Connor Bedard (Tom Pennington, Getty Images)
Mock draft season is upon us, which is wonderful news for prospect aficionados such as myself. 2023 has long been mentioned as an absolute diamond, ripe with superstar quality in a way, unlike any class since 2015. Highlighted by phenom Connor Bedard, university stud Adam Fantilli and lethal sniper Matvei Michkov, a few presumptive world-class talents are waiting to be unearthed at this year's draft.
It is necessary to note that we are in the early stages of this process (the draft lottery only took place a little over a week ago). Though I am hardly on the phone with scouts around the league, I have certain access to information through news sources and the like that typically provides a crucial audit for my mock drafts. In this case, I am simply using my own brain and eyes to determine the top draft-eligible players and their respective fits for all 16 lottery picks. The entire first-round mock will come later on, as we approach the pivotal date.
LEGEND:
HT-height
WT-weight
Shoots-preferred shooting hand
CS Rank-ranking according to Central Scouting
BCS-best case scenario comparison
1. Chicago Blackhawks
Connor Bedard, C, Regina (WHL)
HT 5'10 WT 185 Shoots R
CS Rank: 1 (North America)
BCS: David Pastrnak
Nobody needs to be sold on the bona fide superstar talent of Connor Bedard. Having ripped junior hockey to shreds, both as a member of the Regina Pats and while representing his country at the World Junior Championships, Bedard has already reached prospect pinnacle. He is the most hyped prospect to emerge since Connor McDavid. Armed with a laser beam of a shot, the Blackhawks may have found their natural heir to Patrick Kane much sooner than expected. Bedard should become a top-10 player in the NHL one day, but even if the projections are too gaudy, he will likely nevertheless be an 80-point per-season player at the absolute minimum. Being drafted into the Chicago organization likely also means that Bedard sticks at center, meaning that hockey fans should anticipate GM Kyle Davidson to surround his new star with some strong winger talent this offseason.
2. Anaheim Ducks
Adam Fantilli, C, Michigan (BIG10)
HT 6'2 WT 195 Shoots L
CS Rank: 2 (NA)
BCS: Jonathan Toews
Though the Ducks will undoubtedly be frustrated with the results of the draft lottery, selecting Adam Fantilli is a wonderful consolation prize. Though the elite talent at the forefront of this draft ensures that Fantilli to California is hardly a foregone conclusion, it seems highly likely that the two Canadian centers will eventually occupy the top two draft slots in June. The one quality that Fantilli holds over his compatriot is center compatibility. While Bedard is more likely to eventually translate to the wing or to struggle with his defensive duties, Fantilli has a strong frame and a rapid acceleration. He'll be far more comfortable in his own zone from a young age, in contrast to Bedard. Though Trevor Zegras is seen as the crown jewel of the Ducks' center pipeline, his skill with the puck is far better suited to the wing. Selecting a competitive, fiery center with Fantilli's offensive instincts is the biggest need for Anaheim in the present and the future.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets
Will Smith, C, USA U-18 (NTDP)
HT 5'11 WT 181 Shoots R
CS Rank: 3 (NA)
BCS: Evgeny Kuzenetsov
The 3 slot is undoubtedly where the draft will deviate from the basic consensus. Though history and the scouting reports tip to Swedish superstar Leo Carlsson being the likely pick in this position, American youngster Will Smith has been recently emerging in the rankings and sealing his spot near the top of the big boards. Known for his playmaking abilities on the first line of the USNTDP team this season, it would be wise to pair somebody of Smith's skillset with Columbus' unmatched winger depth. In Patrik Laine, Jonny Gaudreau, Kirill Marchenko, and Kent Johnson, the Jackets have several players that would hugely benefit from a skilled gamebreaker of Will Smith's mould. Though Carlsson's size and finesse make him a safer pick in the top three than the American, GM Jarmo Kekalainen has shown a distinct interest in following his own scouting reports and selecting for upside. At this point, I'd be more confident in believing that Smith can emerge into an All-Star talent than Carlsson, as much as I believe in Carlsson's fit as a top-6 talent on the majority of teams.
