Connor McDavid is headed to the playoffs with legitimate Cup aspirations (Christian Petersen, Getty Images)
Following the culmination of yet another fascinating regular season of the National Hockey League, the clock has started to tick. As fans of the sport, we are no longer hockey watchers, but observers of mass bloodbaths and a grueling two-month stretch of sweat and tears. For whatever reason, postseason hockey has always held the secret formula to entertainment and storylines, combined into one heart-pumping drama, akin to the great tales of William Shakespeare. There is no script now (take that, conspiracy theorists!) or constants (except for the Leafs choking) that can be taken for granted.
As a man with far too much time on his hands and an unceasing obsession with putting my neck on the line with unsightly predictions regarding athletics, breaking down each first-round series is a match made in heaven with the type of content that Sincere Sports aims to produce.
Many people may simply be prepared for playoff fever, and it is my responsibility to catch everybody up, with detailed analysis and a complete write-up on endlessly enjoyable NHL action.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston Bruins (A1) vs Florida Panthers (WC2)
Marc Staal checks David Pastrnak (Jason Mowry, USA Today)
Words are not adequate to summarize the Boston Bruins' 2022-23 season. Though it is evidently difficult to compare teams and their records throughout the decades, the cold hard facts are that, under new management in coach Jim Montgomery, the Bruins shattered the previously held record for wins and points in a season. They are a special team, in many facets: utterly complete with two starter-caliber goaltenders, arguably seven above-average NHL defensemen, and four highly competent forward lines. However, there are several stories of caution that the Atlantic champions' opponents may take solace from, notably including another 60+ win season from the last decade: the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, who were swept by a vastly inferior Columbus Blue Jackets squad.
The Bruins have always been a well-oiled machine, but their evolution under Montgomery has been particularly stunning. Far more expressive in the offensive end, the Bs have found so much success with a new, offense-friendly approach. To a strange degree, I have identified several similarities between this year's Bruins and last year's Florida Panthers. Both teams relied on their balance and elite passing ability to force a lot of chance creation on the rush, evidenced by the fact that the Bruins' shot generation is geared to transition chances. One could nitpick Boston's offensive scheme and point out that they spend less time in their O-zone than most elite teams throughout history, but armed with many experienced scorers, their shooting percentage is among the top marks in the league. Some people may call it luck; I call it intelligent and sustainable methods of generating open shots.
The plan for Montgomery will be to continue to seize control of the neutral zone. Boston is the best NZ team I've ever witnessed and they are at their most potent when playing with a medium pace and controlling possession. Intricate, control-based offenses mirroring the Bruins' high 2-3 offense press are ideal for regular season dominance, but they have also been employed by teams like the 18-19 Lightning and other clubs that have been shocked in the playoffs. This is because these teams are so used to playing with a lead that they struggle to manage "chucker" teams like Florida, a term used to describe any roster that can translate through the phases of play (defensive zone through the neutral zone to offensive zone) with rapidity and efficiency. If the Panthers can take Game 1, this series, universally considered to be a comfortable victory for the historically great Bs, will become much different.
From a mental perspective, it will be hard for the Panthers to have an attack mentality, especially with a compromised D-corps, following the loss of Mackenzie Weegar last off-season. But, I truly believe that the best way for Paul Maurice's team to pull off the upset would be to go into TD Garden and scare Boston out of their rhythm. Florida is one of the most effective forechecking teams in the NHL; their entire forward corps is quick to grab loose pucks and in Ryan Lomberg, the Panthers have a player that utterly thrives in the dangerous areas of play that postseason hockey tends to offer. A possible injury to Sam Bennett would hurt Florida's OZ FC, but it's all about how Maurice sets up his men from a strategic perspective.
That statement isn't meant to insinuate that the Bruins can't go blow-for-blow with the Cats, as they have a strong attack, headlined by the most recent member of the 60-goal club, David Pastrnak. "Pasta" is arguably the greatest even-strength scorer in the entire NHL and Florida's weak defensive structure will let the Czech sniper have his way in the offensive zone. Pastrnak's fellow superstars, Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, are no slouches themselves, neither offensively nor defensively. Other key faces on Boston's forward corps include LTIR-returnee Taylor Hall and Pavel Zacha, one of the biggest success stories for Don Sweeney's management team.
If Florida has something going for them, it's their offense, in all fairness. Led by Hart candidate Matthew Tkachuk, a world-class play driver and target #1 for Boston's systemic defensive play, the entire group is highly threatening. Aleksander Barkov is a well-rounded phenomenon akin to Bergeron, Carter Verhaeghe is a Brad Marchand-lite and Anthony Duclair is a clutch scorer with decent playmaking instincts. Freshly returned from injury, Duclair may be a massive X-factor in this series. At his best, he was a top-tier finisher, but his shooting percentage has fallen off a cliff after dealing with health problems.
Defense is where Boston holds all the cards. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm will garner Norris Trophy consideration for their proficiencies in all situations and as the season winds down, expect McAvoy and Lindholm to munch even more minutes than beforehand. The depth of the favourites' blue line is the most significant reason for their supreme confidence. I'd feel comfortable saying that Boston's third duo of Dmitry Orlov and Connor Clifton may be better than Florida's best defense pairing (in Aaron Ekblad and Gustav Forsling).
Brandon Montour is positive offensively, but the pairing with Marc Staal is hardly a shutdown group. In Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura, the Panthers actually have a pretty underrated, low-event third pair, but they won't be relied upon in the latter stages of the set, if the series eventually gets tight.
