NHL Mock Draft 2.0

 

Keaton Verhoeff (Dan Hickling)

    Since my first mock draft of the NHL season, the prospect landscape has dramatically changed. Gavin McKenna has gone from challenged to the challenger, while the World Junior Championship altered the stock of a number of potential first-round talents.

    Given the degree of change in the world of junior hockey, I figured it was an ideal time to revisit and update my stance on the lottery picks. It also happens to be -25 degrees in Montreal, so I have very little inclination to venture outside out of fear of picking up frostbite. I decided to avoid the classic weekend pastime of skating in circles around the Quartier des Spectacles rink while simultaneously judging the array of skate attendants for being negligent, so I could turn my focus to other ice surfaces. 

    As always, take all my words with a grain of salt. I'm far too unqualified to treat my assessment of these players as meaningful, especially on the occasions that I disagree with the consensus of the scouting community. Regardless, I would like to think I know the difference between a good player and a bad player, given my proximity to the game throughout my life. 

    The draft order is a somewhat informed prediction of my expectations for the final standings, based on the current placements, on-ice metrics, and remaining strength of schedule. So, while I may be higher on some teams for the remaining 30 games or so, I didn't boost them too far up the hypothetical standings, even though the league is incredibly congested. 

    With a bit more tape and information on these players, I feel that I have a better understanding of their skillsets now. However, if you want to compare my opinion on these players to how I felt about them in early November, feel free to contrast this article with my mock draft 1.0. 

1. Vancouver Canucks

Ivar Stenberg 
LW, Frölunda (SHL)
HT 5’11 WT 183 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #2

    If Vancouver is opting for the biggest talent on the board and isn't vastly overestimating Tynan Lawrence's positional value, it seems that Stenberg would be the pick, as of today. He looked like the most pro-ready prospect at the World Juniors, as he simultaneously drove play in transition and worked plays down low on the cycle. The Swedish connection in Vancouver will be meaningful to GM Patrik Allvin as well. While I don't think Stenberg's ceiling measures up too well to recent first-overall picks, he's a good bet to be a top line, point-per-game player in the NHL for a Canucks team that desperately needs skill up front. A strong forechecker with Stenberg's smarts and 90-point potential would drastically change the trajectory of the flailing Canucks.

2. Calgary Flames

Gavin McKenna
LW, Penn State (NCAA)
HT 5’11 WT 170 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #1

    Personally, I'd have McKenna as the first player off the board if I was the GM of an NHL team, but it does feel like his stock has dropped significantly, even after a fairly impressive World Juniors showing. At this rate, Stenberg feels like a favourite for the first pick, which leaves Calgary in a fantastic position at #2. The Flames desperately need a high-end talent, as Jonathan Huberdeau continues to regress, while the likes of Matthew Coronato and Connor Zary have stagnated. McKenna has the highest ceiling of any player in this draft with his deceptive stick handling and otherworldly passing ability that can break open a defensive structure in one fell swoop. Calgary's rebuild will be a lengthy process, but adding a Patrick Kane-esque offensive weapon in the early stages would be transformative for GM Craig Conroy's team.

3. St. Louis Blues

Keaton Verhoeff
RD, North Dakota (NCAA)
HT 6’4 WT 208 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #3

    The Blues' season has been an absolute nightmare up to this point after a resurgence under Jim Montgomery last season. Although goaltending remains possibly the biggest concern in the organization, St Louis' defensive depth chart shouldn't inspire much confidence either. Beyond Philip Broberg and Colton Parayko, the franchise's blueliners hardly indicate that this team ought to be a perennial playoff contender, especially if they decide to deal Justin Faulk at the trade deadline. Verhoeff is a raw product, but he possess the full package of skills to become one of the league's premier defensemen at his peak. With the massive frame and the booming shot, comparisons to Victor Hedman seem apt, but Verhoeff needs to develop a cleaner retrieval game and fix out some skating quirks before he certifies himself as a true can't-miss prospect.

4. New York Rangers

Tynan Lawrence
C, Boston University (NCAA)
HT 6’0 WT 185 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #4

    The Rangers are entering a pivotal period as a club. With morale at an all-time low, the Rangers need to start stockpiling genuine talent for the post-Panarin generation. Over the past two seasons, New York's' team speed has been absolutely inexcusable. An emphasis on gritty and physical players has left the Blueshirts with one of the most toothless transition offenses in the league. Tynan Lawrence would be a perfect salve to this sore spot. Although I wouldn't consider him to be an elite skater, which has constrained his game at the college level in a brief sample size, Lawrence plays his game at a breakneck pace, with and without the puck on his stick. His aggressive, attack-first mentality is missing in all of New York's centers not named Noah Laba. He could be a high-caliber, two-way 2C in the NHL fairly soon. 

