Macklin Celebrini (Getty Images)
The return of best-on-best to the Winter Olympics was, predictably, an immensely satisfying experience that has dominated my attention and monopolized my television set for the past week. Although the dramatic highs of the 4 Nations final have not yet been eclipsed, the action will start to ramp up even more in the coming days as the elimination round begins.
With a brief Monday reprieve, I figured it was an appropriate time to take a quick retrospective at the group stages so far and offer some of my signature insight on the happenings of the men's preliminary round. Unlike most of my recent prospect rankings and mock drafts, this article will generally be quite aimless, resembling a series of point-form notes more than anything else. It is incredibly easy to overreact to a sample size of three games and make vast, overly broad claims about the state of the game and the players, so I'll steer clear of any significant overreactions. Nevertheless, I think in the flurry of action with which we have been blessed, there's ample opportunity to pause and reflect on some interesting takeaways from the Olympics thus far.
I'll attempt to cover every team, but naturally, the depth of my observations will vary significantly. For instance, I have a lot less to say about France or Italy than I do for the United States of America or Canada, because many of my musings will tie back to the NHL writ large.
Group A
Canada
-I don't have any unique or interesting takes about Jordan Binnington. He's not a very good goalie in a vacuum and I'd personally rather Logan Thompson start in a prospective matchup against the United States, but there is no point arguing about it now. Binnington is locked up for the start. At the end of the day, Canada has the horses up front to keep up with the USA, even if their goaltending matchup doesn't look favourable on paper. I don't think he'll be the reason they lose, but I still wouldn't have the utmost confidence in Binnington to keep things tight at the back.
-Macklin Celebrini is generational. As the second-youngest men's hockey player at the Olympics, he is tied for the tournament lead in goals and is tied for second in points. Canada's Celebrini-McDavid-MacKinnon line is undeniably the most talented trio to ever touch Olympic ice and the warp speed hockey that Jon Cooper can turn to at any moment is Canada's main reason for optimism.
-Bo Horvat wasn't a popular pick for Canada, because his shooting percentage was extravagantly high at the time of his selection, but he has really flashed in all of the preliminary round games. His aggressive, bulldozing style has presented Canada with some genuine offensive firepower on the fourth line. He's been quite threatening in the bumper slot on PP2 as well. I like him a lot as a fourth line option, but I wonder if he could see some minutes higher in the lineup. The Marner-Crosby-Stone trio has been together in every game, but I still think Crosby needs more pace on his wings. I wonder if Horvat could replace Marner if that line isn't clicking against the Americans.
-Nathan MacKinnon's role so far has been confusing to say the least. He's leading Canada's "third" line with Brandon Hagel and Nick Suzuki, but that trio has been the least successful Canadian group at even strength, despite Hagel's 5v5 goalscoring prowess, Suzuki's well-rounded two-way game, and MacKinnon's unmatched pace-power mix. I like the idea of mixing him in with shifts on the Celebrini-McDavid line, while still giving him the chance to center his own unit, but Jon Cooper may look to switch up his wingers. Switching Hagel with Marner, for instance, is a possible option. Hagel would provide some speed and forechecking to the Crosby line, while Marner's cerebral complementary style might suit MacKinnon, who likes his teammates to just get him the puck and then get out of the way.
-Sam Bennett is obviously a flawed player, but he suits international hockey so well. As the 13th forward, he has the skill and pace to rotate through any of Canada's four lines and bring relentless energy, especially with a congested neutral zone incentivizing ground-and-pound hockey. By contrast, Sam Reinhart has disappointed at best-on-best hockey showcases for seven games now. Reinhart is a perennial playoff riser with supreme defensive nous, but the puck is dying on his stick far too often dating back to the 4 Nations tournament last February, especially on the power play.
-I'm not sold on Canada's D corps completely, but one of the biggest positives out of the first three games was their solidity in their own zone. Thomas Harley was a contentious pick for the roster, but he has been so smooth and a consistent threat off the rush. His give-and-go passing has been an ideal fit with McDavid in transition, as illustrated by the goal they connected on against Switzerland. Drew Doughty has also been very good after catching some criticism through his play in Los Angeles this season. In my opinion, if your depth blueliners can provide the meat and potatoes with strong 1v1 play, a long reach, and an effective retrieval game, you'll be set. Canada doesn't need a Cale Makar on every pairing, even if I still think Matthew Schaefer would have absolutely been good enough to flex his chops at this level.
