NHL Mock Draft 3.0 - Post-Lottery Edition

Viggo Björck (Leila Devlin / Getty Images)

    In a shocking turn of events, the Toronto Maple Leafs did not forfeit their draft pick to their bitter rivals, the Boston Bruins, but instead, they shot up to the first pick of the upcoming NHL Entry Draft for the chance to pick a potential difference-maker, whether it be the Canadian playmaker Gavin McKenna, the Swedish star Ivar Stenberg, or any of the various hotly tipped defensive prospects. 

    With the lottery set in stone, it felt like a decent time to revisit my semi-regular mock draft exercise, particularly as the sun prepares to set on the junior hockey season. Although there are still meaningful games to be played before the draft cycle officially wraps up, the prospect hierarchy is nearly nailed down to a firm order. 

    As always, my words should not be taken as gospel. If I was a truly generational scouting talent, I wouldn't be sitting in a cabin in Madoc, Ontario as I write this, so my talent evaluation capabilities should hardly be deemed faultless. Regardless, I like to think I know hockey quite well and I've spent a good amount of time perusing data and video on each of the players referenced in this article, which ought to give me a respectable chance at coming to an appropriate conclusion. 

    Given the fact that this is a mock draft and not a big board of my personal rankings, I have accounted for team fit (whether it be based on positional need, recent drafting history, etc.) in the compilation of my list. 

1. Toronto Maple Leafs

Gavin McKenna
LW, Penn State (NCAA)
HT 6'0 WT 170 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #1

Style Comparison: Artemi Panarin

    After an incredible stroke of luck, the Toronto Maple Leafs landed the first overall pick after an absolutely miserable season, kickstarting the John Chayka era with an immensely crucial opportunity to add a superstar talent to the top of their lineup. While Gavin McKenna's trajectory as the preeminent player of this class has been rocky, his dominant end to the NCAA season quashed many of his detractors’ resounding criticisms. McKenna is an on-puck magician with special hands, a snappy release, and world-class processing vision. While his even strength impacts were muted at times in the increasingly difficult college hockey landscape, he projects as an instantly high-end power play weapon. McKenna's biggest improvement in the latter half of the season was his elevated ability to distribute off the rush. If he can continually build on his counterattacking game, there is absolutely a 100-point player to be moulded here. The Leafs have been pursuing a true #1 defenseman for decades, but passing on McKenna would be a potentially unwise decision, particularly if you, like me, believe that he is still ascending as a player.

2. San Jose Sharks

Keaton Verhoeff
RD, North Dakota (NCAA)
HT 6’4 WT 208 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #4

Style Comparison: Noah Dobson

    The vast majority of pundits have been tipping Soo blueliner Chase Reid to the Sharks at 2 to secure their future PP1 quarterback and beef up the defensive core of the future. While that remains an entirely feasible decision, I still imagine that Keaton Verhoeff is going to be a genuine option as high as the second overall pick. Despite his relative struggles as a college freshman, Verhoeff nevertheless displayed high-end traits, including a bomb of a shot and a tendency to throw bone-crushing hits, each of which are likely to earn him plaudits among NHL front offices. At this point in his development curve, most of his high-end traits are still projections, rather than fact, but there is reason to believe from some of his performances in the college hockey playoffs and the World Juniors that Verhoeff can vindicate a front office's faith in his ability. I am still quite worried about his choppy skating and inconsistencies with breaking the puck out against oncoming forecheck pressure, but the Sharks are well positioned to build up their defense with a war chest of talented forwards already on the roster.  