5. Chicago Blackhawks

Caleb Malhotra
C, Brantford (OHL)
HT 6’2 WT 183 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #13

    While I thought I was initially fairly high on Caleb Malhotra relative to consensus, he has continued to go from strength to strength on one of the OHL's best teams and shattered my prior expectations. Malhotra has played a crucial role on a squad filled with NHL draft picks, excelling at making the underrated connective plays that help centers stick at the NHL level. His details on the rush are excellent and he should scale up well to playing with other talented players, due to his facilitation abilities. Picking a center here might be surprising, considering Chicago's organizational depth at the position, but Malhotra is significantly better defensively than players like Frank Nazar and Anton Frondell, who could be pushed to the wing one day. Malhotra can be a real pickpocket with his strong stick in the corners.

6. Nashville Predators

Chase Reid
RD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
HT 6’2 WT 188 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #6

    Reid getting drafted to the Predators would be a perfect marriage of team fit, player skillset, and organizational needs. The Preds don't have a clear top-4 right-shot rearguard in the entire organization. Reid brings a unique transition attack element to his game, which will be highly valued when Roman Josi eventually calls it quits. Despite their reputation as a defensive factory, the Predators haven't produced a great defensemen in many years. Reid can be a bit sketchy in his own zone, but he has the ability to be the most dynamic D-man in this year's class down the line. Even in an exciting draft class for defensemen, Reid stands out for his PP1 upside and ability to elevate his teammates.

7. Columbus Blue Jackets

Ethan Belchetz
LW, Windsor (OHL)
HT 6’5 WT 228 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #8

    The Blue Jackets are entering a pivotal crossroads moment as an organization in which every decision will be scrutinized to an extensive degree. Although Columbus is loaded with young skill, they recently fired coach Dean Evason and are lingering at the bottom of the East. This situation is coming to a head just months before their litany of gifted U23 players becomes extension-eligible. In the disaster scenario that the eternally underrated Kirill Marchenko decides to explore the free agency market, Belchetz fits a similar void as a huge scoring threat with juice off the rush. Even if Marchenko stays, Belchetz profiles as a strong middle-six option, especially for a team with thin organizational LW depth. He hasn't lit the OHL alight, which is somewhat disappointing, but a 6'5 forward with genuine skill has more leeway than most profiles.

8. Winnipeg Jets

Alberts Šmits
LD, Jukurit (Liiga)
HT 6’3 WT 205 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #11

    I'm less worried about the Jets than their fans seem to be. Personally, I believe they took a miscalculated risk to prioritize grit over team speed, but should learn their lesson going into next season. They still have dynamic top-end players, but need to get significantly faster heading into a pivotal retool offseason. With most of the top forwards off the board, I could see Winnipeg taking the high-upside swing on Latvian Alberts Šmits to freshen up their declining prospect cupboard. Šmits has the skating and shot to challenge for a top-3 spot, but I've been rather unimpressed with his in-zone defense. For a player with his length and range, he doesn't block off lanes or engage physically well enough. Nevertheless, with proper development, he could become a bona fide #2 D-man.

9. Seattle Kraken

Carson Carels
LD, Prince George (WHL)
HT 6’1 WT 202 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #5

    Seattle is treading water as an organization: not good enough to challenge for a deep playoff run, not bad enough to fall to the cellar and draft a franchise-changing talent. Nevertheless, they've drafted a fairly intriguing collection of forwards in recent drafts, highlighted by Berkly Catton and Jake O'Brien. It's time to address the defensive corps. Personally, I like Carels more than most defensemen in this class, but it's conceivable that he slips behind some of the others, because he doesn't possess one distinct separating skill. Rather, Carels is just great in every area, ticking most of the boxes that an organization should seek in a rearguard. While he didn't set the world alight at the WJC, I'm still quite bullish on his ability to be a good top-4 option with strong on-ice impacts offensively and defensively. In my opinion, once he fills out his frame, he'll be an absolutely dominant battle-winner in the neutral zone and in the corners.

10. Ottawa Senators

FORFEITED

11. Los Angeles Kings

Adam Novotný
LW, Peterborough (OHL)
HT 6’1 WT 204 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #9

    With Anze Kopitar retiring and Quinton Byfield's development stagnating, the Kings are crying out for reinforcements down the middle. Unfortunately, without a little lottery luck or a slide from Lawrence/Malhotra, it seems unlikely they'll be able to take a needle-moving center this year. Rather than reaching on Oliver Suvanto or Ilia Morozov, both of whom I'd deem to be future 3Cs, they should stick here and take the best player available. In my opinion, that would be Petes' winger Adam Novotný, who plays an incredibly mature and physical game. Novotný is an excellent threat off the cycle and is a very responsible defensive player considering his position. He isn't an elite finisher, but he projects to score goals at the NHL level because he is so adept at getting into dangerous spots of ice. After seemingly finding a steal in Vojtech Cihar last year, I could see the Kings taking his Czech WJC teammate.

