The reigning champs (Matias Ocner)
The hiatus is finally over...
As the days grow brisker, a significant sect of Canadians rejoice, for it means that the National Hockey League is looming. The tide upon the seas of change has parted and the fans are left to frantically surf the web to reconnect with the numerous transactions of the offseason. Thankfully, the Sincere Sports guide will provide any outstanding answers, while providing analysis on the 32 teams.
In this article, you will find team previews, divisional standings predictions, a preliminary playoff bracket, and breakdowns on the individual trophy races.
STANDINGS PREDICTIONS
ATLANTIC DIVISION
1. Florida Panthers
The merciless salary cap has not permitted the defending Stanley Cup champions from escaping unscathed after their historic triumph in June. However, retaining the essential members of their core is a success for GM Bill Zito. I've historically been bearish on Florida, but their offensive firepower cannot be matched among any of the Atlantic teams, even if they are due some regression up front.
The Panthers remain a dynamic offensive unit after resigning 57-goal sensation Sam Reinhart during the offseason. Armed with the world's best two-way centre in Aleksander Barkov and superstar right winger Matthew Tkachuk, the Cats will likely fill the net with relative ease, particularly in an Atlantic Division with no clearly elite teams. In the bottom-six, Eetu Luostarinen and Anton Lundell are excellent two-way players and have historically dominated their minutes. At 21 years of age, Mackie Samoskevich should add some proficient puck handling abilities to the Panthers' roster, though I've never loved his off-puck play.
The Panthers have had unprecedented success at developing blueliners. After Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson's departures, they are relying on unproven bets to compensate for the loss. Adam Boqvist is a former eighth overall pick, but his promising build has never translated to professional success. Plagued by offensive inconsistencies, he is now in the most favourable setting of his career. Florida's power play does not necessarily need an elite trigger man, given their offensive skill, but it is reasonable to expect that losing their two power play quarterbacks will be highly detrimental, unless Boqvist can make up the difference. Gustav Forsling is prepared to take the step to bona fide #1 defenseman after his impressive postseason.
In net, Sergei Bobrovsky is fresh off an unbelievable playoff campaign. Despite that, Bobrovsky is less capable of churning out .915 seasons on a regular basis than he once was. With Anthony Stolarz out of the equation, the talented youngster Spencer Knight is ready to resume his career. Despite Knight's history of strong play, he hasn't played at the highest level in 22 months. I am eager to see if Knight is forced into a bigger role than some people expect (Bobrovsky is 36 years old, after all).
Many teams can attest to the difficult task of bouncing back from a Stanley Cup victory. Lord Stanley's hangover has impacted better teams than the Panthers, though their gritty playing style strikes me as surprisingly sustainable, especially with Tkachuk and Barkov up front. With Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett on expiring contracts, this could be the last dance for Florida.
Bold Prediction: Aaron Ekblad will reach 60 points for the first time in his career
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
Up until last year, the Maple Leafs could always be counted on for regular season excellence. However, this team is fresh off their weakest points tally in a full season since Auston Matthews' third year in the league. They have fired their head coach and made a number of expensive veteran acquisitions to prevent their postseason destiny from repeating itself.
Though the Leafs have always been lauded for their offensive skill, their miserable offensive performance against Boston in their latest first round failure has created the most skepticism in Toronto in a while. Nevertheless, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner are each capable of scoring 100 points during the regular season. John Tavares is no longer the captain, but he has scored at a 34-goal rate since arriving in Toronto. In his contract year, Marner is the Atlantic Division's biggest enigma. Despite the star forward's disappointing season in 23-24, Marner led the playoffs in slot passes per game. He is highly motivated to work towards the best performance of his career. The Leafs have plenty of depth forward options to carry water, though Craig Berube has been very experimental during preseason. I fail to see how Steven Lorentz, David Kampf, and Ryan Reaves is their best fourth line combination, though it should be a source of the physical play that Berube stresses. At 35 years old, Max Pacioretty will be asked to provide complementary offense, a standard that he may struggle to satisfy. There are some possible success stories up front, though. Neither Matthew Knies nor Nick Robertson blossomed into star contributors last season, but another year of development could do wonders for the pair. Knies, in particular, will be asked to shoulder a heavy burden on the top line.
Brad Treliving's ultimate goal has been to solidify Toronto's defensive depth. While I can certainly question the value on the contracts that were handed out, it is hard to deny that Berube has a solid set of options at his disposal. Chris Tanev was rewarded handsomely (a little too handsomely) for his late career resurgence and he should become a staple of the Leafs' top pair with Morgan Rielly. Tanev has been one of the best pure defenders in the league recently, crucially on the penalty kill. He will be the best defender that Rielly has ever played with, but at 34, a drastic decline cannot be ruled out. Jake McCabe has been a revelation for the club; he should dominate the second pair minutes that he is given. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Simon Benoit should be decent contributors, but as always, the Leafs would really love for Timothy Liljegren to finally take the advertised step forward. Liljegren has been mired in trade discussions throughout the offseason, but his potential should theoretically take him above Philippe Myers, Conor Timmins, and Jani Hakanpää in the depth chart.
For the first time since James Reimer's world-class 2013 season, goaltending appears to be a major strength for the Leafs. Joseph Woll is the organization's best homegrown netminder in a decade. Woll has excellent lateral movement and is as cool as a proverbial cucumber. If he can play 40-50 games, he will be the spearhead of a potentially great tandem. Reigning Cup champion Anthony Stolarz was fantastic last year, saving 21.7 goals above expected in 27 games. While Woll and Stolarz are talented goalies, they have been plagued by injuries during their careers. Young Dennis Hildeby may be forced into action at some point.
Any team with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander should realistically not be worried about making the playoffs, but uncertainty is rife. I believe they have improved where it counts, but we will not know until April. Change for the sake of change is a dangerous theory to stake your chances on, but we are past the point of rationality with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Bold Prediction: Mitch Marner will score at least 15 more points than William Nylander
3. Tampa Bay Lightning
It would be astonishingly foolish to rule out Tampa Bay's vast array of star talent. However, when the Bolts won their consecutive Stanley Cups, they were armed with arguably the best third line in the league. In Erik Cernak, Jan Rutta, and Kevin Shattenkirk, they had plenty of capable veteran defensemen. 2024's iteration remains insanely talented up front. However, there is a significant lack of quality depth options on the roster.
Nikita Kucherov is an unstoppable talent. His puck handling is phenomenal, he has a high offensive IQ, and he is the second most productive NHL player of the last decade (after Connor McDavid). Brayden Point has averaged 48 goals in his past two seasons and packages it with robust physicality. After losing their franchise player, Steven Stamkos, in free agency, Tampa Bay secured a fantastic upgrade in Jake Guentzel. A Guentzel-Point-Kucherov line has all the makings of the league's best trio. Winger Brandon Hagel is possibly the most underrated two-way talent in the league. Down the middle, Nick Paul and Anthony Cirelli are enviable depth options at centre. After that, it gets ugly. There are a few reclamation projects that could help the Lightning compete for the Atlantic crown, but if GM Julien BriseBois doesn't hit on the likes of Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons, it could get ugly. Conor Geekie, acquired in the Mikhail Sergachev trade, is worth monitoring, but he's closer to a tantalizing size-skill package than a true contributor at this stage of his career.
The biggest reason for skepticism in the Sunshine State is keeping the puck out of the net. Outside of Hagel and Cirelli, Tampa Bay is hardly filled to the brim with shutdown forwards. Kucherov is a huge defensive liability. Earlier in his career, Point had the makings of a fantastic two-way threat, though he has ceded his defensive contributions for goalscoring. More worrying is the fact that Victor Hedman has been increasingly poor at even strength in his old age. Coach Jon Cooper will have to be very creative to maximize the Swede. After reacquiring Ryan McDonagh from Nashville, they have more options. Nevertheless, even though McDonagh is a borderline Hall of Fame player, I would hardly feel comfortable pinning my shutdown hopes on a 35-year-old with poor foot speed. Erik Cernak, Darren Raddysh, Janis Moser, and Nick Perbix have somewhat compelling cases to pair with Hedman, though they are flawed players.
Luckily, goal prevention comes down to more than the skaters. Between the pipes, Tampa boasts the great equalizer, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Over the last decade, it is hard to think of a more consistently excellent goalie in the NHL. Despite that, Vasilevskiy, like Hedman, is not exactly aging gracefully. His worst two seasons since the 15-16 season have taken place in the last two seasons. He has struggled with health as well; 'Vasy' is no longer capable of a fantastic 60 starts. To compound those woes, Jonas Johansson is not the most inspiring backup option out there. If injuries are the sole cause of Vasilevskiy's downturn in form, it is possible that he can step up and deliver a Vezina-caliber season.
As can be expected from a team with high-end talent, there is a lot of boom-or-bust potential with the Lightning. If their stars can light it up, this is a sleeper Cup bet. If Hedman's downward decline grows steadier, the playoffs could be a tricky ask. In the end, I'm expecting a balanced middle ground in line with their previous seasons.
Bold Prediction: Jake Guentzel will fail to crack 80 points
4. Buffalo Sabres
The Sabres have been on the verge for eons, but this surely has to be their breakthrough. In the 22-23 season, the Sabres were 3rd in league offense. Last year, they were 22nd in scoring. Despite this dramatic drop-off, Buffalo missed the postseason by a measly seven points. The Sabres didn't exactly set the world alight in the offseason, but it is clear that they are relying on internal improvements to make up the difference. Personally, I think that is a wise decision.
Though the Lindy Ruff era ended on a sour note in Jersey, Ruff has a reputation as a sage offensive coach, having helped the likes of Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt take significant leaps. It shouldn't take a genius to understand that Buffalo's best course of action is committing to utilizing their offensive talents as much as possible. The biggest beneficiary of the Ruff era should be Tage Thompson, a highly skilled unicorn who struggled mightily last season. A wrist injury seemingly halted his rapid progress to superstar status. If Thompson can find his form once again, Buffalo will have a perennial 40 goal scorer in their ranks. Alex Tuch scored 14 less goals last season than he did the previous year. Dylan Cozens had future captain material written over him, but he regressed mightily as well. Those three players should realistically be in All-Star conversations, but that failed to materialize. The unfulfilled talent doesn't end there. Sophomore Zach Benson was the second youngest player in the league last year and didn't look out of place at the professional level. JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn are high-upside wingers who could easily flirt with 60 points. Their biggest offseason move, a trade for the Oilers' Ryan McLeod, solidified their middle-six with a fantastic forechecker and adept penalty killer.
Realistically, Buffalo's playoff chances rest firmly in the hands of their two best defensemen, Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin. Power and Dahlin are nothing but an enticing display of raw talent. Power's zone exit data is scintillating, though adding some physicality to his game couldn't hurt. They are both capable of drastic steps forwards. Together, they could theoretically make up the best pairing in the world. After that, it gets a bit grimmer, but ex-Avalanche phenom Bowen Byram has a huge opportunity on his hands. Matias Samuelsson is a capable shutdown blueliner who may liberate Byram's playmaking chops. Henri Jokiharju and Connor Clifton were not great last season, but they both have a history of decent chance suppression analytics.
Goaltending has emerged into a strength for the Sabres. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was one of the league's most inspiring success stories in 23-24. If that's a sign of things to come, rather than an outlier, Buffalo has a great safety blanket to keep the team's floor high. Devon Levi needed more conditioning than expected, but after an AHL stint, he looks highly motivated to challenge Luukkonen for the starting gig. Two hungry goalies pushing each other for starts is the ideal tandem in the modern hockey landscape.
Granted, this prediction requires a fair bit of optimistic projection, but the Sabres have always struck me as the first of the Atlantic's dregs to break through and make a dash for April hockey. In-house improvements will be necessary, but are hardly unlikely.
Bold Prediction: Jack Quinn will lead the team in scoring
5. Boston Bruins
Most NHL pundits have been rooting on the Bruins' ultimate demise for a few years now, so my general negativity should come as no surprise. Unlike Buffalo, a young team that has never managed to take that step, Boston are an aging team that have remained relevant against all odds. The historically good 22-23 Bruins roster has been ravaged by the free agent market and retirement, to the point that this team is weak on paper. We shall see if coach Jim Montgomery can work any more miracles with the withered shell of the record-breaking squad from two years ago.
