Matt Murray (Marc De Rosiers, USA Today)
The Toronto Maple Leafs have made some perplexing decisions over their distinguished history. We may have another to add to the list.
Desperate for a goalie to keep them in playoff contention for the 2022-23 season, the Leafs figured that their tandem from last year was too expensive and too risky. In Kyle Dubas’ defence, that’s probably a fair statement. Neither Jack Campbell nor Petr Mrazek have shown enough in their NHL careers to prove that they could backstop a Stanley Cup-contending team while also collectively costing close to $9 million against the cap. So, there was a certain inevitability when Dubas dealt Mrazek and a first-round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for a second-round pick.
Suddenly, the possibilities were endless. The Leafs had a world of options at their disposal. Could they go for Darcy Kuemper, who had just backstopped the Colorado Avalanche to a Cup and been nominated for the Vezina Trophy along the way? Could they pick up Ville Husso, a young netminder who flashed potential with the St. Louis Blues last year? Would Campbell be brought back now that Toronto had more cap space, perhaps alongside a cheaper, younger goalie?
While many people have criticized Dubas in the past, most of his deals have seemed fairly rational on paper, so it seemed like one of these options was fairly reasonable.
Suddenly, though, things started to change. Husso was acquired by the Detroit Red Wings. Campbell seemed to be inching ever closer to the Edmonton Oilers. Darcy Kuemper seemed like he may end up being worth too much for Dubas, even with the extra cap relief after the Mrazek trade. The Leafs were getting desperate.
We’ve said it in the past, but there does seem to be a “Last Dance” feeling about this year for Toronto. Their superstars are soon headed for unrestricted free agency and there is no guarantee that they will stay in Toronto. John Tavares isn’t getting any younger. This fanbase can only take so many first-round exits before drastic action has to take place.
Thus, the Leafs had to nail their bet on a goalie, but options were quickly running out. We were all aware of the lack of options on the goalie market. Even still, it was stunning when Elliotte Freidman reported that the Leafs had legitimate interest in acquiring Ottawa’s Matt Murray.
Look, I must preface this entire article by saying that Murray is obviously a half-decent NHL goalie. He has backstopped the Pittsburgh Penguins during two Stanley Cup runs and had shown enough to be rewarded with an expensive contract from the Ottawa Senators a couple of years ago. Either way, you don’t have to be an advanced stats geek to know that Murray is no longer very good at his job.
These are Murray’s stats since 2019-20 (per Sportsnet Stats).
SAVE PERCENTAGE: .899 (48th among all NHL goalies)
GOALS AGAINST AVERAGE: 3.06 (45th)
SHUTOUTS: 4 (34th)
GOALS SAVED ABOVE EXPECTED: -33.2
Yeah, those aren’t great.
However, when I initially read the Murray news, I wasn’t overly opposed to it. It seemed like the likeliest option was that Ottawa would pay 25% of Murray’s salary and then get a third party to cover 50% of his salary in return for some draft picks. With Murray’s $6.25 million cap hit being evenly dispersed, the Leafs would only be paying the two-time Cup champion $1.375 million for the next two years. As a 1B option in a tandem, I could really get around to that. Say what you will about Murray these days. He’d be worth it if he was costing under $1.5 million.
But then the details of the deal were revealed. Murray would be going to Toronto with a third-round pick and a seventh-round pick for future considerations (AKA nothing). That was to be expected, frankly. But a closer look at the final details and you’ll see why I am a bit skeptical of this bet. Ottawa is covering just 25% of Murray’s salary for the next two years and there is no other third party to alleviate the cap concerns. That’s right; Murray is going to cost the Leafs just under $4.7 million.
I’m not going to pretend that I know anything about the development of goalies. They are absolutely voodoo; you never know what they will do in a given season. But this just seems like a risk that isn’t worth taking. Sure, those two picks might help Dubas replenish a prospect cupboard that is in danger of running thin. But, the Leafs are going all-in; prospects shouldn’t be a concern right now. Sure, Murray has a decent track record of success in the NHL. But that track record is from over 5 years ago; he isn’t the same player anymore.
I’m one of the biggest Dubas supporters out there. In my mind, he is far from the biggest problem in this organization. But in a do-or-die year, I simply can’t comprehend pinning your hopes on Matt Murray.
My first issue with the deal was the value. Reportedly, Ottawa offered Murray to the Buffalo Sabres with the 7th overall pick (!) in last Thursday’s draft if Buffalo agreed to pay Murray’s contract in full. They were so desperate to get rid of that albatross of a contract that they were willing to sacrifice a shot at a player like Matthew Savoie, Joakim Kemell, Marco Kasper or Kevin Korchinski. That deal fell through, because Murray didn’t want to play in Buffalo. But it set the stage for what Ottawa was looking for out of a Murray trade. Here is where I don’t understand the valuation of Murray.