12. Washington Capitals

Daxon Rudolph
RD, Prince Albert (WHL)
HT 6’2 WT 206 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #12

    Despite strong analytics, the Capitals' inability to hold a lead has them on the outside of the playoff race. With one of the best scouting teams in hockey, this could potentially be a blessing in disguise. The Caps have concentrated on revitalizing their forward depth with their first-rounders in recent years, so I could see them turn to the blueline, especially considering John Carlson isn't getting any younger. Rudolph is the exact type of defensemen that GMs adore: smooth, fast, tall, right-handed. His motor is slightly questionable, but the tools are there for Rudolph to be a good middle-pair option. He is very efficient and calm in his actions, while he skates incredibly well. He uses his stick to break up plays against the oncoming rush. The 10-15 range seems like a fair place to pick Rudolph at this rate.  

13. Philadelphia Flyers

Oscar Hemming
LW, Boston College (NCAA)
HT 6’3 WT 193 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #26

    Don't take my personal ranking for Hemming as gospel. When I released my first prospect ranking update, he hadn't played a game all season because of a legal dispute with his domestic Finnish club. However, he is now playing full-time as the youngest player in college hockey and looking quite good doing so. Hemming competes very well, utilizing his 6'4 frame to access the middle lanes and wreak havoc on the forecheck. He skates pretty well for his size, too. While his brother Emil is the sniper of the family, Oscar has a fairly deceptive release that he employs often. The Flyers need high-end talent more than they need to fill any specific positional need; Hemming has as good a chance as anybody in the late lottery range to become an NHL star.

14. New Jersey Devils

Viggo Björck
C, Djurgårdens IF (SHL)
HT 5’9 WT 177 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #19

Björck was the biggest beneficiary from the World Juniors, a tournament which he took by storm by showcasing a mature, two-way game, regardless of his diminutive frame. Scouts are more willing to overlook height in a player during the modern era, but I still struggle to see a 5'9 forward without dynamic foot speed being taken in the top 10, so his fall becomes New Jersey's gain. The Devils' management has been horrible at surrounding Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier, and Jesper Bratt with secondary scoring. Björck is defensively responsible, but he also has the offensive ability to create chances and elevate his linemates. This would be a godsend for a Devils team that is crying out for some play-driving in the forward group.

15. Boston Bruins (via Toronto Maple Leafs)

Malte Gustafsson
LD, HV71 (U20 Nationell)
HT 6’4 WT 200 Shoots L

Sincere Sports Ranking: #15

    The Bruins have done a great job of adding talent down the middle with their recent selections of Dean Letourneau and James Hagens in the first round. Now, they need to desperately address a blueline that could use some fresh legs. They've struggled to produce puck-moving defensemen that aren't a complete liability in their own end (sorry, Mason Lohrei), but Gustafsson shows plenty of promise in that area. For a 6'4 player that isn't afraid to leverage his physicality in tight areas, he is an incredible skater. My biggest concern with Gustafsson is that he tends to be quite loose with his puck touches, which often leads to ugly DZ giveaways. Still, he's very young for this class and has looked increasingly at ease in the SHL with more reps. If you want a bold prediction out of this article, I'd say Gustafsson could be a top-10 pick at the draft in June.

16. Chicago Blackhawks (via Florida Panthers)

Ryan Lin
RD, Vancouver (WHL)
HT 5’11 WT 176 Shoots R

Sincere Sports Ranking: #10

    The Blackhawks should be in best player available mode with their picks from now on until they can assemble a competent hockey team around Connor Bedard. Although Lin has been earmarked as a likely candidate to fall, I'd be fairly surprised if he went much later than 16th. The Hawks have assembled one of the beefiest contingents of defensemen in hockey with Artyom Levshunov, Alex Vlasic, and Ethan Del Mastro among others. Sam Rinzel and Kevin Korchinski are no slouches in the physicality department either. Thus, Chicago is uniquely positioned to take the 5'11 Lin, a player with high-end puck-moving juice and an underappreciated off-puck game. With his smarts and good defensive stick, he clogs lanes off the rush extremely well. While I don't think he projects as a dynamic point producer, he ranks second among draft-eligible D-men in the WHL for points per game, behind only overager Jonas Woo, for a reason.

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