I shall not mince words: David Pastrnak is easily Boston's most important player. Though the Bruins have some decent players in their forward corps, Pastrnak is the only game-breaking talent that Boston can consistently ice. Despite a drop in his shooting percentage, Pastrnak was predictably fantastic in 23-24, developing his playmaking skills significantly. If 'Pasta' cannot reach 100 points, 5th in the division may be an optimistic prediction. Brad Marchand should still be a good player, especially in a reduced role. He provides good playmaking instincts, though his foot speed might make it difficult to shine at even strength. Boston's X-factor will be free agent signing Elias Lindholm, who fits the bill for a traditional Bruins forward. However, Lindholm's on-ice impacts have declined significantly. If Lindholm can return to his Calgary Flames level of production, this will be a home run that takes a major burden off Pastrnak's shoulders. Pavel Zacha is a decent physical presence, who will likely be shoved out to the wing this year. Trent Frederic is one of my personal favourite bottom-sixers in the league. His niche as a budget power forward will earn him more plaudits this season. The Bs would love to see youngster Matthew Poitras build on elements of his promising rookie season. Poitras is a smooth skater with a penchant for a slick pass, but the NHL seemed to figure him out as last season wore on.
Like with Pastrnak and their forward corps, there will be a huge reliance on Charlie McAvoy to keep a much-changed defensive unit at the top of their games. While Bruins management finally signed Jeremy Swayman to an expensive deal, losing Linus Ullmark could expose some holes in Boston's defensive depth. Outside of McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Nikita Zadorov, Boston doesn't exactly scream "shutdown roster." A bad season from Zadorov could really sink Boston's chances. Zadorov is a physical presence who posted sparkling analytics in the postseason, but his transition defense is nothing to write home about. 23-year-old Mason Lohrei was a good contributor against Toronto in the first round; if that continues, many of the Bruins' issues will be rectified.
It is genuinely difficult to encapsulate the downgrade from Linus Ullmark to Joonas Korpisalo in the crease, but I'll give it a shot. Ullmark finished 7th among all goalies last year with 14.8 goals saved above expected. Korpisalo was 97th (second last in the league) with -16.1 GSAx. A better defensive system should balance those results, but if Swayman can't take the starter's reins, this situation could get ugly. Luckily, Swayman looks to be the real deal. If he can be well insulated, his workload should keep him in Vezina consideration.
I'll admit that it isn't the bravest prediction to say that an aging team with a lack of star power might disappoint this season, but occasionally, the safest decisions are the smartest ones. Unless Pastrnak and McAvoy can post MVP seasons, I struggle to see how Boston can replicate their performance from last year.
Bold Prediction: Mason Lohrei will lead all Bruins defensemen in scoring, yet will average less time on ice than he did last year
6. Ottawa Senators
The Atlantic Division lacks a truly dominant team at the top, but there is no shortage of competitive middling rosters in the fold. The Senators theoretically have the talent to break that mould and emerge in the Eastern playoff race, I still see them finishing on the outside looking in.
It's always important to take the label "future contender" with a grain of salt, because the NHL landscape rarely stays stagnant. Not too long ago, it seemed like Alex DeBrincat was Ottawa's next 50 goal star, Tim Stützle would be an MVP candidate, and Josh Norris would be a bona fide 2C. DeBrincat is now in Detroit, Stützle scored just 18 goals last season, and Norris' injury woes have cursed his future outlook. That is not to say that all is bleak for the Sens. After coming back from a gambling suspension, Shane Pinto was genuinely fantastic in the second half. For a team that struggled to prevent scoring chances, his 57 xGF% was relatively astounding. The hope is that Pinto can attract some of the attention from Stützle to allow the German to flash his world-class skill. Going into his fifth full year, Stützle is possibly the most obvious breakout candidate in the NHL. A skilled puck-carrier with lightning-quick reflexes, I can see him breaking the 90 point barrier with ease. Brady Tkachuk's signature package of ruggedness and skill rivals his brother Matthew's ability, mainly because it is so hard to knock Brady off the puck. Claude Giroux has proven to be an adept partner on Ottawa's top line; his playmaking has helped the ex-Flyer age gracefully. One of Ottawa's most interesting offseason bets was Michael Amadio as a middle-six winger. Waived by Toronto, he then became a solid contributor with Vegas, before signing with the Senators. Amadio has all the minerals to be a prominent member of coach Travis Green's checking line.
Time will tell if ending the Jakob Chychrun experiment was smart. Chychrun led Ottawa's D-men in points last season; given Chychrun was replaced with defensive stalwart Nick Jensen, Chychrun's 41 points from the back end will have to come from somewhere. On the brighter side, Jensen should liberate the offensively gifted Thomas Chabot to get back to playing his best hockey. If Chabot can stay healthy, he is a prime candidate to pick up the slack in the puck-moving department. However, the true gem in this group is Jake Sanderson, a third-year player who has continued to improve every single season. Sanderson has the defensive chops to command a shutdown pair and he happens to be one of the best puck-moving defensemen in the league, not just among his age bracket. Artem Zub plays a safe, stay-at-home brand of hockey that complements Sanderson's ranginess well. A Sanderson-Zub pair is clearly effective; Chabot-Jensen have much to prove.
The biggest reason for renewed optimism is Ottawa's vastly improved crease situation. Boston's loss was Ottawa's gain, as GM Steve Staios took advantage of Jeremy Swayman's contract demands to bolster his goaltending tandem. Getting rid of Joonas Korpisalo is addition by subtraction, but replacing him with a former Vezina winner in Linus Ullmark is quite savvy. Naturally, Ullmark will be tested much more in the nation's capital, but that doesn't change the fact that he has been a top-10 goalie in the NHL over the past two campaigns. Ullmark could make this prediction look silly.
In the end, I expect Ottawa to be competitive until the end. They'll push for a wild card berth valiantly, but will eventually be forced into the role of anti-hero in the East playoff race. Frankly, their depth does not conform to the usual profile of a team that can successfully get through the gritty spring days.
Bold Prediction: Jake Sanderson will finish in the top-5 in Norris Trophy voting
7. Montreal Canadiens
After revitalizing their pipeline with Ivan Demidov and David Reichenbacher, it seems that Montreal are stuck in the weird purgatory that strikes teams after the first few years of a rebuild. The Habs aren't good enough to compete for a playoff spot nor bad enough to get a high draft pick without a spot of lottery luck. However, with Martin St. Louis hoping to instill a winning mentality rather than preaching futility, the Canadiens will make their games competitive, for better or worse.
As Demidov continues his development in Russia, I'm unconvinced that Montreal is rife with the star quality that a middling team needs to compete for a playoff spot. Centre Nick Suzuki established himself as a franchise cornerstone with a career-best 77 points in 23-24. If he can take the leap to a point-per-game average and maintains good defensive impacts, it will solve many future issues for the Canadiens' roster. Unlike Suzuki, pint-sized dynamo Cole Caufield didn't show significant improvements (he fell from 0.57 goals per game to 0.34). Regardless, Caufield looks to have honed his passing ability and a full training camp of power play training should help Montreal improve from their pathetic 17.5% in 23-24 (though an 0/30 performance in preseason does not inspire any confidence). Another player who should benefit from simple improvement with the man advantage is Juraj Slafkovský. Slafkovský's second-half improvement last year was a dream result for the Montreal faithful. He is a prototypical power forward who continues to improve. Things fade significantly after that. Patrik Laine's injury will not help, but he was never likely to drive play in the offensive zone. Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach are good players, but until Laine returns, they'll have to hope Joel Armia's career-best season in 23-24 was not a fluke. With Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson on their last legs, it will be the responsibility of the likes of Joshua Roy and Alex Barré-Boulet to step up to the plate.
Having made no acquisitions on the back end, GM Kent Hughes is clearly trusting in his incumbent defensive core. Kaiden Guhle will again be asked to soak up tough minutes, but he should be even more physically mature this season. Guhle will likely be paired with Mike Matheson again, a man who has floated and never sank, despite probably not being a number one defenseman in the world's best hockey league. The X-factor on the back end is Lane Hutson. While I will admit that his relentless propaganda campaign is getting a bit tiring, he brings a puck-moving element that will be new to Montreal's defense. His second gear acceleration is already good enough for the league, which should make up for his measly 5'9 frame. It appears that Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron are capable of making up a decent third pair, but neither of them has broken the 60-game barrier in their respective careers. Reichenbacher may be forced into minutes earlier than expected as a result.
Goaltender Samuel Montembeault has been one of the Habs' biggest recent success stories. On his game, Montembeault can steal a game. Ideally, he'd be protected by an actual shutdown D, but it's not unreasonable to expect Montembeault to break the .905 SV% for the first time in his career. Cayden Primeau has been a career AHL goalie, but he is a former Mike Richter Award winner for college hockey's best netminder.
Laine's return from injury, along with a dynamic first line, will make Montreal an intriguing team to watch this season, but I fail to see how they will realistically challenge for a wild card spot.
Bold Prediction: Juraj Slafkovksý will finish in the top-10 in the NHL for shots on goal
8. Detroit Red Wings
The Yzerplan has had its moments, yet there are still plenty of reasons for skepticism. Lots of money has been spent, emphasizing Steve Yzerman's ambition to transform the Red Wings, but inconsistency has always plagued this club. After having arguably gotten worse in free agency, it is hard to envision a situation where this uninspiring team can climb out of the cellar.
The Wings were a very good offensive team last season. Oddly enough, they scored more regular season goals than the Florida Panthers, who eventually won the Stanley Cup. Their biggest success story was Lucas Raymond, who took a major step forward in his third full season. In his last 18 games of the season, Raymond potted 12 goals and 7 assists, operating at above a point-per-game pace. Captain Dylan Larkin scored a career-high 33 goals, despite only appearing in 68 games. Larkin is Detroit's best forward and the Wings will struggle if that isn't the case. Alex DeBrincat seemed to be on pace for franchise player trajectory after a scorching hot start to last season, but his numbers faded significantly in the second half. Their biggest reinforcement up front was the signing of Vladimir Tarasenko, who adds a secondary weapon that Detroit didn't have last year. Yzerman will have to hope that Tarasenko can be as big a revelation as Patrick Kane was last season. With 47 points in 50 games, excellent work in transition, and a shocking improvement on defense, Kane was a massive part of Detroit's great power play. Bringing in Erik Gustafsson, who has carved out a nice niche as a dominant third-pair defenseman should also help with his booming wrist shot on the man advantage. Lower in the roster, Michael Rasmussen, Jonatan Berggren, and Joe Veleno are going to need to push on from disappointing seasons. Rasmussen, in particular, is a raw talent that could be very good in limited minutes.
The defensive core is easily Detroit's biggest weakness. Led by young German star Moritz Seider, things look a lot bleaker after Seider in the depth chart. Seider's analytics aren't overly flattering on the eye, but his defensive partners have never exactly helped him excel. He is very talented on the offensive end, but he isn't a pure shutdown player at this rate of his career. After trading Jake Walman for pennies on the dollar, there will be a lot of pressure on rookie Simon Edvinsson to seize a major role on the blue line. I'm a huge Edvinsson fan and I'd be shocked if he didn't displace Ben Chiarot on the top pair by the All-Star break. Regardless of how much I appreciate his game, thinking that Edvinsson can take like a duck to water and play top pairing minutes immediately seems to be a rather odd concept to pin your season's hopes on.
The Wings have arguably the weirdest goaltending situation in the league. Ville Husso, Cam Talbot, and Alex Lyon are all decent tandem goalies, but I wouldn't trust any of them to seize the starter's role. They each have their cases (Husso has been bad with Detroit, but has a .919 season on his CV with St. Louis; Talbot was perfectly respectable with L.A. last season, but is 37 years of age; Lyon was Detroit's best goaltending option last season, but is realistically a 1B at the NHL level). Off the basis of last year's performance, it seems that Talbot and Lyon will be Detroit's crease duo, but Husso is probably their most naturally gifted netminder.
The Red Wings seemingly overperformed last season, but with an uncertain situation between the pipes and awful penalty kill personnel, I doubt that this team can outscore their problems unless they can make a massive trade.
Bold Prediction: Somebody other than Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, or Lucas Raymond will lead Detroit in points
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
1. Carolina Hurricanes
The Metro's top three teams have a realistic shot of taking the divisional crown this year. Given that Carolina's roster was ravaged by free agency, the Hurricanes are not going to be a regular season powerhouse. However, there is plenty of ability in the roster for coach Rod Brind'Amour to extract. It's easy to forget that the Canes had 111 points last season. Even if they struggle to replace Jake Guentzel, Brady Skjei, and Brett Pesce, they are not going to fade into irrelevance.
The Hurricanes are relying on internal improvements to make up the difference of their numerous losses. The two most likely candidates for that are Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. Svechnikov and Jarvis have shown plenty of promise during their NHL careers, but they will need to be point-per-game players for Carolina to remain contenders. Svechnikov's offensive instincts in the slot have the makings of a 40-goal scorer; Jarvis is a defensive workhorse with a clean set of hands. If either of them can develop into bona fide stars, Sebastian Aho will have less of an offensive burden to carry. Guentzel was fantastic at attracting attention away from Aho, allowing the Finn to flex his playmaking muscles. Another potential breakout player is Martin Nečas. Two years ago, Nečas had an offensive explosion, scoring 71 points in 82 games. Last season was a significant downgrade in the production department, but if he can flirt with 30 goals and 70 points, Nečas would be the ideal fourth wheel up front. As you'd expect from a team with an inherently careful identity, the rest of Carolina's forward group is overflowing with two-way maestros. Jordan Staal is always in the Selke race, Jordan Martinook is an effective shutdown winger, and new addition William Carrier is a relentless forechecker that suits Brind'Amour's style to a tee.