Switzerland
-The Swiss are a bona fide hockey nation now. They might not medal at these Games, especially after losing their most potent rush threat in Kevin Fiala to a freak accident, but they were easily the team that gave Canada the biggest challenge, particularly in the first period of their matchup. Back-to-back silver medals at the IIHF World Championships have solidified their place in the upper echelon of hockey nations, but I think people still largely underrate this team. To me, outside of the four obvious countries (and Russia), Switzerland is the best international hockey team in the world right now.
-Roman Josi is the archetypal captain for a smaller hockey nation. As he slows down relative to his NHL peers, Josi can still display his class in spades, as he did during the group stage. He remains one of the best puck-moving defensemen out there, even as my confidence in his abilities as a 1D for Nashville wanes. As good as he has been, things look far bleaker for the Swiss if Andrea Glauser, his D partner, misses any more time after a concussion scare in the Canada game.
-JJ Moser is rightfully getting lots of praise for his eye-popping on-ice metrics as Tampa's top shutdown defenseman this season, but I still think that he warrants more credit. He is one of the best examples of the Lightning's pro scouting team working its magic. His eight-year extension with an average annual cap hit of $6.75 million will likely be one of the best contracts in the league for the next few years. Watch the nasty goal he scored against France if you haven't seen it yet.
-Fiala's absence will make an upset over Finland in the theoretical quarterfinal a fairly tall task, but the Swiss are uniquely positioned to give the Finns a fit. Miro Heiskanen is a spectacular puck-mover, but Finland's other defensemen don't excel in the puck-moving department. Even Esa Lindell, who I rate highly as an in-zone defender, can't always break the puck out with ease, usually deferring to his Dallas teammate, Heiskanen. The Swiss were the only team to really give Canada problems on the forecheck, targeting the right players as triggers for their pressure game. I think the likes of Timo Meier could really feast down low on the cycle against Finland if the Swiss dispatch Italy in the playoff round.
-Sven Andrighetto had a decent NHL career and has been a point-producing demon overseas since he left North America, so he isn't exactly an unknown, but he has been just as good as some of Switzerland's current NHLers.
Czechia
-At best-on-best, you simply cannot afford to have a low baseline performance from your depth players, even if the high-end talent looks good on paper. Czechia's lack of NHL-caliber D killed them during the group stage. Struggles to clear the front of the net and to break the puck out were evident in the non-Filip Hronek minutes. I don't want to use this opportunity to point-score about my player evaluation capabilities, but I've never been a big David Jiricek fan and the fact that he wasn't chosen for this team is a pretty damning evaluation of his future NHL chances.
-If his play in Boston this year hasn't been enough to convince you, David Pastrnak was electric enough in Czechia's games to seal his status as a top-8 player in the world and the second best winger out there, behind only Nikita Kucherov. A guy that I once considered a shot-first player is one of the most elite playmakers in the NHL nowadays, which is a testament to his game-breaking skill. He made an utterly ridiculous play on the wall to beat two backcheckers in the first period against Canada and his chemistry with Martin Necas was evident from the start. That duo is the only instrument that the Czechs possess to pull off an upset against Canada in the elimination round.
-David Kampf was weirdly quite good against Canada. He's one of the least threatening forwards in the league with the puck on his stick, but I still think multiple contenders (perhaps a Minnesota or Detroit) could do with a face-off-winning, defensive ace like him in the playoffs. He's worth more than he will likely go for at the deadline.
-I'm not sure why Karel Vejmelka, a huge driving factor behind Utah's playoff hopes, hasn't gotten a chance to seize the starter's reins yet. Lukas Dostal hasn't been incredibly convincing between the pipes and Dan Vladar had a truly horrendous five minute span against the French during the group stage matchup.
France
-Stephane Da Costa is a great "puck knowledge" pull from the early 2010s, as his skill level always popped in Ottawa. I distinctly remember him getting absolutely levelled by Dion Phaneuf in a Battle of Ontario, so it was cool to see his talent shine through on a pretty hopeless France team.
