Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid (Andy Devlin, Getty Images)
Wait, what is happening right now? Is the NHL actually fun?
The last few playoffs have been ruined by dumb refereeing calls, poor marketing, and crucial injuries to star players. It made the final few weeks of the season somewhat boring.
That couldn't be further from the truth in 2022. The NHL is marketing its' star talent. Other than a controversial Blake Coleman kicking motion call, the refereeing has been adequate. All is good in the hockey world.
I've always said that hockey is the best sport when it's working and right now, it's going better than it has in years.
This is why I'm so excited for the Conference Finals. Sometimes with this dumb league, it's optimistic to expect that this perfection will continue. But I'm ecstatic nevertheless. Maybe I'm teeing myself up for disappointment. Or maybe hockey is actually fun again.
Anyways, let's get into the Conference Finals predictions. The upsets poured in during the second round, as the Tampa Bay Lightning (yeah, they were the betting underdogs at one point), the Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers all shook off seemingly superior opponents.
Let's not waste any more time jinxing the NHL and hop into the previews.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Tampa Bay Lightning (A3) v New York Rangers (M2)
The storylines are aplenty in this series. The reigning champions taking on the new kids on the block. The experienced team against a young, up-and-coming team. Tampa Bay are the favourites in this matchup, but New York have been underdogs in Round 1 and Round 2, yet they still won. Underestimate them at your own risk.
Whereas the selling point of the Western Conference final is between two offensive dynamos in Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid, the Eastern Conference final is offering a battle between the two best goalies in the world. Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy are both uber-talented Russian netminders, the cream of the crop at their respective positions. Prepare for some 2-1 games that go into 3OT and make you want to claw your eyes out. The action in this series may not be as intense as the other series, but it will be intriguing regardless.
The Rangers are the league's biggest enigma. They've gotten so lucky all season. They vastly outperformed their expected goals total, got carried by a superhuman goalie and now have barely had to face healthy competition in the playoffs. Per JFresh on Twitter, the Rangers have played 5% of minutes against an injured starting goalie, 58% of minutes against a backup goalie and 37% against third-string goalies. They took 7 games to deal with their two opponents. That doesn't bode well for a series against a dynasty like the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Lightning absolutely spanked the Florida Panthers. After building a roster with the sole purpose of outlasting the Lightning, Tampa Bay wiped out the Cats. Andrei Vasilevskiy only allowed 3 goals in the 4 games. It was as dominant a series victory as you will ever see in the second round of the playoffs. You'd consider that bodes well against a vulnerable team like the Rangers.
Not so fast. Gerard Gallant knows how to coach a winning hockey team. Whereas the Lightning are still hanging on to outdated tactics from their last 2 Cup runs, Gallant has found a formula that helps the Rangers win hockey games. Against a mediocre Tampa Bay penalty kill, New York's fluid power play will certainly get opportunities. Though beating Vasilevskiy is no mean feat, New York's finishing is pretty solid, as they have outperformed their xG all season long. With players like Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Andrew Copp all capable of scoring from a variety of spaces on the ice.
At their best, Tampa Bay can make this a short series. But Brayden Point will likely be out for the majority of the games and if he does return, he won't be at his best. Tampa Bay certainly has the star power to limit the necessity for Point, though. Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos are both projected to be the two best forwards in this series, per GSVA. Also, Tampa Bay's depth is far better than New York's. The Lightning have real difference-makers in Corey Perry and Ross Colton in the bottom-six. New York still hasn't turned Alexis Lafreniere into a star. It's easy to say that this is his time to break out, but maybe he just doesn't have star potential. I really like "Laffy" as a player, but I'm skeptical that he can find his game at the perfect time.
The defensive battles in this series will also be fascinating. Since the series will likely come down to whoever has the better goaltender, limiting shots and high danger chances will be crucial. These two teams both have a true number 1 defenseman in Adam Fox and Victor Hedman, respectively. Hedman has been his dominant best in these playoffs. We saw in the Toronto-Tampa Bay series that Hedman steers the ship for Tampa Bay. If he performs poorly, it all goes down the drain for the Bolts.
The Rangers are pretty clear underdogs here. But there is a path to victory for them here. The only reason that we consider Andrei Vasilevskiy to be better than Igor Shesterkin is because Vasilevskiy has the longevity to back up his stats. But what if this is Igor's time? New York has home-ice advantage, which is helpful, as the Rangers' home-away splits in these playoffs are notable: 6-1 at home, 2-5 on the road.
Tampa Bay are looking to become the first team since the New York Islanders to win three Stanley Cups in a row. That happened way back in 1982. Call me crazy, but I think there's a reason for that. It's not easy to do this; just ask the 2018 Pittsburgh Penguins, who got vanquished by their bitter rivals in the playoffs. Or you could ask the 1998 Detroit Red Wings, who lost to their bitter rivals, the Colorado Avalanche. Or you could ask the 1993 Pittsburgh Penguins, who succumbed in overtime of Game 7 of the second round. Or you could ask the 1989 Edmonton Oilers, who were defeated by their former superstar, Wayne Gretzky. You get the picture. Winning three Stanley Cups in a row is a near impossible task. While it's possible that Tampa Bay's demise comes in the Finals or even that they break the 3-in-a-row curse, I just have a feeling about the Rangers.
