mangiapane, and even rookie Ryan Leonard, all of whom can get the first step on their marker off a rebound chance due to their acceleration. Dubois has been a revelation for this team by providing a dynamic weapon off the rush that Washington did not have last year. Dubois could be a difference-maker by targeting some of Montreal's slower defensemen (David Savard, in particular, is not exactly fleet of foot). 

    The Capitals are unique in many ways, but one quality that differentiates them from traditional contenders is their defensive group. There is not a clear #1 defenseman among the team's personnel, but there are not any obvious holes on the back end either. A main reason for the Capitals' quiet trade deadline was the high barrier of entry into this lineup, especially on D. In the postseason, when series are won or lost if coaches can attack weak points in a roster with the right adjustments, having Washington's wealth of options on the blueline is very useful. Chychrun often acts as a fourth forward in Washington's neutral zone rush offense, but his risky style is compensated for by Trevor van Riemsdyk's steady, stay-at-home game. Roy and Martin Fehervary are excellent shutdown guys, while Rasmus Sandin and John Carlson are efficient and controlled with the puck. Washington's aggressive Box+1 defensive structure should allow them to transition easily through the zones and prevent Montreal from setting up their own defensive coverage. 

    The Canadiens have crept into the playoffs on the back of a remarkable hot streak dating back to when the 4 Nations ended and a top line (Cole Caufield-Nick Suzuki-Juraj Slafkovsky) that has shown no signs of growing pains, emerging as one of the league's most proficient groups. In addition, as the season has gone along, the bottom-six has started to find its groove. Though some of my fellow Leafs fans may deem it heretical, I have some emotional attachment to this Habs team, as somebody who lives in Montreal and has seen the team play live a number of times. While Washington will naturally be a heavy favourite to progress, given their stature as East champs, I sincerely believe that Montreal can fast track their rebuild to an even greater degree with another playoff upset, similarly to the 2010 squad. If so, the top line will be the driving force behind it. Suzuki, in particular, has taken a huge leap, dispelling some concerns about his future as a 1C on an NHL contender. Suzuki plays a very cerebral game, using deft puck touches and a high hockey IQ to open up space for his teammates off the puck. Slafkovsky has been fine as a net-front target man, but Caufield has really improved this year, per my estimation. While Caufield's shot has always been a premier weapon, he has targeted open areas in coverage this year with more conviction, granting even more time to set up his powerful release. 

    Despite Suzuki's drastic improvement, Montreal would not be the team they are today without their generational rookie D-man, Lane Hutson. I'm generally quite progressive with my NHL prospect evaluations, but I've never been able to rate undersized, puck-moving defensemen very high in the draft process, largely because I subscribe to the belief that there is a very thin line between a dominant, sub 6'0 defenseman and a sheltered third-pairing guy. In my opinion, the difference between Adam Boqvist as a prospect and Quinn Hughes as a prospect is smaller than the obvious gulf in quality that their NHL careers would suggest. So, I wasn't convinced by Hutson, particularly after his early NHL career was littered with the mistakes that should be expected out of a 5'7 defenseman. However, I can confidently say that Hutson is firmly in the Hughes bracket, not the Boqvist category. Since being removed from David Savard's pairing and placed on Montreal's PP1 unit, Hutson has been a bona fide superstar. He has added all of the requisite nuances to his offensive game to fool opposing forecheckers. Hutson's ability to activate down low and interchange with Suzuki has unlocked a new dynamic for Montreal's attack. 

    My one major concern with Montreal is their ability to defend the rush. Coach Martin St. Louis employs a 1-2-2 forecheck in the neutral zone, tracking the puck carrier into their own zone. However, some of Montreal's veteran forwards, notably Brendan Gallagher and Christian Dvorak, are losing some speed or were never burners in the first place. Hutson does still have much to improve at closing his gaps against a rush attack, while Mike Matheson and Savard have had their fair share of struggles doing so at points this year. Luckily for them, Washington isn't a particularly rapid team either, but PLD could certainly expose some gaps, as mentioned earlier.

    Rather than spending too much time on the goaltending matchup, which is essentially a dead heat between Logan Thompson and Samuel Montembeault, I'd rather discuss the potential of Montreal's Ivan Demidov, who has been garnering plenty of buzz in recent days. A few days ago, I saw a group of guys all wearing Demidov jerseys before the Russian has even made his official debut. Naturally, I love Demidov's game: he's innately creative and his hands are fantastic. However, I'm definitely a bit more hesitant to proclaim him as the team's saviour right now. He will likely be a star in this league in the future, but his skating stride is still a bit too static for my liking. This will obviously have detrimental effects in his ability to keep up with linemates, but it also comes up in less obvious manners, like winning board battles against Washington's great defensive forwards. He'll be a useful addition, but his defensive warts will probably force him into a more sheltered role to begin his career as a Hab. 

    The injury to Washington's Aliaksei Protas is a big blow for the Caps and Montreal has the talent to trouble the Metro winners. However, I do think this could be a case of too much, too soon for a budding team in the NHL's landscape. I don't believe that Montreal has the depth to pick on Alex Ovechkin and force him into sheltered minutes, given his lack of defensive utility, which is one of the Caps' few concerns. I would draw a parallel between this series and the Washington-Toronto first round in 2017: a young team riding their top talent with the ability to make any game close against an established veteran squad with the proper shutdown options to force depth players to make a difference. However, in the end, I'll pick Washington in a hard-fought one that will be closer than it will appear to be.