-I really thought Alexandre Texier would excel in a setting where he could be more puck-dominant, but he was stuck on the periphery in the games I watched and his back-breaking mistake against Mark Stone that led to the slowest breakaway goal scored at the tournament was a mark of his worst habits.
-Pierre Crinon was pretty lousy at this tournament and an illegal check to Nathan MacKinnon's head during a rout against Canada was pathetic, but his absolute beatdown of Tom Wilson was arguably France's best moment at Milano-Cortina, so maybe the controversy surrounding his inclusion on this team was slightly overblown. (EDIT: he's now been banned by his own national federation from playing at the rest of this tournament, so don't listen to me)
-In about 15 years, I hope one of my friends says the name "Louis Boudon" to me, because his random 5-minute heat check in the second period against Czechia was truly one of the most remarkable things I've seen at these Games.
Group B
Slovakia
-The Slovak power play is a real weapon. There's a few routes to executing upsets in a one game showcase and a lethal power play is one of those tools. The Dalibor Dvorsky-Juraj Slafkovsky-Simon Nemec apex has been a real treat to watch and has generated the vast majority of high-danger chances for the Slovakian team. I'm still more skeptical of Slovakia's ability to dig in on the forecheck and I'm not pencilling them in for the semis right now, despite a fairly easy route, but Germany (or France) will have to remain disciplined to avoid getting trounced by a Slovak team with one of the highest gears in this tournament.
-Another recipe for an upset is a hot goalie and Samuel Hlavaj has dispelled many critics with a highly impressive .934 SV% and 2.5 GSAA in his games so far. Looking at Hlavaj's AHL numbers and contrasting them with his stats against much better competition is funny and illustrates that environment is the best predictor of a goalie's likelihood of success. NHL teams, after a decade of investing major resources into goalie development, have also started to turn to this school of thought. Think of the Oilers with Tristan Jarry (acquired for pennies on the dollar), the Avalanche with their 2025 bets on Scott Wedgwood and Mackenzie Blackwood, and the Carolina Hurricanes with their waiver claim of current starter Brandon Bussi. I'm curious if this trend continues with an exponentially rising cap or if teams use their newfound cap space to invest in the crease.
-It would be easy to accuse Slafkovsky of being an "Olympic merchant," given how drastic his goal per game numbers have been inflated in his two tastes of Olympic hockey, but this does a disservice to the massive improvements that he has taken in Montreal over the past two seasons. I was never a full believer in "Slaf," but I'm gradually getting there. He has truly developed into a do-it-all power forward that has been the heart and soul on an incredibly young and inexperienced unit comprising of himself, Oliver Kapanen, and Ivan Demidov. Slafkovsky has become an impactful two-way player as well; I personally believe the experience of embracing a heavy defensive load alongside two rookies who tend to cheat for offense will be highly beneficial in the long-term for his growth.
-Nemec is such a perplexing player to me. The puck-moving juice is so obvious that his struggles to tilt the ice at the NHL level are probably temporary, but his defensive deficiencies are clear and likely won't go away in a hurry. Nevertheless, he has been absolutely fantastic at driving offense in this tournament so far. His 3.7 chance assists per game was easily the highest mark among blueliners during the group stage and ranks fourth among all players, behind just Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Nikolaj Ehlers. Despite that, he had just two assists (one on the power play and one as a power play had just expired) and was a -2, in admittedly tough minutes. Finding a reasonable projection for Nemec's upside is immensely difficult. I don't think he can ever be a top-pair player, but he is far more skilled as a passer and puck-handler at the line than he has shown in Sheldon Keefe's stifling Devils system. He might be a prime candidate for a change of scenery-induced glow-up.
-A very good explanation for Nemec's success at this tournament could be his D partner, Martin Fehervary. The Capitals' rearguard is one of the most underrated 1v1 defenders in the NHL and his performance against Mikko Rantanen in the Olympic opener was pretty superb.