4. San Jose Sharks
Leo Carlsson, C, Orebro
HT 6'3 WT 198 Shoots L
CS Rank: 1 (International)
BCS: Mikko Rantanen
If Russian superstar Matvei Michkov has genuinely garnered his fair share of skeptics, as reports have unveiled, I find it hard to believe that a team with a top 5 selection in one of the most loaded drafts in years would use it on a major question mark. The Sharks' pipeline is loaded to the brim with diminutive, skilled wingers. Though Michkov would be the best of the lot, drafting a powerhouse like Carlsson to play down the middle of the ice is the wise decision from a concept-to-execution perspective. Carlsson's speed is his sole weakness, as he lacks the elite foot speed of the great defensive forwards in the NHL. Luckily, he makes up for that with outstanding positional sense, world-class skill, and a pro-ready release. He'll be forced to learn the proper defensive habits of North American hockey, but his leadership style and exposure to older players in the SHL should serve him well in a Sharks system that demands dominance on the flanks and in the cycle.
5. Montreal Canadiens
David Reinbacher, D, Kloten (SWISS)
HT 6'2 WT 185 Shoots R
CS Rank: 5 (Int.)
BCS: Brett Pesce
Though Matvei Michkov is undoubtedly a phenomenal player, the Canadiens have constructed a strong prospect pipeline within the last several drafts, as their farm system has been newly reinvented by the appointment of GM Kent Hughes. Of all the needs that the Canadiens should be set to fulfill with the number 5 selection, a scoring winger is quite low on the checklist. Luckily for Habs management, a strong right-shot defenseman has been discussed in the top-5 conversation. David Reinbacher is the next in line of the Austrian golden generation and he could be projectable enough to test Montreal's impetus regarding Michkov. The model of any successful blueline prospect is a heavy, mobile RHD. Reinbacher fits that model to a tee and he has been honing his mistakes on international ice. The Austrian titan stands out among players of his own age group and though his gap play may completely evaporate under the pressure of NHL forechecking, his puck-moving and hockey sense should make him a useful player regardless of his defensive dominance continuing into his 20s.
6. Arizona Coyotes
Matvei Michkov, RW, SKA St. Petersburg (RUSSIA)
HT 5'10 WT 172 Shoots L
CS Rank: 2 (Int.)
BCS: Nikita Kucherov
In years gone by, there has been a major discussion about the potential rivalry between blue-chip prospects Matvei Michkov and Connor Bedard. Though a multitude of factors, some out of Michkov's control, have prevented that reality, he is still the player with the second-highest ceiling of any player in this class. Blessed with unreal hockey sense and puck skills, Michkov is a true 100-point talent, heir apparent to Alex Ovechkin and Nikita Kucherov. However, hesitation surrounding Russian hockey players is at an all-time high right now, due to the war in Ukraine and the unstable political structure of the KHL. It seems like Michkov will remain in St. Petersburg until his contract with the KHL club expires, which is in three years. Thus, Michkov, a raw project player, won't be exposed to North American ice and proper deployment for several years. Nevertheless, Arizona after receiving news about their failed Tempe arena bid may be prepared to usher in a new era with a superstar talent. Perhaps by the time the organization successfully relocates, Michkov will be ready to join the big leagues. When he eventually does, he'll be an offensive dynamo with questionable defensive habits.
7. Philadelphia Flyers
Ryan Leonard, RW, USA U-18 (NTDP)
HT 5'11 WT 192 Shoots R
CS Rank: 5 (NA)
BCS: Artturi Lehkonen
Another team aiming to quickly spurn a total rebuild, the Flyers will be a major player on draft day. Under new GM Daniel Briere, there isn't much history to reference in speculating Philadelphia's ultimate direction with the 7th pick. While I don't doubt that Philadelphia will swoop in for Michkov if he falls into their lap, this situation would require serious thought. Replenished with scoring talent, it is possible that a playmaker or a safer choice, in the form of a middle-six center, makes the most sense here. Regardless, I think that another shooter in Ryan Leonard would intrigue Philadelphia's front office. Like his linemate Will Smith, Leonard has been receiving more and more plaudits as we approach the draft. Though he fills a similar vein that has already been filled by recent picks, like Tyson Foerster and Cutter Gauthier, Leonard is far more versatile than those two, fueled by his directness and soft hands in tight areas. Though he projects as a middle-six scoring winger, I believe that his game is far more multidimensional than the surface-level scouting reports that I have read insinuate.
8. Washington Capitals
Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK (SWEDEN-2)
HT 6'1 WT 201 Shoots L
CS Rank: 3 (Int.)