Prediction: Washington wins in 6 games

Carolina Hurricanes (M2) vs New Jersey Devils (M3)

Erik Haula and Sebastian Aho at the face-off dot (Josh Lavallee, Getty Images)

    The NHL postseason is a gruelling experience for teams lacking the requisite depth to score goals in case of a serious injury. Although the playoffs haven't even started, the Devils are already at a major disadvantage because of three devastating injuries. Jack Hughes, the team's best player and a top-10 skater in the league, has been ruled out for the season; Jonas Siegenthaler and Dougie Hamilton could potentially return for the series against Carolina, but after missing multiple weeks each, they may be shells of their former selves. Without Hughes, the Devils are an anemic offense that can't hang with the contenders. This puts the Carolina Hurricanes in an enviable position for the first round.

    Despite sparkling analytics during the Rod Brind'Amour era, the Hurricanes have never been remotely close to winning the East and booking a berth in the Stanley Cup Final. Eager to turn over a new leaf, Carolina's GM Eric Tulsky swung for the fences at the NHL trade deadline, dealing a blossoming star in Martin Necas for pending free agent Mikko Rantanen. This audacious gamble failed spectacularly, as Rantanen had no intention of re-signing in Raleigh, so they dealt him again to Dallas to recoup some future assets. While I approved of Tulsky's guts, the Canes' roster is in the familiar position of lacking the world-class talent to be considered a legitimate contender, an issue only compounded by Sebastian Aho's mediocre season. Carolina runs four lines deep at all times, aiming to overwhelm their opponents with relentless pressure on the forecheck. Despite the failure of the Rantanen move, Tulsky has been excellent at finding depth forwards to make up the difference to a certain degree. Trade deadline addition Mark Jankowski has been fantastic as a defensively competent 4C with a heavy shot. The Hurricanes' identity is fundamentally tied to dump-and-chase; given the skating quality of their depth forwards, this strategy is often more successful for them than it is for other teams. All twelve forwards are adept at finishing their routes and making life difficult for opposing defensemen. If New Jersey is unable to get Siegenthaler and Hamilton healthy for the playoffs, this is an obvious pressure point. Carolina can easily target New Jersey's weaker puck-movers, such as Brian Dumoulin and Brenden Dillon, to prolong their shifts in the offensive zone. 

    The stifling forecheck is still a staple of Brind'Amour's style, but Carolina have noticeably taken steps to add dynamism and increase their risk profile in the 24-25 season, particularly by freeing up their defensemen. One of Brind'Amour's more creative decisions was to put rookie Jackson Blake on the top line with Aho and Seth Jarvis. In an admittedly small sample size, that trio has been dominant. With last change in the majority of the games, I expect Carolina to target some of New Jersey's slower depth lines with the Aho line. While Carolina's organized three-high rush attack is still one of the most restricting in the league, their play in the offensive zone is increasingly fluid. The weak side defenseman is encouraged to pressure the slot area and make downhill plays. Brent Burns can still rip it, Sean Walker is an offensively gifted defenseman with a scrappy side, and Shayne Gostisbehere is very creative, but, broadly, Carolina's personnel on the back end doesn't scream "offensive juggernaut." An interesting wrinkle is the signing of Alexander Nikishin from the KHL a week before the playoffs. Nikishin has been lauded for his puck-moving skills, having led the KHL in scoring among defensemen during his stint. His trigger-happy approach could endear himself to Brind'Amour and be an ideal fit for this style in the playoffs. 

    The Devils' 18th ranked offense has been a slight concern throughout the year, but a glimpse at the even strength numbers shows that the situation is actually much more concerning than it appears on the surface. The Devils are 26th in the league with just 144 goals scored at 5-on-5. One of the league's most potent power plays (clicking at an impressive 27.9%) has certainly buoyed New Jersey's offensive game. Their conformist 1-3-1 system is nothing special, but it helps to have Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt attacking down the flanks. With Hughes out for the series, New Jersey's power play might not be a significant advantage, particularly against Carolina's league-best penalty kill. It's much easier to shut down a power play when you're leaving Dawson Mercer open instead of Jack Hughes on the left wing. 

    Though Bratt has continued to prove that he is a bona fide superstar in this league, even in Hughes' absence, New Jersey will need significant contributions from their depth players, who have generally looked overmatched this season. Nico Hischier is one of very few players that have looked competent at even strength since Hughes' injury, which doesn't bode well against a team with Carolina's forward depth. Cody Glass has been a fantastic acquisition, but Stefan Noesen has lost his scoring touch and Ondrej Palat's puck skills leave much to be desired. The offensive burden will be firmly placed on Bratt and Hischier.

    The goaltending matchup is a fascinating one. The Devils gave up some useful assets to get Jacob Markstrom in the offseason, but the move hasn't panned out as expected. Markstrom has fought injuries and been a relatively average NHL goalie on the whole. However, Jake Allen has been absolutely fantastic in a backup role this season. Markstom does his best work when he comes under siege, something that Carolina specializes in, but it's inarguable that Allen has been the most valuable Devils netminder this year. If I were Sheldon Keefe, the Devils' coach, I'd probably give Markstrom the bell for Game 1, but I think the leash should be shorter than some may presume. On the opposite side, Pyotr Kochetkov has been  the starter for most of the season, largely thanks to Frederik Andersen's injury woes. However, Kochetkov has been in a funk for a few weeks. My fellow Leafs fans can think of Kochetkov as a Jack Campbell-esque character between the pipes: he can be brilliant at times, but he gets into his own head often. Andersen is likely to be the Game 1 starter, but "Freddie" has barely played 80 games over the past three seasons. This matchup may have the rare appearance of four goalies in a single series, as each of the available options have genuine causes for concern.