3. Vancouver Canucks

Ivar Stenberg 
LW, Frölunda (SHL)
HT 6'0 WT 180 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #2

Style Comparison: Jake Guentzel

    Given the Sharks' glaring need for a defenseman and Vancouver's obvious lack of pure top-line centers in their system, Ivar Stenberg has often slipped out of the top three in recent mock drafts. Frankly, I can't get around to that yet. Vancouver is not one pick away from getting back into contention; they should firmly be in best player available mode. Stenberg is a legitimate top-line winger with a variety of pro-ready tools which should bring a spark of enthusiasm to the Vancouver fanbase as early as next season. Stenberg has an excellent competitive gear and a never-ending motor, which he utilizes to their maximum potential to get into dirty areas on the ice and make plays. His playmaking brain is top-notch and he can score from anywhere. Though I wouldn't call him a genuine defensive asset yet, he has shown several flashes of impressive two-way play, which is rare in an 18-year-old player with this insane level of scoring juice. His strength on the puck leads me to believe he can be the rare winger that can meaningfully drive play at the top of the lineup against elite competition.

4. Chicago Blackhawks

Caleb Malhotra
C, Brantford (OHL)
HT 6’2 WT 183 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #6

Style Comparison: Nico Hischier

    Stenberg should be the target for Chicago at #4, but in this scenario, they decide to swing for the biggest riser of the draft process. Caleb Malhotra was arguably Brantford's best player during their recent run to the OHL Conference Final, demonstrating his usual two-way engagement and underrated playmaking ability. Most relevant to his draft stock were the plays he made with his feet. Skating had been a mild concern for scouts, but Malhotra showed off his wheels on several rush attacks and backchecks. His creative passing bag is very deep; he's perfectly comfortable executing hook passes, give-and-go dishes, and behind-the-back feeds in a tight window. I still believe he projects more as a secondary playmaker, but he is certainly manipulative, which can fool opposing defensive structures if they aren’t careful. Malhotra has an excellent defensive stick, which he uses to pickpocket pucks and push the pace of play the other way. His physicality game is not polished, but he has several years of development ahead of him. While this pick would leave Chicago with an influx of supremely talented young centers, none of Frank Nazar, Connor Bedard, or Anton Frondell have proven to be two-way beasts, so any of them could reasonably shift to the wing down the line. 

5. New York Rangers

Chase Reid
RD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
HT 6’2 WT 187 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #3

Style Comparison: Brandon Montour

    The New York Rangers struggled mightily for a second consecutive season, failing to make a spirited playoff push under veteran coach Mike Sullivan. After another poor year, GM Chris Drury seems willing to commit to a retool of sorts. If that is the guiding ideology in the room, best player available makes sense. Reid is explosive offensively and he never shies from jumping up into the play. Off the rush, there are very few D prospects with the risk-taking antics and elite skills that can match Reid. At his best, he's supremely escapable and mobile on the blue line. Some people seem a bit too content to dismiss his defensive flaws right away, solely because he has the frame of a good defender. Reid has admittedly shown signs of professional gap control and physicality, but he still makes semi-regular gaffes with the puck and can be weak in boxouts at the net-front. For the Rangers, there could be a major skills overlap between Reid and Adam Fox, but Fox's future in the Big Apple is far from assured. 

6. Calgary Flames

Alberts Šmits
LD, Jukurit (Liiga)
HT 6’3 WT 205 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #8 

Style Comparison: Mikhail Sergachev

    The Flames have quietly done a solid job of accruing gifted young players to fit throughout their roster, but the high-end talent is still lacking on both sides of the puck. Latvian defenseman Alberts Šmits possesses a high-ceiling case and would be worth a shot in this range. Šmits has been a favourite among draft gurus for most of the season, but I'm a tad hesitant to coronate him already. Šmits has been playing against men in Europe all season, consistently leaning on his massive frame to win puck battles against grown adults. Even at the Olympics, he played a hefty role for his country and held his own against superstars like Germany's Leon Draisaitl. Nevertheless, his hockey sense still scares me a bit. On the puck, he often struggles to create easy solutions, which leads to overcomplicated forced passes into coverage. Without the puck, his in-zone coverage is rather sketchy. He has the body to bully players off the cycle or in the slot, but his positional lapses are still problematic. However, the list of impressive tools is long, and if Šmits can package together his explosive shot, strong frame, and rapid skating, he'll become a major asset.

