The most prestigious trophy in sports (Miguel Medina, Getty Images)
After 4 anxious years of waiting for the next installment of the FIFA World Cup, the end of the relentlessly long cycle has descended upon the world of football. Inarguably the biggest and most culturally significant of all sporting events, the World Cup is a tourney laden in history from some of the most talented athletes of all-time. The likes of Pele, Diego Maradona and Johan Cruyff have created a frankly magical feeling whenever fans ponder the chances of their respective nations on the field of dreams.
In what may very well be my longest and most comprehensive article ever, I will be predicting the entire group stage and previewing all 32 teams involved, from a variety of perspectives, including their tactical essence and an examination of the countries on a more personal basis.
This will be the most easily accessible edition ever, especially for North American fans, as the sport grows evermore in the continent. Canada, the United States and Mexico all have convincing cases to escape their admittedly difficult groups.
Feel free to skip through this expansive article in search of one of your favourite teams (Canada is in Group F for my fellow citizens of the North), or you can embark on the courageous task of reading through each and every section with the goal of becoming as knowledgeable as possible.
So, to stir the pot of excitement, let us look at all 8 pools of teams for the upcoming World Cup.
GROUP STAGE PREDICTIONS
Group A
1. Netherlands
A truly historic side on the national stage, the Netherlands will be my second team during this World Cup. After a heartbreaking exit in the qualification stages of the 2018 edition, the Dutch will come into this tournament with possibly their most talented squad since 2010, which resulted in a second place finish.
This side is led by the enigmatic Louis van Gaal in the dugout. The oft-controversial figure made headlines with his squad selection, notably leaving out players such as Sven Botman, Ryan Gravenberch and Arnaut Danjuma. Though I was personally aggrieved by those choices, van Gaal clearly subscribes to the rather modern mindset that a team should be built to suit its manager's vision.
The Netherlands are a rare side in the sense that they still haven't nailed down their preferred formation. Though the first half of van Gaal's stint was marked by a high press 4-3-3, he then adopted a 3-4-1-2, which suits the strengths of the Dutch corps. Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong and Memphis Depay all excel with wider supporting wing-backs, as it gives Holland a more multidimensional attack.
The principles of Dutch sides at a World Cup are clearly on show here. They will play attractive football, marked by an expansive style that no other association has managed to replicate.
If I were a smart man, I'd be fairly confident in betting money on Memphis Depay to battle his way into the Golden Boot race. The Netherlands are at their most dangerous when they attack vertically, using the progressive midfield trio of Steven Berghuis, Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners to feed their striker pairing. This suits Depay really well. Though the Barcelona forward isn't a lethal finisher, he gets so many looks on goal that he is bound to rattle the twine.
Perhaps the most unique strategy employed by the Dutch is their high line. Their front-foot defenders play comically far up the pitch in such a way that I have never seen, even as a fan of Arsenal FC. This assures that they will control a majority of the possession, but it also makes them quite prone to counter-attacks. For my more informed audience, think of the Netherlands as an even more extreme version of Roberto de Zerbi's Brighton: a team highly capable of peppering the opposition, but also magnanimously dependent on a high line, which often makes them vulnerable in defense.
A possible sore spot has emerged for the Netherlands as I'm typing this paragraph. Denzel Dumfries went down in agony during Internazionale's match with Atalanta. Dumfries is so crucial to van Gaal's style of play. He collects wedge passes well, is one of the most intense duel-winners out there and supports the Dutch attack with his bombing runs forward. While I do enjoy his likely replacement, Jeremie Frimpong, the Bayer Leverkusen man doesn't perform his defensive duties as heartily as Dumfries does. For a team already poor in their first phase, sacrificing an actual right-back for a winger wouldn't do the squad any good.
Despite that, I still think the Dutch will see their way out of this group. Their last group stage loss at a World Cup was in 1998; they've topped every pool since that result. The knockout stages will likely reveal to the world why the Netherlands are always the bridesmaid, never the bride.
2. Ecuador
Ecuador have been tipped as the weakest nation in Group A, a claim that sincerely baffles me. I consider the South American side to be among the most likely dark horses in the tournament, as they possess a truly well-rounded team. Under the tutelage of former Boca Juniors manager Gustavo Alfaro, Ecuador have developed into a resilient, yet offensive-minded 4-3-3. Among the younger sides in the World Cup, their overall technical skill is up there with the Brazils and Argentinas of the world.
Per StatsPerform, Ecuador's system is literally as balanced as statistically possible. They lie exactly on the x-and-y axes for median passes and median direct speed when going forward. Ecuador's midfield is crucial to the maintenance of the shape. Alan Franco, Carlos Gruezo and Moises Caicedo is possibly the most active midfield trio in the competition. The three are never stagnant and they hold the key to whether Ecuador will control possession or hit back on the counter. They commit a lot of fouls, which might be something to look out for, especially with the rather controversial 'fair play' rule, which favours the teams that pick up a fewer amount of yellow cards.
Unlike the Netherlands, Ecuador prides itself on a resolute defense. Piero Hincapie is one of the top center-back wonderkids in the world currently and he has already taken on a major role for La Tri. Not only does he sweep up well and organize the backline, but Hincapie's underrated ballplaying allows the Ecuadorians to rapidly counter on the flanks. In a mid-block, the Leverkusen defender can frustrate more talented sides, like those of Senegal and the Netherlands.
Also unlike the Dutch, Ecuador struggles with scoring. Though they aren't exactly a tough watch with pacey and technical wingers, 33 year-old striker Enner Valencia isn't the same force he was during his peak at West Ham United. His movement is a lot more static in nature, meaning that Ecuador won't penetrate the box with as much force as some of the other sides in the competition. From open play, don't expect too much to go the way of Alfaro's side. Notice how I said from open play?
Though mediocre chance creation and lackadaisical finishing can sometimes haunt this squad, they are ruthlessly effective from set pieces. Ecuador ranked first of all CONMEBOL sides in set piece goals, set piece shots, set piece xG and % of total xG from set pieces.
If they can frustrate their opponents, it wouldn't be shocking to see Ecuador nick a late winner off of a corner. In such a small sample of games, that can be enough to push them to the knockout stages. I favour Ecuador as the only team in the group to maybe squeak a result out of the game against the Netherlands.
3. Qatar
The hosts of the tournament will have to bury a lot of critics to make their way to the round of 16. Namely due to the lack of big-name talent and the sketchy human rights record of the country, most neutrals won't be rooting for the Qataris to succeed. But there is something to be said for home support. Qatar will be the nation most well equipped to play a full 90 in the unceasing heat of the Middle East. There is a reason that South Africa are the only host country in World Cup history to fail to advance from the group; hosts simply have the intangible advantage. Despite no truly game-breaking talents in the team, analysts must write them off at their own peril (and no, that isn't a joke at the expense of some high-profile journalist murders in this country).
Firstly, Qatar have an advantage that people always seem to forget about when discussing World Cup chances. Their squad will be very familiar with each other. A lot of the players are teammates for Al-Sadd, a club notable for Xavi Hernandez's previous managerial stint before his move to Barcelona. This means that building chemistry won't be as difficult a task as it will for teams with more prominent European talent. Qatar keep it simple with their tactics. When going forward, they employ a fluid 4-3-3. Without the ball, the XI resembles more of a 5-3-2 with wing-backs pinned deep in the first phase. In a tournament against heavy competition, I expect Spanish manager Felix Sanchez Bas to opt for a 3-5-2 in every match, unless serious tactical cross-examination is deemed necessary.
Frankly I haven't seen the worst of Qatar, which may be swaying my opinion on them. Every match that I've watched was during their Gold Cup run, where I was quite impressed by their stymying mid-block. During my research for this article, I did admittedly see clips of rather ineffective pressing in a high-press system. For their sake, Qatar should probably avoid any attempt to look like a better team than they actually are. Only nations filled to the brim with elite front-foot defenders should consider that strategy. Sanchez Bas' side will be more successful if they persist in the 5-3-2 off-ball system.
In attack, Qatar are slow and intricate, which you would expect from a group of players coached by a Spanish manager. Their two key players, Almoez Ali and Akram Afif, are the ones to watch, likely being utilized as the two up front. Despite identical initials, Ali and Afif are very different forwards. Afif is a passing maestro, once a favourite of Xavi during their time at champions Al-Sadd. He is typically the most advanced player for the Qataris, which is unconventional for a playmaking striker, a role usually held by players that like to occupy half-spaces between the midfield and the center-forward. Ali was Qatar's leading scorer in their WCQ group. He has a telepathic connection with his strike partner. Ali is also a strong penalty-taker, having not missed from the spot in his last 13 attempts, an impressive record.
Expect Qatar to struggle against the big boys, but I think they'll show enough heart to keep them out of the cellar.
4. Senegal
Senegal (Getty Images)
"A prophet isn't judged on their overall accuracy, but on how they deviate from the common consensus." No, that isn't a quote from Albert Einstein, but rather another absolute intellectual of modern times: me. And it's true. When people look back on my predictions in a few weeks, it won't matter than I nailed down all the group leaders, but the fact that I picked Senegal to finish last when they ended up finishing second.
Sometimes there is very little justification for a prediction against the chalk. I actually have a strong record of hitting the nail on the head with my ridiculous picks like Justin Verlander to win the Cy Young, Arsenal to finish top-3 this year and the St. Louis Blues to struggle out of the gate. Maybe this is the next in a long line of Sincere Sports moments of genius.
Reigning AFCON champs Senegal come into the tournament with high expectations. They are loaded with talent at top European clubs and with Aliou Cisse in the dugout, they have a competent and tactically flexible manager. Senegal's style is marked by an aggressive 4-3-3 formation with attacking full-backs. In possession, the Lions of Teranga build up with a 3-2-5 system, typically having Everton stalwart Idrissa Gana Gueye drop into the backline and sling passes over the top to the more central forwards. Since their wingers (Sadio Mane and Ismaila Sarr) are such proficient ball-carriers, Senegal can start attacks very directly, leading to quick counter-attacks that will pose problems for teams like Qatar and the Netherlands.