    A fully healthy Devils squad would be a true test for the Canes; they had a stretch in December in which they looked like a darkhorse for the Cup. However, New Jersey is just too banged up for me to pick them here. Jack Hughes would be the best player in this series and his absence will send shock waves throughout the lineup. The Canes should comprehensively outwork their opponents and they have the likes of Aho, Jarvis, and Andrei Svechnikov to put up some points.

Prediction: Carolina wins in 6 games

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs St. Louis Blues (WC2)

Ryan Suter battles with Adam Lowry (Jonathan Kozub, Getty Images)

    If only to further the parallels between this Blues team and the 2019 squad that unexpectedly won the Cup, St. Louis secured a matchup against the Winnipeg Jets in Round 1 again. Much like they did in 2019, this year's Blues fired their coach in November after struggling significantly to begin the season, adopted a new system, went on a 10+ game winning streak, and got white-hot down the stretch to sneak into the playoffs. In 2019, that upstart Blues team lifted the Stanley Cup. Can this team repeat the same feat or will the President's Trophy winners put them in the dust?

    The Jets were the best team in hockey from the first week to Game 82. Despite my initial trepidation after anther disappointing playoff exit (I predicted Scott Arniel to get fired in my preseason predictions...), Winnipeg was absolutely fantastic during the regular season. However, the Jets have consistently underperformed their potential in the playoffs. I've probably said this before, but this iteration of the team feels geared to put the "playoff choker" label to rest. Though the Jets may not have the high-end talent of Colorado or Tampa Bay, this is the most complete group in hockey. Their best twelve forwards, their best six defensemen, and their best goalie make up a perfect roster. In the postseason, teams must identify the weak points in their opponents and apply pressure until the other team breaks. Finding weaknesses is particularly difficult for this well-built Jets team. Logan Stanley has struggled throughout the season because of his lack of agility and tendency to take avoidable penalties, but Arniel has the options to keep him out of the lineup completely.

    After letting go of Rick Bowness, the Jets promoted Arniel from within and ran back the same tactical setup. While this could have completely flopped, it worked out perfectly. Winnipeg was able to build up team chemistry very quickly under the new coach, which is obvious from a brief look at their style. The Jets play a fast, cohesive game, as they look to break down their opponents with crisp passing in transition. The line of Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi perfectly emphasizes this philosophy. They are dangerous on the counter-attack and Vilardi has been a godsend in terms of retrieving pucks if the rush goes awry. With Vilardi battling injury, the Jets' depth forwards will need to step up to handle the dynamism of Zach Bolduc and Jimmy Snuggerud (a Sincere Sports favourite) in the middle-six. Enter Adam Lowry, one of the best matchup centers in the NHL. With his long frame and speed-strength combination, he is a very good point-of-attack forechecker. In general, St. Louis has a good matchup against Winnipeg's forechecking strategy, as the Blues are very good at spotting space in the middle of the ice. The Jets like to force plays into the middle, which helps them dominate against lesser teams, but the Blues have more competent personnel on the breakout than most other teams. Another interesting piece in Winnipeg's bottom-six is Brandon Tanev. After being acquired from Seattle in March, Tanev has been a chaos generator. His nonstop energy and speed has been a crucial addition for this Jets team that was already stacked with useful defensive forwards. 

    After firing Drew Bannister in November with a 9-12-1 record, the Blues instantly pounced to bring in coach Jim Montgomery, one of the most innovative Xs and Os coaches out there. Montgomery was the architect behind the Boston Bruins' 65-win season in 2022-23 and he brought his genius to this Blues team. Montgomery is a pioneering force in the NHL-wide movement to pass up low-danger shots and work the puck into the slot or the net-front area. Aside from Colton Parayko, the Blues generally don't carry a shot threat from the blueline. Instead, they work the puck down low, overload the slot, and look to make the backdoor play. I've seen Jordan Kyrou sneak out of the defender's line of sight to receive a pass in front of goal many times this year. Although Kyrou is a great offensive player, the impetus to break through Winnipeg will fall on Robert Thomas. In my opinion, Thomas is a top three passer in the world. Thomas leads the entire NHL in points since the 4 Nations break with 40. He's the type of player that thrives on the variance that we see in the postseason. During games with razor-thin margins, Thomas can break a game open single-handedly. I don't think Winnipeg has any player that can do so, especially considering Nikolaj Ehlers is expected to miss Round 1 with a lower-body injury. 

    I'm eager to see how Arniel handles Montgomery's north-south offensive game. Generally, the Jets are very aggressive at their own blue line. Their sparkling 5v5 analytics come primarily from the team's ability to pressure entries and take away the play on the flank. Dylan Samberg, Winnipeg's breakout star of the year, has been absolutely fantastic at defending the rush and winning loose pucks against the retriever behind the goal line. His breakout abilities have been a revelation. He'll be tested against the Blues' adaptive forecheck, but he has the tools to be a difference maker for the Jets. The Blues' second line of Dylan Holloway, Brayden Schenn, and Kyrou had been a menace off the rush during the 12-game winning streak, but Holloway is out on a week-to-week basis, which really hinders St. Louis' ability to overpower the second pair of Samberg and Neal Pionk. 