Finland
-Although Sweden has far more NHL talent, the Finns still strike me as the European nation that is the most likely to compete for a medal at this tournament. The short neutral zone has been a key topic of discussion in terms of how it has limited transition opportunities and forced teams into a dump-and-chase game. Out of all teams, aside from maybe the Americans, this suits Finland's strengths the most. They've been the most proficient team on the cycle so far and one of the best forechecking teams in the tournament. That shouldn't be much of a surprise given their personnel, especially in the bottom-six (Anton Lundell, Eetu Luostarinen, Joel Armia, Kaapo Kakko, Artturi Lehkonen), but it was still astonishing to see how readily they executed set plays from dump-ins. Against Canada's D corps in a hypothetical semifinal, which doesn't excel at breaking the puck out, Finland could definitely put players like Colton Parayko under duress.
-Miro Heiskanen makes hockey look so effortless. It's easy to argue that he has been passed by some of his peers because Heiskanen doesn't get involved in the rush as often as guys like Zach Werenski and Evan Bouchard, but there is no denying that he is one of the most dominant players at tilting the ice in the entire league. If he can play 30+ minutes in the knockout round, Finland can beat any team because of his sheer ridiculousness as a puck-mover.
-The Finnish power play has been far too inept for a unit with Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz, and Sebastian Aho. Rantanen is one of the league's most dangerous power play threats; he's obviously a world-class shooter, but he also happens to be supremely good for a big man at distributing the puck in tight spaces. Getting a clear system set up around Rantanen moving pucks to the bumper slot is crucial. Finland's share of slot shots has been very impressive, even if it is rather skewed by a fundamentally unfair pounding of Italy, but finding more ways to manufacture offense beyond the forecheck is so important.
-Finland will go as far as Juuse Saros can take them. He leads the tourney in GSAA so far, in part due to his own brilliance, but mainly because he has played in all three games. Saros' rebound control was a real issue against Slovakia and he was outplayed by the inexperienced Hlavaj. However, he was strong against Sweden in a tight game. On his day, Saros is one of the best in the world, but we haven't seen the Vezina-contending Saros on a consistent basis in a while.
Sweden
Rasmus Dahlin and William Nylander (Getty Images)
-What exactly are Sam Hallam's credentials to be leading the Swedish national team at the first best-on-best Olympics in 12 years? His deployment of Sweden's skill players has been downright criminal in all three of the round robin games. In a surprisingly tight game against Italy, Hallam kept Filip Forsberg, the highest-scoring Swedish player this season, buried on the bench for 59 minutes of the game. Against Finland, Forsberg instantly provided a spark and worked his way back into Hallam's plans. However, he has only done so at the expense of Jesper Bratt, who has been very threatening on a per-minute basis, but has since been ignored by Hallam in the past two games. Sweden is, on paper, the third best roster at this showcase and they have the talent to pull off an improbable upset of the USA if Hallam doesn't hold them back.
-Call me a Leafs homer all you want, but I can't name 15 players better than William Nylander in the NHL. At a tournament where speed has been neutralized by passive defensive schemes that sag off the rush, Nylander has really popped with his foot speed in transition. According to Dimitri Filipovic's tracking, Nylander is the only player to rank in the top-10 for forecheck chances, rebound chances, and rush chances per game. He's flat-out one of the most devastating offensive threats in the world.
-I don't think many teams understood just how impactful the short neutral zone would be as a barrier to producing offense, but Sweden is definitely one of the nations that has been most impacted by this Olympic-style hockey. When teams start to push the pace and come in with waves of forechecking pressure, Sweden lacks the legs on the back end to reliably exit the zone. Victor Hedman is still a spectacular player, but he has really struggled to deal with the pace in isolated moments. Considering how little Oliver Ekman-Larsson has played, I still can't reconcile with the fact that Sweden left promising young defenseman Simon Edvinsson at home. Edvinsson's long reach and smooth retrieval game are elements that are sorely lacking on this Swedish blueline.
-Lucas Raymond is the future of Swedish hockey. His third period performance against Slovakia, barring a bad penalty that let Slovakia score to win the group, was among the highest peaks I've seen from a forward at the Olympics so far (up there with Draisaitl v Latvia, McDavid v Czechia, Slafkovsky v Finland, and Matthews v Germany). That's pretty solid company. He has consistently flashed top-of-the-line skill at these events and looks like one of the best players in the world whenever I see him match up against the world's best.
Italy
-Some goalies thrive with a heavier workload and Damian Clara seems to be a part of that group. He's had a rough year in the SHL, but physical tools are never to be discounted for goalies. A 6'6 goalie will always have a place in the league, but Clara still seems like a backup at best in the Show. That would nevertheless be a hugely successful development story for a nation that hasn't produced an NHLer since Sean Bentivoglio's cup of coffee with the Islanders.