The midfield is simultaneously the biggest strength and the biggest weakness for Cisse's side. Gana Gueye, Nampalys Mendy and Cheikhou Kouyate are all rugged, positionally sound midfielders. Their narrowness allows for a higher and more aggressive press from the full-backs. As I mentioned earlier, all three of these players are comfortable at dropping into a three-man defense and starting counters with quarterback-like long balls over the top. However, none of these players are very creative in the middle of the park. They offer a solidity in shape, which is integral, but Senegal's counters fizzle out more often than not, due to the lack of difference-makers in the half-space.
Typically, Bayern Munich's Sadio Mane, once one of the best players in the world, can carry that progression burden and hide the limitations of the 4-3-3. However, during a match against Werder Bremen, Mane was dragged off with a knock. If this injury keeps the winger out for any length of time, Senegal will struggle to score against world-class competition. Maybe Sarr can chip in, but he is far less of a focal point, as evidenced by FBref's assessment that only 34% of attacks come down Sarr's flank. The Watford winger also isn't as comfortable in central areas as Mane, preferring to offer playmaking from the touchline, a la Angel di Maria.
Despite the scary possibility of an attack missing its most crucial puzzle piece, Senegal's defense will hold their own against elite forward groups. The Lions of Teranga like to let their opponents have the ball, while they settle into a mid-block. They are compact without being too passive, usually resembling a 4-4-2 in the second phase. The center-back pairing of Kalidou Koulibaly and Abdou Diallo is really quick and they can sweep up well behind (though Diallo also has a knock). Edouard Mendy, typically known for his shot-stopping prowess, plays much more like a sweeper keeper in Cisse's system, showcasing his comfort in the squad.
I don't doubt that this Senegal team would advance with a fully fit squad. However, the possible absences of Mane and Diallo cast a dark shadow of the team's fortunes. Unless Ahmadou Bamba Dieng or Boulaye Dia can have a breakout tourney, the loss of Mane will blunt a typically fluid front three.
Group B
1. England
Possibly the easiest team to write about due to the easily accessible (and often critical) media coverage, the Three Lions are one of the most polarizing figures in the whole tournament. Gareth Southgate has rightly faced criticism for his dogmatic pragmatism and he has barely survived calls for the sack. The tensions reached an all-time high when England were recently relegated to Nations League B after failing to win any matches against Italy, Germany and Hungary. Despite that, Transfermarkt still considers England as the most valuable national team in the world and they have finished in the top-4 at the last two major international events.
While all fans would be eager to see what England could manage if Southgate went gung-ho and threw his embarrassment of attacking riches onto the pitch at the same time, we can only hope for so much. England will probably field 3 at the back and aim to control games more passively.
Up front, I'm eager to see the manager's preferred lineup. Harry Kane is a given, particularly considering his impeccable form this season. The Tottenham striker is one of the best talents in this tournament. As for who Southgate will select to support Kane on the wings, I think Phil Foden and Raheem Sterling are the most likely candidates. Despite his poor form in an unfamiliar role under Graham Potter, Sterling has been England's most consistent performer in recent years and should be favoured to create chances at a high rate. The debate comes down to the RHS, where I think Foden may have the edge, despite fellow wonderkid Bukayo Saka's higher level of comfort cutting in on his left foot.
A myth that has been spread about England is that they struggle to retain possession in important games. All one must to do to rubbish that claim is to watch the Euro semifinals match against Denmark, when the Three Lions held onto the ball for long chunks of time when the Danes were in search of an equalizer. Despite the falsification of the statement, there is an issue with England's ball retention: they don't do much with it. Sure, Kalvin Phillips and Jordan Henderson can cycle the ball fairly well, but when they need an equalizer in the knockout stages, safe possession won't solve those issues. Enter Jude Bellingham. Some have called Dortmund's 19-year-old wonderkid overrated. That couldn't be further from the truth. I consider the Birmingham City graduate to be the only youngster on the planet on the same wavelength as Jamal Musiala and Pedri, two phenomenal midfield prospects. Bellingham will instantly be a breath of fresh air, as a midfielder who can link up well when ball retention is crucial, but also as somebody who can burst forward with his youthful energy and employ world-class ball-striking to make chances out of nothing. Alongside Declan Rice, the hope is that Southgate finally has the perfect combo of pragmatism and final-third incision.
Defense is also a reported area of concern. I think that's harsh. Kyle Walker, Harry Maguire and John Stones always do a good job for their national team. If Walker begins to struggle for fitness, Ben White is one of the most in-form defenders in the Premier League. If the concerns of Harry Maguire's lack of game time come to fruition, Eric Dier has been an ever-present for a side coached by Antonio Conte, currently resting 4th in the EPL table.
England are not without flaws. They are still too reliant on set pieces to provide goals and their manager is still far too safe from a neutral game state to beat elite squads. Despite that, finishing first in Group B is more than manageable for the Three Lions.
2. United States of America
Christian Pulisic and Matt Turner (Getty Images)
Oh, say, can you see; by the dawn's early light!
Yep, these guys are back. After they were sent soul-searching following a laughable loss to Trinidad and Tobago in the qualification stage for the 2018 World Cup, the USA are back on football's biggest stage. Under manager Gregg Berhalter, the United States will field the youngest side at this tournament, based on average age of the squad. While this can be detrimental due to the lack of experience (DeAndre Yedlin is the only member of the team with previous World Cup experience), it often brings out the best of a competitive bunch.
The U.S. live and die by their flank play. The expected starting wingers, Christian Pulisic and Brendan Aaronson have shown flashes of immense potential in the Premier League. They are multidimensional in the way they play: aggressive, yet controlled. Their link-up skills are very under-appreciated by the public. Full-backs Sergino Dest and Antonee "Jedi" Robinson support counter-attacks following high turnovers with their marauding sprints. Both Dest and Robinson are very sneaky and deliberate with their movement; they usually can slip by unnoticed when build-up play is occurring on the opposite flank.
Berhalter has instilled a fierce press. His most prominent critics point to his lack of adaptability from all game states. He can prepare well before a match, but if his press gets baited, Berhalter can only rely on individual brilliance from expected center-back duo Tim Ream and Walker Zimmerman to prevent sustained cycles in the first phase. In CONCACAF qualifying, the States caused the most high-danger turnovers of any other side on a per match basis, more proof of how effective their pressing scheme can be on the best of days. However, they usually lack the clinical striker to finish off moves high up the pitch.
Jesus Ferreira might be the pick of the bunch, though his skillset is suited to more of a roaming CF role. Considering Berhalter ignored Ricardo Pepi, the United States' most natural finisher, in team selection, most of the goal-scoring burden will be provided to Pulisic. Maybe Josh Sargent, currently enjoying a strong season with Norwich City or Timothy Weah, an exciting, but raw talent, can step up to the plate.
As mentioned earlier, the hardcore pressing sometimes leaves the USA vulnerable in their own final third, especially off of goal kicks, when Dest or Robinson haven't settled in to the high-line yet. Thus, this squad will likely concede a lot, even with Arsenal keeper Matt Turner likely manning the pipes.
The States probably have more pure talent than anybody in this group bar England (I still haven't mentioned Gio Reyna or Yunus Musah yet), but barring a superhuman performance from the hybrid shield-anchor CDM Tyler Adams, they'll allow too many chances to fight for anything more than a round of 16 berth.
3. Iran
Team Melli has a long, if unsuccessful history at the World Cup. However, under veteran manager Carlos Queiroz, Iran can be the surprise team of the tournament. Queiroz has only been in charge or the Iranian NT for two matches, after Dragan Skocic was dismissed in September. Thus, Iran must quickly discover their preferred tactics for the big tourney to avoid a sense of minimal preparation on the biggest possible stage.
If I were to guess how Iran will line up, I would assume that Queiroz would arrange his squad in a defensively sound 4-3-3. A focus on the grittier side of the game has been an obvious quality of previous Iranian sides (the nation only conceded two at the 2018 edition). When the team presses high, they concentrate the middle of the pitch, thus funneling attacks out wide, which forces chance creation from the wings and limits the effectiveness of inverted full-backs. Without the ball, the CDM (likely Saeid Ezatolahi) drops deeper and allows his midfield partners to man-mark the Raumdeuters of the opposing team.
Much like the US, Queiroz's side press intensely and hope for mistakes in the final third. Unlike the States, Team Melli has a true chance converter in Mehdi Taremi of Porto, one of the most underrated players in world football. Since Iran lack the top quality European talent typically expected of a stable national team, they rely more on other factors, such as their decision-making with the ball. As you could guess of a club coached by an ex-Real Madrid manager, Iran typically play very intelligently, only triggering counter attacks when the off-ball movement satisfies the coach's demands. Their directness favours them for a possible surprise result. When Iran decide to hit back on the counter, their pure pace and ease in transition can be overwhelming for less capable center-back partnerships. England, in particular, will have to be weary.
Under Queiroz, they've begun to show hints of complex maneuvers in the front three, notably hitting cross-field passes to stretch the defense and elaborate triangles in the box, a tactic that is very difficult to implement. A possible injury to leading scorer and principal creative outlet Sardar Azmoun may stop Iran from being overly elaborate with the ball, but you never know.
A worrisome stat is that Iran have never come from behind to win a match under their current manager (courtesy of the Athletic). A staple of many 4-3-3 sides is that there isn't much room for tactical adaptation. While a solid mid-block and defensive base can look good against lesser competition in Asian qualifiers, this is the World Cup. No playing around anymore. Group B is weak enough for the country to advance, but my expectation is that they will come up just short.
4. Wales
Gareth Bale (Getty Images)
Since the fiasco around Ryan Giggs' appointment as Wales boss died down, the Dragons have only improved. With the legendary Gareth Bale refreshed after a successful stint for MLS champions LAFC, it would be hard to debunk any suggestions that the Dragons possess the Premier League talent to show some heart in Group B.