    Against this territorially dominant Jets team, the Blues must continue to play Montgomery's stifling brand of defensive hockey in order to generate as many rush chances as possible. Under Montgomery, the Blues have a much more well-defined hybrid coverage structure, which doesn't place a massive burden on their defensemen. Bannister's DZ system was so taxing on the likes of Parayko and Ryan Suter, which contributed to fatigue. With tired blueliners, your team simply won't have the capacity to put together a competent rush attack. The new system demands the faster of the two defensemen to follow the puck carrier in man-to-man coverage, while the Blues' wily veteran defenders block the pass through the hash marks. The Blues have the fifth best defensive record since the February break, but they have admittedly had a relatively soft schedule during that time. Stopping the 4th-ranked offense will be a different task.

    Although teams should never rely on special teams to generate offense during the postseason, Winnipeg's power play has been a major storyline this season. Its conversion rate of 29.4 was the sixth-highest percentage in NHL history. Lacking the dual threat of Ehlers in the bumper and the tight hands of Vilardi in tight will be a big blow, but Scheifele and Connor are the real problems for the Blues' penalty kill. Though Connor's two-way game is flawed, he is a tremendously accurate shooter off the right flank. Scheifele rotates well on the PP and he can distribute the puck well from anywhere, because he has a strong backhand. I'm interested to see how Cole Perfetti holds up in the bumper role. Perfetti has been very good on Winnipeg's second line this year. After being scratched for the majority of the series against Colorado last season, he figures to play a massive role for the Jets.

    The goaltending duel is going to be a rematch of the 2025 4 Nations Face Off final. In that game, Jordan Binnington of the Blues unexpectedly got the better of Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck, but a best-of-seven is much more indicative of talent than a winner-take-all game. Binnington undoubtedly has the clutch gene. In 2019, he was very good en route to backstopping the Blues to the title. His overtime heroics against the United States will go down in infamy. But there's no denying it: Hellebuyck is the best netminder in the world and he might even be the best player in the world as well. He'll sweep his way to a second consecutive Vezina Trophy, which is impressive, but he's also the betting favourite to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP. He would be the first to do so since Carey Price in 2015 and the eighth goalie to ever win it. He ranks first among qualified starters for goals saved above expected, goals against average, and saves. He ranks second in save percentage to Anthony Stolarz who has played 28 less games. Hellebuyck's astronomically high standards have earned him the reputation of a "regular season goalie," because his playoff stats are rather unsightly. However, I think this is a direct consequence of Winnipeg's struggles as a whole. In the series against Colorado last year, Hellebuyck posted an ugly .870 save percentage, but this doesn't capture the entire scenario. Winnipeg was utterly porous, allowing the Avs to attack downhill with regularity. Hellebuyck was hung out to dry. With a strong defensive group in front of him, I don't expect the playoff struggle narrative to last long.

    The Jets frankly don't deserve a matchup with the NHL's hottest team down the stretch as a reward for their regular season dominance, but there's no point in complaining now. Winnipeg, like Toronto, has faced questions about their mentality in tough situations. With all the talent in the world throughout the lineup, they have the personnel to send the Blues home early. Given their team profile, I believe that the favourites will move on here. Without Holloway, the Blues lose a lot of offensive juice off the rush, which should play into Winnipeg's hands. Though the absences of Ehlers and Vilardi will hurt, the Jets have enough flair to knock off the prototypical darkhorse.

Prediction: Winnipeg wins in 6 games

Dallas Stars (C2) vs Colorado Avalanche (C3)

Matt Duchene takes a face-off against Nathan MacKinnon (Andy Cross, The Denver Post)

    If you are a neutral with no claim to any of these 16 teams, I'd highly recommend tracking the Dallas-Colorado series. These are two bona fide Cup contenders, even in a stacked field. They are both dynamic offensively, ranking fourth and fifth for goals scored, respectively. They each took home run swings on the trade market to chase a championship, as Dallas added Mikko Rantanen, Mikael Granlund, and Cody Ceci, while Colorado acquired Mackenzie Blackwood, Scott Wedgewood, Ryan Lindgren, Jack Drury, Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, and Charlie Coyle. Nevertheless, the biggest reason to turn your eyes to this series is the Rantanen subplot. Colorado shockingly dealt one of the league's premier snipers to avoid losing him for nothing during this summer's free agency period, reportedly because Rantanen did not intend to stay in the Mile High City. After a tumultuous period with Carolina, Rantanen was traded to Dallas and promptly signed an extension with the Stars. Rantanen has plenty of reasons to prove his worth against his former team; Colorado will want to exact revenge against their former superstar for bailing on the team. 