In net, Linus Ullmark has a puncher's chance to win a shock Vezina Trophy, whereas Paul Maurice still must decide which goalie he wants to start in his respective crease. Veteran Alex Lyon has been a revelation, posting a .943 SV% since the end of March. However, Lyon was only asked to play after Sergei Bobrovsky, one of the league's most expensive netminders was hurt. Now, Bobrovsky is back, but his numbers pale in comparison to the red-hot Lyon. While Montgomery has two excellent goalies in his locker (Jeremy Swayman is a great backup), Maurice still needs to figure out if he even has one. In the playoffs, goalies can be the great equalizer, but the Cats do not have any bona fide superstars to guard the goal.
All in all, I'm clearly not bold enough to pick the world-class Bruins to trip up in the first round, but the Panthers are tactically a poor matchup for the President's Trophy holders. The formula for success for Boston is to get lots of power play opportunities and expose cracks in Florida's flawed penalty kill, while also maintaining a more free-flowing approach to keep Boston in games in which they concede first. As previously mentioned, Florida needs to understand their strengths and weakness to charge at Boston's defense and force uncomfortable plays out of their enemies. A Boston series loss would demolish the fabric of the Stanley Cup playoffs, but unfortunately, especially without Bennett, the Panthers can't rely on what they do well to combat such a strong team.
Prediction: Boston wins in 6 games
Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)
William Nylander escapes Victor Hedman (Mike Carlson, Getty Images)
The matchup that we have all been awaiting and have all been expecting since November. Yet again, the eternally cursed Toronto Maple Leafs host the league's most consistent franchise of the late 2010s in a playoff series that will inevitably knock out a perennial Stanley Cup contender in the first round. The last time we witnessed this matchup over a 7-game sample, it was a series that will be mentioned in the annals of history: two absolute heavyweights exchanging thunderous blows in a manner that we may see from a Stanley Cup Final. This year, though in a certain sense, everything has changed, nothing has truly deviated from what we saw last year.
The Toronto Maple Leafs would be the kings of the league if hockey was played on paper. Their recent playoff series against Columbus, Montreal, and even Tampa Bay last season, have been marked by a minor sense of optimism, reflected in the odds and in the hearts of Leafs Nation. Yet, as soon as the postseason starts, Toronto's demons prop up and deny every single advantage that had ever existed. Tampa Bay, by contrast, haven't been able to package together a flawless regular season for a couple of years now, but they reach another gear when the going gets tough. Thus, it's highly difficult to ever break down a series involving these two teams using logic and reason.
Since Tampa Bay's 62-win season in 2018-19, Jon Cooper has forced a total evolution of the club's system. Once a highly transition-based offense, geared for high scoring in the regular seasons, the Bolts are now a more ground-and-pound team in the OZ. Tampa Bay has become well-known for their signature trade deadline acquisition of a heavy, physical forward and that move is entirely intentional by GM Julien Brisebois. This year, Tampa gave up a boatload for young Tanner Jeannot, and though he has failed to create any chemistry with those around him, Jeannot is a perfect fit for Tampa Bay's 2-3 offense. The Lightning are one of the few teams that utilize two forwards at the net for screens and second-chance opportunities off of rebounds. This will be crucial to watch, as the Leafs have constantly been accused of acting too soft around their own crease. It was clear from Toronto's trade deadline that they are aiming to rectify that issue, particularly with their D-men acquisitions, Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn. So much of Tampa Bay's offense stems from tip-ins and net-front chaos that if McCabe and Schenn can be adequate body movers, the Leafs will simply overpower the Lightning.
The Leafs are morphing into an elite OZ team, typically controlling the vast majority of ice time in their opponent's end. Their motion offense requires a defense with a lot of speed and positioning savvy. Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, their biggest drop-off in overall team quality between 2022 and 2023 is their blueline. Victor Hedman has struggled to replicate his indomitable form of the past few years (though he noticeably stepped up his game in the playoffs last year), while Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta have both switched teams. Against high-possession teams, like the Leafs, the Lightning play man-to-man, a difficult structure to follow. Perhaps this may work with prime Victor Hedman and defensive stalwart McDonagh in the team, but it'll be hard for players like the untested Nick Perbix to handle minutes against the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander.
Both of these teams remained loaded on offense, though cap casualties from the last offseason may mean that the Leafs' bottom six has trumped Tampa Bay's in terms of value, a crucial revelation that certainly contributed to Toronto's elimination last season. The Lightning still have their superstar duo of Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, each of whom is coming off of predictable excellent seasons. Luckily for the Leafs, coach Sheldon Keefe may feel comfortable line-matching his best with the Bolts' top line, as Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner have developed into legitimately elite defensive forwards. With home-ice advantage, being able to dictate line changes for the majority of the games will be a crucial tool for Keefe to wield at Scotiabank Arena.
As much as Toronto's territorial dominance will be threatening, rush chances will be an integral part of the Buds' formula for success. Though Toronto went back home with an even 2-2 series, they had looked vulnerable and imperfect. The latter stages of Game 5 were Toronto's best minutes of the series. Their breakouts, typically led by four players on the rush, became a lot smoother and more seamless. With a slower D-corps than what they had last year, Tampa Bay will struggle to deal with the Leafs' rush attack. Sheldon Keefe has always preferred a more measured approach to offense. Still, if he can identify the Lightning's flawed rush defense in the same way that he did in Game 5, there may be another boost to Toronto's hopes.
It would be tacky for me to say that officiating is one of the few ways that Tampa Bay can repeat their victory over Toronto, but it's hardly inaccurate. From a roster-construction standpoint, the Leafs should be a far more effective even-strength team than their opponents, but they could throw it away by giving the referees a reason to penalize them. Special teams and goaltending are the great equalizers in the playoffs, so much so that 5-on-5 prowess is downright nullified. Per Cam Charron, the Lightning are 10-1 in playoff series since 2016 in which they have won the special teams battle. Toronto's power play is on par, if not better than Tampa Bay's, but it comes down to whichever team will receive the most amount of opportunities. The Lightning know the importance of keeping cool heads; the Leafs may not.