If Ottawa was willing to give up their 7th overall pick for Buffalo to cover 100% of Murray’s salary, how is it possible that Toronto only got a third-round pick and a seventh-round pick for covering 75% of his salary? That’s a steep drop-off. I understand that Toronto had less leverage than Buffalo (the Sabres don’t need a competent goalie as badly as the Leafs do), but that seems odd to me. I would have figured that Toronto could have at least scrounged a third-round pick, a seventh-round pick AND a second-round pick. Maybe Dubas could have even picked up a late first or a middling prospect like Maxence Guenette or Parker Kelly? Nope. Ignoring all the context of Toronto’s need for a goalie, this value doesn’t add up. It’s dangerous when an NHL front office values a specific player far above the consensus of other NHL clubs. That seems to be the case here.
But we can’t ignore the context of Toronto’s need for a goalie either. Even in that sense, this deal is peculiar. Everything wrong about this deal comes back to the retained price on Murray. Even if Ottawa retained 50%, I’d like this trade significantly more, as it would mean that the Leafs could add another goalie in a tandem to play alongside him. Or it would mean that the Leafs could secure some of their free agents like Ondrej Kase or Colin Blackwell. By paying 75% of Murray’s contract for the next two seasons, the Leafs are limiting their chances at a competent back-up for the inconsistent Murray.
The most frightening aspect of this deal is Murray’s injury record. I might even understand the bet if Murray was a goalie capable of playing 60 games per season, a player who could justify his cap hit based on his workload alone. But he simply isn’t that.
Murray has never played more than 50 games in an NHL season. In his past two years with Ottawa combined, he has started just 45 games. Murray is excellent when he is on his game and when he is healthy. Frustratingly, those occasions come around very rarely. With limited cap space, it is possible that Toronto can’t find a fellow tandem partner for Murray next season. That may very well mean that somebody like Erik Kallgren or Joseph Woll will have to play between 30-40 games next season. I don’t mean to sound pessimistic, but to succeed in the playoffs, you have to make the playoffs. The Leafs are actively risking missing the playoffs by forcing their young, inexperienced netminder prospects to play half of an NHL season just for somebody who was good in 2017. Let’s not forget how competitive the Atlantic Division is. Ottawa will be better, Detroit will be better, Buffalo will be better and all of Boston, Tampa Bay and Florida will remain great squads. You’d tip this current Leafs team to finish in the top 3, but all you have to do is look at this year’s Toronto Blue Jays to find out that you can’t take regular season success for granted.
The Leafs are forcing themselves to get another goalie in free agency. Can an Eric Comrie and Matt Murray tandem actually be good enough in the playoffs? Is Braden Holtby still a 1A in the NHL? Have Martin Jones’ poor stats just been a byproduct of bad defense around him? As a Leafs fan, none of these options are all that enticing, but it’s likely that Dubas will be stuck with one of them for next season.
*For context, this is how I would rank the available goalies based on how much I want them:
1. Cam Talbot, Minnesota Wild
2. Braden Holtby, free agent
3. Eric Comrie, free agent
4. MacKenzie Blackwood, New Jersey Devils
5. Martin Jones, free agent
I don’t want to keep harping on the ‘retained salary’ part of the deal, but it is crucial. If the Leafs were only paying $1.375 million per year for Murray, they could still get somebody like John Gibson, Jack Campbell or Darcy Kuemper to be a 1A. It may be slightly more costly, but in my opinion, those are better bets that Matt Murray as a starter at $4.675 million.
It’s just hard to get excited about this one. For the Leafs fans, that are feeling optimistic, I wish I could be you right now. But you may be forgetting who Murray is. This dude was placed on waivers last year and was sent down to the AHL for half of the season.
If there is one thing that I can say about the Murray acquisition, it is that we’ve seen something like this recently. In the 2021 offseason, the Carolina Hurricanes decided to let their solid tandem of Alex Nedeljkovic and Petr Mrazek walk for nothing. They were crucified by analysts, especially when they brought in Frederik Andersen at a high price tag. Andersen in 2020-21 had worse numbers than 21-22 Murray, had similar injury woes and spent some time in the AHL, just like Murray. I said the same things about that move as to what I’m currently saying about the Murray trade. Andersen vindicated the Canes with a Vezina-worthy season. Maybe we are seeing that again.
With that being said, it’s hard to justify a team that is second in the Vegas odds for the Stanley Cup next year naming a borderline AHL goalie their starter at such a high price tag. Dubas likes Murray from his time in Sault Ste. Marie, but the young GM is going to need to find the time to stop going after players that he knows from his time in the Soo. If this gamble fails, Dubas’ job will be gone, mark my words. This is the biggest and riskiest bet that Dubas has taken so far. I just don’t think the upside of this trade mitigates the overwhelming risk that comes with making Murray your starter.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF SPORTSNET STATS
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
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