    The Stars are coming off two consecutive Conference Final appearances. In an attempt to go one series further, they pursued Rantanen, adding to an already incredible collection of offensive talent. Dallas uses a unique offensive approach, as they send their three forwards deep to retrieve the puck, aiming to open space for the weak side defenseman and collapse the opposing defensive system. While Rantanen is not the most effective checking forward in the league, he is excellent at spotting the open blueliner through the traffic and threading a needle pass. Though Rantanen will deservedly have the spotlight in this series, he is certainly not the only threat for Colorado to contain. Jason Robertson, after a slow start to the season, has been very good in 2025. Though Robertson is a slow skater, his vision is impeccable and he has shortened up his release to be more threatening on his own. Roope Hintz has been a beacon of consistency for Dallas with his agility and playmaking ability; Hintz has 23 assists in 22 games since the 4 Nations Face Off ended in February. A player that warrants lots of attention is Wyatt Johnston. Given Dallas' unbelievable depth through the middle, Johnston is essentially the team's 3C, leading Jamie Benn and Mavrik Bourque on the wings. Johnston is perfectly suited for playoff-style hockey because of his ability to attack off the rush and enter the zone at will. Johnston has already had his coming-out party, but people forget that he is only 21 years of age; he reminds me a lot of a young Brayden Point. 

    This season, the Stars have had mixed results with the man advantage, ranking in the league-average tier of power play units across the regular season. From my viewings, they are often too passive and overly eager to turn up their noses at shooting opportunities. However, since adding Rantanen, Dallas are scoring at a 28% clip, good for 6th in the NHL. Having the option of a strong shot from the flanks goes a long way to provide instant offense.

    Though Dallas' core can outscore most teams in the league, the Avs have an unmatched fastball: the duo of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar. MacKinnon and Makar each have very credible cases to be top-5 individuals players in the world (for the sake of speculation, I would have MacKinnon at 2 and Makar at 6 in my personal list), yet they only get better when paired together. MacKinnon finished second NHL in the Art Ross race in 2024-25 and Makar was the first defenseman to score 30 goals in a season since Mike Green in 2009. MacKinnon and Makar are some of the dominant downhill attackers in NHL history, blending their elite skating ability with strength and deadly accurate shooting. To beef up the roster around that duo, the Avs were very aggressive during the March trade deadline window. Colorado's deadline moves have worked out perfectly, fitting into the run-and-gun style with aplomb. Marty Necas, the cornerstone of the Rantanen deal with Carolina, has been a revelation alongside MacKinnon. The Arturri Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Necas line has a 67.7 xG%, the third best mark among any trio with at least 200 minutes played together. MacKinnon, Necas, and Makar is probably the best three-man zone entry group in hockey. With their top line on the ice, Colorado causes the opposition's defenders to sag off in order to cut across the lane to the net. Dallas' banged-up defensive group will have a gargantuan task on their hands against those guys. Though the Avalanche's chances likely rest primarily with those three, GM Chris MacFarland addressed a lot of crucial depth questions with trades for Nelson and Coyle. Nelson has long been one of the more underrated forwards in the world. He has very good speed on the rush, is defensively responsible, and can rip the puck on the move. Coyle has looked very competitive every time I've watched Colorado since the deadline. He has an unquantifiable veteran savvy about his persona, but he can also really boost his linemates, especially with his work behind and around the crease. Valeri Nichuskin is an absolute animal off the puck. His nascent acumen playing off skilled players makes him an ideal fit for the team's puck dominant top-six. One of the biggest X-factors of the series will be the health of Gabriel Landeskog. Nobody quite knows what to expect with Landeskog after a three-year layoff, but I, for one, think that getting your captain back in the lineup has a huge psychological role for a team. Even if Landeskog is just an effective third-liner, he'll be a huge boon for Colorado, particularly against Dallas' Marchment-Duchene-Granlund line.

    Despite wielding fantastic groups up front, the Stars and the Avalanche have a few worrying voids on D. Dallas is desperately missing their #1 blueliner, Miro Heiskanen. At his best, the Finn is one of the best matchup defensemen in the NHL, capable of munching up 25-30 minutes every night. However, Heiskanen's status for the series is unclear. He may come back for Dallas, but I'm skeptical that he'll be his usual capable self immediately. Even having a depleted version of Heiskanen for the series would be very helpful for coach Pete DeBoer. Dallas' Thomas Harley, who boosted his reputation significantly after an impressive showing at the 4 Nations tourney, has been good in incredibly tough minutes, but the remainder of the Stars' group on the back end leaves a lot to be desired. Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba are very limited because of their declining foot speed. Cody Ceci's carelessness with the puck at his stick has drawn much malign from NHL fans during the past five years. Holding off Colorado's firepower is a difficult task for anybody; for a depleted and aging Dallas group, it may be impossible. The same concerns could be raised about Colorado's back end. The Devon Toews-Makar pairing is unanimously praised for their shutdown ability on the rush, but the bottom-4 leaves a bit to be desired. Theoretically, Samuel Girard and Josh Manson are the prototypical defensive duo: a smooth-skating puck mover and a cement-footed body mover. However, their even strength analytics over the past two seasons have been disappointing. On the other hand, I've really enjoyed Sam Malinski's game in Colorado's games this year. He is remarkably agile and has some underrated playmaking skills from the back end. He does still fight some inconsistency issues, but I hope that Jared Bender opts for Malinski in the team's postseason lineup. 

    Mediocre defensive groups and elite forward groups spells a massive workload for the goalies in this series. In Dallas' net, Jake Oettinger has enjoyed a very strong season, even as Dallas' possession metrics have suffered since losing Heiskanen. Oettinger ranks 12th in the league among qualified goalies with 16.2 goals saved above expected. Though Oettinger has a strong playoff resume and a history with heavy workloads, I wouldn't be hesitant to turn to Casey DeSmith, one of the best backups in hockey. For reference, DeSmith has saved 14.5 goals above expected in 31 less games than his tandem partner. It could be worth turning to DeSmith in case of a crisis. 