BCS: William Karlsson
Unlike most of the other teams picking in this part of the draft, the Capitals are desperate for any blue-chip talent to add to their pool. Having relied on the mid-20s picks for the last decade, Washington is starving for a reinvigorated next generation. With no particular positional need on the scope, I wouldn't be stunned to see the Caps take a safe route and select the highly projectable Dalibor Dvorsky. Tall and muscular, Dvorsky's skating is still a work in progress, but the Slovak possesses multiple tools that general managers love in young forwards. He's a playoff player, known for being strong down low and exposing seams in opposing defensive systems with his underrated stickhandling. Scouts have praised his work ethic, which may bode well for a potential improvement in his skating ability. Either way, though I'm more skeptical than some regarding his future at the highest level, Dvorsky has his supporters in NHL front offices and I'd be stunned to see him slip much further.
9. Detroit Red Wings
Zach Benson, LW, Winnipeg (WHL)
HT 5'9 WT 163 Shoots L
CS Rank: 6 (NA)
BCS: Jonathan Marchessault
The Wings should go with whomever they believe is the best player available in this slot. As an amateur scout, I am in no position to debate Steve Yzerman and his staff regarding who that may be. Nevertheless, I would lean toward Zach Benson, a highly skilled winger that projects to be a legitimate asset on NHL power plays. A feisty, albeit diminutive, winger with phenomenal puck skills and vision, Benson has been a top player on one of the WHL's premier clubs. Players of his stature tend to slip on draft day, though an evolution in modern thinking has stemmed from minds like Yzerman. Skating and skill are valued highly in today's NHL, two tools that Benson possesses in spades. Though Detroit may eventually opt for the security of a center in this slot, the Winnipeg Ice star fits the prototypical player that some late lottery teams may take a swing on.
10. St. Louis Blues
Oliver Moore, C, USA U-18 (NTDP)
HT 5'11 WT 188 Shoots L
CS Rank: 8 (NA)
BCS: Jean Gabriel-Pageau
The Blues are arming themselves for the next generation of hockey by stockpiling speed. In Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou, they have two of the most dynamic and rapid forwards in the game. Adding Oliver Moore, widely considered as the best skater of this class, to the mix would be a nuclear decision that could yield major rewards a few years down the line. Wherever St. Louis eventually falls with this pick, I'm quite sure that it will be a center or a defenseman, two major voids in the Blues' system. Moore makes a lot of sense from a franchise perspective for his on-ice traits and for his commitment to the University of Minnesota, where he may team up with fellow American Jimmy Snuggerud, one of the Blues' most highly touted youngsters. Though hardly a ceiling raiser, Moore will be a solid middle-six center that can play in all situations and contribute to a winning culture. I'm eager to see how his controlled zone entry tendencies trend as he begins to play against professionals.
11. Vancouver Canucks
Tom Willander, D, Rogle Jr. (SWEDEN-Jr.)
HT 6'1 WT 180 Shoots R
CS Rank: 12 (Int.)
BCS: Mike Matheson
The Canucks appear to be eager to add on the back end with their 11th overall pick. With David Reinbacher off the table, the debate seemingly comes down to two Swedish defensemen, Tom Willander, and Axel Sandin-Pellikka. Though Sandin-Pellikka is the flashier, more dynamic puck mover, Willander is a much better fit for what Vancouver appears to be targeting. Willander is the more projectable long-term blueliner. Bigger than his countryman and a more powerful skater, the Rogle Jr. prospect still needs to contribute more physicality in games, but with a strong frame and a smooth stride, he will be a plus defender regardless. His offensive touch is lacking in comparison to that of Sandin-Pellikka, but if the Canucks can keep Quinn Hughes for the future, a more responsible two-way defender is far more useful anyways. I expect Willander to become a highly effective second-pairing defenseman for whichever team selects him.
12. Arizona Coyotes (via Ottawa Senators)
Axel Sandin-Pellikka, D, Skelleftea Jr. (SWEDEN-Jr.)
HT 5'11 WT 176 Shoots R
CS Rank: 7 (Int.)