Wales are simply not expected to be in this situation. Their star men, Aaron Ramsey and Bale are shadows of their former selves. Ex-Euros hero Joe Allen is out injured. Goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey has started two club matches since the New Year. This group of misfits has the benefit of a whole country behind them.
While Robert Page is evidently a decent manager, individual brilliance is the most crucial factor here. Whether it be a 3-4-3 or a 4-4-2, Wales will frustrate whomever they face. Their counter-attacking style is a key trait of their recent results in the Nations League. Sound familiar? Yeah, the US and Iran both play this way. Having quick breaks down the flanks on both sides of the pitch in a match will be a sight to behold. Therefore, it is absolutely integral that Wales are the most ruthless of the counter-attacking nations. Luckily with Bale and signature speedster Dan James, that might not be an unrealistic expectation. In Kieffer Moore, they have a towering figure in the vein of the primitive number 9s of generations gone who can latch on to just about any cross or through ball. Page's decisions for the starting forwards will be interesting. He could take a variety of paths, like Bale-Moore-James, Bale-Moore-Wilson, or even James-Bale-Johnson. All of these trios possess pace and dribbling ability.
The midfield usually opts for directness over long passing sequences, meaning Wales can advance the ball between phases more efficiently than other national teams. The team averaged just 48.1% possession in the qualification stage, illustrating their penchant to get the ball upfield as rapidly as possible.
The defensive issues with Page's system are why I'm rather skeptical that they can advance from this group. I personally don't like either the 3-4-3 or 4-4-2, especially against world-class technical sides, because the CMs are far too isolated. Wales' personnel doesn't help. Even at his best at Arsenal, Aaron Ramsey was more of a build-up specialist than a direct counter-presser. If Joe Allen isn't there to provide the Swansea staple of ball retention and vertical passing, former Manchester United youngster Dylan Levitt could be thrown to the fire. The wing-back system usually baits decoy runners down the flanks and opens up all the half-spaces in the central areas. Teams will dictate the pace of play against Wales, which already sets them at a disadvantage.
Wales certainly aren't hopeless. But their tactics go against my understanding of the modern game and they are far too reliant on Bale brilliance to go through. Maybe he'll fire home an iconic free-kick goal to send the supporters into raptures, but Wales may very well be the weakest team I've written about so far.
Group C
1. Argentina
I'd be a fool to bet against the 35-game unbeaten streak of Lionel Scaloni's Argentina. While evidently something will come up, they look like the most unstoppable of all national teams. Led by the greatest player of all time, La Albiceleste are among the betting favourites for the whole tourney.
When you have such a deep collection of talent, simplistic tactics can be excused. Argentina will keep it a simple, using either a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, depending on the stylistic play of their group opponents.
Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martinez is crucial to Argentina's mixed build-up play. His roots at Arsenal are still clearly ever-present when you watch his distribution. He can play the ball short to bait the press, but he can also go long to hit back in transition. Their backline is very comfortable in possession, whether it be Cristian Romero, Nicolas Otamendi or Lisandro Martinez patrolling the edge of the box. Each of those players can dribble and hit looping passes into midfield at an above-average rate when compared to central defenders at the top level. This patient approach has helped Scaloni install a rather intricate build-up system.
In midfield, Argentina take up a rare approach without the ball. Though the 4-4-2 formation is used against possession by most 4-3-3 sides, Argentina don't press nearly as much as the elite intricate teams of our time. Usually I would frown on relying upon two central midfielders to defend the middle third, but Rodrigo de Paul and Guido Rodriguez are emphatic enough to assure that the backline can still settle into a mid-block. This settled play also lets Lionel Messi play as a second striker, thus not wearing him out against direct teams and giving Argentina a creative outlet that can complicate the basic aspects of defending for two-man defenses.
Let's talk about de Paul for a moment. His mediocre form at club level for Atletico Madrid is perplexing, but he always reaches a different level for his NT. The constant memes of his protective nature of Messi are admittedly funny, but he is so much more than a bodyguard. Outside of Messi, he was Argentina's most progressive player in the qualification matches. Not only can he man-mark anybody hoping to prevent Messi from collecting the ball from deep pockets of space, he can intercept well in a mid-block. His presence is utterly crucial for this squad.
It's hard to nitpick Argentina. In Lautaro Martinez and Messi, they have a chance creation hack. Their defensive record has been almost spotless. My only worry might be the right-back position. I like Juan Foyth, but his strengths (positional versatility, aggressiveness in the tackle) don't suit him as well for Argentina as they do for Villarreal. This likely forces Nahuel Molina into a starting spot, despite a rather forgettable stint in Spain so far. I wonder if a possible matchup with technical LHS players like Nicola Zalewski, Hirving Lozano and others might pose a problem for Molina in Argentina's high line.
In the meantime, I'm going to play it safe and pick the most in-form country to reach top spot in Group C.
2. Saudi Arabia
Maybe my bravest call of all, nobody is selecting Saudi Arabia to advance to the round of 16. They are the second lowest ranked team in the World Cup (ahead of only Ghana). But they play in the way that I think football should be played. So perhaps my bias is showing here, but I just love what Saudi Arabia have built.
The 4-5-1 is the most underrated formation in world football. It's incredibly versatile, yet the way players transition between a mid-block and an elaborate attacking system is perfect. It relies heavily upon high energy wide midfielders to preserve the width on each flank, while the three central midfielders can rotate into shielding positions and into more advanced half-spaces that have been opened up by the baiting runs from the flexible center-forward.
Manager Herve Renard is the mirror image of me if I was a leading tactician. The overlapping full-backs offer crucial support in the build-up phase. Tactically flexible midfielders like Mohamed Kanoo and Salman Al-Faraj alternate between a 4-5-1 and a 4-2-3-1. Generally, I think touchline wingers are more effective, but in a narrow role, Saudi Arabia's flank players are much more capable of supporting the striker, especially Salem Al-Dawsari who provides genuine quality in the LM role.
Firas Al-Buraikan funnels all of the build-up play to a more central position. Intricate triangles in wide areas are a staple of Renard's style, but the ball usually ends up on the striker's foot. The patience with which they retain the ball is usually succeeded by clever and intricate upfield movement. They have the stats to back up the efficiency of their slow style, as they rank first of all AFCON sides for big chance conversion %, a piece of data that reflects well on Al-Buraikan.
In defense, the Green Falcons don't concede many chances in the box. Their dominance within 6-yards is a large part of the reason for the squad's presence in this tourney. They are hardly adept at pressing forwards into low-danger areas of the pitch. But their goalkeeper, Mohammed Al Owais, is a good shot-stopper. Their strong aerial presence in the box sometimes scares other strikers into wastefulness.
The reason why I'm picking Saudi Arabia over perennial round of 16 merchants Mexico and a talented Poland side is because of their vulnerabilities, but also the untapped potential of the Saudis. Whatever we've see from Renard's squad is their worst. Once the center-backs learn to slide across to defend the switch, this nation can reach a new level. I'm putting my chips in for them to make it happen next week.
3. Mexico
Hirivng Lozano (Getty Images)
Well known for their prowess in the group stages, Mexico could come up just short with one of their weakest squads in recent memory. Football fans have become accustomed to Mexico entering big tournaments in sketchy form before immediately forgetting about all their flaws. They are undoubtedly a top nation in the clutch. But this year's CONCACAF qualifying was particularly nervy. Former stars Raul Jimenez and Jesus Corona are both nursing injuries, notable exclusions including Diego Lainez and Santiago Gimenez and an out-of-favour manager make this a truly tough task.
Coach Tata Martino sets El Tri in a simple 4-3-3, marked by inverted wingers, a deep-lying playmaker and overlapping full-backs. Mexico dominate possession and like playing in the final third. Their inverting wingers are crucial to this high share of field tilt, as their position in narrow areas allows FBs to create an advantage in the build-up. The deep-lying playmaker role will likely be occupied by Edson Alvarez of Ajax. Mexico's vertical midfield provides half-spaces for Alvarez to occupy. He drops very deep into those areas to receive short passes from the center-backs.
A traditional North American-style of football is very winger-reliant and Mexico subscribe to that philosophy. This is why the injury to "Tecatito" Corona is so devastating. The Sevilla wide player is usually at the forefront of Mexico's chance creation, as he is the one of the more efficient ball-carriers in the world at his position. Expect Mexico to look for as many 1v1s as possible, even if Roberto Alvarado is in Tecatito's usual role. The full-backs (Jorge Sanchez and Jesus Gallardo) will go long if possible.
The World Cup means the return of Guillermo Ochoa, the seemingly invisible man. A goalkeeper for CF America, Ochoa always spawns out of nowhere to provide heroics between the pipes for his country. Arguably the most effective keeper in CONCACAF qualifying, Ochoa is very underrated for his consistent match-winning ability. As a whole, fans rarely consider goalkeepers as their squad's most crucial aspects, but Ochoa has a legitimate claim to that title for El Tri.
My skepticism surrounding Mexico stems from a few different factors. Under Tata, the squad has developed a weird allergy to evolution. The game is moving in a different direction, but the oldest North American side at the tourney are scared of facing that truth. Their stagnant 4-3-3 doesn't offer for many goal-scoring opportunities and the injury to Raul Jimenez only compounds those worries. If Mexico's final third build-up play remains tedious, they don't have anybody apart from tricky winger Hirving Lozano to deliver a moment of magic in a tight match.
4. Poland
Led by Barcelona star Robert Lewandowski, there is no denying the game-breaking ability of "Lewa" to lift them to a shock result. However, as a whole squad, I'm bearish on the White and Red's chances. The overwhelming focus on funneling attacks through their striker leaves them fairly predictable going forward. His build-up play isn't good enough to be overly reliant on a single center-forward. Still a star I must add, but I'd rather focus my final third play through somebody creative like Lionel Messi, who ironically, the Polish defense will have to stop.