-Nic Petan has a brother? An Italian brother???
-I can't say I'm very familiar with anybody on this roster, so I'll opt for macroanalysis: this team actually really impressed me in their first two games. They were putting legitimate pressure on a Swedish D corps made up of 7 NHLers and then they stuck around against an impressive Slovak team. Unfortunately, they then followed that up with one of the most depressing performances I've ever seen against Finland, so maybe I'm being too nice here.
Group C
United States of America
The Americans celebrate a victory (Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)
-I swear I'm not just using this column to defend my beloved Leafs, but even as a highly partisan Canadian, I'm so happy to see Auston Matthews dominate at this tournament. Matthews was catching random strays from American media after "only" potting one goal against Latvia, but he was predictably territorially dominant in the second half against Denmark and outright dominant from minute 1 to minute 60 of the final game against Germany. The US has a ridiculous amount of offensive difference-makers, but Matthews is still the guy that scares me the most among the forwards on this roster, with Jack Eichel close behind.
-In a one-game elimination final for all the marbles, Tage Thompson's bullet shot becomes exponentially more important. The US had the lion's share of chances in the 4 Nations final, even without Quinn Hughes, their defining creative force, but they didn't have the gamebreaking capacity to manufacture a goal out of nothing. Thompson's ability to score from range or down low on the power play is so tantalizing for a US team that might just need one singular moment to get the jump on Canada in the presumptive gold medal game.
-Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are absolutely the best players at their respective position in the league, but I always considered them to be in a tier of their own with the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Werenski, and Miro Heiskanen in Tier 2 behind them. I'm starting to rethink this theory. Werenski is so incredibly good at all facets of the game. His activation style is aggressive and potent, but he can also play a domineering defensive game. I'm at the point where I'd be ready to call Werenski a top-10 player on the planet. Dahlin and Makar are the only players with more individual chances per game among blueliners, even though Werenski's playing just over 18 minutes a night.
-Jack Hughes started the tourney on a de facto fourth line, but he has absolutely popped on every single shift. His give-and-go chemistry with Brock Nelson has been one of the Americans' most reliable sources of chance creation. While the concept of a guy with the true talent to pot 100 points in the NHL in your bottom-six is appealing, I still think Mike Sullivan can unlock more scoring juice by cycling him through with Matthews and Guentzel on occasion. Realistically, the Tkachuk-Eichel-Tkachuk trio is the only line that I think doesn't warrant any tinkering.
-Surprise, surprise: JT Miller and Vincent Trocheck rank last among US forwards in chances and chance assists through three games. I'm not even an advocate for taking the 13 most skilled players and trying to fit square pegs into round holes, because depth players with well-rounded skillsets are very useful. However, this States team has looked disjointed and frustrated more often than Canada and I think there is still a good chance that the roster snubs (ex. Jason Robertson, Cole Caufield) come back to bite the US if Canada can build an early lead over them.
Germany
-In early September, I deviated from consensus slightly when I picked Leon Draisaitl over Nathan MacKinnon as the second best player in the world. While it would be easy to backtrack, especially during MacKinnon's nuclear season, I'm going to double down and say that Draisaitl is still the best player not named McDavid in the world. His utter play-driving dominance against Denmark and Latvia was the stuff of legends. Even though he was largely kept quiet against the US (likely because he had emptied the tank with 29 minutes played the prior evening), he still ranks first for chances and second for chances created so far, behind only his Oilers teammate.
-Separately, I like how Germany has been using Draisaitl. They have used him with Frederik Tiffels and fellow Oiler Josh Samanski for the most part, while double-shifting him on a line with Tim Stützle and JJ Peterka, two of the most electric players in the NHL. Stützle has been amazing so far, ranking 10th among players for chance contributions, ahead of the likes of Mikko Rantanen, Jack Eichel, Macklin Celebrini, and Nathan MacKinnon. Peterka has caught some flak this season after his trade from Buffalo has yielded such amazing returns for the Sabres, but we can separately admire Peterka and his trade partner, Josh Doan. Peterka is a deadly rush threat and has found a way to be remarkably effective even in the tight space hockey of Milano-Cortina.