For as productive as Guentzel was, losing Skjei and Pesce was the true gut punch for the Canes. It isn't going to trouble their top pair of Jaccob Slavin and Brent Burns. Though Burns' foot speed continues to decline, Slavin-Burns is an excellent defensive duo. Slavin is Carolina's backbone; he is a chance prevention machine with elite on-ice metics. Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield will be pushed up to the second pairing following the exodus. Orlov is a fantastic player that has historically dominated against lighter competition. If he can lead the pair with Chatfield, this team will be able to forget about Pesce and Skjei. They've brought in two offensively-oriented blueliners in Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere to dominate bottom-pair minutes. Walker wasn't excellent in Colorado, but as a Philadelphia Flyer, in a system more akin to the Canes', he emerged as one of the league's most underrated rearguards.
The Canes' misfortune between the pipes is reaching historic levels of brutality. Frederik Andersen has averaged 36 games over his past 5 seasons, most recently suffering from a blood clot. It seems that the starter's job might fall on the 25-year-old Pyotr Kochetkov, who has continuously improved. He seems set to be a starter in this league, but with Andersen's health issues, Kochetkov will almost certainly have to start 50+ games, something he has never done. I wouldn't rule out some more games for ex-waiver claim Spencer Martin.
Losing so many impact players can have a psychological impact on the roster. But Brind'Amour has helped the Canes ease through many issues. There is too much talent on the roster for Carolina to be uncompetitive.
Bold Prediction: Dmitry Orlov will finish in the top-10 in Norris Trophy voting
2. New York Rangers
Fresh off a Conference Finals appearance, the Rangers are essentially returning the same team with a few minor tweaks. Time will tell if that was their best course of action.
The Rangers' even strength results have always been a bit deceiving. They have the talent to fill the net, but they don't control play to the same degree as the likes of Carolina, Boston, or Florida. Thankfully, the Rangers are armed with a very talented group of players in their top-six. Artemi Panarin proved that he warrants the superstar label, following a brilliant 120-point season in 23-24. Panarin is one of the league's top three passers and Peter Laviolette's tinkering has placed the Russian stud in an ideal position to produce points. Centred by Vincent Trocheck and flanked with Alexis Lafrenière, the Rangers can ice one of the league's best lines. Lafrenière has finally become the former first overall talent that he was promised to be. He is one of the best transition threats in hockey and his playmaking is unrecognizable from his rookie season. In the Rangers' postseason run, Lafrenière arguably looked like New York's best player. It will be interesting to see if that trend can continue. Veteran Chris Kreider is a dominant net-front presence that adds a very useful element to the Rangers' power play system. Mika Zibanejad posted his worst season in 6 years in 23-24. Trocheck should theoretically be a boon to Zibanejad; however, considering Trocheck is an offense-first centre, an unfair defensive burden will be placed on Zibanejad, Kreider, and new acquisition Reilly Smith. Smith is a good defensive winger, so he seems to be the type that could help that line dominate their even strength minutes. I'd put a sizeable bet on the Rangers being active in the trade market to revitalize their bottom-six. Filip Chitil grades out as an above average third-liner and Will Cuylle is growing into his role as a gritty winger. Other than that, the Rangers had better pray that Kaapo Kakko still has a tiny bit of unseen potential left to squeeze out.
Outside of perennial Norris Trophy candidate, Adam Fox, the Blueshirts' defensive depth is rather uninspiring. Ryan Lindgren is a good fit alongside Fox, as he brings the stay-at-home presence that allows Fox to join the play going forward. But Lindgren has only played over 70 games twice in his career and he will start the season on the injured reserve. Lindgren's injury only exposes the Rangers' lack of defensive depth. Zac Jones has some offensive skill, but he should realistically be confined to sheltered third-pair minutes. K'Andre Miller has been a hipster's breakout pick for a couple of years now, but I'm beginning to think that his future at the NHL level is closer to a great 3/4 D than a shutdown top-pairing blueliner. Miller has the skating ability and active stick to prove me wrong, though. New York's captain Jacob Trouba has faced a lot of recent controversy for his dangerous physical altercations over the months. At the end of the day, if Trouba can be an effective captain, complaints will lessen, but he posted a -2.3 defensive goals above replacement last season.
Igor Shesterkin is almost unanimously considered the best goaltender in the league. Given his unmatched consistency throughout his career, this is a reasonable assumption. But Shesterkin is two years removed from the Vezina Trophy season that earned his reputation. In the last two years, his .913 and .916 save percentages have been far more human. Considering the Rangers have always struggled to control play at 5-on-5, Shesterkin will have to be closer to perfection than he has been to secure a Stanley Cup for the Rangers. Luckily, his backup, Jonathan Quick, had a major bounce back season in 23-24 with a very acceptable .911 save percentage.
2025 could be a Cup-or-bust season for the Rangers, especially because Panarin isn't getting any younger. This will be an interesting bridge year for the Rangers. It seems somewhat possible that the Rangers could regress this year, especially because they usually linger around the middle of the league for even strength analytics. Luckily for them, I trust in the existing talent on the roster and the ambition of GM Chris Drury.
Bold Prediction: Kaapo Kakko will finally be traded at the deadline
3. New Jersey Devils
After a 112-point season in 2022-23, the Devils seemed to be ready to take over the league. They had all the hallmarks of a contender in the long-term. But deplorable goaltending, poor coaching, and injury woes doomed them to a shocking seventh place in the Metro. With a clean bill of health, a historically good regular season coach behind the bench, and a new presence between the pipes, the postseason is the expectation in the Garden State.
On paper, the Devils have one of the most dynamic offensive cores in the league, but a myriad of factors have prevented the full realization of that potential. New coach Sheldon Keefe did not achieve any meaningful playoff success in Toronto, but during Keefe's tenure, the Leafs ranked second in the league for goals scored. With the Devils' array of weapons, that trend should continue. Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier have the pedigree to the best 1-2 centre group in the league, but neither of them set the world alight in 23-24. By basic predictive trajectory, Hughes and Hischier are naturally going to be better this year. Hughes might challenge for the Art Ross trophy and he seems like a surefire candidate for 90 points. One player that wasn't a disappointment was Jesper Bratt. Bratt broke the point-per-game barrier for the first time and it looked sustainable under the surface. Timo Meier failed to live up to expectations on his first full season in Jersey, but a player of his caliber should realistically score 30 goals with ease. There are the makings of a good checking line in Ondřej Palát, Erik Haula, and Stefan Noesen. One of Keefe's memorable moments of genius in Toronto was his deployment of Michael Bunting. A possible candidate for the Bunting role is ex-Vegas Golden Knight Paul Cotter. Cotter is responsible defensively and a clever offensive player who does a lot with a little.
Losing their #1 defenseman, Dougie Hamilton, was a killer blow to the Devils' chances last season. Hamilton is an elite puck mover that facilitates play in the offensive zone and on the power play. However, Hamilton is a below-average defender, so he should not have to shoulder heavy minutes again. Jonas Siegenthaler could be a decent partner for Hamilton, but he was awful in his most recent showings. There's a lot of pressure on Hamilton to resurrect the dead remains of his former partner. Luckily, GM Tom Fitzgerald identified the need for defensive solidity with the signings of Brendan Dillon and Brett Pesce. Dillon and Pesce have been stabilizing forces on their respective teams for half a decade. Neither Dillon nor Pesce are fresh off their best seasons, but they will shore up the team. The Devils' biggest X-factor is sophomore rearguard Luke Hughes. Hughes was a weapon in transition during his rookie season; he should clean up his off-puck play this season.
Jacob Markström has been earmarked as the solution to New Jersey's horrific goaltending issues. Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid did nothing to stop the Devils' issues last season. After acquiring Jake Allen at the trade deadline, they looked improved, but Markström is on a higher level. He's a truly upper-echelon starter in the league with the track record to prove it. After suffering through two goalies with .890 and .895 save percentages last season, Markström only needs to post a .910 to guide New Jersey to significant improvements.
The Devils are likely going to be very good for a long time. They have drafted well and they are chock-full of talent. This should be the start of a fruitful partnership between Keefe and the Devils, but a tough division won't make that easy.
Bold Prediction: Timo Meier will score 35+ goals
4. New York Islanders
Firing Barry Trotz was three steps backward for an Islanders team that has failed to remain the NHL's least favourite side character. New York's identity is a tough defensive unit that wins games on the basis of clutch scoring. They have seemingly lost that essence over the past two seasons. Nevertheless, the Islanders still have a world-class goalie and a few sneaky good forwards.
As usual, the Islanders aren't going to set the world alight. One big change that new coach Patrick Roy made to the team was loading up his best three forwards. Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat, and Mathew Barzal is the Isles' best attempt to rival the likes of Meier-Hughes-Bratt and Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenière. However, Roy noticed that stacking up his three most dangerous forwards left them with a perilously bad bottom-six. Thus, targeting the rapid Anthony Duclair was a very clever move, especially given the cheap cost. He's one of the few players with the foot speed to match Barzal's lightning-quick acceleration. Nelson has broken the 30-goal mark in each of the past three seasons; he's aging like a fine wine. If he can provide another 35-goal season, many of the issues regarding New York's scoring issues will be greatly exaggerated. Aside from those 4, there is not much excitement to arouse regarding their forward group. Kyle Palmieri potted 30 goals in a resurgent season last year, but that isn't likely to last. Maxim Tsyplakov is a highly touted goalscorer after his KHL career. He'll need to make up the difference from possible regression from Palmieri. On the bright side, the team has plenty of defensively-minded forwards that can contribute in Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Casey Cizikas. Pierre Engvall has the package of skills to be a perfect bottom-sixer, but struggles with consistency have seen him demoted to AHL Bridgeport. If Engvall can put it together, he can chip in.
In addition to their two-way forwards, the Islanders boast a solid group on the back end to help protect their goalies. The trusty pair of Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock is subtle and reliable. They match up against opposing teams' best players and shut down chance creation well. Pelech and Pulock allow the Islanders to use Noah Dobson's offensive skills more often. Though Dobson emerged as a perfectly good defensive defenseman, his strengths are clearly his shot and offensive instincts. Alongside Alex Romanov, Dobson should maintain the 70-point pace of last year. Scott Mayfield was once among the most underrated defensemen in the league; a couple of disappointing years in the statistical department have removed that title, but Mayfield looked quite good after Roy took over behind the bench. The speedy Mike Reilly is a good fit next to Mayfield. The Islanders' analytics in 23-24 likely don't reflect the true quality of this D corps; it should be a major strength this year.
You would assume that having one of the best goaltenders in NHL history in the locker room would have been a boon to Ilya Sorokin, but the Russian netminder was poor, surprisingly even after Roy came in. Backup Semyon Varlamov became Roy's preferred option. Sorokin had back surgery in the offseason, which might restrict his play in the opening stages, but Sorokin is one of the very few players out there that I trust to regain their best form immediately under optimal conditions.
The Islanders are probably going to be on the playoff bubble once again. The team doesn't look fantastic on paper, particularly up front, but it appears that they will have a relatively easy route to 4th or 5th in the division. With a solid set of defensive options and an impressive tandem, I'd pick them over the other bubble teams in the Metropolitan.
Bold Prediction: Ilya Sorokin will lead the NHL in save percentage
5. Washington Capitals
The Capitals were one of the worst playoff teams of all-time last season. In order to not rely on luck, they committed to massive improvements in the offseason. They made some of the most aggressive moves of any team in a desperate step to compete for another playoff spot. Given my muted excitement, it is clear that I am unconvinced.
The Capitals finished 28th in the league in goals scored last year, behind the likes of the Montreal Canadiens and the Columbus Blue Jackets. Alex Ovechkin just posted the worst goals per game ratio of his career. He's one of the worst defensive players in the league. As his rival Sidney Crosby has continued to dominate, Ovechkin has struggled to maintain his dominance. Washington's 20.2% power play percentage over the last 3 seasons ranks 18th in the league. Ovechkin is no longer able to tee off from the left face-off circle, because Washington's system has grown much weaker. Dylan Strome led the Caps in points last year and took a major step forward in his career. The Capitals pushed to acquire winger Andrew Mangiapane to play alongside them. Mangiapane is an effective forechecker that will be the fastest skater on the line by some distance. If Mangiapane can get back to his 21-22 form, he'll be a great addition. Another swing that team president Brian MacLellan took in the summer was a trade for the unfulfilled Pierre-Luc Dubois. Dubois was not good in Los Angeles, but a possible change of scenery might help. Given the lack of centre depth, Washington could really take a rejuvenated PLD this season. Tom Wilson is another player that could use a comeback. Wilson is physical with a diverse skill set, but his production has fallen off a cliff. Wilson was playing on Ovechkin's line this past season; if the new additions can demote him to the third line, he might be a positive piece. The skilled Sonny Milano provides secondary scoring and some flair. Nic Dowd is a great shutdown 4C who contenders would love to have. If Washington can't compete this year, he'll be worth a pretty price at the trade deadline.