7. Seattle Kraken

Carson Carels
LD, Prince George (WHL)
HT 6’2 WT 194 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #5

Style Comparison: Shea Theodore

    Carson Carels is a player that has rapidly been gaining steam after flashing some offensive ability in big minutes during Prince George's postseason run. However, Carels doesn't pop off the page as much as some of his fellow draft-eligible rearguards. He plays a safe and projectable game, driven by his elite hockey IQ and excellent skating. Carels is unbelievably fluid and mobile in all directions for a player of his age. In some instances, he uses this to jump into the rush and punish unprepared defensive coverage schemes, but he usually opts to utilize his skating to augment his suffocating defensive presence. He can beat most players to 50/50 puck battles while using his strong stick as a disruptive tool to angle opposing skaters towards the outside lanes. I wouldn't count on significant offensive production at the NHL level and he does take undisciplined penalties far too often as a result of overeager leveraging of his physical traits, but the floor is very high for Carels. He should, at the very least, be a respectable top-four defenseman for a Seattle team that loves their WHL prospects and needs fresh legs on the back end.

8. Winnipeg Jets

Daxon Rudolph
RD, Prince Albert (WHL)
HT 6’2 WT 203 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #10

Style Comparison: Brandt Clarke

    A late rally pushed the Jets out of the mix for a top-5 pick, but I still suspect that there could be a great player available at #8. After a President's Trophy in 2025, Winnipeg opted to replace their departing skill players with wily veteran presence, a gamble that backfired spectacularly. Picking the highly energetic and fast Daxon Rudolph as a bet to freshen up their defense could be the appropriate salve to that misguided decision. Rudolph is a tall and powerful right-handed shot D, but his offensive potential is the real selling point. Rudolph should be a fantastic puck-mover who can drive plays in transition and create dangerous opportunities with his shot and his playmaking. He's equally a solid skater with promising fundamentals in his lower legs. Despite the various tools, he still makes too many risky plays with the puck and he can get caught watching plays develop in front of him. I doubt that he'll ever be trusted with difficult matchup minutes, but he is one of the few defensemen in this class that could possibly run a PP1 unit, which might earn him brownie points amidst league circles. As Josh Morrissey continues to grow older, Winnipeg could opt to select the player that tied Morrissey’s longstanding Prince Albert record for goals from a defenseman. 

9. Florida Panthers

Ethan Belchetz
LW, Windsor (OHL)
HT 6’5 WT 228 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #11

Style Comparison: Aliaksei Protas

    The Panthers are in a position that is simultaneously enviable and tricky. While most NHL fans rightfully assume that the Panthers are going to be a Cup threat again in 2027 when their captain Aleksander Barkov and other peripheral players return to full health, the Cats' honeymoon period has introduced some frustrating trends. Contracts offered to veteran stars in their deep 30s was a short-term dart throw that hasn't paid off yet. If Florida can find cheap contributors on an entry-level contract, it could maintain their Cup ceiling. Thus, this pick is fundamentally an era-defining selection. While Florida could go in a number of directions, Windsor winger Ethan Belchetz may be on the docket. He has a rare combination of size and true skill. At 6'5, very few players have his soft hands and playmaking potential, particularly not at this age. However, Belchetz hasn't learned how to consistently apply his effort and body to wreak havoc in the corners or at the net. Physical traits take much longer to develop than a more aggressive mindset, but bad habits could cause a long slide down draft boards. For now, I'll still keep him in my top 10, but I'm getting slightly worried that Belchetz could fall out of the lottery entirely when the draft rolls around. 