-Like I said earlier, advocating for a player to get an NHL shot off the back of three games is downright foolish, but Tiffels has jumped off the screen more than most non-NHLers so far. He's a former Penguins draft pick that has lit up the increasingly competitive DEL for Einsbären Berlin in the past few seasons. He might just be an AHL tweener, but I've seen the playmaking chops to keep up in an NHL middle-six, while I reckon he could also be a positive all-around contributor for a fourth line.
-Germany haven't lived up to their darkhorse stature yet, but this is still a team I consider to be quite capable of playing spoiler. They cannot beat the USA or Canada with their depth, but I could see them knocking off Sweden, Finland, or Slovakia at some point in the knockout round. Draisaitl has taken on the heaviest load in the tournament so far, but we haven't seen Moritz Seider cross the 30-minute mark, which he is capable of doing. The Germans might get buried when they send out their bottom-six, but if you can have Draisaitl, Seider, Stützle, and Peterka playing 25+ minutes in tight knockout round hockey, this team can be a real handful.
Denmark
-All you have to do is search up "Ehlers" on Sincere Sports to see lavish praise for the Hurricanes star. I've always felt that Ehlers is one of those players that can dominate when a team makes him the main man. His play for Denmark so far has validated my belief in him. Only McDavid and Draisaitl have set up more chances than Ehlers through three games. The short neutral zone has hindered a lot of renown NHL stars, but Ehlers has had no issue entering the offensive zone and carrying the puck up the ice. His hesitation game and control in tight are genuinely world-class. I reckon he might need to get a bit more selfish to carry Denmark, though, as their overall offensive game has left a lot to be desired.
-Nick Olesen has been a Danish warrior at the IIHF World Championships for a while now, but it's still undeniably cool to see him on three goals through three games. The Danes have split up their attack for the most part, with Olesen playing on the third line, but he could be an option to play with Ehlers if Denmark needs a shot in the arm or if Oliver Bjorkstrand can't find a spark.
-Oscar Fisker Molgaard is firmly in the "stocks up" category of NHL prospects at these Olympic Games. The Kraken youngster has the skillset of a valuable fourth-liner with his strong defensive details and clean connective passes, but he has shown real playmaking upside in a 3C role. I think this could be a real difference-making middle-sixer for a Seattle team that is desperate for a bit more flair.
-Oliver Lauridsen was a former NHL draft pick that got into 16 games as a Philadelphia Flyer and I thought he looked like he belonged here. At 6'6, 205 pounds, he is a real physical, hard-working defenseman who didn't get bogged down. Frederik Andersen has been solid so far in his action for Denmark, but players like Lauridsen will need to hold down the fort to give Denmark any upset chance. Oliver's brother, Markus, was no slouch either, playing 20+ minutes in every game.
Latvia
-I'm still not all the way there on Alberts Smits as a top-5 pick in the upcoming NHL draft, but he has held up well as the youngest player at these Olympics. He is unfazed (perhaps to a fault) when faced with oncoming pressure. His confidence really stands out on a Latvian team that typically tends to stay flat and absorb pressure, rather than pushing the play forward. However, my skepticism has always been driven by his sketchy in-zone defense and I still have my concerns. In isolated moments, he got dragged out of position and he stood out as one of Latvia's most exploitable defensemen. For such a strong young man, he loses body positioning at the net front far too often. Nevertheless, he has helped his case to be a top pick in June. I'd probably have him in the 8-9 range right now on my board, up from 11th in December.
-I thought I'd made a real discovery when I tuned into Latvia's game against Denmark and saw Eduards Tralmaks wreaking havoc against a tight Danish defensive group. Apparently, he's not as unknown as I thought, as he is one of the top forwards for the AHL juggernaut Grand Rapids Griffins, the affiliate for the Detroit Red Wings. He looked like an NHL-caliber scorer to me here.
-Uvis Balinskis came in as one of Latvia's few players with NHL pedigree, but he looked really good as the team's #1. Only Seider and Heiskanen logged more minutes in the prelims than Balinskis, yet he held his own, holding firm at a -1 for a team that had a -5 goal differential as a team.
STATS COURTESY OF HOCKEYSTATS.COM AND DIMITRI FILIPOVIC
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