MacLellan's biggest investment was on the blueline. He took a huge swing in the summer by acquiring Jakob Chychrun. Chychrun is clearly limited defensively, but he's a great option to man the second power play unit and add secondary offense. John Carlson is still a great player in a similar vein to Chychrun. He moves the puck well and can exit the zone with control, thanks to his quick hands and quicker feet. Matt Roy was another interesting signing. Roy was garnering a lot of attention from Cup contenders after a great year with the Kings, but he chose to sign with the Capitals. He will be their best defensive defenseman. Roy should free up the skilled Rasmus Sandin to commit more to the play. The third pair of Martin Fehérváry and Trevor van Riemsdyk is an effective shutdown group, especially in somewhat limited game time.
Charlie Lindgren emerged into a certified cult hero with his clutch performances down the stretch last season. Lindgren was in genuine Vezina consideration after his heroic second half. While Lindgren is evidently a good goalie, it's going to take a lot to replicate his most recent season. An updated defensive corps will help, but I have a feeling that there might be some regression due. Logan Thompson had plenty of promise after his rookie season, but he has not improved on that year. Regardless, I think he'll be a good 1B to Lindgren's 1A.
Middling special teams numbers, an aging forward group, and a goaltender that might struggle to maintain his previous levels aren't the hallmarks of a guaranteed playoff contender. Their improvements should help, but I think the general public is underestimating how bad the Capitals were last year. They had the worst goal differential among playoff teams in the salary cap era. It will take more than a few trades to keep that up.
Bold Prediction: Alex Ovechkin will score less than 30 goals for the first time in a full season in his career
6. Pittsburgh Penguins
The Penguins are a perfect case study that previous success doesn't always last. Though there is still plenty of talent on this roster, the Penguins are far removed from their glory period. The major question will be if GM Kyle Dubas' recent changes can help the remaining core make a playoff charge.
Pittsburgh's investments of the past are gradually parting ways because of Pittsburgh's big investment into veterans and their declining contender status. However, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Bryan Rust are still in the equation and are arguably Pittsburgh's three best forwards. Crosby is still a top-20 player in the league, which is astonishing given his age. He should still be a point-per-game player with good analytics. If Pittsburgh are to recover from their decline in the past two seasons, Crosby needs to stay as good as he has been. Malkin is definitely showing signs of being in his late 30s, but he is still good relative to other 2Cs in the league. Rust has good chemistry with Crosby. He's a good bet for 50+ points every single season. After that, things fall off a cliff. Michael Bunting is a Dubas favourite that can provide secondary scoring and a gritty style. Rickard Rakell started off the season slowly last year, but alongside Malkin, he started to help his line control the play. The Pens are also taking a couple of bets on Anthony Beauvillier and Cody Glass, who have a disappointing history of production, but they have enough skill to add a spark in the bottom-six. I wonder if Beauvillier could challenge Drew O'Connor for the first line LW spot. Noel Acciari is a perfectly fine defensive fourth-liner, but he isn't going to help in the secondary scoring department. After rookie Rutger McGroarty surprisingly made the team, it will be interesting if he can produce in the NHL. He seems to fit the team's policy of grittiness.
Erik Karlsson seemed like a major victory for Dubas after last year's offseason, but he was under-utilized and scored 45 less points than he did the previous year. Coach Mike Sullivan seemed to be forcing a square peg into a round hole with Karlsson's deployment, specifically on Pittsburgh's pathetic power play. The power play is the Penguins' most obvious zone of potential improvement, as there is no possible way that they finish 30th in the league again on the man advantage. Kris Letang seemed to fall to second fiddle, which is natural in his old age, but he's great at exiting the zone with control. To stabilize Karlsson and Letang, allowing them to showcase their full offensive ranges, Sullivan ices them with Marcus Pettersson and Ryan Graves. Pettersson has been a godsend for a Pens team that struggles that lacks an obvious shutdown defenseman. Graves didn't live up to his promise as a two-way blueliner last season, but he was better at shutting down chances than anybody on the roster. Their newest signing, Matt Grzelcyk, is an efficient puck-mover, but his defensive inadequacies don't do much for my confidence that he can be more than a third-pairing guy.
Tristan Jarry was a very good goalie at some point in his career. This is not the case anymore. Increasingly bad results between the pipes have been the biggest cause behind Pittsburgh's downfall. Behind a defense that lacks the ability to easily run the play, unreliable goaltending has made the Pens notoriously porous. Whether Jarry still has the juice to get back to his best, a .903 save percentage in 51 games last season doesn't set the world alight. The team has brought in Alex Nedeljkovic to provide relief, but 'Ned' seems like a one-season wonder at this point; he'll never reach the heights of his 20-21 season ever again.
On the bright side, Pittsburgh's power play will regress to the mean, but this roster doesn't have the makings of one that will be in the mix for a postseason berth. If Crosby gets injured or misses time for any reason, they could easily fall to 8th in the Metro.
Bold Prediction: Evgeni Malkin will be traded
7. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets were blindsided by an absolute tragedy in the offseason. The heartbreaking death of Johnny Gaudreau goes beyond the ice and it will surely affect the Jackets on a much deeper level than I am capable of expressing in this article. It will take an inspiring effort from the squad to not be weighed down by Gaudreau's passing.
Making minimal changes to the roster makes sense, given the potential for internal improvements on the Blue Jackets' roster. Getting rid of Pascal Vincent, who didn't seem fully ready to trust the youth, and hiring Dean Evason, who was a big part of developing the likes of Matt Boldy and Kirill Kaprizov, in Minnesota is a step in the right direction. The prime candidate to benefit from Evason's appointment is Adam Fantilli. Fantilli showed plenty of promise in his first season, but it was perhaps a more difficult season than some expected. Despite that, Fantilli is a rare package of traits in the modern NHL: strong, fast, and skilled. All Three Zones data was very positive on Fantilli, who generated scoring chances at an astonishing rate for an 18-year-old. He should take a step this season. Another player who can excel is Kent Johnson. Since his draft year, Johnson has been one of my favourite prospects. There aren't many guys who can magically create offense like Johnson can. Two of the more positive developments from last year's Jackets roster were Yegor Chinakhov and Kirill Marchenko. Chinakhov is a rapid and hard-working complementary piece. Marchenko led the team with 23 goals last season, flashing his lethal shot on multiple occasions. The biggest free agent signing for the team was centre Sean Monahan. In separate stints with the Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets, Monahan proved that he can adequately run a first line on a bad team or be a useful middle-sixer on a good one. The former is more likely to be helpful this season, especially in the absence of captain Boone Jenner, who will miss most of the season with a shoulder injury. Cole Sillinger has an intriguing physical presence that could come closest to replicating Jenner's impact.
Columbus has put a lot of investment into their defense, but other than Zach Werenski, it doesn't look to be a very inspiring group. Werenski is a gifted offensive defenseman, but he has averaged only 50 games played over the past three seasons. If he can play 70 games, like he did in 23-24, the Jackets will be very grateful. The player to watch is David Jiříček, who was not supported by ex-bench boss Vincent. Jiříček is too physically dominant to be in the AHL, so it will be good to see his NHL career blossom. Jiříček is strong and active defensively. As a right-shot defender, that is the set of raw tools that coaches can work with. Damon Severson and Ivan Provorov were last year's marquee additions, but they both seem to be better on the second pair than with Werenski. Many of Columbus' problems will be resolved if Jiříček can be promoted to the top duo. The team also brought in Jordan Harris and Jack Johnson to compete for the role of Erik Gudbranson's partner.
The Jackets will have to see what version of Elvis Merzlikins they get in 24-25. Merzlikins was decent in 23-24, but 22-23 was significantly worse for the Latvian netminder. It will be interesting to see if Merzlikins can steal some games. Behind him is Daniil Tarasov, who is a perfectly good backup, but it is unclear if he can step to the plate if Merzlikins struggles ahead of him.
The playoffs aren't the expectation for Columbus. Their youngsters should be their best players, but immature NHLers tend to be weak defensively and narrow-minded. Getting a clearer indicator of their future outlook should be the priority this season. Pyrrhic victories in the hopes of getting swept in the first round aren't going to help this team, especially with a decent draft class coming up.
Bold Prediction: Dean Evason will receive Jack Adams votes
8. Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers were the biggest surprise package of last season. Controversial coach John Tortorella shockingly kept the Flyers in a wild card race, though it probably didn't do them much good, considering their prospect pipeline is begging for another blue-chip talent.
The Flyers were arguably the least active team in the NHL offseason. They didn't swing big in free agency to build off their inspiring campaign, but they did manage to recruit Russian phenom Matvei Michkov, who has the promise to become a future Hall-of-Famer in the City of Brotherly Love. Michkov is the type of talent that Philadelphia has severely lacked since Claude Giroux departed. Given his KHL background, expecting him to thrive immediately in the NHL isn't unreasonable. He is physically mature and his offensive IQ trumps that of many veterans. Theoretically, Michkov could lead Philly in points right off the bat. The man that did that last year, Travis Konecny, was possibly the biggest culprit behind Philly's overperformance. He's a threat for 30 goals whenever he is healthy; he should strike up a fruitful partnership with Michkov. But, like Washington, Philadelphia's playoff push came in spite of a pretty brutal offense that finished 27th in the league. They do have some nice pieces that could develop, but the onus will fall on Konecny and Michkov. Tyson Foerster had a very impressive rookie season, particularly on the defensive side of the puck. He profiles as a big power forward with positive impacts in his own zone. Sean Couturier authored a decent bounceback season, but he shouldn't be a 1C anymore. Another revelation was Owen Tippett, a former top prospect himself, who carved out a nice role with 53 points and impressive advanced stats. A player I've always loved is Morgan Frost. Frost started off the season in the doghouse, but his forechecking style is in line with Tortorella's preaching.
In Cam York and Jamie Drysdale, the Flyers boast a couple of young puck-moving defenseman with plenty of room to grow. Drysdale, in particular, has lots of unrealized potential and he would benefit from the coaching that has helped make York a fixture on Philly's first D pair. Travis Sanheim is the guy that Tortorella can lean on in all situations. In difficult minutes, Sanheim is comfortable in his own zone and rarely makes silly mistakes. Nick Seeler has been a decent find for Philadelphia, helping to add a necessary shutdown element to the team. Another player who tore apart some narratives in 23-24 was Rasmus Ristolainen, a 6'4 right-hander. Ristolainen has always had the physical package, but regular gaffes have destroyed his reputation. In easier minutes, 'Risto' was perfectly fine last season.
Goaltending is a big question mark for this team. Given Carter Hart is far removed from the picture, his anticipated backup Samuel Ersson has been pushed into the starter's role. Ersson had his moments after picking up the reins, but an .890 save percentage doesn't inspire much confidence. Ivan Fedotov has a long KHL pedigree in his past, so it's entirely possible that he gets pushed into the 1A role earlier than expected.
Though Michkov improves the Flyers on paper, they drastically exceeded expectations last season and still failed to make the playoffs. That doesn't bode well, particularly if neither Ersson nor Fedotov are starter quality.
Bold Prediction: Morgan Frost will lead Philadelphia in assists and points
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Dallas Stars
The Stars have mastered team-building. GM Jim Nill has excellent players in every position who all happen to be entering their prime. A few months removed from 113 points in the regular season and a third-round exit, there is nothing to suggest that Dallas will fade from the picture.
As Dallas' players age out, they always seem to have the perfect skater in their ranks to take over the minutes. Following the retirement of their #1 centre, Joe Pavelski, the Stars have the luxury of promoting their super sophomore Wyatt Johnston to one of the best trios in hockey. Johnston "only" had 65 points in his second season, but pundits are rightfully tipping him to blow that number out of the water this year. Alongside their best forwards, Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson, Johnston should flirt with 90 points. Losing Pavelski was a big blow, but during their time on his line, Hintz and Robertson became genuine defensive aces. For as useful as Pavelski was, it almost seemed like Hintz and Robertson had to slow down their games for his sake at times, and their point totals dropped. That won't be the case this year. Robertson-Hintz-Johnston promises to be one of the deadliest groups in the league. Matt Duchene was Nill's bargain hunt of last offseason. He's going to have a bigger role as the second-line centre between Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin. A player who could mimic Johnston's growth arc is Logan Stankoven. The 21-year-old has proven to be too dominant for the AHL and he will be in the Dallas lineup full-time. For as intriguing as Johnston could be on the first line, I wonder if coach Pete DeBoer experiments with Stankoven on the first line. Stankoven is a mini dynamo and surprisingly hard to shake off the puck for somebody of his stature. If not, Stankoven is likely to play on a photo-third line with Jamie Benn and Mavrik Bourque. Bourque comes from the Stankoven-Johnston school of Stars' prospect development. Bourque is a rookie that will be asked to keep up with Benn, but after winning the AHL's most valuable player award, he evidently belongs in the Show.