The Poland front line doesn't need a world-class midfield to control possession, as players like Piotr Zielinski and Arek Milik can hit back in transition as they are creative enough to feed Lewandowski in the box. As much as I'm not a fan of the squad balance, the firepower in the forward line should be enough to keep the Poles in most matches.
The team generally averages less than 50% possession, and they attack off of counter-presses in duel-winning situations. They also spam crosses into the box, and as you would expect from a team led by Lewandowski, they typically create high-danger chances from those long passes from the wing-backs. I don't use the phrase 'spam crosses' lightly. They scored the most goals off of crosses of any UEFA nation, but they also sometimes got stuck into clustered attacks from either flank, a rather predictable method of attack. I'd like to see Zielinski or Milik bait out opposing CBs in a 3-2-5 counter to open up through balls for Lewandowski, but that might be too optimistic, especially considering their manager Czeslaw Michniewicz has only been in charge for 7 competitive games.
Matty Cash is arguably Poland's second most important player. His inclusion in the squad will completely dictate Michniewicz's tactics. With a crossing maestro like the Villa star, Poland typically play in a more traditional 4-2-3-1 with a staggered double pivot and a second striker in the CAM hole.
The reactive style of Poland's tactics leaves them vulnerable to opposition momentum and basically any opposing midfielder with pausa. Their forwards aren't dynamic enough in the press, especially centrally where they are often too conservative against strikers. They can certainly score, but their lack of ball retention ability in the second phase is likely to hurt them, especially as the squad has much more attacking depth than defensive depth.
Group D
1. France
Despite a midfield that has been wrecked by injuries and poor form among other factors, France are far too stacked at center-back and in the final third to have any true struggles. If anything, the one constituent that could halt the rampant nature of Didier Deschamps' squad is the curse of champions. No European reigning winners have advanced to the round of 16 since 1994. It's one of those shocking stats that doesn't really make sense on the surface, but it exists. Despite the prevalence of that malediction, I'm not nearly courageous enough to predict the continuation of that streak.
In a weird way, les Bleus always package together tumultuous off-field issues and injury crises to still create an excellent roster. Deschamps made headlines with the admission that he was returning to the 4-2-3-1 for Qatar, a change from his recent exploits with a 3-4-1-2. The 4-2-3-1 brought France success at the last edition of the tournament, but personnel has adapted since then (for one, there won't be Paul Pogba and N'Golo Kante in the double pivot). If I were to guess France will likely have a similar tactical idea to Poland: three strikers in a front four, likely Kylian Mbappe on the left, Karim Benzema in the advanced CF role and Antoine Griezmann as the roaming attacking 10. Recent news has emerged that Christopher Nkunku, one of France's more versatile attacking options, has been injured in training, so the oft-frustrating Ousmane Dembele will probably be the outlet on the right.
The benefit of having practiced the wing-back system is that Deschamps can adapt against more aggressive teams that like to build-up play on the flanks. With the right selection on the wings, possibly Kingsley Coman, who is used to the back five under Julian Nagelsmann, can drop deeper to pin wingers in the midfield.
The French pressing scheme is very unique. Griezmann has a lot of defensive responsibility in his position, much more than most CAMs in a 4-2-3-1. Up top, Benzema and Mbappe break up build-up play in the third phase by blocking pathways from the goalkeeper to the full-backs. This structure is beautiful for football purists, but France's scheme going forward is much more messy.
Rather reliant on individual quality (which can be excused, due to the presence of quality individuals), most of the good comes down Mbappe's flank for les Bleus. His instant step of pace breaks down just about any high line on the international stage and Benzema's proficiency with his back to goal allows for triangle build-up with Griezmann and Mbappe. They are all such aggressive players that the 6-yard box is almost always full. Ousmane Dembele could provide a unique crossing ability for a potential Giroud substitution.
Funnily enough, France haven't scored in the first half in a competitive game since autumn of 2021, a shockingly long period of time for such a talented squad. Deschamps must hope that his team doesn't require too much tactical flexibility if they are to buck the trend of unsuccessful titleholders.
2. Tunisia
One day, I'll be right about Tunisia. I picked them as a dark horse to win AFCON. I figured they would gain automatic qualification to Qatar. They failed in both quests. Now, I have charged them with the most difficult job of all: qualifying for the round of 16 at the World Cup.
Group D is a difficult pool of squads, marked by everybody's favourite hipster pick that isn't even a hipster pick anymore in Denmark and the reigning champs. Thus, for Tunisia, to advance, they need near perfect performances in all 3 group matches. Here's the thing: I think they can prove me right.
Under Jalel Kadri, Tunisia are noted for their defense-first tactics. His appointment has jolted a nation reeling from a disappointing Africa Cup of Nations. The new manager bounce gave Tunisia quite the reality check, as Kadri's neutralizing strategies helped the Eagles of Carthage to keep 7 consecutive clean sheets. Per Opta, they didn't concede a single high-danger chance in the play-off against a Mali team containing talents like Yves Bissouma, Moussa Djenepo, Mohamed Camara and El Bilal Toure.
The defensive style can be represented by a sponge. Tunisia sit deep, content to absorb waves of pressure and compact enough to not get too stretched in the back line. Then, once they stop all the action, Tunisia hit back, led by Youssef Msakni and Seifeddine Jaziri. Their shape in a low-block is usually a very narrow 4-1-4-1, though they can also press a striker pairing in a slightly wider 4-5-1. The 4-1-4-1 neutralizes opposing front lines, while the 4-5-1 is usually more effective against teams that like to control the pace of play in midfield.
Obviously, for a team that focuses so much on preserving shape and preventing chances against, they don't spend nearly enough time on attack. Their average positions tell a whole story, as only Msakni and Jaziri take more touches beyond the half line. Thus, Kadri's squad will have to be lucky off of set pieces and hope that their mid-block can settle quickly before being exposed by long balls over the top.
Truthfully, the only team they can reasonably hope to beat is Australia, but I can't see why they are incapable of frustrating the Danes and the French. Perhaps a few draws and a tight disciplinary record would be enough to push them into the next round.
3. Denmark
A team can't be considered the most underrated team in the tournament by all analysts before they become overrated as a result. That is the phenomenon that has befallen Denmark. An excellent national team, evidently, sometimes these tactically reliant countries get far too comfortable in the conversation as the world's elite, when in actuality, a combination of factors, including limited academy development and financing, will prevent that.
I really admire what Kasper Hjulmand has done with this team. His balanced squad gives him many options to choose, including a basic 3-4-3 or a 4-3-3 double pivot. Expect Hjulmand to use both formations depending on his opposition's strengths. Let's look at the details
No matter whether it's a 4-2-3-1 or a 3-4-3 shape in a neutral game state, Denmark defend the first phase in a 5-4-1 with flat wing-backs and a fluid midfield. The wingers will drop into the midfield flanks, while the deepest lying DM will drop into the flat back-5 as a quarterback/shield center-back. This unique measure gives Denmark a high-intensity press in midfield, while also offering them personnel to defend the box and send long balls over the top on the counter. Most teams have failed to solve the question of high press or fall back around the 6-yard box. Denmark can do both effectively. They can also equally play intricate passing sequences to retain the ball or play directly from a negative game state to hit back on the counter. Denmark's tactical fluidity will be the stuff of legend one day and if Hjulmand gets a job in Europe, he will change the game at domestic level.
Their midfield of Thomas Delaney, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Christian Eriksen is very energetic and progressive. Oftentimes, Delaney and Hojbjerg fan out around Eriksen, keeping their double pivot shape to bait the press. Everything good that Denmark does comes from this trio. The full-backs typically favour playing it centrally, meaning the wingers can invert or overlap.
In the final third, Andreas Skov Olsen and Mikkel Damsgaard like to play crosses in the middle, hoping for success in aerial duels. Skov Olsen (one of my favourite players in the world right now) is a key figure in Hjulmand's transition-based waves. His speed and dribbling ability make him a world-class creative outlet in the right setting. Danish fans will have to hope that whichever striker they select up top, whether it be Martin Braithwaite, Andreas Cornelius, Jonas Wind or Kasper Dolberg to be more than an energetic runner; they must be a true aerial force. That's why I think Cornelius will get some real minutes.
I'm not sure that Denmark's tiring brand of football is well-suited for such a compact schedule. They rarely draw, which doesn't bode well for tournament football. Don't get me wrong: in a series of matched against Tunisia, Denmark would wipe the floor with the Eagles of Carthage. However, there are enough flaws here for me to pick a potentially outrageous upset.
4. Australia
The Australian squad (The Athletic)
A rather unconvincing stretch of form in the latter stages of the qualifying period hasn’t done much to inspire confidence in Graham Arnold’s squad. Their regular system tweaks often demolish any sense of momentum or consistency in squad selection.
Arnold favours a flat back-4, though sometimes he alternated his midfield structure from a pivot to a pair of deep-lying playmakers. This gives the midfield more touches and a regular passing sequence through the vertical areas of the second phase.
Former Brighton midfielder Aaron Mooy is the catalyst to the Socceroos’ forward play. Usually, an Australian counter involves build-up play with Mooy, who is often utilized in an unfamiliar pivot role, allowing for overlapping runs from the two more advanced midfielders, Jackson Irvine and Ajdin Hrustic.
A usual fixation on counter-attacking sides is how well the center forward can hold up the play. Since Arnold doesn’t have a true number 9 in his system, the build-up in the final third is creative, but a lack of a finishing touch often eliminates Australian pressure.
Australia’s defense is a possible issue as well. Despite the presence of 6’7 Harry Souttar, Australia press at the wrong times and sit back when they should be marking the midfielders. The Socceroos allowed the most passes per defensive action of all sides in Asian qualifying groups, emphasizing their content to fan out around the 6-yard box. But they usually get dragged out of position, leaving open cross targets and regularly getting exposed by quick through balls on the counter-attack.