The other way for Tampa to repeat last year's feat is to pray that their superhuman goalie can go ballistic once more. Contrary to popular belief, Andrei Vasilevskiy was only average against the Leafs in the playoffs last year (if you ignore his Game 7 performance). But this is still a goalie that has gone 20-2 following a playoff loss in his entire career. For the Leafs to walk away with this comfortably, they may need to win two successive games. Sadly for them, only two teams have ever managed this (the Rangers and the Avalanche last year). As previously mentioned, Jon Cooper's defensive structure doesn't make Vasilevskiy's job easy, but it'll be difficult for Toronto's likely starter, fellow Russian ace Ilya Samsonov, to outduel the best netminder in the world.
I could write about this series for as long as I'd like, but it wouldn't accomplish much. Aside from the advantage in net and a circumstance in which Tampa Bay scores three power-play goals per game, most factors indicate that if last year's Leafs could keep up with the Lightning of 2022, this should be a more manageable task. If not, heads will roll.
The Leafs' biggest enemies are themselves. With home-ice advantage and the best roster of the Dubas era, the cautious optimists of Leafs Nation (myself included) may predict a tight series victory, but Toronto is perfectly capable of throwing away this golden opportunity. Either way, this series should be an instant classic.
Prediction: Toronto wins in 7 games
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs New York Islanders (WC1)
This matchup is surprisingly garnering a lot of attention for a potential upset since the Carolina Hurricanes are yet again facing another playoff run without the 'oomph' factor of most contenders. The Islanders are hardly reinvigorated under Lane Lambert, but in Ilya Sorokin, they have a series-stealing goaltender. As much as some fans may disagree, having a great goaltender trumps having a great roster in the tight games that typically follow the NHL postseason. It is for that reason that the Islanders should have a fighter's chance to pull off the upset in this Metro clash.
Despite their status as division winners, the Canes are not the cream of the crop in the East. The loss of Andrei Svechnikov has had severe ripple effects on the remainder of the Hurricanes' lineup. The overall forward depth suffers massively, but the biggest hit is to Carolina's top six. A major lack of game-breaking talent up front has always been the biggest criticism of GM Don Waddell's team; without Max Pacioretty and Andrei Svechnikov, that void is only magnified. The Hurricanes' offense will thus rely on the worker-bee nature of their four lines. One thing we can be certain of is that Sorokin will be busy during this series. Carolina aims to throw the puck at the net, rather than overcomplicating their offensive zone play. The entire roster is feisty enough to win 50/50 puck battles on a semi-regular basis and they play with a shape that typically overloads the space behind the hash marks with two net-crashers that will punish any rebounds that the Islanders' goalie concedes. The Isles' early boxout defensive zone coverage means that the weak side D will have to decide between going for a puck retrieval on his off side or covering the open man in front of the net. In all the New York tape that I’ve watched this season, I've mainly seen coach Lambert opting for man-to-man defense, meaning that those weak side retrievals, a staple of Carolina's offense, will be very easy to collect, potentially dooming the Islanders to long spurts of play without the puck.
The Islanders' offense is an atypical, staggered 2-1-2, with the roles constantly being juxtaposed between the players on the ice. The constant with this system is a big body acting as a screen to open space for interchanges between the center and strong side winger. The 2-1-2 is a relatively simple formation for most offenses that I don't mind, but against Carolina's high press DZC, offense may also be hard to muster. All of this seems to point to a breeze for Carolina, but not so fast.
Carolina has fallen off massively since losing Svechnikov, mainly because he is the keystone of Rod Brind'Amour's power play unit. As the 'trailer' in a 1-3-1 that doesn't contain many "shoot on sight" players, Svechnikov's absence has taken a massive toll on Carolina's play with the man advantage. Since his injury on March 11, the Canes have an ugly 10.9 PP%, the third lowest in the entire NHL over that span. Against a physical, grinding corps like that of New York, theoretically, the Hurricanes will find it even harder to generate offense. Sebastian Aho, a pass-first threat, will need to adopt a different mentality. The only natural successor to 'Svech' in Carolina's lineup is Pacioretty, who is also unavailable.
Though this may be a sight for sore eyes to behold if you are a neutral, I'd predict some very close games between the two. I only lean toward the Hurricanes, because they are better coached, a quality that often rears its head in grueling OT games.
As for New York's offense, they have gotten some good news. Mathew Barzal, per my estimation the franchise's most threatening forward, is returning from a long layoff. He possesses the type of vision and shooting instincts that can break apart a lesser D structure. Either way, the Isles become far more dimensional with the Coquitlam native in the team. Anders Lee and Bo Horvat both get much more proficient with Barzal in their midst. The Islanders' F2 is headlined by a very familiar name for any Leafs fans: Pierre Engvall. He brings a speed and pop element that was missing from the middle six. He has developed chemistry with Kyle Palmieri and Brock Nelson, who is particularly slept on. The fourth line of Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck will be familiar to longtime NHL fans, but it's not the same force of old.