Dallas has seen a lot of turnover on the back end. Buying out Ryan Suter, an overpaid veteran, and losing Chris Tanev to the Leafs will do that. Tanev was fantastic with the Stars, but Nill has earmarked two peculiar choices to replace the departing greybeards. Matt Dumba and Ilya Lyubushkin are both naturally right-handed, which will be useful for a Stars team that has been overloaded with lefties on the blue line. Unfortunately, neither Dumba nor Lyubushkin are going to blow the hinges off the door. On the bright side, Dallas is the most conducive environment for success among average defensemen in the league, so Dumba and Lyubushkin will probably be perfectly decent. Dallas has the richest group of left-handed D-men out there: Miro Heiskanen is a superstar already; Thomas Harley is looking better after every game he plays; Esa Lindell is a very competent defensive rearguard. Heiskanen is the obvious guy to watch. The Finn has a decent case to be the second best blueliner in the league, behind Cale Makar. Even playing on his off hand, Heiskanen dominates play at 5-on-5 and is a legitimate threat to crack 70 points. 2025 might be the year that he wins the Norris Trophy. Harley is more than a typical success story; he is a franchise defenseman in the making. He's efficient in transition and has learned a lot about how to move the puck from Heiskanen.
In goal, Jake Oettinger is a very good goaltender, even if his results have not matched his talent. Oettinger was strangely average last season, but I would not count on that continuing. He had major bright spots in the playoffs last season. If he can build on that, Dallas will be even more impenetrable. Securing Casey DeSmith, one of the NHL's most reliable backups, was a savvy choice as well.
The Stars don't have too many weak points. Within a division of teams with obvious difficulties in a handful of areas, they are an easy choice to top the division. Youth can be a risky strategy to rely upon, but the team has yet to be punished for their growing crop of U25 players in big roles.
Bold Prediction: Dallas will be the only division winner to fail to reach 110 points
2. Colorado Avalanche
The Avalanche are a high-octane squad with the second-best player and the best defenseman in the NHL. Unfortunately, they are constrained by a major lack of oversight in a specific position that could limit their ceiling.
The Avalanche are not a perfect roster, by any means, but the margin for error increases when you have players like Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. MacKinnon is an animal: physical, rapid, excellent shot, and dazzling hands. Rantanen benefits from his presence massively, but he is no slouch himself. He has averaged 105 points in his past two seasons and is a surefire bet to crack the 40-goal mark when he's on his game. Midseason reinforcements will come in the form of Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichuskin, who are both scheduled to come back into the roster after missing a lot of hockey in the past few years. Landeskog, for instance, hasn't played since Colorado won the Cup in 2022. A lot has changed in the hockey landscape, but he should still be an effective middle-sixer that wins puck battles and provides secondary scoring in non-MacKinnon minutes. Jonathan Drouin did a great job as the companion piece to MacKinnon and Rantanen last season. The Avs would love to see a repeat of his 37-assist campaign. Casey Mittelstadt was a pricey commodity at last year's deadline, but he'll need to be on top form as the team's 2C. Further down in the lineup, they have the under-appreciated speedster Logan O'Connor as a support piece to Ross Colton. Miles Wood wasn't what Colorado were expecting, but he should be a good option in fourth-line minutes. Bringing in Nikolai Kolavenko to add secondary offense in the bottom-six is a tantalizing prospect, considering his stats in the Russian league.
Colorado's top pair of Devon Toews and Cale Makar is as good on paper as any pairing in the league, but last year, their results didn't match their previous standards. Makar was dealing with injuries, but the decline in play-driving was stunning nevertheless (a rather pedestrian 51% xGF% isn't eye-catching). Regardless, Makar is the most talented defenseman in decades. There is no way that he doesn't get back to his normal form soon. Josh Manson and Samuel Girard is a trusted second pair that works thanks to Girard's elite foot speed and Manson's mean streak. On the bottom pair, the Avs took a big risk with Erik Brännström and Oliver Kylington. Brännström is a creative D-man who can really pass the puck. Kylington hasn't played much, but he has historically posted good defensive results with the Calgary Flames.
Alexander Georgiev is the undisputed weak point for the team. Georgiev has generally been fine with the Avs, mainly because of the team in front of him, but patience will eventually run out. Given Colorado has the cap space to be active in the trade market, Georgiev has a lot of pressure to perform. Justus Annunen looked like he might start pushing for more appearances, given his performance relative to Georgiev in 23-24. I personally wouldn't rule out a scenario in which neither of these guys start Game 1 for the Avs.
There is every possibility that the likes of MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar are unstoppable this season. A 130-point campaign from MacKinnon is on the cards and Makar is capable of going for 100 points, even as a D. Despite the front-loaded squad, the Avalanche are going to have to mitigate a few weaknesses to compete for a divisional crown.
Bold Prediction: Cale Makar will score 35+ goals
3. Nashville Predators
No team in hockey had a more needle-moving offseason than the Nashville Predators. After getting into the playoffs by virtue of great goaltending, an MVP-caliber season from Filip Forsberg, and an unprecedented hot streak, GM Barry Trotz doubled down on his team's contention window by pledging over $100 million on the first day of free agency.
Forsberg was utterly phenomenal with the Preds in 23-24, as he almost broke the 50-goal and 100-point marks for the first time in his career. However, their next most productive forward was Gustav Nyquist, who also wound back the years with a 75-point showing. Trotz addressed the star power with big moves for two-time Rocket Richard winner, Steven Stamkos, and Jonathan Marchessault, who won the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP in 22-23. Stamkos has operated at over a point-per game for 7 of his last 8 seasons, but his play-driving is not among the league's elite now. Marchessault potted 42 goals in 23-24, yet was a cap casualty of Vegas' aggressive dealings. The Forsberg-Stamkos-Marchessault-Nyquist foursome is an effective group of productive forwards. Barring any huge regression, they will likely all score 60+ points next season. Ryan O'Reilly proved to be a great fit in the Music City, becoming a fan favourite by scoring timely goals and playing excellent two-way hockey. Tommy Novak has plenty of raw tools and he is projected to start the season between Stamkos and Marchessault, an enviable position for anybody. Philip Tomasino and Luke Evangelista are likely to stamp their names on the bottom-six. Evangelista is already a good contributor and Tomasino has lots of promise, particularly his skating, so I'd be optimistic that they improve in 24-25.
Nashville has always had a reputation as a strong defensive unit, but they needed to address their corps with Brady Skjei. Skjei has never gotten enough plaudits for his play in Carolina. Maybe he'll be appreciated more in an environment with slightly lower expectations. The big name is still Roman Josi, even at 34-years-old. The smooth Swiss blueliner has 40+ assists in his last three seasons, an impressive mark for somebody at any stage of their career. It is expected that the inconsistent Dante Fabbro will partner Josi again. Fabbro had good numbers with Josi, but it is unclear how much hand-holding was done in that partnership. Alex Carrier has emerged into one of the most underrated defenders in hockey. After Skjei, he might be Nashville's best shutdown presence. Spencer Stastney might be an underrated option for third-pairing minutes after a strong short-term audition last season.
Whether Nashville's forward corps is almost irrelevant. As long as Juuse Saros is healthy, the Preds sometimes only need a goal to take the two points. Saros is a top-5 goalie in the league on form, but 23-24 wasn't the best we've seen from him. He was still very good, but there's another gear for Saros to reach. Scott Wedgewood was not great in Dallas, but Nashville are likely going to count on him very rarely. If Saros is his vintage self, nobody will notice Wedgewood.
The Predators have invested an ungodly amount into the next few years. If it doesn't work, the ramifications will be massive. Frankly, a playoff spot might not be enough to justify the spending. The Preds need to prove themselves in the spring.
Bold Prediction: Nashville will have four players with 80 points
4. Minnesota Wild
Our past sins always catch up to us. After shocking the league with a few intriguing seasons, led by a new contingent of offensive stars, Minnesota is back to the boring basics. 2024-25 will prove whether that is a sustainable way to use their roster's talent.
Though the Wild do have some fantastic forwards, they fail to be an offensive powerhouse. That's in spite of a genuine superstar in Kirill Kaprizov. Kaprizov is on track to be the best player in Wild franchise history. Even in a tactically conservative system, he is a 90-point player that creates offense from very little. It might take a heroic effort for Kaprizov to vault the Wild into the Central's top-3, but he is genuinely capable of it. Kaprizov gets underrated because the national media likes to pretend that the Wild don't exist. Another player who should be appreciated more is two-way star Matt Boldy. Boldy has an active stick in his own zone (almost Mitch Marner-esque) and he uses his strong frame to create space for his teammates on offense. Minnesota's best centre is Joel Eriksson Ek, who also has regular results of decent production and excellent defense. Marco Rossi flashed signs of promise in his first full-year. Time will tell if asking him to be the Wild's 2C is a high ask. Mats Zuccarello has good playmaking analytics and he has developed chemistry with Kaprizov during their time together. In the middle-six, defensive specialists Marcus Johansson and Marcus Foligno get the job done. Adding another big, defensively responsible winger seemed overkill, but the Wild doubled down on their favourite player profile with grinder Yakov Trenin.
Minnesota's best 3 on the back end is one of the league's most impressive units. Jonas Brodin and Jared Spurgeon have been defensively capable for so long now. Nobody can dispute that they are among the best shutdown defenders in the business. Losing Spurgeon to injury last season was a gut punch. He'll make the team much better. However, in case that wasn't enough, the Wild have spawned a new player of the same vein: Brock Faber would have been a deserving rookie of the year if not for Connor Bedard in 23-24. He should continue to improve in his second season. Jacob Middleton's stats weren't inspiring, but alongside Spurgeon, he should be a good #4 option. Declan Chisholm and Zach Bogosian aren't awe-inspiring, but in the minutes where none of Brodin, Faber, or Spurgeon can play, they'll get the job done.
Goaltending was an issue for Minnesota in 23-24. Filip Gustavsson looked to be on a great trajectory, but he regressed a lot last season. Marc-Andre Fleury didn't look top dollar either, posting the worst save percentage of his 20-year career. The best case scenario is if top prospect Jesper Wallstedt can stake his claim to the 1A position and Gustavsson can take the load off the youngster. Wallstedt should get a chance at the position, but he will likely start the season in the AHL.
The Wild aren't the most entertaining team to watch, but they are always buzzing about the wild card race. With Spurgeon back to full health, it is hard to expect them to be worse than they were last year. Rossi and Boldy will probably improve as well.
Bold Prediction: Matt Boldy will score 90 points and finish top-3 in Selke Trophy voting
5. Utah Hockey Club
After relocating from Arizona, the Utah Hockey Club isn't exactly rife with expectation. But, on a deeper look, this is a talented team with enough spunk to prove some experts wrong. New management had an effective offseason by beefing up the defense and keeping their star forwards committed to the project.
The Coyotes' final year in Arizona was anticipated to be a potential playoff push, but that didn't materialize. There is so much room for internal improvement among this talented forward core. Clayton Keller has been doing his utmost to prove that he is a franchise player; his past two seasons of 86 and 76 points, respectively, have been the best marks of his career. At 26, he is now entering his prime. Logan Cooley's rookie season met all expectations and it seems clear that he is going to score way more than 44 points this season. On Cooley's wing is Nick Schmaltz, one of the best playmaking wingers in the game. If Keller can finish his chances alongside Cooley and Schmaltz, he seems like a good bet to be Utah's first 40-goal scorer. Another potential candidate for the 1RW slot is Dylan Guenther. Guenther has exceeded expectations for his development at this stage of his career. He is now at the precipice of a make-or-break year. I personally think he is one of the safest breakout picks in the league. Barrett Hayton has been plagued by inconsistency during his career, but he can be decent in the middle-six. Lawson Crouse is a good grinder that will have a limited role this season; that might help him look good against weaker competition. The heir to Crouse's peskiness throne is Josh Doan, son of Coyotes legend Shane, who is expected to play in the NHL all season. Another underrated piece is Matias Maccelli, a very smart passer who could be pushed into the top-six to harness the abilities of a player like Guenther or Keller.
Utah's first blockbuster move was a trade for ex-Lightning defender Mikhail Sergachev. Sergachev isn't an unproven young guy anymore. His physical gifts have always hinted at his promise, but with no Victor Hedman, Sergachev will have to handle the burden of being a team's go-to option in all situations. Sergachev is a risky bet, but not necessarily a bad one. Utah also invested a lot into John Marino, an effective safety blanket that can be a good Sergachev partner. Sean Durzi was a success story in Arizona last year and should continue to do so, provided he is sheltered from the toughest minutes. Juuso Välimäki is a good foil for Durzi, as he is bit more defensively oriented. Utah also made a cost-effective acquisition in Ian Cole to help out defensively on the third pair.