This prediction could be an all-time flop and the Lightning could cruise by New York. On paper, the Rangers are Tampa Bay's easiest opponent so far, whereas the Lightning are easily the most complete team that New York has had to face. But I'll put my neck on the line and say that the New York Rangers are going to the Stanley Cup finals, backstopped by a legendary Igor Shesterkin performance.
Prediction: New York wins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Edmonton Oilers (P2) v Colorado Avalanche (C1)
While the other series could very well be a bore fest in which the headlines are dominated by goaltending, this series will almost certainly be constant entertainment. We get to watch 4 of the top 5 players in the NHL playing each other at the same time. It's a work of art.
The star power on showcase in this series is pretty wild. We are going to get speed, skill and talent. This has the potential to be the best series in the last decade.
On one side, you have the Edmonton Oilers. Led by Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid (who each have a frankly ridiculous 26 points in 12 games), this team has found its' rhythm under new head coach Jay Woodcroft. The Oilers have picked the perfect time to start playing their best hockey. The suddenly multi-dimensional offense is putting shots on net at a rate that we haven't seen from them ever. The defense looks somewhat stable. Mike Smith is an asset these days, not a liability.
On the other, you have the Colorado Avalanche. Overwhelming Stanley Cup favourites, the Avs finally got over the hump of the second round that had thwarted them for two decades. With two of the fastest players in hockey (Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar) at their disposal, Colorado might be the only team that can out-skill the Oilers. The Avalanche's defense is restricting high danger chances. But Darcy Kuemper, after an excellent regular season, doesn't look like the same player. Against all odds, goaltending is now arguably Colorado's weakness.
The Oilers run with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and currently those two are the best players in hockey. For goodness' sake, Draisaitl just averaged 3.4 points per game against a defensively stout Flames team, despite having a bad ankle; he's still not the superstar of the team. This isn't meant as a shot to the Oilers' roster, who have been incredibly impressive in the past fortnight, but it isn't hyperbole to say that Edmonton's chances rest solely on the shoulders of McDavid and Draisaitl. Colorado has a couple of brilliant defensemen in Cale Makar and Devon Toews, yet even at their best, that duo won't be able to stop Edmonton's stars on current form.
Another worry for Colorado: they can no longer ignore the rest of Edmonton's forwards. The Oilers have constructed an admirable group of depth guys. Evander Kane leads the postseason in goals with 12, Zach Hyman had 6 goals in 5 games against Calgary and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is just under a point-per-game in these playoffs.
Another concern for Colorado is Mike Smith. The two star Russian netminders (Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin) have deservedly garnered the majority of plaudits in these playoffs. But would you believe me if I told you that Mike Smith's save percentage was just 5 points worse than Vasilevskiy's and 1 point worse than Shesterkin. In just 12 games, the veteran goalie has saved 8.8 goals above expected. In the other crease, Kuemper has an unflattering .904 SV% and he has saved -3.0 goals above expected.
But Colorado are favourites in this series for a reason. With Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog, Colorado can almost replicate the value of Edmonton's forwards. I haven't even mentioned Nazem Kadri, who has had to deal with disgusting racism and yet is still having the best postseason of his career. Other depth players like Artturi Lehkonen, Andre Burakovsky and Valeri Nichuskin are all capable of chipping in
Colorado's largest advantage comes on defense. Edmonton arguably are still slightly weak at preventing high danger chances, whereas Colorado has multiple good bluelines to match up against Edmonton's forwards. The Avs are going to make it particularly difficult for McDavid to play his game. Makar is an elite defensive player (his projected value of 4.9 wins equals Edmonton's entire top-six); as is Toews. Josh Manson, acquired from Anaheim at the trade deadline, offers a helpful physical presence. Unfortunately for Colorado, Samuel Girard, who was having an excellent postseason before getting boarded by Ivan Barbashev, will miss every game in this series. Colorado has to settle for Jack Johnson, which is a clear downgrade. After Johnson's mishap in Game 6, maybe Avs coach Jared Bednar will go to Ryan Murray (former #2 overall pick!).
McDavid and Draisaitl have been thriving because the Los Angeles Kings and the Calgary Flames allowed those two to play pond hockey. Bednar needs to learn from the mistakes of Darryl Sutter and Todd McLellan. Match up your defensive specialists with McDavid and Draisaitl and you can only hope to contain them. But they won't be able to dominate the series.
As long as Kuemper doesn't get significantly outplayed by Smith (I have to expect some positive regression for Colorado's goaltender), the Avalanche should be marching onto the Stanley Cup Final. Don't get me wrong, the Oilers are no pushover; just ask Calgary. But as long as Colorado's superior defensive corps doesn't allow Edmonton's stars to run rampant, the Pacific champs should be the Western representative in the 2022 NHL Finals.
Prediction: Colorado wins in 6
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK, MONEYPUCK AND EVOLVING HOCKEY
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