10. Nashville Predators

Malte Gustafsson
LD, HV71 (U20 Nationell)
HT 6’4 WT 200 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #12

Style Comparison: Simon Edvinsson

    When a defenseman with elite mobility skills and a massive frame comes along, the hockey world generally ignites with excitement, but Malte Gustafsson has oddly slid under the radar for most of the year. I've been banging the drum for him as a top-10 pick and Nashville makes a lot of sense as a landing spot. Formerly thought of as a defenseman factory, the Preds have failed to develop any true top-of-the-lineup blueliner in a while. Gustafsson is already an excellent rush defender with his impressive lateral movement, active stick, and gap control. Even if he fails to stick to the basics, he has the recovery speed to snuff plays out before they become overly threatening. I think that he could augment his offensive game to truly cement his status as a lottery player, but his defensive profile is so impressive that I would be comfortable with him in this range on my big board. If he can tighten his puck touches in the retrieval game and flash more creativity with the puck, this pick could be seen as a steal in a few years. 

11. St. Louis Blues

Viggo Björck
C, Djurgårdens IF (SHL)
HT 5'10 WT 172 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #7

Style Comparison: Zach Benson

    At a diminutive 5'10, Viggo Björck's path to NHL stardom might not be as clear as others in this range, but that shouldn't be taken as an immediate denial of his potential ceiling case. Björck profiles similarly to other small players that have beat the odds to succeed in the NHL. He builds his game around hockey IQ, a ceaseless drive to push to the middle of the ice, and elite puck skill. Björck thinks the game a step ahead of his peers, whether they be in the U18 age group or at the SHL level. He is also comfortable making plays in traffic; despite the listed weight, he has no problem establishing space for himself in open ice with physical contact. I'm not certain that he projects as an offensive maestro, because I consistently find myself wanting more with his final puck touch, but I'm highly confident that he will be a useful player in any context. Due to the NHL's primitive approach to player evaluation, Björck will likely fall out of the top-10, but the Blues, a team with three first-round picks, could be emboldened to take the upside swing on a player that could absolutely challenge for a top-5 slot on my big board.

12. New Jersey Devils

Wyatt Cullen
RW, USNTDP (USHL)
HT 6’0 WT 172 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #16

Style Comparison: Nikolaj Ehlers

    The Devils have a plethora of defensemen, so the strategy here should be simple: take the highest upside forward that can elevate their existing talent as early as possible in their contention window. With his recent rise up the draft rankings, Wyatt Cullen could be a possibility. Cullen has had a ridiculous growth spurt this year, which has elevated him into the public sphere. Cullen has high-end hands and the ability to slow the game down through direction changes and deceptive puck touches. His ability to navigate through traffic and force pucks into the slot is quite reminiscent of Nikolaj Ehlers, one of my favourite skill players in the league. As you would expect from a high-end puck wizard that is being mocked outside of the top-5, he has other warts in his game that could lead teams to look elsewhere. For instance, he hasn't discovered how to use his newly beefed up frame to attack in the offensive zone and he hangs onto the puck for too long, which can kill momentum in dangerous environments. Regardless, he is excellent at controlling possession and manufacturing spaces, which should make him a valuable NHL forward. Adding Cullen's undeniable skill to a lineup that already includes Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Nico Hischier is a mouthwatering proposition. 

13. New York Islanders

Tynan Lawrence
C, Boston University (NCAA)
HT 6’0 WT 185 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #9

Style Comparison: Bo Horvat

    After nailing the first overall pick last year by stumbling into a generational blueline talent in Matthew Schaefer, the New York Islanders' future suddenly looks rather exciting. Players like Kashawn Aitcheson and Victor Eklund enjoyed solid D+1 seasons and should be positive contributors for the NHL club sooner than later. However, beyond Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat, the Isles look thin down the middle. Tynan Lawrence was considered to be in the first overall conversation at an early point during the draft process, but an inability to manufacture consistent offense at the college level became too much to ignore for scouts around the league. Lawrence is a bull in a china shop, a veritable chaos merchant that plays the game at a breakneck pace in any context. Although his lack of finish and polish might cap him from reaching a true 1C level, I still have confidence in Lawrence to be a great player down the middle through his sheer competitiveness and motor. He's a strong, but not world-class, skater, but Lawrence looks blazing fast in open ice through his pure power. Even as one of the NCAA's youngest players, Lawrence was eventually able to showcase his defensive chops. He projects to be a strong face-off taker in his prime and his proactive defensive positioning is mature. Even if the offensive potential is capped at a 20-goal, 50-point season, I still believe that Lawrence would be a valuable middle-sixer for the next generation of Islanders hockey.