    After a disastrous early stretch from Alexander Georgiev and Justus Annunen, Colorado proved their boldness with a total reset, getting Blackwood and Wedgewood from San Jose and Nashville, respectively. Thus far, having a healthy Blackwood with the experience of Wedgewood in the backup position has been an absolute blessing and a true masterstroke from upper management. This will be Blackwood's first taste of playoff hockey as a starter, though he has not shown any signs of tentativeness in his recent outings. 

    If you're seeking a visual preview of this series, find a re-run of the game between these two clubs on March 16, one of the best games of the year. The Avalanche triumphed 4-3 over Dallas in OT, thanks to a beautiful effort from Cale Makar in the extra frame. Frankly, the boxscore obscures the story of the game, as the Avs were absolutely unstoppable, especially in the first two periods. With their various methods of attack, Dallas simply couldn't stop the relentless wave of pressure from their opponents, but two goals within 20 seconds during the third period helped Dallas push it past regulation. This game perfectly encapsulates the relative strengths and weaknesses of these two teams. Colorado's nonstop pressure is a pain for the Stars to deal with, but Dallas can just as easily flip a switch and turn the game into a track meet. I'll predict Colorado to pull off the slight upset here, especially if Heiskanen misses a majority of the first round. I'l go even bolder and say that they do it quite quickly as well.

Prediction: Colorado wins in 5 games

Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs Minnesota Wild (WC1)

Jon Merrill and Brett Howden (The Associated Press)

    It took a last-gasp goal in the Wild's final game of the season to sneak into the playoffs, where they will be rewarded with a matchup against 2023's Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights. Minnesota had an up-and-down year. By Christmas, they were in the upper echelon of the league, challenging for the NHL's best record with the help of a leading MVP candidate, Kirill Kaprizov. However, the Wild are limping across the goal line after a number of crippling injuries. Vegas, by contrast, has had a shockingly drama-free season by their usual standards. Usually at the top of the headlines for some reason, whether it be LTIR shenanigans or a blockbuster trade, the Golden Knights have been chugging along, leading the Pacific Division the whole way down the stretch.

    After the holiday break, Minnesota looked like a potential division winner, even in the loaded Central. But losing Kaprizov and Joel Eriksson Ek, two of the team's most influential forwards, was a death blow to their chances. Kaprizov and Eriksson Ek are returning in the nick of time for a team starved of offensive spark, but they've only had a handful of games to work themselves into postseason shape. That's not to say they've looked rusty since their respective returns; in their first game back, Eriksson Ek scored four goals and Kaprizov had three points, including the OT winner against San Jose. The Wild have never been known for their offensive juice. At 25th in the league, they rank last among all playoff teams in goals per game (Ottawa is the only other team that isn't in the top 18). Kaprizov's return should ease some offensive concerns. Coach John Hynes' O-zone system is built around maximizing the Russian's abilities. The Wild are below league average in offensive zone time at a measly 41.6%, but Hynes encourages Minnesota to hit back in transition and to make plays on the counterattack. Kaprizov's speed and passing ability are perfectly suited to a rush-based offense. The Golden Knights are renown for their defensive solidity, as they pack the slot area in a passive Box+1 system with an emphasis on nullifying the screener by fronting. Though Vegas' coach Bruce Cassidy is good at making adjustments to his opponents, Kaprizov is a menace if he is given space against passive coverage. Minnesota's Matt Boldy, one of the league's most underappreciated stars, is excellent at dodging checks and drifting into dangerous areas in the slot or in the corner. The Kaprizov-Boldy connection is Minnesota's key to the upset here. I'm also curious to see Gustav Nyquist in this series. Nyquist has been restricted to the perimeter in his Wild stint, as his declining foot speed has constrained his impact. However, Nyquist was fantastic for Minnesota in the 2023 playoffs in a similar environment. Deadline acquisition Justin Brazeau fits the mould of a breakout player in a playoff environment.

    If Boldy is one of the most underappreciated stars in the league, Jack Eichel is surely one of its most underappreciated superstars. Eichel is absolutely surgical with the puck. On the power play, he's a multidimensional threat that can just as easily thread a needle to the open man as he can rip it from the left half-wall. At even strength, he uses his speed and physicality to dominate off the rush. He's also a world-class defensive center who controls 58.6% of the expected goals when he is on the ice against top competition. Vegas took a somewhat risky gamble in the offseason, filling their winger voids with cheap, unproven bets. Some have worked better than others, but the decision was largely successful, owing a lot to the Vegas' quality down the middle. With center depth of Eichel, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, and Nicolas Roy, the team can easily manufacture space for its wingers on the flanks to flex their shots. Vegas is one of the most effective teams at getting their defensemen involved in O-zone play. The Knights seek to collapse a defensive structure with their play on the cycle to open up the high diagonal pass to the defensemen. Teams need to respect the heavy shot threat from players like Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo from the blueline. By taking away passing lanes on the half-wall, Vegas often forces individual brilliance from opposing defensemen to clear the puck. Minnesota has players that can do that, like Jonas Brodin and Brock Faber, but against Minnesota's slower D-men, they'll have no problems cycling the puck. 