Luckily, goalkeeper Mat Ryan is usually competent enough to prevent some low xG shots; the stats show that he has one of the highest post-shot xG prevented of all keepers in the Asia and Oceania region. The former Arsenal man is a veteran for the Socceroos at this point, and for such a young squad, he will have to keep a cool head if Australia have any hope of advancing.
Australia haven't won a tournament match since 2010, so picking up three points that is probably a more realistic goal for manager Graham Arnold. With young stars in the ilk of Newcastle's Garang Kuol, 2026 will probably be a better bet for the nation. Simple effort should be deemed a success for the country rated #38 in the world.
Group E
1. Spain
La Roja have always been an underrated national side. Their tactics go far beyond the basic fundamental aspects of the game. On a direct comparative scale to other NTs, Spain's press is actually lacking in structure. The midfield, in absence of Gavi, isn't quite as physical as a high press tends to be. But, under Luis Enrique, one of the best national team managers in the world, they are so efficient with their pressing. Spain are the football purists to defeat all football purists. They hold optimum distances, make plays in accurate trajectories and run behind the lines on time. Since their press is less clean-cut than most, La Roja need possession to achieve their fullest selves; that's why many analysts are against Enrique's squad.
Defense is certainly where Spain are the most vulnerable. Since they possess the ball so much, they get set in a high line and are therefore too far up the pitch to cover off any unsuspecting counter attacks. Since Alejandro Balde was excluded from the squad, there is a distinct lack of pace in the full-back areas. Jose Gaya and Dani Carvajal are both solid outlets and are strong in 1v1 situations (EDIT: Balde has replaced Gaya in the squad; a downgrade in general performance, but an important profile that the NT was lacking before). But their pace will likely let them down, especially with the possible option of two left-footed center-halves, a tactic that seems revolutionary, but in all likelihood, will utterly fail. An oft-error prone goalkeeper in Unai Simon also doesn't inspire much confidence. The Athletic Bilbao shot-stopper can bait the press well and distribute to all areas of the field, but he's shown to be more than capable of a couple howlers every now and then.
As all the great pillars of Spanish football have been known for, Enrique's midfield is top-class. They may have a messy press, but they trap inverted wingers and bait balls into the half-spaces like you wouldn't believe. It's truly fascinating to watch Enrique operate on the sidelines, as he waves his arms like a maniac. Spain dominate possession so often, because of their base in midfield. Most teams can't exploit spaces centrally, since players like Rodri and Pedri are so positionally aware. Spain are there for the taking on the flanks, but they really force narrow build-up play with their fluid front three and a deadly combination of pressing mechanics and feints in the second phase. I have never watched a team get a numerical advantage on Spain past the opposing final third, a testament to how strong they are in reversing scenarios.
Their front three doesn't look deadly on the surface, but they are accomplished in the art of forcing errors. Alvaro Morata is far from the most clinical striker, but he has constructed a career off of his brilliant off-ball movement and baiting runs. Ferran Torres is actually Spain's most ruthless finisher, but he usually has to decide whether to invert into central areas or stay on the right flank, a region typically less well-defended against Spain's central approach. Whomever gets the call on the wings should be capable of operating on the touchline effectively. Those areas are typically untouched by the low-blocks that opponents like to play against the Spaniards.
As you would expect from a team full of Spanish players, la pausa oozes through this squad. They are very consistent and penetrative with their passes, which should lead to some entertaining games. However, unless Morata suddenly becomes a clinical finisher, they won't blow anybody out of the water.
2. Germany
Karim Adeyemi (Getty Images)
A new era begins for Die Mannschaft, after the exit of longtime manager Joachim Low was succeeded by an ambitious appointment; Hansi Flick, the architect of one of the most dominant Bayern Munich teams in recent history, was brought in to steer the ship after embarrassing performances at the last World Cup.
A switch to 4-2-3-1 offers a numerical advantage in the third phase. Unfortunately, Germany lack 1v1 threats on the wing, a typical aspect of the most fluid Bayern systems. Their most proficient threats in the final third are central attacking midfielders that struggle to expose the flanks, part of the reason why I favour Spain to neutralize Germany’s high-skill attack. The area that Germany tends to target is just in front of the box, between the lines of zone 14.
The triangles are a mirroring aspect of both Bayern Munich and the German NT. The complex three-pronged build-up is so unpredictable that Germany's central focus can serve as an advantage. Unless Youssoufa Moukoko gains Hansi Flick's trust instantly, Germany will field a midfielder/winger in the number 9 spot, allowing for deeper triangles in the lines. The pace and technical ability in the front 4 can go toe-to-toe with any defensive unit in the tournament. The worry is evidently how well they can play on the touchline, but it's entirely possible that the team can just overload runners into spaces behind and between the opposing CBs.
Flick's preferred double pivot is the incredibly creative pairing of Joshua Kimmich and Ilkay Gundogan. Gundogan is the perfect Flick player: a press-resistant, attack-minded maestro with line-breaking capabilities. His partner is Kimmich, who was at his best under Flick, known for being comfortable in close proximity to Gundogan, allowing for even more central dominance. They'll dictate the German machine, whether it be Kimmich at right-back or together in a CM duo.
Germany typically average around 60% possession with those two patrolling the middle of the park, though the most frightening aspect is how much they do with the ball. Unlike Spain, they are not patient with their ball usage. Germany are adept at pushing forward into gaps and half-spaces at any possible opportunity. The issue, as we saw with Germany's recent unconvincing friendly against Oman, is that teams like to settle into low blocks to dispel the superiority at the edge of the box and force Die Mannschaft to throw runners inside. In that case, expect Jonas Hofmann of Monchengladbach to play a role. He's probably the truest winger profile in Flick's squad and his cut-backs should help against a team like Costa Rica that might be happy to sit back.
Germany tend to struggle to defend crosses, an attacking method that Luis Enrique's Spain tend to utilize. Center-backs Antonio Rudiger and Niklas Sule are quick and physical enough to play in a high-line, but David Raum and Thilo Kehrer on the flanks aren't natural fits in those areas of the pitch and could wind up being a weakness of Die Mannschaft. Nevertheless, Flick's Germany should have enough attacking quality to advance to the knockout stage.
3. Costa Rica
Costa Rica (The Athletic)
Sometimes, experience serves a purpose in these long and grinding tourneys. Luckily for Los Ticos, they have veteran presence in spades: former Arsenal man Joel Campbell, their longest tenured player Celso Borges, ex-Fulham star Bryan Ruiz and Paris Saint-Germain shot-stopper Keylor Navas. It looked like Costa Rica were in trouble when they managed just 6 points from their opening 7 matches in CONCACAF qualifying. But they then rattled off a 7-game undefeated streak, containing brilliant wins against the United States and Canada, allowing for a chance to play for their World Cup chances. In a tightly-contested game against play-off winners New Zealand, Campbell struck first and Navas held firm the rest of the way to seal participation in Qatar.
Navas is the undoubted star of the squad. No longer one of the best GKs in the world at club level, Navas always puts forth heroic performances between the pipes for his country. In a sample size of just three matches, Navas gives his team to secure a draw at the very least, an immensely useful quality.
Costa Rica are renown for their use of a low-block, as their possession stats rarely exceed 40%. In a group with sides like Germany and Spain, don't expect manager Luis Suarez (not that one!) to change his tactics. A 5-4-1 is the most likely formation, wide enough to limit chaotic, unpredictable passes into the box. Of all CONCACAF sides, the country had the best mark in the competition with just 0.9 xG per shot conceded, a signal of their dominance in the box and their acceptance that opposing teams will retain the ball for long stretches between the lines.
Costa Rica's best chance for a result will be if they can keep a clean-sheet, but they also shouldn't be discounted as a strong counter-attacking side. Their attack speed of 1.7 m/s is quite impressive. They obviously won't commit too many bodies forward in fear of surrendering possession and having to defend in transition, a much more difficult prospect for a team that favours positional stability and static defending. Their center-backs will probably launch long passes over the top, which could threaten high-lines.
Like most sides of this nature, their pressing scheme isn't very proactive. That isn't to say that they allow for openness in midfield areas. They react to goal kicks quickly and prevent breakdowns in communication in the second phase. It's important for Los Ticos to avoid going behind early, when the negative game state affects the efficiency of their pressures.
It's important to acknowledge that teams of this defensive nature often thrive in tournament football, a major reason why I tipped Costa Rica to beat a very talented Japan squad for third in Group E. Fluid attacking sides with experienced defensive pedigree (like Costa Rica's team in 2014) excel in group-stage ball. Their lack of a sudden burst of pace up front is what is holding me back from picking them to upset either Spain or Germany, but third place is certainly in reach for Suarez's group.
4. Japan
Everybody's favourite World Cup dark horses, it's hard to not like the team that Hajime Moriyasu has assembled. Chock-full of players from Europe's top 5 leagues, Japan's attack is so skillful and quick. Their defense, led by Arsenal stalwart Takehiro Tomiyasu, has generally been quite effective in AFC qualifying. The midfield is front-footed, young and athletic. It's hard to not like the team's chances at an upset. But they were unfortunately placed in a very tough group and pre-tournament darlings rarely exceed expectations (*cough* Turkey *cough*).
That's not to say they don't possess a fascinating team that very well could surprise me. The 4-2-3-1 system suits Japan's squad depth very well, so it's the formation I expect them to continue with in Qatar. Japan's attacking options rival many of the higher-ranked sides in the competition. While I predict Takefusa Kubo-Daizen Maeda-Junya Ito, they could equally opt for a Kaoru Mitoma-Ayase Ueda-Takumi Minamino front line. The possibilities are endless.
Team selection will be a real focus before and after Japan's matches. The connections and overlaps on the flanks are crucial to Japan's style, so expect to see inverting full-backs and triangles on the touchline. Like Germany, the Samurai Blue prefer to keep possession inside their opposition's half, illustrating their sense of purpose.