14. Columbus Blue Jackets

Oscar Hemming
LW, Boston College (NCAA)
HT 6’4 WT 198 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #17

Style Comparison: Tom Wilson

    The Columbus Blue Jackets looked poised to make the playoffs after a dramatic resurgence under Rick Bowness, but injuries and fatigue sapped their momentum. Eventually, this Blue Jackets rebuild needs to be accelerated before their current stars in the Kirill Marchenko and Adam Fantilli tier hit the open market. For now, Columbus will have to resort to looking at upgrading their pipeline or potentially using this asset for a win-now piece through the trade market. If they opt for the former, adding to their thin winger cupboard seems rational. Oscar Hemming didn't play professional organized hockey until the new year, but his overall game was fairly impressive at Boston College. Although the counting stats were not extravagant, Hemming looked content to throw reverse hits on players with age and experience over him. He projects as a player who should be able to effectively drive the inside at the NHL level through his strength and ability in traffic. The playmaking bag is deeper than you would expect from a traditional strong power forward, but it still needs work. I personally have questions about if Hemming can truly establish himself as a top-six winger, but if he can slot behind Kent Johnson, Marchenko, and Dmitri Voronkov in the winger depth chart, Columbus would be in a great position. 

15. St. Louis Blues (via Detroit Red Wings)

Oliver Suvanto
C, Tappara (Liiga)
HT 6’3 WT 209 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #19

Style Comparison: Jordan Staal

    As with many players in this class, Oliver Suvanto's floor is extremely high, but the ceiling is rightly debated. Very few 17-year-olds are built like Suvanto: he's an absolute tank and he can stay strong on his feet through contact due to a wide base and excellent contact details. He is already a pro-ready defensive center, who can lock plays down in the defensive zone by blocking lanes to the middle and backchecking energetically. The offensive potential probably comes down to causing chaos at the net-front as a screener, but Suvanto also has a heavy release and a tendency to attack soft spots of the ice that would be more typical of a lighter player. I'm eager to monitor how his puck skills develop at the NHL level. For St. Louis, if they identify Viggo Björck as a scouting prerogative, mitigating that possible risk with a near-certain NHLer with their pick from Detroit (acquired in the Justin Faulk deal) seems logical. The Blues have the play-drivers in place already, so acquiring young contributors for prominent secondary roles is the best method to accelerate their retool process. 

16. Washington Capitals

Alexander Command
C, Örebro HK U20 (U20 Nationell)
HT 6’1 WT 187 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #26

Style Comparison: Yanni Gourde

    At this point of the draft, mocking becomes borderline impossible, especially a month out from the actual event. Nevertheless, I feel good in associating Washington with Alexander Command, a Swedish center who excelled at the recent World U18s tournament. Command lacks the traits that are typical of a high-end top-six center, but I'd earmark him to be a good bet for a tough 3C role with sparkling analytical numbers. His motor is nonstop, which allows him to win puck battles through sheer energy and effort. While his east-west creativity doesn't jump off the page, he definitely has underrated passing vision and he consistently makes impressively mature reads under pressure. The Capitals have done an excellent job with their pro scouting and they've identified several under-the-radar steals in recent drafts, though they have generally stockpiled small, skilled wingers. Finding a reliable defenseman with this pick (I could see Ryan Lin going here) or a high-probability NHL center in Command would add a new element to their prospect cupboard to freshen up the post-Alex Ovechkin era. 

HEIGHTS AND WEIGHTS COURTESY OF ELITEPROSPECTS

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