At the start of last season, it seemed that Karel Vejmelka was set to be Arizona's starter. However, Connor Ingram didn't let that happen. He took a huge step and was a top-10 goaltender in goals saved above expected. Behind an improved defense, Ingram should continue his reassuring form.
Utah's management have run a very tight ship in their first offseason. External players like Sergachev and Marino will be a big help, but their odds of fulfilling this prediction are firmly in the hands of the likes of Cooley and Guenther.
Bold Prediction: Logan Cooley will lead Utah in points
6. Winnipeg Jets
After their blistering hot start to the season in 23-24, finishing sixth in the division this year would be blasphemy. The Jets don't necessarily need a blurb. If their starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the world again, they will be in the fight with Dallas. If not, 6th seems reasonable.
The Jets have plenty of talent up front, but they have a history of underutilizing it. Nikolaj Ehlers is the main example. Any longtime Sincere Sports readers will know that I rate Ehlers incredibly highly. However, his coaches have always made the questionable decision of removing him from the first power play unit and giving him unsatisfactory ice time. If new coach Scott Arnier can learn how to use the weapon he has on his books, Ehlers could emerge as Winnipeg's best forward (no hyperbole). If Ehlers remains unfulfilled, scoring will be the burden of Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele. Connor isn't the best play-driver, but he's a lethal sniper that will almost certainly net 30 goals, regardless of the circumstance. Scheifele is a gifted passer and a decent bet to surpass the 70-point mark, but his defensive weaknesses are exposed as the 1C on a competitive team. It doesn't help that Connor is brutal defensively too. Losing trade deadline acquisitions Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli will put a burden on players like Cole Perfetti and Gabriel Vilardi to improve on their 23-24 seasons. Perfetti is still young, but he will need to score more than half a point per game to become a key contributor. Adam Lowry is Winnipeg's X-factor. He is handed the hard matchups that a 1C usually has to take on and he has been excellent in the role. It helps that he has Nino Niederreiter and Mason Appleton on the wings; they are both competent defensively.
Josh Morrissey's breakthrough has been awesome to watch. He keeps getting better. His 23-24 season was arguably even better than the 22-23 year that garnered Norris attention. Morrissey produced as many scoring chance contributions per 60 as Roman Josi and patched up his defensive game. Thanks to Morrissey, Dylan DeMelo has also hugely improved his game. More conservative than Morrissey, DeMelo is nevertheless a weapon in transition. Sadly, things fall off after that. Neal Pionk has regressed in the past few seasons, despite usually playing alongside defense-first veteran Brendan Dillon. After losing Dillon in the summer, Winnipeg will have to hope that Dylan Samberg's sparkling analytics are a result of his talent and not favourable conditions on the third pair. The Jets also brought in Haydn Fleury, who hasn't lived up to his 7th-overall billing, but is still only 28.
As mentioned previously, Hellebuyck will have to be the Jets' MVP for them to thrive again. Hellebuyck was torn apart in the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs. Considering he won the Vezina with a .921 save percentage, his struggles came as a massive surprise. Losing a great backup in Laurent Brossoit doesn't help either. Kaapo Kahkonen, who is, quite frankly, not on Brossoit's level, won't be the reliable backup that Hellebuyck needs to push him.
Bold Prediction: Winnipeg will fire new coach Scott Arniel during the season
Connor Bedard (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
7. Chicago Blackhawks
The Blackhawks are still in the early stages of their rebuild, so they are not predicted to threaten the Central power dynamic. That's perfectly OK. Chicago is expected to show progress, but be in the mix for a high draft pick again. With that being said, the Blackhawks have made some aggressive moves that will likely keep them out of the basement.
Despite the unreasonable amount of hype, Connor Bedard lived up to the expectations. Considering he was in an environment that was definitively not conducive to success in the NHL, Bedard nearly scored at a point-per-game pace. He now has some actual reinforcements up front, which should make him look more at home. Bedard is not yet a good defensive player, but incomers like Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, and Ilya Mikheyev have the play-driving numbers to help Bedard in that department. Teravainen, in particular, is a big addition. He's excellent defensively and his speed in transition was lacking among Bedard's regular linemates last year. Nick Foligno is the veteran presence that will help Bedard grow his two-way game. Getting a (hopefully) healthy Taylor Hall is also a boon, especially for Chicago's stats on the man advantage. Philipp Kurashev had a career-best season in 23-24, but playing next to Bedard probably helped significantly. Another player who looked good in a minefield was Jason Dickinson. Alongside Mikheyev, the two could form a really good checking line. It appears that they'll be separated this season, in which case Kurashvev may regress back to the mean. Lukas Reichel is a player that I expected to blossom next to Bedard, because of their complementary skillsets, but coach Luke Richardson never acted on that opportunity. Reichel looked pretty bad last year, but I'd count on a bounceback if given the requisite chances.
The Hawks needed to get better defensively, so they opted for a pair of veterans in Alec Martinez and TJ Brodie. Martinez and Brodie are smart and experienced, but they are physically limited at this stage of their careers. If not for Bedard's season, Alex Vlasic would have been in Calder consideration. Considering he was only 22, Vlasic was defensively excellent. He emerged as a potential #1 as soon as this year. It is not clear if Richardson will use Vlasic as a tandem partner for Seth Jones. Jones is a good player, but he is very limited for his price tag. With Vlasic alongside him, Jones pushed up and had his best puck-moving numbers as a Blackhawks. If that isn't a fluke, many of Chicago's issues will be solved. Rookie Nolan Allan might become a third-pair fixture. Allan is strong defensively and a great skater.
After Petr Mrazek's unexpected resurgence, the Hawks could have a legitimate tandem on their hands. To illustrate their intention to be more competitive, they signed Laurent Brossoit, one of the best tandem goalies in the NHL. Brossoit has been lucky to play behind Connor Hellebuyck in the pecking order, but by goals saved above expected, he ranks in the top-15 among goalies since 2023.
As you may notice from my description, Chicago are mainly going to be focused on maximizing Connor Bedard in the present and future. The most important part of any rebuild is keeping the players accountable. Losing every game doesn't help with that. Making the games close will certainly set Chicago on the right track.
Bold Prediction: Connor Bedard will score 50 goals
8. St. Louis Blues
Take this prediction with a grain of salt: I am an avid Blues hater. Since 2022, I've been convinced that everything is going to come crashing down for the Blues. Frankly, that might be a blessing in disguise. Rather than staying in middling purgatory, it might be time to commit to a rebuild with their young players at the helm.
Let's start off with the positives. Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou are fantastic players that haven't yet reached their age-27 season. Thomas was an all-situations fiend last year, averaging almost 21 minutes a game, while posting 86 points. He's a fantastic skater and an even better passer, reminiscent of former Blues legend Bernie Federko. If Thomas was surrounded by a more lethal set of weapons, he'd be widely considered a top-5 playmaker in the league. Kyrou is also very fun to watch, though his production has been gradually slipping. Nevertheless, he makes things happens and has averaged 72 points over his last 3 seasons. Pavel Buchnevich is St. Louis' third star. Though his point total dropped drastically in 23-24, his play-driving analytics remained strong. If the Blues actually do fall to last in the Central, I'd expect any contender with cap space to spend a ransom on Buchnevich. Things loom a lot less promising after that. Jake Neighbours has been tipped for big things, but a 19% conversion rate is unsustainable and he relies a lot on his linemates at even strength, even if he did score 27 goals last year. Dylan Holloway, signed to an offer sheet from the Cup finalist Oilers, is a great skater that could contribute in the middle-six, but shouldn't be counted on for anything more. Brandon Saad and Brayden Schenn are unremarkable players at this stage of their careers. Mathieu Joseph is a decent third-liner that makes up for his lack of offensive pop with his forechecking.
On defense, another offer sheet was sent to Edmonton for Philip Broberg. Broberg is 6'4, a good skater, and a creative instinct. But he has never figured it out in the NHL. A change of scenery might extract his best hockey. It will be intriguing to see how coach Drew Bannister uses him. He could step up alongside the struggling Colton Parayko. Parayko, like Broberg, is tall, strong, and can move the puck. Also like Broberg, that package of abilities hasn't translated to results. Parayko has probably been held back by Nick Leddy in his prime years, but Broberg might be too similar to be an effective partner. Justin Faulk may be St. Louis' best D-man, which is a damning statement in 2024. Scott Perunovich was once the pride of the Blues' pipeline after winning the Hobey Baker Award in 2020, but he is already 26. With his two-way skills, he could take a massive leap from the third pair to the first pair if he stays healthy.
Jordan Binnington is tough to judge. He has had years as a below-average starter and he has had years (like 23-24), where he looks unbelievable. Alongside tandem partner Joel Hofer, Binnington posted top-3 marks in the league for goals saved above expected. If we factor in some regression, the Blues might be in trouble. Consider this unskilled Blues team if Bennington posts an .894 SV%, like he did in 22-23, and Hofer fails to take the starter's job. It could get ugly.
Even if Binnington is just average, the Blues will not be near the postseason this season. I'm not sure that the Blues can replicate a GA/GP rate of 3.02 in 2024-25.
Bold Prediction: The Blues will be awarded the first overall pick in the 2025 NHL draft
PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Edmonton Oilers
After losing the first three games of the Stanley Cup finals, the Oilers stormed back and forced a game 7, which they lost in a heartbreaking manner. While it was a missed opportunity that Edmonton won't soon forget, the Oilers are going to be hungrier and more motivated than ever. Given the fact that they might have the best roster in the NHL, Edmonton should wipe the Pacific Division away.
Having two of the best forwards in the league is an easy foundation to start from, especially when one of them is the indomitable Connor McDavid, the most skilled NHL player of all time. McDavid was the fourth player in NHL history to top 100 assists last season. He is continuously improving his shot and hands, which is a scary prospect. Edmonton's second cog is no slouch either. Leon Draisaitl ranks second (behind only McDavid) in points over the last 6 seasons. He arguably has a top-3 shot in the NHL, too, which he uses to devastating effects on the power play. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins probably isn't the player that exploded for 104 points in 22-23, but he's a flexible player that can challenge for the 70-point mark every season. Perhaps no player benefits more from McDavid's skill than Zach Hyman, who has always had an eerie sense of where to go on the ice. Thanks to his centre's playmaking, Hyman scored 54 goals, a career-high by 18 markers. To add some secondary scoring alongside Draisaitl, president Jeff Jackson secured Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. Skinner can still score 30 goals in a middle-six role. Arvidsson is a good two-way option alongside them. After losing Dylan Holloway to the Blues, there will have to be better seasons from Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown. A potential high-upside player to take over Holloway's position is Matthew Savoie. Like Holloway, Savoie is a good skater with a great shot. That's exactly what Holloway brought to the team. Don't be surprised if Savoie sneaks past Derek Ryan or Corey Perry in the lineup.
The emergence of Evan Bouchard as a Norris Trophy candidate saved Edmonton, because Darnell Nurse, who was expected to be a #1 D-man, regressed to replacement level. Bouchard is not just a fantastic power play quarterback, but he is one of the best puck-movers in the league and a genuinely great two-way player. He creates more than any blueliner in the NHL, aside from Cale Makar. Bouchard relies a lot on his D partner, Mattias Ekholm. Ekholm's defensive abilities pair perfectly with the offense-oriented Bouchard. Nurse's downfall has been something to behold, but in his defense, playing with Cody Ceci didn't do him any favours. Acquiring analytical darling Ty Emberson to play alongside him seems like a clever idea. On a bad San Jose Sharks team, Emberson stood out for his ability to protect the blue line and join the rush. However, he's an unproven option with only 30 games of NHL experience.
The Oilers are probably the best offensive team in the NHL, so goaltending is going to be less of a priority. Stuart Skinner gets a lot of criticism, but most of that is undue disparagement. His 2.62 goals against average was a respectable 11th in the league among goalies with 40+ starts. He is also only 25 and going into his third full season. There is still plenty of room to improve. Calvin Pickard had good results in 23-24, but he is definitely closer to a full backup than a 1B. Skinner will have a major workload this season.
Losing in the Finals is almost certainly going to keep this team angry. An angry Connor McDavid is a scary prospect for the remainder of the league. The Oilers are likely to be in the running for the President's Trophy and even more.
Bold Prediction: Stuart Skinner will win the Vezina Trophy
2. Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were fantastic in 23-24, surprisingly taking the division title and seeing major improvements from their best players and the complementary pieces. Though their puck luck is worth noting, this team looks skilled enough to replicate the 109-point season from last year.