The midfield that I expect will consist of Wataru Endo and Hidemasa Morita in the double pivot with Daichi Kamada in a hybrid 10/second striker role. Kamada's versatility and flexibility in attack allows Japan to drop into a 4-4-2 against high possession sides with the Frankfurt star up front with Maeda, as the full-backs drop deeper into a flat back 4. This 4-4-2 is so effective in a high-pressure environment. With the wingers dropping into midfield, Japan hold superiority in the second phase and on the flanks, allowing them to force high turnovers and counter through the middle of the pitch. This was particularly effective in a recent friendly against the USA, as Japan kept picking off the American midfield in their own third and controlling possession in the way they prefer.
The main reason that Japan can demolish my prediction is their flank play. As I mentioned earlier in my Group E preview, Spain and Germany are both prone to crosses, due to a lack of pace in the full-back areas. Moriyasu's team differs in that sense. The full-backs play high up the pitch, occupying separate lanes to the creative wingers, often capable of acting as attacking midfielders in a narrow 4-2-2-2. The full-backs have so much freedom as a result of the narrow center-backs. Takehiro Tomiyasu, a right-back by trade, excels as a LCB, unlocking disorganized defenses with his quick line-breaking passes and his outstanding positional sense.
Generally, Japan struggles with filling the net, but that is mainly a result of poor finishing. Maybe Moriyasu will play a lot like Germany, using a CAM or winger in the number 9 slot, but Daizen Maeda is still the most likely option. If the Celtic forward continues to underperform his xG, advancing will be a monumental task, even if I do appreciate the future potential of this nation.
Group F
1. Croatia
The Croatian squad (Getty Images)
Not exactly a tactically complex side, Croatia are nevertheless very effective, due to their brilliant talent scouting and the remnants of a past golden generation. One of a handful of teams to have persisted with their manager from the 2018 edition, Croatia are welcoming in some underrated youngsters to the fold, giving them a presumably effective combination of age and youth.
The biggest transformation undertaken by Zlatko Dalic has been the infusion of new blood at center-back. Dejan Lovren and Domagoj Vida are no longer the mobile, physical beasts they were during Croatia's road to the final 4 years ago. New stars Josko Gvardiol and Josip Sutalo have slotted in seamlessly, allowing for Croatia to play with a higher line and thus opening more space in midfield for masters like Luka Modric to wreak havoc. Sutalo, a player I have relentlessly praised this season, may very well be the breakout defender of the tourney. Croatia's full-backs, Celtic's Josip Juranovic and Stuttgart's Borna Sosa, like to contribute further forward, giving the Vatreni a more expansive attack.
Croatia are major proponents of the 4-3-3, though at times, they resemble a 4-1-4-1 out of possession, as Internazionale star Marcelo Brozovic shields the back line in between the lines with a great view of the half-spaces. Their wingers threaten crosses from the wide areas and are eager to get forward. Ivan Perisic, newly reborn since his stints under the wing-back savior, Antonio Conte, is a phenomenal crosser of the football. He stretches the play really well and opens space for the striker to run behind. West Ham flop Nikola Vlasic is at his best in the RW role, completing almost as many crosses as his teammate on the opposite flank. The issue that must be resolved for the nation to achieve their highest potential is to get the number 9 into threatening areas.
Striker is inarguably the weakest position on the pitch for Croatia. Andrej Kramaric, Marko Livaja, Ante Budimir and Bruno Petkovic are all fighting for the iconic jersey, but none of them have been able to truly separate one from another. Kramaric scored in the most recent friendly match against Saudi Arabia, so he's probably the favourite, but his form in the Bundesliga hasn't raised many eyebrows.
While Croatia are cursed with a lack of suitable center-forwards, they are blessed with one of the deepest and most talented midfields in world football. Though nobody is suggesting breaking up the classy trio of Mateo Kovacic-Marcelo Brozovic-Luka Modric, Croatia have more candidates than most countries to challenge for those spots. Lovro Majer and Luka Sucic are uber-talented, attack-minded midfielders, whereas Mario Pasalic and Kristijan Jakic are versatile, having plied their trade in Europe's top 5 leagues for a few years. Nobody can doubt the Vatreni's capacity to control possession in close games.
The striker issue will pose difficulties, but I expect somebody to step up to the plate eventually. This Croatia team is very good and very experienced; they should pose difficulties to any team they face.
2. Morocco
The most unfairly treated team in the world heading into this World Cup, very few analysts seem to be giving Morocco a chance in the Group of Death. An unconvincing AFCON campaign likely did little to sway those fears, but there is a lot of talent in this side. Amine Harit's horrific leg injury dulls the attack slightly, but it could serve as motivation for a squad hoping to advance to the knockout stages for just the second time in the nation's history.
No longer led by the controversial Vahid Halilhodzic, the appointment of new manager Walid Regragui has inspired the return of Chelsea winger Hakim Ziyech into the fold. In a 4-3-3 with inverting wingers, Ziyech should excel in a system somewhat similar to Erik ten Hag's formation during the Moroccan's best years at Ajax.
Similarly to group rivals Croatia, the Atlas Lions drop into a wide 4-1-4-1 without the ball. They mix high pressing and a mid-block well, challenging passes at the right times in a more proactive manner to the more defensive sides in the World Cup. In theory, their midfield should be well-organized and eager in the tackle. However, in practice, the three-man midfield is far too wide and leaky, notably vulnerable to line-breaking passes on the counter. Against teams like Croatia and Belgium, armed with a new generation of ball-playing defenders, Morocco could very well cede control too easily. Maybe this is the time for Regragui's boys to figure it out.
The full-backs are the true stars of this team. Noussair Mazraoui has been a revelation for Bayern Munich since his free transfer from Ajax, while Achraf Hakimi's burst of pace and touch of class from either flank give Morocco a true superstar to build around. Both are superb crossers and athletic enough to hustle back in transition. During my research for this article, I have to say that the most varied tactics are those at full-back. Having a sense of security in those wide areas is an advantage that I presume will rear its head during the group stage.
Going forward, the Atlas Lions will consistently find a way to work the ball into dangerous situations. The worry with their forwards is the striker position. Youssef En-Nesyri is struggling to replicate the form that had him on Arsenal's radar a couple of years ago, Sofiane Boufal is a more natural fit on the flanks, Abde Ezzalzouli is still too raw and Abderrazak Hamdallah is hardly a titan of the footballing world. I expect the organized touchline patterns and overlapping runs from the full-backs to help provide some chance creation, but unless Regragui can magically turn En-Nesyri back into a star CF, Morocco will find it tough to fight with the big boys.
3. Belgium
Kevin De Bruyne (Getty Images)
I'm predicting that Belgium's golden generation will end with a whimper. Though Roberto Martinez has done his best to reinvigorate a side clinging to the ghosts of the past, the world's #2 team (according to FIFA) are still far too reliant on Kevin De Bruyne magic to produce any stunning moments of quality going forward. Combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Romelu Lukaku and the possibility of Belgium succumbing to the World Cup's toughest group looms.
Martinez uses the box midfield, a square-shaped build-up with two double pivots and two attacking midfielders free to roam on the flanks. The double pivot typically needs to retain the ball well and recycle possession to the more advanced options. The CAMs, likely Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne, are allowed to occupy the half-spaces in interior areas, while also being persuaded to play passes from the wings. Generally, the box is very fluid, almost too liquid in nature, which is where my issue with Belgium's tactics arises. De Bruyne is far too talented to be shunted into unfamiliar positions. The Manchester City legend deserves solidity in midfield, with true wingers playing in the higher stage of the box. He should be able to play diagonals through to the attack-minded wing-backs.
Speaking of the wing-backs, it's important to acknowledge the importance of Yannick Carrasco and Thomas Meunier/Timothy Castagne in Martinez's 3-4-2-1. They stretch the back-line of their opponents, opening up many pockets of space for the box to penetrate. At times, Carrasco is the most advanced player for the Red Devils, dribbling into space behind the full-backs and cutting back for the famous late runners into the box. This is where De Bruyne is at his most dangerous for his country.
The defense has finally been refreshed, as Martinez has notably called Arthur Theate, Wout Faes and Zeno Debast in the past 12 months. Faes is the most intriguing option there. On the surface, Leicester's poor defensive record doesn't seem to reflect well upon the summer arrival. But, in actuality, the Foxes have kept clean sheets in 7 of his 10 matches, an impressive record for their bargain bin replacement for Wesley Fofana.
However, the aging side has been through severe psychological damage after suffering numerous disappointing results at major tournaments, even for such a small nation. The physical limitations are painfully evident in Martinez's three-CB system, as Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen are hardly capable of holding a high line in 2022. Despite the country's obvious talent level, it says a lot that this wouldn't be the most shocking result in the tournament.
4. Canada
If you are new to Sincere Sports, you may not have heard of a little thing called the 'reverse jinx.' I like to predict the exact opposite of what will happen in hopes of conjuring a parallel universe in which a completely different scenario truly occurs.
The likability factor of Canada is a strong motivational aspect. They must also be considered one of the rising forces of world football, a region well-known for their hockey obsession suddenly being swept up in a fever of Europe's great sport. Led by a talented corps of Jonathan David, Alphonso Davies and Stephen Eustaquio, Les Rouges are flexible tactically. Manager John Herdman's evolution has been remarkable, employing different formations on a regular basis and adapting significantly to opposing strategies on the fly.
The true mystery with Canada lies with how they will start the tourney. A tough match against Belgium beckons, but Herdman still hasn't illustrated which formation Canada will look to utilize. In the earlier stages of the CONCACAF qualifying stages, they employed a 5 at the back system, using Alistair Johnston and Richie Laryea bombing forward with their relentless work rates. However, as Canada became more comfortable against high-level opposition, Herdman reverted to a variety of tweaked back-4 formations, notably the 4-2-3-1 and box midfield.