On D, the Pelech-Pulock pair still sounds like a duo from a detective show of the mid-2000s, but they are also a trusted shutdown group. Noah Dobson has developed his puck-moving skills even more in his second full season and is ready to play the most meaningful hockey of his life since his dominant Memorial Cup run with Acadie-Bathurst in 2018. Scott Mayfield is also a good defensive defenseman. Overall, it's a good corps, but it simply does not match up with Carolina's insane blueline. Jaccob Slavin is typically great at playing an all-around game and his safety blanket tendencies fit the high-risk style of Brent Burns. In Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce, the Hurricanes have one of the best second pairs in the league, while Shayne Gostisbehere is a great puck-mover in sheltered third-pair minutes. New York's defense is quite solid, but Carolina has unmatched quality on the back end.
Ilya Sorokin, fresh off posting a .924 SV% in 2022-23 and challenging for the Vezina (he would be my pick), is where the Islanders can claim superiority. Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta is a perfectly competent goalie tandem, but Sorokin is a top-3 netminder in the NHL, something that can't be replicated. When considering upsets, I like to pick the team with the better goalie, but I don't think that the offense is good enough to steal the entire series. A couple of games could certainly go the other way, but a Canes victory is the most logical option here.
Prediction: Carolina wins in 6
New Jersey Devils (M2) vs New York Rangers (M3)
A net front tussle (Bruce Bennett, Getty Images)
This projects to be a fascinating series between two local rivals, notably a rematch of the 2012 Eastern Conference finals, one of my personal favourite matchups of all time. The Rangers were expected to be here after pushing ahead with their rebuild last season and embarking upon an impressive playoff run, while the Devils have turned up the clock on their own retool to challenge for the division title.
Strangely, these teams are simultaneously the most flawed and the most excellent of all the Eastern Conference contenders. The Devils and the Rangers, respectively, have very unique styles, and their stubborn coaches are so dogmatic about sticking to the group's strengths that this series could genuinely result in any outcome without too much surprise stemming from the analytics community. New Jersey is a rapid team, highly geared towards the rush. They have acquired some excellent puck-movers on the back end and since the entire team is so collectively quick, it will be fairly easy for the Devils to create mismatches off of D-zone breakouts. No other team in the NHL can stretch the ice in such a short period of time. With the perfect set of profiles and a balance on their top-3 forward lines, Lindy Ruff's team forces their opponents to occupy each lane of play and ensures that defending the whole rink is a necessary principle. This allows overloads, as the players are spread out, but they are also in close proximity to any open spaces. The Rangers, by contrast, are infamous for their heavy play and stifling forecheck. Perhaps, in days gone by, New York's size advantage, especially in so-called "playoff hockey", would be deemed more notable, but as offense begins to develop into the prevailing king of the modern-day NHL, the Devils' superior speed leaves me to believe that they warrant favourite status in this series.
Like the Maple Leafs, New York employs a motion offense with narrow defensemen and low cycles. This means that the Rangers can have their way with weaker teams, but against an aggressive team, like the Devils, their forecheck (usually a 1-2-2 shape) will need to be inch-perfect. With two forwards deep to prevent reverse passes, the Rangers' OZ forecheck works to a high level most of the time. However, New Jersey is so quick that another approach may be explored.
The Devils have shown enough in their possession numbers over regular season hockey, but in the playoffs, a potentially small sample, nobody will care if they can win the xG battle over their Metropolitan rivals. Thus, goaltending is the big debate here. The collective team save percentages were actually quite similar this season (.916 to .921 at even strength, in the Rangers' favour), but there is still the sense that we have yet to see the best of Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers' franchise goalie was far and away the best at his position in the league last year, but he has regressed toward the mean. Meanwhile, Devils' offseason acquisition Vitek Vanecek exceeded expectations by saving 13.3 goals above expected. However, based solely on fundamentals and completely ignoring the statistics (not something I usually do), there is no debate: Shesterkin is clearly the best netminder in this matchup, and that often means a lot during elimination hockey.
Each of these teams have had hurdles during the regular season at even strength, but a closer examination of the rosters reflects two teams with unmatched talent. The Devils run three lines deep, spreading out their respective stars, Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, and Timo Meier to create matchup nightmares for any opposition. Per Dom Luszczyszyn, New Jersey carries far greater value amidst their forward group than the Rangers (+27 to +4). However, nobody can debate the star power of a unit containing proven scorers like Chris Kreider, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Vladimir Tarasenko. New York's top-6 has yet to click at the rate that they can, but if coach Gerard Gallant finds the right chemistry early in the series, the Devils may have a short stint of meaningful hockey. Lower down the order, New York's "Kid Line" of Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko disappointed this year, but the trio was a revelation in the 2022 postseason, outscoring opponents 10-5 at even strength. If the three youngsters continue to play well in the clutch, the bottom-six differential becomes much more swayed in the Blueshirts' favour.
Defense is an interesting battle here, as New York clearly has the best blueliner in Norris Trophy contender Adam Fox, but overall, I'd argue that the Devils are also the more talented team in this department. Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler are great fits in the transition environment of a Lindy Ruff system, as they are excellent-puck movers and strong skaters once they hit their stride. Further down, Damon Severson contributes a lot offensively, while the Ryan Graves-John Marino pairing is a prototypical D2 line. The Rangers, though, have the greatest breakout potential, in K'Andre Miller. Miller has the ideal mix of size, mobility, and anticipation; his shutdown potential was always clear, but after increasing his comfort level with the system, he has added a legit offensive element to his game. If the Rangers go far this spring, expect Miller to be a crucial part of it.
All signs point to a long and grueling series between two very different teams, but I like to be brave with my predictions. If the Rangers prevail, I expect they'll gather momentum and may even make the Cup Finals. However, let us not forget that Pittsburgh had New York on the ropes last year: up 3-1 in the series before shockingly blowing the lead. The Devils of 2023 are far better than last year's Penguins and I think their speed can expose an element of the Rangers that we have yet to see. Gallant's team will be pinned back by a relentless and hungry side, eager to make their mark. I may be underestimating size and experience, but I'm a modern thinker, one who values speed and talent above all. Call me crazy, but I think this series will be over quickly.
Prediction: New Jersey wins in 5
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs Seattle Kraken (WC1)
Alex Wennberg holds off Nathan MacKinnon (Steph Chambers, Getty Images)
In a sense, these teams are entirely different. The reigning Stanley Cup champion Avalanche have ensured their own legacy with a previous Cup win, but are now looking to seal their place in the history books with yet another successful playoff run. Meanwhile, the Seattle Kraken are almost completely unproven and inexperienced, utterly lacking in any actual superstar talent, a serious contrast to the loaded Avs roster. It is no surprise to see the second-year expansion franchise as serious underdogs, but the magic of the NHL postseason is that nothing is set in stone.
Colorado's offense needs no introduction. Even without key contributors from last season in their injured captain Gabriel Landeskog and free agent departure Nazem Kadri, there is no sleeping on the Avs' scoring potential. Their afflictions up front have led to the necessity of a system change. Far less potent without two of their best secondary scoring threats of a season gone by, coach Jared Bednar now encourages more pushing from his defensemen. Typically, in offensive zone play, the weak-side defenseman will make a cut to activate at the back post, offering another option for Colorado's playmakers to consider. In the meantime, Colorado's superstars, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, will cycle to generate medium-danger shots. The Avs' second line of Nichuskin-Compher-Lehkonen is a dual-threat group that works well in the dirty areas and often creates second-chance opportunities for each other. Like most teams, Colorado's offense consists of a front two creating chaos at the net front and forechecking with high intensity. It's a simple formation that caters to the scoring instincts of the team's skilled defenders, notably Cale Makar. However, Seattle's box+1 defensive zone coverage is, on paper, a good match. The Kraken utilize a mixed man-to-man/zone defense with two forwards pressing the defensemen in the central lanes at the edges of the triangle. As Colorado's D2 drops into the area between the hash marks, one of Seattle's forwards will be forced to cover. However, due to the Kraken's previously established net-front box shape around their goaltender, that numerical superiority that Colorado is so used to obtaining simply vanishes. Seattle is notably missing a shutdown defenseman from their roster (Adam Larsson possesses the highest defensive value of any Kraken blueliner), so if the Avs can find gaps in the box formation, this will be a short series.
Meanwhile, Seattle's offense has been stimulated by GM Ron Francis' most notable recent acquisitions. Bringing in former Avalanche contributor Andre Burakovsky, as well as Oliver Bjorkstrand, has given Dave Hakstol actual tools to run a competent transition attack. Burakovsky and Bjorkstrand have been revelations, but impressive rookie Matty Beniers is the real highlight of the cutback-based O-zone play. Unfortunately, Burakovsky will miss this series, but the process has been established. With quick and skilled forwards fanning out in a prong shape when penetrating the neutral zone, the puck carrier usually has a free route into the zone or a clear cutback to the other defenseman. Jared McCann, Seattle's most impressive player in Year 1, has gone from strength to strength, playing the left flank to perfection in this system. Amidst periods of sustained pressure, coach Dave Hakstol opts for a basic 2-1-2, highlighted by trademark deep pinches on the half wall and vacant lane filling by another forward (waiver acquisition Eeli Tolvanen is especially proficient at replacing the D; Seattle has quietly made some really smart, under-the-radar moves to fill in their gaps on the roster). Breaking through Colorado's ever-changing defensive zone coverage is a task unto itself. I expect Bednar to persist with a 'five tight' formation, not allowing much space below the faceoff dot. It's an aggressive shape that favors the Avalanche's top pairing of Makar and Devon Toews. Nonetheless, it has a crucial flaw. Since it is a stubbornly instilled man-to-man, if one of Seattle's tricky wingers, like Jaden Schwartz, McCann, or Daniel Sprong, escapes their marker on the boards, they have an easy route to behind the net and can often open up a passing lane. Since the Toews-Makar duo is so aggressive, Samuel Girard and Josh Manson may be relied on more than expected to keep Seattle at bay.
Seattle had a poor year on the power play, lacking below league average in goal scoring and shot quality. Short-handed, the Kraken are actually quite decent at suppressing shots with instinctive bodies in the slot, but conceding too many penalties against this dynamic Avalanche team is a recipe for disaster. Hakstol will hope that his team has no need to prove their PK prowess on many occasions, though it's highly unlikely that Colorado's run-and-gun power play doesn't get many opportunities in this series. The Central champs scored at a clip of 2.4 goals per 60 more than their first-round opponents. That is a significant margin that can sway any series in a certain direction.
The next topic of conversation worth discussing is the crease situation. Though Philipp Grubauer was much improved, he has still failed to shake off the shaky goaltending allegations that have plagued him since he left Colorado to become the first starter in Kraken history. Meanwhile, Alexander Georgiev has been everything that Avs' management could have expected. Plucky underdogs need a goalie that can swing the course of a game. The eye test and statistics point to the fact that a Grubauer-Martin Jones tandem cannot get that done.
I have a feeling that it's worth betting on the Kraken to pull off the improbable, but for now, I'll play it safe and pick the team with the much stronger top six, the best defense pairing in the series, and the more stable netminder to move on.
Prediction: Colorado wins in 6
Dallas Stars (C2) vs Minnesota Wild (C3)
Mason Marchment tries to score past Filip Gustavsson (Bruce Fedyck, Getty Images)
Another series that will be dictated by defense and goaltending, the Stars-Wild matchup is quite similar to Hurricanes-Islanders. The Stars are certainly a more ruthless team with the puck, but Minnesota is more than capable of frustrating their opponents. Both of these teams are equally stacked with star power, as Dallas can claim American superstar Jason Robertson as their own, while Minnesota is led by Russian sniper Kirill Kaprizov. With narrow games expected, this series could simply come down to whichever's squad's top players can take over a period of hockey. This is one that I'm confident will go the distance.
The biggest difference between this Stars team and groups from the past is the secondary scoring options available to Pete DeBoer. Admittedly, the Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz line has developed even further, but if not for notable contributions down the lineup, from players like Jamie Benn and Wyatt Johnston, this would be a far less potent offense. DeBoer often differs in his tactical instructions for his team's O-zone play, based on which line matchups he can dictate. Home advantage will naturally be a boon to the Stars' chances for this reason. With the first line, the Stars play a deep 2-1-2 with the weak side winger and the center below the net. This often allows the strong-side winger to get in a dangerous slot position and wait for Pavelski's rotation behind the net. When their depth lines take the ice, Dallas opts for a 2-3, similar in many ways to their other structure, but slightly safer to avoid conceding chances off the rush. Instead of pinning a player to the slot, they keep a forward pinned between D1 and D2, ready to go downhill into the hash marks area at any opportunity. This 2-3 shape is much more active than the 2-1-2 and it suits the strengths of Johnston, who has emerged as a valuable middle-six creator. Minnesota will combat this with man-to-man coverage, which, in theory, will make the defending center's job very difficult. On one shift, they may need to track Pavelski behind the goal line; on the next, they'll have to play tight to either Max Domi or Johnston. Without their best defensive player, Joel Eriksson Ek, for most, if not all, of the series, the Wild will need excellence from their depth guys.
Offensively, Minnesota has figured out the art of triangles at even strength. Though their 2-1-2 formation is pretty basic, the players all act as if they are connected by a chain, always ensuring that a passing lane is available. Head coach Dean Evason likes the installation of two triangles: an attack-based one, with the two wingers and the center, as well as a support-based shape, between the center and the two D-men. This evidently puts a lot of responsibility on the Wild's personnel down the middle, which doesn't bode well, as it is clear where the team is most lacking. Even with Eriksson Ek, Minnesota hasn't had a legit top-line center in a very long time. That's a crucial tool to have and it will hurt them. Ryan Hartman and the recently extended Frederick Gaudreau must step up their games. Dallas' aggressive swarm defense might put them in hot water against the back-door cuts of the weak-side defenseman in Minnesota's offense. Since all five of the Stars' skaters will be congesting the attack triangle, the Wild may struggle to generate offense from their forwards. But the pitfall with the swarm system is that it leaves somebody open; with a dynamic playmaker like John Klingberg on their back end, Minnesota is absolutely a team that can take advantage. Minnesota had one of the poorest actual goals per 60 rates in the league, but systemically, they have a chance to break the Stars down.
The Wild will live and die by their top two wingers, Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, who have developed an admirable brotherly relationship on the ice. Kaprizov is utterly electric and should add pop to a team that has constantly been accused of lacking a game-breaker. Zuccarello complements him beautifully, with pass-first instincts and a decent defensive game. The Wild's second line contains a major breakout candidate in Matt Boldy, who has been impressive in his sophomore season. This trio would undoubtedly be better with Eriksson Ek in the midst, but Gaudreau and Marcus Johansson are no slouches on either side of the puck. The Wild no longer have their defensive ace, the GREEF line, to wield. Marcus Foligno is still there, but he is partnered by Sam Steel and Gustav Nyquist, both of whom have limited scoring upside.
The Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz line should win all their minutes, so the onus comes down to the Stars' middle six. Mason Marchment and Max Domi are improvements upon what Dallas had last year, though they are hard to judge as players, as we have yet to see either man's best in a Stars uniform. Tyler Seguin, currently enjoying a nice bounce-back year, will play RW for that group. The Benn-Johnston-Dadonov line has strong offensive metrics, but their play in the DZ leaves a lot to be desired. Evason will probably try to target this group with his first line.
On defense, Dallas has the best blueliner of this matchup in Miro Heiskanen. The Finn has developed his puck-moving this year and he remains excellent in his own end. He can turn defense to offense, unlike any other D-man in the league. The Wild have a stud of their own in Jared Spurgeon. In my opinion, Spurgeon is the best defensive defenseman in the entire NHL. Alongside the bulky Jacob Middleton, Minnesota has a great shutdown pair that should play the majority of minutes against Dallas' first line. Ex-Wild star Ryan Suter has formed a decent pair with deadline acquisition Nils Lundkvist, but it doesn't compete with Minnesota's Jonas Brodin-Matt Dumba duo, each of whom are quick and strong players.
The possibility of high-end goaltending is very strong here. Jake Oettinger proved that his show-stopping play against Calgary in last year's playoffs was not a fluke, backstopping a .919 SV% and 21.65 goals saved above expected. In almost any other series, Oettinger would be an advantage. But not here, you could argue. Filip Gustavsson was supposed to be a reclamation piece after trading Cam Talbot last season, but in a stable tandem with one of the greatest goalies of his era in Marc-Andre Fleury, Gustavsson delivered a season for the ages. He had a .931 save percentage and saved 24.54 goals above expected. If the lights get too bright for the youngster, Evason has Fleury waiting in the wings.
The Wild will need their strong defense to play out of their minds to keep this in their grasp. Luckily, I'm a big believer in all three pairings that Minnesota can roll out. Structurally, I think the Wild have a path to victory. I'm calling it right now: John Klingberg is going to absolutely dominate his old team, whether it be at even strength or on the power play. This would be a shock, but it's not completely crazy.
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs Winnipeg Jets (WC2)
Connor Hellebuyck and Jack Eichel (Ethan Miller, Getty Images)
Under new coaches, I'm looking forward to watching a series that seemed to be a possible Western Conference final at some point, before the Jets dropped off in the spring. Though Winnipeg's play in 2023 has been far from inspiring, they were a powerhouse of the early season and looked en route to a long playoff run. Vegas, under new coach Bruce Cassidy, have been slightly above average in just about every department, but this is a team that doesn't mimic the dominance of a division winner. There's a lot of potential for the group to put it all together, but both of these teams seem highly vulnerable on paper.
Vegas has gone back to the basics under Cassidy's watch with a general 2-3 shape. Management has provided the coaching staff with a proper set of veterans with a strong tactical reading of the game. The OZ play revolves around high cycles. The first forward in the system circulates around the defensemen and receives the layoffs. Around F1, options start to present themselves. The second forward sits in front of the net, blocking the lanes and creating chaos at the net front. This often allows for more second-chance options off the block. Meanwhile, the opposite winger circles around the half-wall and skates downhill, either waiting at the circle for a one-timer or overloading the net front. It's a very safe offense, but it's easy to play and gives the forwards a set of options to select at any given time. Winnipeg will use a low swarm coverage to recover pucks quickly out of the corners. If the puck is bumped up the wall, the players interchange and double-team on the opponent's puck carrier. This is a system that can only work for a team with an elite goaltender, as any high-pressure D-zone shape is rather porous. Luckily for Winnipeg, they have a candidate for that in Connor Hellebuyck, a perennial Vezina candidate. Hellebuyck's importance cannot be stated in words. Winnipeg's chances to win rely solely on the American netminder posting a .925 SV% or higher. If not, the Golden Knights should win this handily.
Winnipeg's offense relies on the preeminence of their top line of Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Nikolaj Ehlers. These three complement each other to a tee. They forfeit the opportunity to park anybody in front, instead opting to keep two players at the half wall and open up lanes for the defenseman or center to roll downhill to the area between the hash marks. This play is almost entirely built for that first line and it complements Nik Ehlers' skills very well. Ehlers is my favourite non-Leaf in the league, as he possesses the defensive instincts to play off the bumper and he is skilled enough to slip through on the half-block. Though Rick Bowness has found the perfect formula for his stars to succeed, this offense has yet to click for the depth forwards. This has led to reshuffling the lines. It takes away from Winnipeg's top trio but spreads the star power around. Winnipeg needs more than just a superhuman performance from Hellebuyck; they need the middle six to completely buy into the process. The Knights will evidently make that difficult, formulating a slot collapse, almost daring the opposition to turn the puck over. Cassidy, always known as a specialist at chance prevention as a coach, has one of the most active defenses in the league. While the coverage fans out around in a 3-2 shape, the defensemen hold their position on the posts. I'm eager to see if that trend sticks, or if they decide to press into the corners to prevent the Jets from establishing superiority on the walls.
Outside of their top six, the Jets rarely get major offensive contributions, especially with young center Cole Perfetti ruled out with an injury. They do receive certain notable contributions from the back end, especially from one of 2023's greatest success stories, Josh Morrissey. A much more well-rounded player than he has been in the past, the blueliner is garnering faint Norris Trophy buzz. His shot has developed significantly, and you can imagine that he'll be pulling the trigger often against his former teammate, Laurent Brossoit.
The injury to Vegas' goaltenders Logan Thompson and Robin Lehner has forced Cassidy into a tandem of Brossoit and Jonathan Quick. Though I believe that Quick will eventually surpass his less experienced colleague, ex-Jet Brossoit will probably get the nod for Game 1, presenting a real advantage for Winnipeg. Brossoit is likely no more than a good backup option in the NHL, whereas Hellebuyck is a bona fide star. For all of Vegas' star power, the gap between the crease play is only magnified during playoff time; this is Winnipeg's greatest trump card.
That aforementioned star power will be critical for the Golden Knights, not solely in this series, but particularly if they aim to lift Lord Stanley's chalice. I've said it now and I'll say it again: this is the right environment for Jack Eichel's final breakthrough. He has been a talented player since he was selected by Buffalo in the 2015 draft, but those endless comparisons to Connor McDavid have always hung over Eichel's head. With a potential matchup against McDavid himself in the next round, I'm fully on board with the idea of Eichel single-handedly leading his team to the Pacific finals. With a tried and trusted supporting cast consisting of William Karlsson, Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault, this Vegas team can reach a level that we have yet to witness under Cassidy. Add in two offensively gifted defensemen in Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore, and you can see why I'm willing to ignore the goaltending gap.
Though Hellebuyck and Co. will make this close, having the raucous Vegas crowd for the majority of the series will be a major boost to the Knights. They strike me as the type of team that can outperform expectations after the hype has died down.
Prediction: Vegas wins in 7
Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs Los Angeles Kings (P3)
Leon Draisaitl and Anze Kopitar (Perry Nelson, USA Today)
A rematch of last year's series, which Edmonton won in 7, pits two high-powered offenses against each other in a likely entertaining series for the neutral watcher. Obviously, any series featuring Connor McDavid and Leon Drasaitl flies up my watchlist, but even the Kings have been stimulated by the arrival of Kevin Fiala, Vladislav Gavrikov, and Joonas Korpisalo. The Kings are the second-best defense in the league since the trade deadline and for all the improvements that the Oilers have made over the last year, Los Angeles is right in line with them. Edmonton has become a titanic force in the league, but I still believe that L.A.'s chances are in a similar vein to what they were last year. That's a credit to both teams.