    Faber is going to be absolutely critical in this series. Though he is still only 22-years-old, he is the heir apparent to the best defensive defensemen in the league. During the 4 Nations final, against arguably the best forward group ever assembled, Faber was spectacular, controlling shot shares and breaking the puck out with ease, despite needing to play against Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon on most of his shifts. Dating back to the 2023 playoffs, Faber showed up very well, though he only had two games of NHL experience under his belt at the time. Against Vegas' 1-2-2 forecheck, Minnesota will send two defensemen to pressure the retrieval down low. If the Knights player can control the puck and rim it out to the defensemen, Minnesota's D will either chase the puck or spin around and front the forward in the crease. This is a very taxing role. Faber, Brodin, and Jared Spurgeon can certainly do it; I'm less certain about players like Jon Merrill and Zach Bogosian. It's possible that Zeev Buium, recently signed to an entry-level contract, will step in during the playoffs, like Faber did two years ago. Buium is a very intelligent puck-moving D-man that can push the pace of play, unlike some of the Wild's other options. 

    If the Golden Knights have one obvious weakness, it's their 26th-ranked penalty kill. Only Detroit's penalty kill has been less successful since the 4 Nations break. There have been some solid kills since the team acquired Reilly Smith, but it has been a struggle nevertheless. Minnesota's 20th-ranked power play doesn't necessarily strike fear into its opponents, but the process is very good (92.3% xGoals % ranks fifth in the NHL) and Kaprizov's return will add a true playmaking threat on the flanks or behind the net. Unfortunately for the Wild, Vegas' bad penalty kill is still better than Minnesota's PK. The Wild's success rate with a man down is 72.4%, only better than the New York Islanders and the Detroit Red Wings. For a team with a great goalie and a history of strong off-puck play, this is peculiar. However, I think there are some mitigating circumstances that could explain the Wild's problems at 4v5. Firstly, their PK was very passive in the first stage of the season, leading to some easy goals for opposing power plays. This simply won't fly against Vegas' power play, which ranks second in the NHL. However, a tweak in recent months has helped. The Wild have averaged a 79.5% success rate on the penalty kill since March 1, when they opted for a more aggressive 1-2-1 formation. A 79.5% success rate would be 12th in the NHL, a much more respectable number. Having Eriksson Ek back to pressure the D will make a huge difference as well. 

    Minnesota's biggest upper hand in the series is the goaltending situation. Though the send off for Marc-Andre Fleury was awesome to see, Filip Gustavsson is the team's true star in the crease. The "Gus Bus" ranks fifth among all qualified netminders for save percentage on unblocked shots. Gustavsson has been a borderline top-5 goalie this year. On the other side, Adin Hill has been enjoying a career year for Vegas. Though Hill isn't a workhorse goalie, he's been rounding into excellent form. Since February, Hill ranks fourth among all starters in save percentage. Though he has had injury troubles in the past, Hill has been fully healthy all year, which is a good sign. Behind Hill, Vegas has Ilya Samsonov, who has been his usual inconsistent self. If Hill can't continue his form, there isn't an obvious contingency plan. 

    Though I mentioned earlier that the predictions are a superfluous addition to the preview, it is true that the NHL postseason rarely goes chalk. Most of my predictions have been aligned with the betting market and conventional logic, so I'll diverge from my usual standard and pick the upset here. I maintain that a healthy Wild team should not be underestimated. Vegas' lacklustre penalty kill and slightly iffier crease situation is enough to cause some apprehension in their Cup aspirations. Not every upset occurs on merit. Sometimes, a lesser hockey team punches above their weight for two weeks and that's all it takes. Hopefully I won't look too foolish when the Knights sweep Minny in four games.

Prediction: Minnesota wins in 7 games

Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs Edmonton Oilers (P3)

Darnell Nurse battles with two Kings for the puck (Leila Devlin, Getty Images)

    For the fourth consecutive Stanley Cup playoffs, we will get a matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings, in what has been a very one-sided rivalry over the past years. The Oilers are a year removed from almost pulling off a dramatic 3-0 comeback in the Stanley Cup final, while L.A. is hoping to avoid its fourth consecutive first-round exit at the hands of Edmonton. However, there are some reasons to expect that this year could be slightly different. 

    This will be the first series between these two in the 2020s in which the Kings have home ice advantage, a potentially meaningful deviation considering the Kings have been the best home team in hockey. They set a franchise record for home wins in 24-25 and have generally only looked beatable at the Staples Center against non-playoff teams. The Kings have rightfully earned a reputation as a shutdown defensive team, ranking second in the NHL for goals against and a 4th ranked penalty kill to boot. Despite eliminating the 1-3-1 neutral zone system in favour of a traditional 1-2-2, the Kings are very good at stopping the rush because of their elite defensive personnel. Mikey Anderson and Vladislav Gavrikov deserve far more plaudits for their defensive play. Gavrikov, in particular, is possibly the best defensive defenseman in the league if you look at his chance suppression stats. His defensive rating of 11.6 this year is the best in hockey, a full 1.3 points ahead of second-place Esa Lindell. The speed of Connor McDavid, the best player in hockey, and the power of Leon Draisaitl, a leading MVP candidate, are not easy to contain. McDavid has lost time to injury this year, but he still nearly managed to score 100 points in a down season; Draisaitl scored 50 goals for the third time in four seasons. The Draisaitl-McDavid duo down the middle and on the power play is Edmonton's bread and butter. If they are not world beaters in this series, Edmonton will be eliminated quickly.