The Canucks vastly exceeded expectations last season, seeing plenty of exciting growth from the players that needed to improve. Nobody fits that description more than JT Miller, who proved that he is still good enough to play at above a PPG pace, even going into his 30s. Miller was one that certainly benefited from an inflated shooting percentage, relative to his career average, but even some slight regression will still result in an impressive season. His right winger, Brock Boeser, scored a career-high 40 goals and fed well off the O-zone time that Miller created. Vancouver's best forward is Elias Pettersson. Pettersson had his 3rd consecutive 30-goal season and he flirted with the 90-point mark while providing excellent defense. GM Patrik Allvin noted Pettersson's playmaking skills and went guns blazing for Edmonton native Jake DeBrusk in free agency. Ilya Mikheyev's results on Pettersson's wing were uninspiring, but DeBrusk has three 25+ goal seasons on his ledger and plays a dogged brand of hockey that should free up more space for the silky Swede. New signing Daniel Sprong will likely battle with Nils Höglander for the other winger spot alongside Pettersson and DeBrusk, considering Sprong's goal/60 analytics have always been impressive. Vancouver has one of the best third lines in the league in Dakota Joshua, Pius Suter, and Conor Garland. It's a perfect mix of profiles: Joshua brings a great shot, Suter is great defensively, and Garland is one of the league's best forecheckers.
The biggest glow-up from last season was Quinn Hughes, who developed from a player hesitant to use his obvious natural talents to one of the best rearguards in the league and a Norris winner. He developed his defensive game and flexed his shot a lot more. A big part of Hughes' explosion was Filip Hronek. Every Batman needs his Robin, and Hronek proved to be a great complement with his defense-first game. Carson Soucy is a personal favourite player and he proved to be a good #3/4 last year. Bringing in 6'7 Vincent Desharnais from the Cup finalist Oilers might make sense alongside Soucy as a shutdown pair. Desharnais isn't very good at breaking the puck out of his zone, but he can move bodies out of the net-front area with ease. Losing Nikita Zadorov to the Bruins will be a blow, but Derek Forbort and Tyler Myers can be a perfectly decent third pairing.
Thatcher Demko proved to be one of the league's best goalies during the regular season. He was dominant with a .918 save percentage that ranked second in the league. However, Demko is starting the season on the injured list, likely for at least a month. Casey DeSmith did a good job in relief, but it was smart to bring in another good backup in Kevin Lankinen. Arturs Silovs proved to be an option and I assume that he will be chomping at the bit for starts when Demko is out.
The Canucks should be more offensively dynamic with the addition of DeBrusk. If their puck luck runs short, they will still be in playoff contention, but it might not be this comfortable. They finished 6th in offense last year, despite ranking 13th in expected offense. However, this is a very talented team that is showing no signs of slowing down.
Bold Prediction: Jake DeBrusk will score 40+ goals
3. Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' aggressive moves in the market have finally started to catch up with them. Without their usual cap space, Vegas lost two key contributors in Chandler Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault to the free agent market. They do still have the star power to sneak into the playoffs in a weak Pacific division, but it will be much closer than it has been over the past few seasons.
The Golden Knights still have investments from the past that will keep them relevant. Jack Eichel is clearly the #1 option this year, which might be a difficult burden to bear, but Eichel is used to it. After his newsworthy surgery precipitating his trade to Vegas, Eichel has had his high points, but his regular season points tallies have not been eye-popping. He controls the play very well at 5-on-5, which is a useful trait, but anything less than an 80-point season, which he has only done once in his career, would be disappointing given his natural talent. The Knights also took a swing at Tomáš Hertl at last year's deadline, who should be the second-line centre that Vegas desperately needs behind Eichel. Hertl is a dynamic offensive talent and a threat for 35 goals. Hertl might push William Karlsson to the 3C slot, where he grades as one of the best 3Cs in the league. Karlsson isn't going to score 40 goals again, but he plays good two-way hockey and just scored 30 last season. Nicolas Roy is Vegas' 4th best centre, but he deserves to be playing higher in the lineup, so he might force Karlsson to the wing to squeeze as much talent in the middle-six as possible. Vegas' winger depth has taken a big hit. Mark Stone is one of the best defensive wingers in the league and a threat for 50 assists alongside Eichel, but he hasn't played 70 games in a season in early a decade. The Knights brought in Victor Olofsson, who has a devastating shot, but not much else, for depth scoring purposes. Another player in the same vein is Alexander Holtz. Holtz has a lethal release, but his all-around game is weak. A player that could take a leap is Pavel Dorofeyev. Last year, he would have led Vegas' current winger crop in goals per 60. He has yet to play consistently well over the course of the season, but he might be advantaged by Vegas' paper-thin winger depth.
The blueline is Vegas' biggest source of strength. Veteran Alex Pietrangelo is coming off the worst season of his career, but after Vegas got Noah Hanifin to partner Pietrangelo, the pairing developed instant chemistry, controlling 59% of the expected goals in their time together. Hanifin is a great all-around D-man that can move the puck and protect his blue line. At this rate, Shea Theodore is probably the team's best defenseman. Theodore is an elite creator from the back end. Despite only appearing in half of the games last year, Theodore nearly posted 40 assists. With the conservative Brayden McNabb alongside him, they form one of the most effective second pairs in the league. Zach Whitecloud and Nicolas Hague are both perfectly capable of moving up in the lineup; they present a dominant force on the third pair.
Adin Hill has been a capable 1A for the Knights, but he has been plagued by consistency issues at times. To cover for Hill's weaknesses, they brought in ex-Leaf Ilya Samsonov as a tandem partner. Samsonov was very poor last year, finishing 87th among all goalies with -8.1 goals saved above expected. However, the year before, he ranked 10th in the NHL for the same stat. A lot of Vegas' problems would be compounded if Samsonov is closer to the version we saw last season.
By virtue of the Pacific Division's lack of middling teams, the Golden Knights are a good bet for the playoffs. But this could be the beginning of the end if Eichel can't stamp his name as a superstar in the league.
Bold Prediction: Pavel Dorofeyev will score 30+ goals
4. Anaheim Ducks
Every so often, there's a team chock-full of talented youngsters and over-the-hill veterans that exceeds all expectations and makes a weird playoff run. I'm taking a swing on the Ducks to be that team in 24-25. Occasionally, patience finally pays off with a season of successes. Frankly, Anaheim is due some good luck.
Years in the dregs of the league have helped the Ducks accrue a very talented young core. Though there are plenty of potential stars on the roster, their future franchise player is Leo Carlsson, who posted excellent two-way results as a rookie. He had impressive defensive analytics as a freshman and scored at over half a point-per-game. Fellow top pick Mason McTavish looks to be an excellent future 2C. His defense still leaves a bit to be desired, but he is a great finisher and a threat on the cycle. Frank Vatrano was Anaheim's leading scorer in 23-24, after potting 37 goals out of nowhere. Troy Terry's goalscoring has taken a hit over the past few seasons, but he remains a good complementary piece that should challenge for 60 points with more talent around him. The big addition to the squad will be Cutter Gauthier on a full-time basis. Gauthier won lots of fans during his development as a member of the Flyers organization; anybody with his combination of shot, skill, and size is going to be a productive NHL player. I wouldn't rule out a 30-goal season for Gauthier immediately. Whether Trevor Zegras is traded or not will have a big impact on the Ducks' season. Zegras has struggled to live up to his mighty potential. However, he has great hands in tight spaces and is still a good playmaker. His defensive deficiencies have limited his game time under coach Greg Cronin. Considering Alex Killorn's contract, he should be more than a decent middle-sixer, but that is his role nowadays. If he can be a veteran presence in front of the net on the power play, he'll go a long way towards paying off his end of the deal. They brought in speedster Robby Fabbri to push the play in the bottom-six.
The Ducks have been excellent at developing defensemen over the past few years and the results are starting to follow. In 22-23, the Ducks were historically awful at keeping the puck out of the net, but they showed signs of improvement last season (finishing 30th still isn't great). On the top pair, youngster Olen Zellweger has been forced into big minutes with veteran Cam Fowler, but they posted some of Anaheim's best underlying numbers last year. Zellweger has exciting two-way play, but his calling card is his play in transition. Pavel Mintyukov showed that he is capable of dazzling with the puck at his stick by finishing second behind Fowler in assists as a rookie. Considering Mintyukov's defensive deficiencies, playing alongside Radko Gudas, who has only gotten better at chance prevention with age, will get the best of the young Russian. As a veteran presence, bringing in Brian Dumoulin is a savvy move. It'll be interesting to see if Tristan Luneau or Jackson LaCombe win the final spot. Luneau has offensive potential, but considering the Ducks struggle to protect their nets, LaCombe is the favourite.
John Gibson and Lukáš Dostál are both good goalies in their own right, but they have naturally struggled behind the floundering Ducks D corps. Gibson was one of the best goaltenders in the league in his prime, but he has been below replacement level for six straight seasons. Dostál could be set to steal his starter's role after an impressive .903 save percentage in his age-24 season.
The Ducks could take advantage of a weak division to place high in the standings. They have the players that can surprise the public and with two talented goaltenders on the bench, I think they are capable of entering the wild-card race.
Bold Prediction: Lukáš Dostál will take over the starting gig and finish in the top-5 in Vezina Trophy voting
5. Seattle Kraken
The Kraken struggled to build on their first postseason appearance, falling to under .500 and 6th in the Pacific Division. It triggered a coaching change and a surprisingly trigger-happy offseason. The Kraken have plenty of scoring depth, but with no superstars on the roster, they look to be set for the unhappy middle once again.
Seattle's ex-Calder champion Matty Beniers was subjected to the sophomore slump in 23-24. His shooting percentage fell significantly and his playmaking stagnated. If Seattle are to challenge in the wild card race, he will need to take a big step to the tune of 70+ points and strong on-ice metrics. As Beniers regressed, his linemates Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle looked a lot less potent. McCann scored 11 less goals than he did the season prior; Eberle had a 19-point decrease. Coach Dan Bylsma will need to coax a lot more out of his top line or maybe switch it up. Pledging a lot of money to Chandler Stephenson might make Beniers' burden lighter. Stephenson was generally an underrated middle-six weapon until his final season in Vegas, but he has always had great wingers to his sides to get the best out of him. Jaden Schwartz and Eeli Tolvanen are good defensively, but neither of them are Mark Stone. That utility winger profile is not something that the Kraken are lacking in, considering Brandon Tanev, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Tye Kartye, and Andre Burakovsky all fit the mould. A potential breakout candidate is Shane Wright, playing is his first NHL season for the first time. Wright's development has been slow and steady, but he started to look like a future star during back-to-back excellent AHL campaigns. If Wright can score 30 goals, Seattle will be much more dynamic.
Seattle's biggest addition was Stanley Cup champion Brandon Montour. Montour is a dynamic puck-mover that is less than 2 years removed from a 73-point season in the Sunshine State. He has put together two consecutive excellent postseason runs. Considering the Kraken might struggle to score, having Montour, who can step into the play at will, will be valuable. The Kraken have another smooth rearguard in Vince Dunn, who is decent in all three zones. He produced 2.0 points per 60, above the likes of Miro Heiskanen in 23-24. Dunn is probably Seattle's best player, but his production could suffer if Montour takes away his minutes on the power play. Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak are the shutdown types that you'd like alongside range passers like Dunn and Montour. Ryker Evans and Will Borgen are very good as a third pairing. I'd expect them to attract major interest at the trade deadline.
In net, Philipp Grubauer lost his starting role to Joey Daccord. Daccord covered up a lot of the Kraken's flaws; they easily could have been closer to the likes of Anaheim and San Jose without his .916 SV% and 3.8 goals saved above expected, which ranked 4th and 17th in the league, respectively. However, before last season, his career-high in games was 8. He isn't used to the starter's burden yet, which might push Grubauer back into the fray. Grubauer has an .893 save percentage since joining Seattle and has been generally inconsistent. That might not be enough in 24-25.
Seattle's defensive group is quite good, but they don't have much firepower up front and their starting goalie has only 69 games of NHL experience. In the Pacific, they could theoretically get close to the finally playoff spot, but a spot in the middle seems more likely.
Bold Prediction: Seattle will have the most players to score 10+ goals, but will have no 30+ goal scorers
6. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings are discovering how difficult it is to progress in the modern NHL if you miss on a few big moves. As the rest of the league advances, it is easy to fade into mediocrity, regardless of your previously smart moves. The Kings have hit a wall and look to be outside of contention yet again this season.