Stylistically, Canada are evidently very mixed with their preferred ball-carrying methods. They lay in the middle of the pack for passes per defensive action and attack speed, painting a picture of a squad that can sometimes be eager to play out from the back and sometimes prefer to directly hit back on the counter. Their most impressive statistic is their xG per shot, a whopping 0.13, illustrating that Canada occupy very dangerous locations in the half-space and on the box. Alphonso Davies, brilliant in many different positions, is Canada's best player; his ability to get into those threatening areas in attack will be one of the many methods used to compete with more athletic center-back personnel.
The attacking principles are outlined with an emphasis on verticality led through the midfield, namely through Eustaquio and veteran Atiba Hutchinson. Eustaquio is a highly underrated ball-dominant CM, currently enjoying a strong season for reigning Portuguese champions, Porto. Hutchinson is a tactically versatile 39-year old, confident in dropping into the back line to allow for a higher press from the flanks. In transition, Canada are very aggressive, forcing a multitude of high turnovers and efficiently laying the ball into central areas for Lille star Jonathan David to collect.
As impressive as Canada have been in the past year, the World Cup gathers the best of the best. The greatest test will be seen in the midfield. Eustaquio and Hutchinson were crucial against teams like Jamaica and El Salvador. Can that really continue against world-class midfields like that of Belgium and Croatia? That will be the concern that must be rectified for a historic performance in Qatar.
Group G
1. Brazil
Arguably the most unstoppable team on the planet, Brazil's level of dominance is hard to quantify. They possess world-class talent at every position on the pitch, are blessed with some dynamic youngsters and have a relatively tactically complex coach in Tite. The best clubs have a dearth of attacking talents, but the most impressive aspect is their ability to form it all into a coherent unit. That's what separates the Selecao from the other contenders. A 4-2-3-1 with inverting wingers has been Brazil's most flexible lineup choice thus far.
Lucas Paqueta has been at the center of this connection, notably playing a crucial role in the 4-2-3-1. The midfielder hasn't found his best form under David Moyes at West Ham, but the former AC Milan man simply suits this Brazil team like a charm. The fact that he is so comfortable in vastly different areas on the park is a quality that can't be replaced. He can alternate in triangle setups between left wing, center attacking midfielder and central midfielder. Tite's focus on team fit is what separates him from other coaches. A lesser tactician would just hammer Vinicius Jr into that area of the pitch for every match, solely based off of his G/A numbers for Real Madrid.
In the double pivot, Manchester United duo Fred and Casemiro win the majority of their duels and are solid ball-carriers. Naturally, Fred, a more possession-based midfielder, plays in more advanced half-spaces, at least in comparison to his club colleague. This allows the former Shakhtar Donetsk star to sporadically push play forward, feeding the wide wingers. Strangely enough, Brazil play with a very wide double pivot, which is sometimes vulnerable to line-breaking passes from center-back, but they are particularly strong at defending in the second phase against marauding full-backs. Casemiro's positional sense is what makes him such a natural fit with all midfielders. He can patrol the base well in a 4-1-4-1 shape, while also providing the right qualities necessary to succeed in a CM duo.
Brazil's full-backs are expected to be a weakness. I am a fan of Danilo, but he is not an elite RB. Alex Sandro on the left is far from a reliable outlet. Tactically, these players are expected to play simultaneously narrow and deep. This restricts the opposition defense from holding the lines, thus allowing the wingers to play on the touchline and cut inside at their own free will. This is a particularly deadly stratagem, as even teams who can go man-to-man against players like Vinicius, Rodrygo, Raphinha and Gabriel Martinelli, will struggle to keep them out of the box. The full-backs are also expected to spot Neymar in the wide spaces, the areas of the park where he has always been at his most deadly. These vertical, line-breaking passes are Brazil's most effective method of breaking through low to mid-blocks.
Brazil are a high possession team, often cycling the ball in front of their opponents line. Considering their GK options are Alisson and Ederson, two great ball-playing keepers, the Selecao look to bait the press through short distribution between the high line and the keeper. They have yet to be truly exposed defensively, though that may be the team's only true concern.
No matter how sustainable Brazil's style will be during the knockout rounds in the Qatar heat, they should have more than enough to top their group.
2. Serbia
Dusa Tadic (Getty Images)
Unbeaten in their qualifying group, Serbia are the darlings of this World Cup: young, attractive style, modern, fast. Dragan Stojkovic has changed his nation's hopes in recent months.
One of the rare teams to play 3 at the back and yet still be attack-minded, Serbia's base is close to the perfect back line in 2022. The aerial prowess, ball-playing ability and positional sense that the group possesses as a unit is pretty admirable. Strahinja Pavlovic, one of Salzburg's best IDs in recent years, is a superstar in the making: comfortable progressing the ball with his left foot, while also capable of dominating his duels. Salzburg will clearly be looking to hold onto him, but he seems like the right candidate to make a big move in the summer of 2023. The flat back-5 favours a chain-like line that follows the ball in a magnetic fashion.
In attack, Serbia are very direct. They are capable of moving the ball upfield with incomparable pace. In possession, the wing-backs are crucial to this quick, 15-second or less style. Their positioning in wide areas opens angles and cut-backs for Juventus star Dusan Vlahovic to thrive. So long as Vlahovic or Aleksandr Mitrovic are fit and firing, Serbia will have no issue putting the ball in the net. Filip Kostic is also a master of dribbling into space. This tendency to make threatening charges forces full-backs to back off and overload the flanks, giving Dusan Tadic a lot of room to operate. This was clear in the recent destruction of the Bahrain NT, where Tadic made a quick impact in his link-up with Dusan Vlahovic once the center-backs backed off and forced numerical advantages against the wing-backs.
Serbia also play with the 3-4-2-1 box, similarly to Belgium. Though this is a restricting tactical ideal for players like Kevin De Bruyne, Lazio's Sergej Milinkovic-Savic thrives further up the pitch. SMS is a traditional regista, but his superior support from wing-backs allows Milinkovic-Savic to be wide open and make line-breaking passes to the striker. In the deeper double pivot will likely be Ivan Ilic, a young Manchester City academy graduate and current Hellas Verona star, as well as Nemanja Gudelj, a defensively-minded veteran. When Serbia opt to push their ball-dominant CBs up the pitch, Gudelj's experience in defense will allow him to slot in against rapid-fire counter-attacks.
Serbia are admittedly lacking in depth. If Vlahovic and Mitrovic are both struggling with injuries, the appearance of Luka Jovic would be a big drop-off in performance in the box. However, this is a talented side on the verge of a breakthrough. Qatar serves as the ideal backdrop for that possibility.
3. Switzerland
One of the more experienced sides in the competition, the Swiss are generally very competent in knockout football, notably stunning France in the Euros last year. However, this is a different squad, led by a different manager in the dugout. Sure, there are parallels, but the tactics are unique and the player roles have changed completely.
Unlike ex-boss Vladimir Petkovic's preferred 5 at the back, new coach Murat Yakin should opt for a more traditional 4-3-3. This setup sacrifices defensive width for more complex vertical spacing in the second phase and a numerical advantage in the half-spaces in the final third. That isn't to say that the Swiss aren't an elite defensive squad. La Nati were impenetrable in qualifying and their reliance on the fundamentals of box-to-box defending are very clear, even to the amateur football enjoyer. Their modern back-4 is proactive with their pressing, fluidly shifting between a mid-block to a rapidly assembled high-line. They impressed at the Euros with their counter-pressing, and since Yakin's appointment, that variety of defensive application has only increased.
Captain Granit Xhaka is an integral part of the man-on-man pressing scheme, since he has a world-class sense of his surroundings. His scanning was considered top, even at his early days for Monchengladbach. His expected pivot partner will be Chelsea' Denis Zakaraia, a similar profile. They each mirror the movement from their opponents, shifting across the field to prevent any simple passes through the lines. If a team is to get past the Swiss, they will need to whip crosses around the field to expose any minor gaps in the backline.
Xherdan Shaqiri may not be at the peak of his powers anymore, but this new system has done wonders for his underrated creative ball-carrying skills. Alongside the overlaps of Silvan Widmer, Shaqiri finds himself in positions with a great angle to view the more advanced players. Whether it be from the right flank or in a central position, the former Liverpool stalwart can create through crosses or through balls to Breel Embolo.
A lot of La Nati's fate comes down to Yann Sommer, a shot stopper who always seems to replicate heroics of titanic nature. However, Sommer has been out with a tear in his ankle ligament. He played the full 90 against Ghana in Thursday's friendly, but didn't look like his all-conquering self.
The debate from a lineup perspective comes down to Haris Seferovic v Breel Embolo for the starting striker role. Seferovic theoretically fits into a Yakin system like a charm, but he is far too wasteful to justify playing full 90s in the World Cup. Embolo's pace on the counter is arguably a more valuable asset than Seferovic's elite positional sense.
Switzerland are a strong tactical side, but it will be hard to build upon their Euros performance, particularly with a new manager at the helm.
4. Cameroon
The Cameroon squad (Getty Images)
Rigobert Song is in charge of one of the more exciting Cameroonian sides in a while. A strong run at the Africa Cup of Nations, including a series of high-scoring matches, culminated in disappointing fashion at the hands of Mohamed Salah's Egypt. Nevertheless, the process is promising. Powered by their sense of unity, which is increasingly rare in an African squad, Vincent Aboubakar is a beast at the international level. Their physical midfield, led by Napoli staple Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, could be a boon to their chances. At the back, the Indomitable Lions are boosted by Rennes wonderkid Christoper Wooh, a potential surprise star at the tourney. This is probably Cameroon's best squad of the century.