    An interesting element to watch in this series is how Edmonton's forecheck can pressure the Kings' defensive zone structure. The Oilers' struggles this year have largely resulted from a lack of foot speed on the wings. Though Edmonton has the players to punish defensive breakdowns on the half wall and below the goal line, an organized breakout causes them real problems. The Kings are one of the most well-coached teams in the league behind their net. On the breakout, they will use the width of the ice to their advantage by reversing the puck off the boards. Players like Draisaitl can cause problems for Los Angeles' breakout because of their size and skill on the backhand, but Edmonton's bottom-six leaves much to be desired in that respect. Los Angeles tries to shorten the ice in their own zone by stacking the strong side of the ice with their two defensemen in puck pursuit, which leaves a forward to guard the net-front area. While the Kings have some very good defensive forwards that allow them to pull this off, I wonder if Zach Hyman will have some success in this series by overpowering the net-front forward and deflecting shots on goal. Hyman has really struggled to replicate his goalscoring exploits from a year ago and he is battling an injury heading into the postseason, but he was unstoppable against a similar Kings structure in last year's series, potting seven goals in five games. 

    In the past three instances of this matchup, the Kings have simply been unable to match Edmonton's best. When the Oilers are clicking offensively, L.A. can't score with the same ease. However, the emergence of Quinton Byfield gives them a chance to do so. Byfield is a unicorn in the NHL: a rapid 6'6 center with incredible hands and a phenomenal shot. He has been a nearly point-per-game player since the 4 Nations break. Coach Jim Hiller has experimented with a top line of Kevin Fiala, Byfield, and Adrian Kempe, a fascinating mix of speed and skill. Though Hiller has since balanced his top-six, I'd be surprised if he never turned to that trio to chase a game in the third period. Fiala and Kempe are both excellent shooters that are ideal fits in L.A.'s fast-paced transition game. Edmonton's biggest weakness is its goaltending. Stuart Skinner has been a below average option all season. Skinner's lateral movement is very poor for an NHL goalie. In recent years, the Kings' east-west game has been rather mediocre, giving Skinner a slightly easier task. However, with Byfield's emergence, Kempe's continued excellence, and the creative passing of Andrei Kuzmenko, the team might be ready to give Skinner a potentially insurmountable task in the Oilers' crease.

    The Oilers' blueliners have largely taken a step back as well this year. As a whole, I like the unit, but they haven't performed up to expectations in 24-25. In coach Kris Knoblauch's staggered Box+1 system, the limited foot speed of players like Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard has been a constraining factor. Trading for Jake Walman at the deadline was a deal that I really liked for Edmonton. Not only is Walman an excellent skater that can threaten off the rush, he's also an underrated defensive presence that has been impressive since coming to the team. Ekholm may miss the entire first round series with an injury, so having Walman will be helpful. Brett Kulak is a consistently steadying presence on the third pair. Edmonton's D corps has been ravaged by injuries in the latter half of the season, but they have a fully healthy top-6 that can potentially hold L.A.'s forwards in check. 

    With the Oilers' distinctly average even strength attack, relative to their high standards, this series will probably be defined by the special teams. Edmonton's power play ranks 8th in the NHL, though McDavid's injuries certainly haven't helped. In the 3-2 spread formation on the man advantage, Draisaitl's shot off the strong side flank and Hyman's net-front expertise rely heavily on McDavid's downhill threat and passing ability from behind the net. Also, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been a bit disappointing in the bumper spot on the PP; this needs to change to open up Draisaitl's shot threat from the coffin corner. L.A.'s swarm penalty kill has been typically excellent again this season, operating at an impressive 82% rate. Goalie Darcy Kuemper has been elite in all situations for Los Angeles, but his exploits at 4 on 5 have been downright heroic. He ranks fourth among all starting goalies in goals saved above expected on the penalty kill. On the other hand, the Kings' power play has been absolutely tragic. It is the worst PP unit of all playoff teams (by a non-insignificant margin) at a shocking 16.9%. Despite the obvious firepower of Kuzmenko, Fiala, Byfield, and Kempe, the team doesn't have a clear candidate for the fifth spot on the power play. Anze Kopitar has been decent this year, but his playmaking has declined. Alex Laferriere's release is still too slow to get his shot off against aggressive penalty kills. Sophomore defenseman Brandt Clarke might be the best option at this stage of the season, but he doesn't have the full trust of his coaching staff yet. Over the course of a 7-game series, teams cannot hold McDavid and Draisaitl in check, regardless of the defensive ability of Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle. Thus, L.A.'s power play cannot be a liability; they'll need to unlock the unit's potential to hang with Edmonton's high-flying offense.

    The Oilers are incredibly difficult to judge. They've been ravaged by injuries to their top dogs and underperformance from their depth players. However, I'd still be foolish to pick against McDavid and Draisaitl, both of whom are top-3 players in the world, especially with some legitimate concerns regarding the Kings' offensive production. L.A's play at home should prolong this series, but I expect Edmonton's big guns to make the difference. The Oilers have all the ingredients of a Cup hangover and a team limping into the postseason. However, as much as I try, I can't bring myself to doubt playoff Draisaitl and playoff McDavid.

Prediction: Edmonton wins in 7 games

ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK, NHL EDGE, AND MONEYPUCK
GRAPHICS FOUND VIA THE HOCKEY TACTICS NEWSLETTER AND THE ATHLETIC
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED