Connor Bedard (Andy Devlin, Getty Images)
Merry Christmas to those who celebrate! While I had a particularly enjoyable weekend, the real celebration for fans of hockey begins on Boxing Day, the infamous date that marks the beginning of the IIHF World Juniors. There's a magic around the planet's most prestigious junior hockey tournament that simply can't be replicated.
There is certainly an odder vibe around this edition, particularly considering we were blessed with WJC action just a few months ago, following the postponement of the 2022 version, to COVID-19 complications. However, once the puck is dropped, I'm expecting similarly world-class entertainment value.
The big story off the ice is Team Russia's absence. The unprovoked invasion into Ukraine has had unsightly ramifications for sport in both countries. For the second consecutive tourney, the Russians will not send a team, instantly taking off a true competitor for the throne out of the equation, particularly considering the presence of the dynamic Matvei Michkov.
On a brighter note, Connor Bedard is the kid taking all the headlines in Halifax. Considered by most analysts to be the best draft-eligible player since Connor McDavid in 2015, the 17-year old has taken the WHL by storm in his sophomore year, showcasing an absolutely deadly release and soft hands in front of the net.
In this article, I will preview all 10 teams, including the players that I will be watching intently, overall strengths and weaknesses as well as predictions for the knockout rounds.
Group A
1. Canada
As usual, the Canadians will be a force on the global stage. Though some key figures on this summer's gold-medal winning squad will be absent (including MVP Mason MacTavish), the forward corps is still the deepest of any nation. A one-two punch of Shane Wright and Adam Fantilli at the center position can hardly be matched by more accomplished teams at the AHL level.
However, not even those two future stars can overshadow the inhuman numbers of phenom Connor Bedard. A few months younger than me, Bedard has 64 points in 28 games for the Regina Pats during the current CHL season. The pre-tournament action displayed his difference-making abilities, whether it be on the power play or at even strength. A rare skill that must be noted is Bedard's compete level. The 2022 WJC was the first showcase of his relentless physical play, often throwing his frame around to pin opponents in the corner and press at the half line.
Other forwards that have caught my eye include Brennan Othmann, Logan Stankoven and Reid Schaefer.
Othmann will continue to build upon his chemistry with Wright from this August as his primary left winger. The former Flint Firebird plays with an edge to his game, but his underrated skill and much-improved skating ability have helped him become a seamless fit on Canada's first line.
Stankoven has boosted his reputation hugely in the past year, putting up big numbers at the prior edition and for Kamloops of the WHL. More than just a skill player, Stankoven, drafted by the Dallas Stars in 2021, has polished his all-around game; he was a crucial faceoff taker for Canada at the last tourney.
Schaefer has had a meteoric rise over the past few years. Ranked as a 'C' prospect by the CSS in 2020, the winger was a first-round pick in the latest draft. In the vein of Alex Killorn, Schaefer is a big-bodied player who can score and thrive in the dirty areas of the ice.
The defense is equally talented for Canada. Led by their experienced top pairing of Olen Zellweger and Ethan Del Mastro, the blue line has struck the perfect balance between puck-moving and defensive solidity. Savvy and committed, the Zellweger-Del Mastro duo is expected to take the brunt of responsibilities during special teams situations.
The Sincere Sports' One to Watch is Kevin Korchinski. The Chicago draftee attacks the middle lane with the confidence of an NHL veteran. A talented playmaker, Korchinski can create mismatches and overload the O-zone with ease. I'm ready to buy stocks in this player and watch them explode in value.
The only potential Achilles heel is in net. There is no Devon Levi or Carey Price to provide a near-certain .920+ SV%, as Canada will likely choose the struggling Benjamin Gaudreau to man the crease in the first game. If the Sarnia Sting netminder isn't up to the task, undrafted Thomas Milic will step in at just 6'0.
2. Sweden
The kings of the group stage, Tre Kronor will have to deal with a significantly weakened roster. The omissions of Elias Salomonsson, Simon Edvinsson and Mattias Havelid are tough to swallow, but the Swedes will have to manage. While Bedard and Fantilli have been garnering most of the headlines for the 2023 draft, Leo Carlsson has been dominant in the SHL and he can provide a much-needed burst of offense to the nation. They are also blessed with a collection of skilled wingers, including Isak Rosen, Fabian Lysell, Jonathan Lekkerimaki and Liam Ohgren. However, Lysell and Rosen are the only truly consistent difference-makers at this stage of their respective careers. Pre-tournament showed that Sweden will have to ride these two stars offensively.
Funnily enough, my three must-watch forwards share a junior club and are linemates at the international level. On the left is Liam Ohgren, a Minnesota Wild draftee, with loads of skill and a heavy shot. The right flank is manned by Lekkerimaki, a high potential Vancouver Canucks prospect. I am personally very high on him; I believe he has more to his game than just his laser shot. He's a legitimate forechecker. Though I've become more skeptical this year, he's still capable of putting up 10+ points at this tournament. Noah Ostlund is the opposite of Lekkerimaki: a player that I didn't believe in at the draft, but he has grown on me a lot recently.
On D, the Swedes have my favourite 2023 draft-eligible prospect. Axel Sandin-Pellikka is a calm blueliner, known for his poise and smart usage of his body. He may not munch minutes immediately, particularly given his age, but I'd be shocked if he didn't gain the confidence of coach Magnus Havelid. I'm also prepared to add to my notes on Calle Odelius, a physical beast who will log tons of ice time.
Sweden are one of the rare teams to have any sense of confidence with their goaltending situation. Carl Lindblom has been excellent in the SHL, posting a .936 SV% in a men's league. Sweden have typically been recognized for their phenomenal goalie development, so Lindblom has a lineage of fellow netminders from which he can draw inspiration.
3. Czechia
The fourth-placed finishers in Edmonton, the Czechs have become an unlikely powerhouse in the hockey world. Keep in mind that these are simply my group stage predictions, as I'm assuming that Czechia can still gather a bit of momentum en route to a respectable finish in the knockout rounds. Like Germany, there is a healthy collection of returnees, while the new blood that has been brought in should add a new dimension to the squad.
Jiri Kulich has gained several plaudits for his performances at the 2022 WJC and during the current AHL season. The Sabres prospect has the clutch gene and could prove to be one of the breakout players of the campaign. The key trend that one can easily notice with the Czech players is their size. 7 forwards are listed as 6'3 or taller. While size is always an advantage, it is especially prevalent against younger competition, particularly those who have yet to grow into their bodies. Jakub Kos and Jaroslav Chmelar, in particular, are going to be absolute pains to handle. But don't ignore the skill of this team. Young Eduard Sale is going to be a stud one day: a toolsy winger with lots of skill. His performance at the U-18s was incredible and if he can translate that to the U-20 level, Czechia will make me look foolish.
Defense may be even more of a strength. David Jiricek, a 6th overall pick, has been very mature during his AHL stint. He is also massive. Stanislav Svozil, a WJC veteran, has added a point-scoring element to his game this season. Former U-18 star Tomas Hamara is a new addition. I haven't watched him before, but I have been reading about his puck-moving skills. He could show some promise.
Returning goalie Tomas Suchanek was the hero in August, notably putting forth an incredible performance to knock out the USA. Having a safety blanket is crucial when things get out of hand, which they often do at amateur showcases like these.
4. Germany
Germany are keeping with the trend of continuity, like many of the other second tier hockey national teams. They've elected to leave all the eligible 17-year old players at home, including talented Kevin Bicker, one of the biggest snubs of the tournament. We will soon see whether the returning player strategy will pay dividends.
Their forward corps has some intriguing names on the list. The Heigl twins, Germany's equivalent to the Sedin brothers, are quick, skillful players from the Austrian league. I'm eager to see if there is any brotherly connection there to be discovered. As a neutral, Bennet Rosmy has always been an intriguing figure: a power forward that spends too much time in the box to be a consistent threat. His whopping 29 penalty minutes during August's rendition of the tourney are a crucial part of his game, but to benefit the team, he needs to be more disciplined. Julian Lutz, a second-round draft pick, has real NHL pedigree and will be considered a disappointment if he doesn't show some shiftiness.
Unfortunately, the Germans won't be a shutdown outfit in Halifax, as they have lost Maksymilian Szuber and Luca Munzenberger to the age requirement rule. New starting goalie Nikita Quapp will have to be sharp, as he'll likely be facing a lot of chances.
Czechia have the weight of legitimate expectations on their shoulders that were not present during the 2022 WJC. Germany need to keep it simple and stay competitive in the games that they are expected to do so. If they can manage that, a third-place finish is surely within reach. However, I'm going to be slightly pessimistic and say that Germany's most likely position is 4th.
5. Austria
As it did in their last 2 showings, things could well get ugly for Austria, particularly without their best prospect, Marco Kasper. Barring an unreal upset, Austria are set up for failure. They don't have a heroic goaltender to steal the show, but their lack of puck movement and possession will lead to some unsightly shot totals. The only possible formula for success would be to concede less than 2 goals per game and get lucky with their finishing.
Vinzenz Rohrer, of the Montreal Canadiens, is the most likely difference-maker. However, he projects as more of an energetic spark plug than an actual world-class forward. He'll have young Ian Scherzer to provide a finishing touch on offense The Rogle product is garnering interest from some teams for the 2023 draft. Maybe he turns it up a notch with the scouts in attendance.
On defense, David Reinbacher is another 2023-eligible with lots of potential. He's currently ranked as the 6th-best undrafted prospect at this tournament by the Athletic's Corey Pronman. Reinbacher is tall, with a long reach and he is a quick skater. Hockey is a team sport, so it's hard to see how Reinbacher's reputation escapes this likely tragedy in a state other than tatters. Christoph Tialler is a no-nonsense guy; Austria need more of those low-risk blueliners to subdue opposing key forwards.
Austria's best players will have to be their goalies. Thomas Pfarrmaier, the back-up in August, is expected to step up into the starter's role. He's going to allow a lot of goals, no matter how defensively solid Austria appear to be.
Group B
1. United States
A disheartening loss to Czechia in August destroyed any sense of progress that USA hockey seems to have built. A talented team, evidently, there comes a time where results are necessary and the States simply haven't been on top of their game for a couple of years now.
To be drafted over Shane Wright certainly comes with a sense of responsibility, but Logan Cooley has taken it in stride. The Arizona Coyotes draft pick has been on a real heater in the NCAA and now he'll be placed with players from the NTDP that he will have developed some familiarity. His linemates will likely be Jimmy Snuggerud and Cutter Gauthier, two versatile forwards who love to pound the offensive zone. Snuggerud, in particular, is somebody who I expect to have a strong tournament. Revisit this article in a month's time when he scores 5+ goals at the tournament.
Two Jets prospects, Rutger McGroarty and Chaz Lucius, are dual-threat scorers, likely to garner time on the PP. Tyler Boucher of Ottawa is the pinnacle of this USA forward group: gritty, capable of scoring in different ways, tough to play against. They don't have the same elite talent as a team like Canada, but they are so stable from lines 1-4 that one must surely admit that they have a top-2 forward corps in the tourney.
The USA have the best blueline of all participating nations. One could make the argument that Luke Hughes is a top-3 player at the U-20 level. His recent evolution has helped him become a more complete D-man; he'll undoubtedly be leaned on in the latter stages of games and in special teams situations. Prospect aficionados will be ready to scout Lane Hutson, popular for his excellent puck-moving skills, but also controversial for his small stature. It will be nice to see the Habs draft pick ease some concerns about his frame, as hockey develops into a more modern sport.
Like their North American rivals, the USA have an uncertain crease scenario. Kaiden Mbereko had a fine stint during the summer rendition, but I'm expecting 17-year old Trey Augustine to get the starting job. He's inexperienced, but he's shown enough at U-18 level to rely on.
2. Finland
The silver medalists in 2022, Finland are always a polarizing figure. I deem them to be 'due' for a challenge to the favourites, but in all honesty, I think they are weaker than they were in August. IIHF has the Finns ranked as the world's best hockey team, which makes FIFA's ranking of the Belgian national team seem like a downright rational decision. Nevertheless, we shall see how they perform in Halifax.
The forward corps is led by Joakim Kemell, an immensely polarizing figure. Kemell is dominant in situations like the power play, where he can unleash a dangerous one-timer and speed around the ice surface like a demon. However, he is wasteful at his worst and he often makes questionable decisions with the puck. If Finland can put him in the right environment, he'll score goals. If not, he may be a hindrance to his team. Other notable forwards include Seattle's Jani Nyman (a skillful player with an accurate shot), Ville Koivunen (a streaky, yet talented winger) and the highly inconsistent Brad Lambert, once thought of as a future first overall pick.
Defense became a lot less remarkable for Finland after they announced that projected 2024 first overall pick Aron Kiviharju would be cut for the WJC. They still have Aleksi Heimosalmi, a smooth skater who has been more confident with his shot in the late months of 2022. He is projected to man the point on the power play and in transition.
The Finns have an embarrassment of riches in the crease, notably being the only tournament participant with two NHL draftees as the goalie options. This could lead to a tandem situation between Niklas Kokko and Aku Koskenvuo; I'll tip Vancouver's Koskenvuo to garner the majority of the starts, though.
The Suomi will outwork most of their opponents, but they are lacking an elite center to allow them to reach the levels they achieved in August.
3. Switzerland
I'm a big fan of the current Swiss crop, as you can clearly see if you log onto to my Twitter page where I've been raving about defenseman Lian Bichsel. Bichsel is leading a strong and mature blueline, but the Swiss could face an impasse in the OZ, particularly considering their lack of drafted talent up front. Nevertheless, tournament settings tend to bring out the best of more defensive-minded teams, so it shouldn't be outrageous to claim that the Swiss have a legitimate shot at third place.
Attilio Biasca is an undrafted forward, going into his third WJC. That experience should pay off and he has been enjoying a strong year with the QMJHL Halifax Mooseheads. Biasca was Switzerland's best forward during the 2022 WJC. He'll be joined by a personal favourite, the speedy Louis Robin. Robin is another QMJHL forward and I expect that he can carry the burden of a top-6 spot. There is a strong sense of chemistry in this group, particularly the second line, an all-Kusnacht trio.
As already mentioned, I love Bichsel. He is strong, simple and energetic. I would expect a heavy workload for Bichsel in the vein of 25 minutes per night and in my opinion, he is one of the few players in Halifax who could handle that. I'd like to see more offensive contributions, because I believe gaudy point totals may well help him find a place on the tournament All-Star team. That's how highly I rate him. The rest of the D corps mirrors Bichsel: big and mobile. Rodwin Dionicio and Brian Zanetti are both reliable defensively, if a little passive offensively.
Goaltending is the biggest concern, like it is for many teams. Favoured starter Kevin Pasche has been poor in the USHL this season and he struggled to assert himself during his stint for the NT in August. His main challenger will be Alessio Beglieri, of the Mississauga Steelheads. Beglieri was the starter at last year's Hlinka Gretzky Cup.
I'm not expecting the Swiss to blow anybody out of the water, but I'm lower on Slovakia's hopes than most, so I believe that Switzerland will do enough to nail down third place.
4. Slovakia
Slovakia's golden generation starts now. Though number 1 overall pick Juraj Slafkovsky is currently plying his trade in the NHL and will not be permitted to join the Slovakian junior team, there is enough talent to impress in spurts. Two key figures have joined the Slovak team, as drafted players Filip Mesar and Simon Nemec are expected to offer a guaranteed impact after their D+1 seasons.
Mesar is the X-factor on offense. He has been tearing it up for OHL Kitchener, proving steady bursts of speed and skill. In a first line role, I'm expecting the Montreal prospect to lead Team Slovakia in goals. Servac Petrovsky of the Minnesota Wild has always overperformed for his country, despite his modest totals domestically. However, the true intrigue comes from Slovakia's 2023-draft eligible prospects. Dalibor Dvorsky, a likely lottery pick is the highlight. Though he can be lazy on offense, his release is among the best of all junior players. If teams take unnecessary penalties against Slovakia, Dvorsky will be shooting a lot in the bumper slot. Another 2023 player, Peter Repcik, should call upon his experience on North American ice to produce some points.
2nd overall pick Simon Nemec has been adjusting well to the AHL after an impressive performance for Slovakia in the Winter Olympics. Having Nemec run the transition game instantly makes Slovakia more dangerous. Promising 2023 prospect Maxim Strbak has a lot to play for and he's a dark horse for minute-munching roles.
August's third stringer Patrik Andrisik is expected to step into the boots of a starter. But look out for the younger Matej Marinov to step in, if things go sour for Andrisik. Marinov has been playing on North American ice all season and may be considered a higher upside option than Andrisik.
Avoiding Canada is crucial for Slovakia, but I sincerely can't expect too much. I simply don't believe in the team yet.
5. Latvia
Latvia are going to be sending one of their best junior teams in years. However, the WJC is an elite competition and the Latvians will be lucky to escape relegation. Survival is key for the Latvians, but I'm excited to see if their fresh dose of skill added on to the famous compete level will be enough for a fourth-placed finish in the group.
Unlike most overperforming minnows, Latvia won't be leaning on a singular figure to provide goals, but rather a collection of decent forwards. Sandis Vilmanis might be the most likely candidate to surprise, considering his release is excellent. Dans Locmelis has been lighting up the Swedish league, which isn't always a sign of translatable success on Canadian ice, but the UMass commit has a good track record. Martins Lavins, a favourite of mine following the summer WJC, will have a larger scoring burden on his shoulders. Lavins is a rapid skater and he seems more comfortable on the smaller ice surface than he has in previous years. This unit is defensively responsible, but outside of Locmelis and Vilmanis, there won't be much even strength offense. The Latvians must be vigilant with their special teams.
Nils Fenenko, Gustavs Ozolins and Bogdans Hodass are all returnees, each of them with big bodies and a hard shot. Dario Mackevics may be the most likely player to feed players from the point; I think he can seize the PP1 spot after the first game as he moves the puck well.
The hero in August, Bruno Bruveris, has aged out, meaning that Patriks Berzins, the backup in Edmonton, will probably start most of the games. He'll face a heavy workload, so Latvia's defense will need to be on their A-game to prevent any high-danger chances in the slot.
Despite my prediction that they'll finish last in the pool, I acknowledge that Latvia are a decent team. If they are pitted against Austria to decide relegation, I'm fully confident that Latvia will win the matchup.
KNOCKOUT PREDICTIONS
Relegation Round
Latvia def. Austria
Quarterfinals
Canada (A1) def. Slovakia (B4)
Sweden (A2) def. Switzerland (B3)
USA (B1) def. Germany (A4)
Czechia (A3) def. Finland (B2)
Semifinals
Canada def. Czechia
USA def. Sweden
Bronze Medal Game
Sweden def. Czechia
Gold Medal Game
USA def. Canada
AWARDS PREDICTIONS
MVP: Jimmy Snuggerud (USA)
Top Forward: Jimmy Snuggerud (USA)
Top Defenseman: Stanislav Svozil (CZE)
Top Goalie: Carl Lindblom (SWE)
All-Star Team:
F Connor Bedard (CAN)
F Jimmy Snuggerud (USA)
F Jiri Kulich (CZE)
D Stanislav Svozil (CZE)
D Luke Hughes (USA)
G Carl Lindblom (SWE)
CREDIT TO DOBBER, DAILYFACEOFF AND EP RINKSIDE
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