BCS: Torey Krug
We tend to see trends emerge during the NHL draft. With Willander off the board, it wouldn't be uncommon to see a wave of defensemen follow in the order. This cascade may begin with Swedish star Axel Sandin-Pellikka. After taking Logan Cooley, Connor Geekie, and Matvei Michkov with their last three lottery picks, drafting a blueliner makes a lot of sense for the Coyotes, particularly after dealing Jakob Chychrun to the Senators in the trade that netted Arizona this puck. Somewhat undersized and offensive-oriented, Sandin-Pellikka is hardly a perfect fit, but the Yotes are yearning for a puck-mover of Sandin-Pellikka's quality. He's highly intelligent and is full of poise, particularly in the offensive zone. He competes hard and has an above-average shot that could serve him well on the man advantage in the Show. Sandin-Pellikka reminds me a lot of young Flyers D-man Cam York, who had a strong season as a young defenseman in the NHL. If Arizona can get a York-type player with this pick, I presume they'll be quite happy.
13. Buffalo Sabres
Matthew Wood, RW, UConn (H-EAST)
HT 6'3 WT 193 Shoots R
CS Rank: 4 (NA)
BCS: Drake Batherson
The Sabres have shown to be quite proficient in terms of transforming former UConn wingers into elite, first-line talent (Tage Thompson). Why not take another swing at one of the most effective power-forward archetypes of this class? Buffalo's center pipeline is newly replenished after Kevyn Adams' performance at the 2022 draft and the Sabres are blessed with a set of cost-controlled, youthful defensemen. Thus, I expect a shot-first winger going in this slot no matter what. He's not the best skater, but he operates very efficiently in the OZ, not unlike Michkov. He has a strong hockey sense, great puck skills to escape the corners, and a sneaky release that he likes to unleash from the tips of the trapezoid. Not only that, but he has the sort of frame and stickhandling ability that all scorers must possess in the modern NHL. He strikes me as a gritty second-line RW with 35-goal potential at the highest level.
14. Pittsburgh Penguins
Nate Danielson, C, Brandon (WHL)
HT 6'1 WT 185 Shoots R
CS Rank: 7 (NA)
BCS: Elias Lindholm
I genuinely think this could be the steal of the draft if June 28 plays out this way. Danielson is an NHL-ready center with the potential to grow. Like the Washington Capitals, their divisional rivals, the Penguins should care less about organizational fit than most teams, as any blue-chip talent would be welcome to freshen their prospect cupboard. To me, Danielson is the best player still available, and he also could be a potential heir to Evgeni Malkin as the Pens' second-line center. With a pro-ready frame and a strong compete level, Danielson is a highly effective defensive player. He's also a rare breed offensively, as a player without standout speed that still always gets past his man. Danielson is very clever with his stick usage in all three zones, and he could potentially make the shift to the wing to accommodate any other players in Pittsburgh's system. He reminds me a lot of a younger JT Miller, which would be an absolute robbery at pick 14.
15. Nashville Predators
Gabriel Perreault, RW, USA U-18 (NTDP)
HT 5'11 WT 165 Shoots L
CS Rank: 10 (NA)
BCS: Sam Gagner
I have yet to fully diagnose Gabe Perreault's ideal spot in the draft order. Of any player that I have mentioned thus far, I believe he has the widest possible variance between his highest and lowest draft slots. I genuinely think that Philadelphia will consider Perreault with pick 7, meaning this could be a major fall for the USNTDP star. A pass-first winger, he can play on both sides of the ice, a versatile quality that GMs love to collect. He is eager to delve into perimeter areas and utilize his high skill level to force mismatches and defensive zone breakdowns. His skill set is tailor-made for an NHL power play; a duo of Perreault and Filip Forsberg is mouth-watering. I think Nashville will target a defenseman with this pick, as they need a new pet project to nurture on the blueline in their defenseman factory. However, with Joakim Kemell and Gabe Perreault as potential picks in back-to-back years, GM Barry Trotz could inject some much-needed skill into the Preds' future outlook.
16. Calgary Flames
Colby Barlow, LW, Owen Sound (OHL)
HT 6'0 WT 190 Shoots L
CS Rank: 12 (NA)
BCS: Jason Zucker
Another team that could go for a defender with their pick, I think Barlow is the ideal Flames player. It would be a value pick, as he has been lauded recently by many scouts. Though the Flames' forward pipeline is underrated, strong wingers with a good shot are important to stockpile. Barlow, quick in transition and effective in the OZ by unleashing pucks with his release, is a weapon offensively. Quite physically advanced for a young man, he will get reps on the PK at the NHL level. His vision and playmaking are strong enough that he should be a power-play weapon as well. Barlow is highly comparable to a recent Calgary selection, Matthew Coronato, but each could add their respective elements of dynamism to the Flames' new offensive scheme, as players that are simultaneously comfortable on the rush and in prolonged OZ spurts.
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