Aboubakar is the veteran leader and the nation's star man, a smart and persistent striker who can dominate in the box with his movement. Aboubakar doesn't need the ball at his feet at all times to have an impact, allowing the ball to be progressed through advanced wide areas. The issue with relying on Aboubakar is that it's going to be difficult to leave Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting on the bench, considering his mercurial form for Bayern Munich this season. Maybe Song will go 4-4-2 to fit both strikers in his system without sacrificing Karl Toko Ekambi as an inverted winger in midfield. Despite Toko Ekambi's star power, he likes to cut in to the box, dictating attacks of his own accord. This leads to an imbalanced cross map from the RHS, pushed forth by Collins Fai and Nicolas Moumi Ngamaleu. The wild card in attack is Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, a new call-up after his allegiance to France was tested. Mbeumo's initial burst of pace might be a perfect fit for the rapidly advancing wingers of Song's system or his selfishness may nullify Aboubakar's aerial presence.
Zambo Anguissa won't be as locked in as he usually is for Napoli, as Song isn't as much of a proponent for occupation of the half-spaces. But, his physicality and never-ending motor in midfield are commendable values. The nerves will be high for the typically emotional player. The decision as to his partner would be easily resolved if Song persists with the 4-3-3 (simply use both Martin Hongla and Olivier Ntcham). But, if Cameroon's backroom staff feel the need to field Aboubakar and Choupo-Moting, I would predict the more defensively sound Hongla to slot in, allowing Zambo Anguissa more freedom to roam.
Defense is the issue, a big part of the reason for the collective hope that Christopher Wooh can come good. If not, opponents will slot in behind Cameroon's full-backs and whip in crosses as often as possible. Aerial duels will be crucial to the Indomitable Lions' performance in such a tough group.
Group H
1. Portugal
Portugal in training (Getty Images)
Perhaps the most talented national team on the planet, manager Fernando Santos differs from coaches like Tite and Lionel Scaloni in the sense that he hasn't found a way to blend these top-tier ballers. An asymmetric 4-3-3 with staggered wing-backs is probably the most effective, as it has been dominant at times in practice, but not nearly consistent enough to assume that Portugal will threaten for the World Cup crown.
The full-backs have some fascinating positioning. Joao Cancelo will evidently invert into midfield, taking short passes and assisting in build-up play. On the left, Nuno Mendes of PSG will be a more stable option, pumping long balls forward and offering a bit more in the first phase than his counterpart. Strangely enough, on the opposite flanks are similar profiles. Rafael Leao is similar to Cancelo: an isolation-heavy 1v1 threat that prefers to invert to new dangerous areas in the space between the lines. Bernardo Silva, the expected RW, is more like Mendes, in the sense that he is a proponent of the fundamentals and an orchestrator in his respective phase. Leao doesn't need through balls to dominate, whereas Silva likes to collect from the deepest member of the midfield and then carry the ball forward. This give Portugal a very expansive build-up, led by a second striker to offer an attacking outlet to allow Cristiano Ronaldo to stay in his preferred poacher role. Their verticality can force the opposing block to laterally shift, allowing more space for deep balls across the space behind the full-backs; the full-backs then force passes into central areas, explaining Ronaldo's dominant goal record for his country.
As lethal a finisher Ronaldo is at his best, his lack of tactical flexibility is one of Portugal's biggest weaknesses. Santos can't earmark a man-to-man pressing scheme, as it will always leave a CB prone to begin build-up play. As strange as it sounds, there may be something to be said for bringing CR7 off the bench. Joao Felix, in strong form for Atletico Madrid, is the more tactically flexible of the two and would provide a higher-pressing forward against possession. Since Diogo Jota will miss the World Cup through injury, it will be intriguing to see how Santos rotates his striker position, if he does at all.
Interestingly, goalkeeper Diogo Costa might be the team's most important player. A brilliant penalty-stopper, Costa's distribution to the wings is so solid, allowing for higher possession statistics. He could be the breakout stud for Santos' squad.
A preference for conservative play has always hindered the potential of the Selecao. However, sometimes defensive play is advantageous in tournament play. Santos will have to strike the right balance between cautiousness and full-blown attack.
2. Uruguay
Newly reborn after the sacking of legendary manager Oscar Tabarez, Uruguay are one of the most impressive national teams based off their country's population size. Laden with attacking midfielders, new manager Diego Alonso has settled into a 4-2-2-2 that settles deep and then hits back with rapid, direct counters.
In the second phase, their false wingers stretch play with bombing runs in all areas, attacking the touchline at will, while also inverting as they see fit. Their superior movement offers an outlet for the center-backs to find with long balls over the top. Upon ball retention, the wingers cut in to form triangles with the full-backs and set up third-man runs from energetic workhorses like Federico Valverde.
Uruguay can bait the press well, notably setting up in a pivot when their goalkeeper gets pressured to go long. La Celeste make a diamond shape to give Alonso options in horizontal build-up for every single phase. A trademark tactic of this quick counter is the presence of a three-man back line. Typically, the deepest lying CM will drop back (often Lucas Torreira) to urge the full-backs to get forward into a 3-2-5 system with the ball.
Valverde is the star man for this team now. A box-to-box specialist, Valverde is often a the center of Uruguay's triangles, illustrating his strong assist numbers for his country. His energy level is the catalyst for Uruguay's quick transitions between attack and defense. Accompanied by Torreira and Rodrigo Bentancur, Alonso puts a lot of faith in his midfield. They are the unceasing machine that make the nation so hard to beat. Bentancur's awareness allows him to break up long passing sequences before the trouble breaks out in the final third. It's worth noting, for the sake of fair play rules, that Uruguay do get booked regularly, so they must be more vigilant to not haul down players unnecessarily.
Up front, Uruguay are blessed with some world class penalty-box forwards, again putting responsibility on the shoulders of the midfield to provide adequate service for the likes of Luis Suarez, Darwin Nunes and Edinson Cavani. The full-backs will take any opportunity to cross, as all these players are dominant in the air and ruthless finishers. Darwin is the most intriguing player at this tournament. A thoroughbred chaos merchant, everything seems to happen at once when the Liverpool striker hits the pitch. Being shoved into wide areas seems to do him good, as he can use his blistering pace and his strength to barge down doors in the opposition's half. This opens up more room for Barcelona legend Suarez. It also sometimes triggers set-pieces, a method that Uruguay often use to their advantage.
While La Celeste are lacking in polish, there is no denying their talent, something that I expect will push them into the knockout stages.
3. Ghana
The lowest-ranked team in the tournament, the Black Stars have dropped in the FIFA rankings by 15 places since 2020. A lot of this has to do with their poor performance at AFCON, as Ghana dropped out during the group stage for the first time in 15 years.
Under coach Otto Addo, Ghana have taken up an intriguing possession-based style. Their new style allowed them to beat Nigeria in qualification for Qatar. Ghana's ball progression stems from dropping a midfielder into a back 3 (much like Uruguay) and allowing the full-backs to push forward into the wide overlap lines to break the lines. Daniel Amartey of Leicester City can carry the ball out from the back, forming a 3-3-4 formation made famous by the Barcelona teams of the early 2010s. Evidently, the personnel here isn't quite comparable to Pep-era Barca, but the tactic is effective nonetheless. The Ayew brothers (Jordan and Andre) like to vacate their role up front to drop into midfield and offer a numerical advantage in the second phase.
Against possession-based sides, Ghana defend in a 4-1-4-1, with Idrissu Baba occupying the CDM role. Narrowly compact, their wingers leave the flanks void, conceding a lot of space to opposing wingers and full-backs. Expect teams to cross the ball often against Ghana. The Black Stars are not chock-full of defensive-based side players. This makes them vulnerable to teams like Portugal and South Korea, who have players like Leao and Son.
Up front, Ghana have struggled to score, though that isn't to say they are lacking in offensive weapons. The versatile Mohamed Kudus doesn't shy away from tackles and he has been developing into a more effective player in the final third. He is far more two-footed than he has been in prior seasons. Athletic Club's longstanding ironman, Inaki Williams, will give Ghana quick option up front, able to pursue the ball and cut through the opposing CBs. Kamaldeen Sulemana is a strong 1v1 winger with a very good burst of pace. Despite the obvious talent up front, Ghana do struggle to score goals.
Ghana will be boosted by newly allied Tariq Lamptey and Mohamed Salisu, but I wouldn't expect much more than a bit of spirit.
4. South Korea
Son Heung-Min (Getty Images)
It's hard to discount any team with Heung-Min Son leading the line, part of the reason why South Korea are expected to be competitive in Qatar. The high-possession style of Paulo Bento's club lends itself well to Son and his talents. One of the major concerns of Korea's style is that it is far too meticulous and that they don't do nearly enough damage when they have the ball.
Set up in a 4-2-3-1, Korea share a similar style to Uruguay and Ghana in the sense that their quarterback-like midfielder drops into a three-man back line to push play forward. Instead of hoofing it to the flanks, Son is the main target in the fluid number role to collect the ball and run through the second and third phases. The 4+2 build-up cedes control in midfield, but makes them very press-resistant, especially to teams that push in a striker pairing. This pattern is very repetitive, cycling play to Son, who then finds Hwang Hee-Chan on the LW to push play into central areas.
Out of possession, a simple 3-4-3 sets up to stop any significant flank play. Since their system is so heavily possession-based, it's safe to say that Bento subscribes to the 'offense is the best defense' policy. Opponents aren't allowed much time with the ball. This makes it very difficult for other teams to take advantage of the gaps between the lines.
While Son is the obvious superstar, this Korea team is different as a result of the emergence of Kim Min-Jae, the domineering Napoli center-back: strong on the ball, but also a hard tackler. However, though he is typically a strong defender of the box for the Partenopei, the NT is very prone to crosses. Their mid-block allows runners into the box with far too much ease. Against teams like Uruguay that favour third man runs, this leaky defense will be problematic.
In Son and Lee Kang-In, South Korea have some forward talents that could make for attractive viewing, but their limitations in both boxes will likely be too problematic to overcome.
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
ALL STATS COURTESY OF FBREF AND OPTA
Comments
Post a Comment