The Kings have tried to replicate a strategy that has been successful among other teams: collect a lot of young talent to surround your veteran stars with. Unfortunately, not all of the team's youngsters have blossomed and their veterans are slowly regressing with age. At 36, Anže Kopitar is still one of the best defensive centres in the league. Against top competition, he continues to churn out positive results. But we can't realistically expect Kopitar to score 70 points for the third consecutive season unless he sees some growth around him. Phillip Danault helps eat some of the tough minutes that Kopitar can't take on singlehandedly, though he doesn't provide much offense. A player who did contribute in the scoring charts was 21-year-old Quinton Byfield, who took a long-awaited jump to 55 points. If he can manage a full-time transition to centre and build on his fantastic 2.07 points per 60, he could become Los Angeles' best player. Byfield is lucky to be able to play with Kevin Fiala, one of the more underrated playmakers in the league. Fiala is a uniquely good skater that can produce between 70-80 points each season. Adrian Kempe is a great scoring winger alongside Kopitar. Sadly, L.A.'s winger depth leaves a bit to be desired outside of Fail and Kempe. Warren Foegele has been brought in to add some grittiness and net-front presence. Alex Laferriere is projected to start the season on the top line in spite of mediocre underlying numbers and a disappointing 23 points. Trevor Moore is a speedy third-liner that forechecks very well, but he isn't going to set the world alight with his points tally. GM Rob Blake also took on Tanner Jeannot's contract in hopes that he isn't completely lost, but he is going to be a tricky reclamation project to salvage.
With Drew Doughty in the fold, the Kings don't have an excellent defense group. Coach Jim Hiller's safe 1-3-1 formation helps them look a bit less exposed, but losing Doughty for the first few months of the season is a killer blow. One of Brandt Clarke or Jordan Spence are going to have to prove that they can be a legitimate top pairing blueliner until November, which is unlikely, but not impossible. Clarke seems to be NHL-ready, especially in terms of his puck-moving. But he realistically needs a bit of time on a sheltered third pair to grow his game. Hiller might not have that choice. Losing Matt Roy is also going to create a greater burden for Vladislav Gavrikov. It's fair to assume that Gavrikov's chance suppression numbers have been inflated by Roy's presence. Luckily, they still have Mikey Anderson, who was a worthy supplement for Doughty and seems to be a legitimately good shutdown option.
After letting go of Cam Talbot, the Kings decided to abandon their Pierre-Luc Dubois experiment and trade him for goalie Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper has a good track record in the NHL, but his time in Washington wasn't fruitful. He became a backup in 23-24, but will be forced to man the crease in 50+ games, considering David Rittich is the closest thing to a reinforcement in net.
The Kings have plenty of talent, but after running into the Oilers machine for three consecutive years, they need something to break in their favour. Losing Doughty for so long is a bad way to start off.
Bold Prediction: Los Angeles will have the biggest decrease in points of any team in the NHL
7. San Jose Sharks
The Sharks aren't ready to reap the rewards of their teardown yet, but with a future #1 centre coming in, they should be more competitive than last year's horror show. The real focus is going to be on development of their youngsters, which tends to result in a poor record. Nevertheless, as long as they can make games close and get another high draft pick, GM Mike Grier will consider the season to be a success.
After finishing 32nd in the league, San Jose was rewarded with a chance to pick Macklin Celebrini, a young phenom with limitless potential. Celebrini is likely going to be a cornerstone for Sharks teams of the next generation. He plays with high-end skill, but also seems to have great defensive tools. Whether his two-way play requires honing at the NHL level is unclear, but he won't be an absolute liability without the puck. Another future All-Star is Will Smith. Smith's puck skills are legitimately on the level of great professional players already. He'll have to iron out his competitiveness and off-puck play, but a low pressure environment should help with that. The Sharks made an aggressive move to get Tyler Toffoli to help Celebrini and Smith transition to the league. Toffoli has been a great play-driver for most of his career and should be a solid bet for 55+ points. Logan Couture is a veteran presence with a deft scoring touch. He only played in 6 games in 23-24, but if he can return to his regular form, he will also help out the rookies. Mikael Granlund had a bounceback year with 60 points; he is still a great passer. William Eklund was second in scoring among Sharks last year at age 20, which shows a lot of promise. Fabian Zetterlund also looked quite good in San Jose. At only 25, expecting some growth out of Zetterlund is not out of the question. Grier also brought in a good defensive 3C in Alex Wennberg to take the burden off Smith, in particular.
Given Sam Dickinson will still need time to grow in the OHL, the Sharks' defensive unit is not cause for excitement. They sent Ty Emberson, who actually had decent results last season, to Edmonton in exchange for Cody Ceci, who is nowhere near top pair quality at this point of his career. Mario Ferraro is the default #1 defenseman in the organization, but he was overwhelmed on several occasions last year. They did manage to scam Steve Yzerman out of Jake Walman for next to nothing. Walman had strong numbers in Detroit and might make the top-4 a bit more competent. Marc-Édouard Vlasic is one of the worst players in the league, despite carrying a $7 million cap hit. A rare reason for optimism is Henry Thrun, who had plenty of good cameos in his rookie season.
Mackenzie Blackwood was unfairly asked to backstop a historically awful defensive squad, but his career goals against average of 3.09 isn't great regardless of context. Therefore, Grier took advantage of Yaroslav Askarov's trade request. Askarov is one of the top-3 goaltending prospects in hockey and has been likened to Marc-Andre Fleury. The team might run with Blackwood and Vitek Vanecek to show some patience in Askarov's development, or they might ask him to be the 1A immediately. Either way, I think Askarov is the best netminder in the Sharks organization right now.
San Jose aren't going to make a surprise run at the playoffs unless Celebrini and Smith can both post some of the best rookie seasons of the 21st century. Either way, if they can improve on last year's dismal showing, which seems reasonable, things will look a bit brighter.
Bold Prediction: Fabian Zetterlund will lead San Jose with 70 points
8. Calgary Flames
Given the team's roster depth on paper, I was surprised to recall that Calgary barely finished under .500 last season. They've obviously lost a pretty huge piece in goalie Jacob Markström, but this team definitely overperformed in 23-24 and still finished a distant 5th in the Pacific Division. Things could get a lot uglier this year.
This Flames roster is full of reclamation projects that haven't really worked out. A few years ago, this roster would have seemed very promising, but the forward group is certainly begging for new blood. Jonathan Huberdeau has definitively confirmed that Calgary lost the Matthew Tkachuk trade with many sub-standard performances. On the brighter side, his post-All Star break run last year was probably his best play in Calgary with a 66-point pace. Still disappointing, but there is potential to build off that play. Nazem Kadri formed Calgary's best play-driving duo alongside Huberdeau. Kadri is very clearly still an effective contributor at this stage of his career. He should flutter around the 65-point mark, which might be enough to lead the Flames. Andrei Kuzmenko is a big body with a great shot that has benefited from playing with Huberdeau. Yegor Sharangovich was the return on one of Calgary's less lopsided trades in recent memory. He chipped in with some timely second scoring last year. Mikael Backlund is still a good defensive centre, though he is playing too high up in the lineup. Blake Coleman is arguably the most underrated winger in the NHL. If Calgary are as bad as I am projecting them to be, contenders will be all over Coleman if the Flames can retain salary. Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil showed signs of being capable in an elevated lineup role. GM Craig Conroy also brought in winger Anthony Mantha to the fray on a one-year deal. Mantha should play major top-six minutes to generate a large return at the trade deadline. A potential wild-card option is rookie Samuel Honzek. Honzek is a big forward who can skate well, a solid combo of tools at the NHL level.
Calgary's top pair of MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson are going to have to put forth some Herculean performances in 24-25, because the depth falls off a cliff after that. Weegar is an excellent play-driver and power play quarterback that doesn't get enough credit for how much he has carried Calgary's back end over the past couple of seasons. Andersson has defensively struggled in his last few years, but is a good puck-mover himself. Daniil Miromanov was part of the return in the Noah Hanifin trade and the 6'7 blueliner had decent results in sheltered minutes last season. Carrying a second pair is going to be a much more difficult task. Neither Kevin Bahl or Jake Bean (both recent acquisitions) seem to be good fits for their expected role. Though he shouldn't be rushed, top prospect Zayne Parekh might be worth a look, especially if the team makes some trades.
Losing Markström is going to make Calgary a much worse team. He ranked 9th in the NHL for goals saved above expected on a bad defensive team. Top prospect Dustin Wolf is going to be the Flames' starter. Wolf has posted great numbers at every level (except the NHL). At a minuscule 6'0, his projection is hard to nail down, but Calgary's season essentially rests in the hands of a 23-year-old netminder. Hard to have too much faith, especially when his backup is Dan Vladar. Vladar had the third-worst save percentage among goalies with 20+ games played last year.
The Flames could surprise, but this looks like a team that most playoff teams will pilfer for their talent before leaving the skeleton of a roster in need of an official teardown.
Bold Prediction: Calgary will finish with the league's worst record
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
FIRST ROUND
M4 New York Islanders def. A1 Florida Panthers
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs def. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes def. A4 Buffalo Sabres
M3 New Jersey Devils def. M2 New York Rangers
C1 Dallas Stars def. C4 Minnesota Wild
C2 Colorado Avalanche def. C3 Nashville Predators
P1 Edmonton Oilers def. C5 Utah Hockey Club
P2 Vancouver Canucks def. P3 Vegas Golden Knights
SECOND ROUND
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs def. M4 New York Islanders
M3 New Jersey Devils def. M1 Carolina Hurricanes
C1 Dallas Stars def. C2 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Edmonton Oilers def. P2 Vancouver Canucks
THIRD ROUND
M3 New Jersey Devils def. A2 Toronto Maple Leafs
C1 Dallas Stars def. P1 Edmonton Oilers
FINALS
C1 Dallas Stars def. M3 New Jersey Devils
AWARDS
Hart Memorial Trophy (Most Valuable Player)
1. Connor McDavid, EDM
2. Cale Makar, COL
3. Sebastian Aho, CAR
McDavid is the most obvious candidate for the MVP, given his status as the world's best player and his opportune placement on a team that should theoretically compete for the President's Trophy. If the Oilers falter, the door could be open. After a somewhat disappointing 23-24, I expect Makar to resume his trajectory to Bobby Orr levels of production, which should make him a shoo-in here. If Carolina wins their division, it'll be a team effort, but Aho's excellent 5-on-5 analytics and potential for 90 points might make him the face for Carolina's campaign.
James Norris Memorial Trophy (Best Defenseman)
1. Cale Makar, COL
2. Miro Heiskanen, DAL
3. Rasmus Dahlin, BUF
Evidently, I have high hopes for Makar. He's easily the safest choice for this award. Heiskanen has been improving offensively every single season. Considering the voters love points from defenseman, he could challenge for this title, even if his uninspiring potential D partner might drag down his chance prevention numbers. Dahlin would have to be a key part of Buffalo's season if they sneak into the playoffs. Of all the players in the field, he strikes me as the most likely to finish in the top-3 of Norris voting.
Vezina Trophy (Best Goaltender)
1. Stuart Skinner, EDM
2. Jake Oettinger, DAL
3. Ilya Sorokin, NYI
Skinner is a peculiar pick, because he is clearly an imperfect goalie. But he should rack up loads of wins and the team in front of him should help keep the puck out of the net. Oettinger makes it in by a similar virtue. I wouldn't call him a top-5 netminder in the league, but Dallas will be good and he should look better than he did last year. Sorokin is my personal favourite goaltender in the NHL, despite his struggles in 23-24. If Roy can keep the Isles a tight defensive unit, he will seize the starter's role back with vigour. I'd expect Sorokin at the top of the save percentage charts.
Calder Memorial Trophy (Best Rookie)
1. Cutter Gauthier, ANA
2. Matvei Michkov, PHI
3. Macklin Celebrini, SJS
The Calder race is going to be a bloodbath. If Anaheim are to exceed expectations, as I have predicted, Gauthier will have to be very productive. Michkov looks the be the most manly of all the rookies; he is so NHL-ready, despite his tender age. Celebrini is going to be thrown into an unfortunate circumstance, but he is a worthy first-overall pick and I expect that reputation bias will keep him in the mix.
Selke Trophy (Best Defensive Forward)
1. Nico Hischier, NJD
2. Aleksander Barkov, FLA
3. Matt Boldy, MIN
Barkov is seemingly holding a monopoly on this award (rightfully so, I might add). However, there has to be some voter fatigue that sets in eventually. The Devils have taken major steps to improving defensively. Hischier is a fantastic two-way centre that will have more tangibly good results with an actual goaltender between the pipes. Boldy is my player to watch this season. He's so underrated defensively and should only continue to score goals.
Jack Adams Award (Coach of the Year)
1. Greg Cronin, ANA
2. Kris Knoblauch, EDM
3. Lindy Ruff, BUF
I don't think anybody has predicted Anaheim to finish 4th, so if it happens, Cronin will be an easy Jack Adams favourite. Outside of that, Kris Knoblauch will be in contention, considering I assume that Edmonton will be a regular season force. Buffalo's playoff drought has become stuff of legend, so if Lindy Ruff is the one to help shatter it, he'll become a hero in the city.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK, ALL THREE ZONES, AND NHL.COM
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