Edmonton's offense runs through two top-5 players in the NHL, which is a pretty valuable commodity to have. As McDavid has improved his defensive game to allow for even more minutes, he will be out on the ice at an even more regular rate than last year. With a player as dynamic as him, the Kings' defensive structure will be tested throughout each game. Los Angeles plays a very tight shape, congesting their five forwards onto the strong side of the puck and double-teaming the puck carrier. Theoretically, that may be a good way to stop a puck carrier of McDavid's magnanimous quality. It will be a good test of the league's best player's abilities. Though the DZC is flawed in my mind, the Kings are certainly going to challenge the Oilers' supporting cast to create offense of their own accord. That is why the Kings were a tough matchup for Edmonton last year. However, Edmonton has seen some major development in its top six and has made astute acquisitions at the trade deadline. On offense, Connor McDavid will roll up, attracting the two back-checkers, but whoever is guarding him will have a monumental task, as nobody in NHL history can barrel downhill with or without the puck as quickly and efficiently as McDavid can. After that move from McDavid, it will come down to which team can win the following net-front retrievals. If L.A. can do so with any regularity, they can certainly stymie their opponents.
Los Angeles uses a 2-3 offensive zone shape with both wingers on the strong side and a rolling center at the tip of the strong side circle to maintain offensive zone time. This structure is built perfectly to suit the Kings' top two centers, Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault, both of whom are adept at forcing turnovers with their stick instincts and turning at a close radius. Edmonton will likely defend that by matching man-to-man with the two wingers, likely with the center and the strong-side blueliner. This will put a lot of defensive onus on McDavid, but due to his speed, it will allow the Oilers to break out with McDavid up the middle. Since McDavid is tracking his man into the corner, the weak-side winger will be up against Kopitar and Danault. This will be notable during Evander Kane's minutes, as he is a truly horrid defender: lackadaisical and ignorant with his tracking. I wonder if Los Angeles' coach Todd McLellan inverts a deadlier shooter, like winger Kevin Fiala or Adrian Kempe, though that may take too much away from the defensive translation through the neutral zone.
Fiala has been a personal favourite for a long time, and though he didn't exceed expectations in his first year on the West Coast, he was nevertheless a PPG player. If he stays healthy, expect to watch a dynamic and speedy player with game-changing ability. For the prospect aficionados, seeing former 2nd overall pick Quinton Byfield be line-matched with McDavid for approximately 15 minutes each game will be fascinating. I'll be watching the Kings' unsung heroes, Trevor Moore (formerly of the Maple Leafs) and Gabe Vilardi, both of whom have provided positive defensive impacts and been solid offensively. However, as underrated as many Los Angeles forwards are, they simply don't compare with the firepower that Edmonton can bring to the table. No other team had more than one 100-point scorer this season; Edmonton had three. McDavid and Draisaitl deservedly receive the plaudits in the media, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has justified the hype with a career year, scoring 37 goals and contributing 67 assists (though over 50% of his points came with the man advantage). Zach Hyman was another who used the Oilers' league-best power play to post a career-high in almost every offensive category. Hyman adds a lot to Edmonton's weak-side retrieval-based offense. Lower down in the chart, Nick Bjugstad and Derek Ryan have been pleasant surprises in terms of suppressing chances.
From L.A.'s perspective, their most marked improvement comes from the presence of Drew Doughty, who missed last season's series through injury. Doughty has proven over the last couple of years that the rumours of his demise were greatly exaggerated with a return to mid-2010s Doughty. He is a dual threat, phenomenal on offense and at shutting down the best that the Kings' opponents have to offer. Mikey Anderson is one of the most underrated defensemen in the league, per my estimation, and a matchup against the Oilers' run-and-gun offense could serve as the backdrop for his breakout performance. Matt Roy still holds a soft spot in my heart after the World Championship a couple of years back. Sean Durzi, another former Leaf, has a lot going for him, but this will be a challenge. Meanwhile, Vladislav Gavrikov, the Kings' marquee deadline acquisition, has looked every inch of the player that L.A. management thought they were getting. If the Kings can stick with the defensive structure that has been so effective over the last month, they are one of the few teams in the NHL that can lock down Edmonton. The Oilers' blueline has been a constant target of criticism, but the trade for Mattias Ekholm has resolved so many issues. Ekholm is a legit top pair D-man, strong in his impacts on both ends of the ice. Bringing him in pushes Darnell Nurse to the second pair, a more adequate place for the talented, but flawed, player. Evan Bouchard has also been a key part of the success of Edmonton's PP unit, combining succinct puck-moving with uncanny vision. Trading for Ekholm means that the Oilers' defense won't be as easy to crack as in previous years.
The net battle is the most interesting of this series. High-paid netminder Jack Campbell failed to provide stable goaltending for the Oilers, but rookie Stuart Skinner has been wonderful all season. Skinner should get the glove for Game 1. His counterpart will likely be Joonas Korpisalo, a throw-in of the Gavrikov trade. After becoming a King, Korpisalo has posted a .921 save percentage, one point higher than Skinner's over that same time period. These are two talented goaltenders, but they are undoubtedly Scotch tape options to bandage the wound. Play in the goal likely won't dictate this series in the same way that it might for other matchups in this postseason.
An upset cannot be ruled out, but the Oilers are getting hot at just the right time. Momentum means a lot in the NHL and while the Kings aren't slacking either, only one team has two top-5 players in the league and that is the club that should advance.
Prediction: Edmonton wins in 7
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK, THE ATHLETIC, AND MONEYPUCK
GRAPHICS FOUND VIA THE HOCKEY TACTICS NEWSLETTER AND THE ATHLETIC
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