Cale Makar and Steven Stamkos (Ron Henoy, USA Today)
Here we are. The Stanley Cup Finals. It's what all the NHL fans have been waiting for nearly 12 months. While I was really looking forward to a matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and the New York Rangers for the Cup, even I can admit that my excitement level is reaching peak levels at the mere prospect of a duel between two absolute titans of the game.
For the last 3 years, we've been predicting a Tampa Bay v Colorado Finals matchup. It's finally arrived. The star power on display here could very well make this the most entertaining series that we've seen in at least a decade.
On one side, we have the blossoming dynasty: the Tampa Bay Lightning. 4 more wins and Jon Cooper's squad will go into the history books as one of the most notable teams in NHL history. But their opponents are no slouches either. Perhaps the only team worthy of being favoured in a series against this dynamic Lightning squad, the Avalanche have finally put all their potential together to embark on a frankly ridiculous run to this stage, having only lost 2 playoff games this season.
As a neutral fan, all I want are 7 close games between two highly skilled squads. Will we get that? Will I get to see Nazem Kadri lift a Stanley Cup? Will the Tampa Bay Lightning prove themselves to be the best NHL team of the 21st century? I will tackle all these questions and more in the official Sincere Sports prediction of the 2022 Stanley Cup Finals.
ROSTER BREAKDOWN
Tampa Bay Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA Today)
Tampa Bay general manager Julien Brisebois has done an admirable job of building a team that can sustain success. While a lot of credit deserves to go to management and the coach Jon Cooper, this roster of players can rival that of any team in the last 25 years.
The forward corps is jampacked with proven playoff performers. A first line of Ondrej Palat-Steven Stamkos-Nikita Kucherov is quick, skilled and hard to play against. Those are all the qualities of an elite first line. Somehow, these guys all seem to take it up a notch when the stakes get higher. This line isn't a collection of elite defensive players, but they are so slippery on offense that they usually dominate the vast majority of puck possession regardless.
The second line battle will come down to one major X-factor: the health of Brayden Point. Point is expected to start Game 1, which is good news for Tampa Bay, but just because Point is deemed capable of playing, that doesn't mean that he is healthy, per se. Point relies a lot on his speed, so the leg injury that he suffered in Game 7 of the first round is going to hinder his ability to blow past defensemen. Luckily, Tampa Bay have found two absolute gems in Ross Colton and Nick Paul to help carry some of the load while Point eases back. Paul, in particular, has been a star in these playoffs, while Colton is always a good bet for a clutch goal.
On paper, Tampa Bay's third line seems to be an advantage over Colorado. Anthony Cirelli is a tremendous luxury to have as a third line center. For all my fellow Leafs fans, think David Kampf on steroids. Cirelli is one of the league's best defensive centers, as proven by the fact that he has conceded just 6 goals in 251:58 minutes at even strength in the playoffs. Alex Killorn hasn't been at his brilliant best so far. However, past performance means that we can't rule out excellent performances from the typically clutch winger. Barring any unforeseen lineup changes, gritty winger Brandon Hagel will provide the physical element on that line.
Usually, fourth lines don't get many minutes in Stanley Cup action, but these two teams both have the benefit of two very effective groups of depth forwards. Tampa Bay have a legitimate game-breaker in Corey Perry on the fourth line, accompanied by the underrated Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and serial winner Patrick Maroon (the Big Rig is looking for his 15th consecutive series win).
Admittedly, Colorado have a lot of top-tier forward talent, but the Lightning's defensive corps have had all the answers in these playoffs. Against elite offensive players like Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin, Tampa Bay have restricted their opponents to just 2.27 goals per game. Victor Hedman is the obvious highlight. The big Swede is a massive force physically and he possesses the championship pedigree that usually proves invaluable in series like this one. He'll have his hands full with another elite D-man as his closest rival, but if there is anybody who can help Tampa Bay settle down in this series, Hedman is a good bet. Tampa Bay's second and third pairings are considered vast advantages over the Avalanche. Erik McDonagh and Erik Cernak have a 58% expected goal rate in these playoffs. Mikhail Sergachev is way too good to be a team's 5th defenseman, but here we are. He'll be crucial to lock up the Avs' depth guys.
In goal, we see the likely reason that Tampa Bay will win this series. Andrei Vasilevskiy, quickly becoming known as "the Great Equalizer." No matter what I say about the roster matchup for this series, Vasilevskiy can make me eat my words by dominating the crease. After a patchy start to his playoffs against the Maple Leafs, the Russian netminder is in scintillating form.
Colorado Avalanche
Cale Makar (Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today)
The Avalanche are stacked. That's all I can say, at the end of the day. This team is worthy of being the first team to win a playoff series against the Lightning in nearly 3 years. It's a rare team that can go toe-to-toe with the Bolts of the 2020s, but I'm predicting exactly that from GM Joe Sakic's squad.
Colorado's forward corps is downright lethal. Nathan MacKinnon is the standout player, as he may very well be the second best player on the planet. Not even Tampa Bay, with players like Kucherov, Stamkos and Point can match that type of world-class scoring talent. Coach Jared Bednar has partnered him with Gabriel Landeskog, the captain, and breakout star Valeri Nichuskin. With Nichuskin, this team is definitely more stable defensively than Tampa Bay's top trio. MacKinnon and Landeskog make sure that this line equally carries a deadly and potent threat in the offensive zone. If the Avalanche are to win this series, they need MacKinnon to go ballistic and for their top line to outplay their Floridian counterparts.
Bednar's decision to drop Mikko Rantanen to the second line gives the club from Denver multiple options to score. If all goes poorly, Rantanen and Nichuskin can swap places. However, for now, the Finnish dynamo will hope to take advantage of an easier matchup to rack up shots on goal. The major question for Colorado will be Nazem Kadri's health. Similarly to Tampa Bay with Point, the Avs have a crucial second line forward who is dealing with an injury. Before being cross-checked from behind against the Oilers, Kadri was in beast mode, playing at a level we hadn't seen from him in his entire NHL career. If he misses the entire series, that would be a big blow for Colorado. Even if he does return, there will be concerns that he won't be able to carry over his form after sustaining the injury. Artturi Lehknonen, who has been a great pickup by Colorado's front office, will look to replace Kadri's influence.
When fully healthy, Andre Burakovsky plays on Colorado's third line. That just goes to show how deep their top-six is. Burakovsky is a highly effective forward who will likely be on the second line to begin the series, but could drop back if Kadri gets the green light. If this is the case, JT Compher and Nicolas Aube-Kubel are both tough players that can execute cycle plays well. The Avalanche's youngster Alex Newhook should get minutes alongside Compher and Aube-Kubel while Burakovsky plays in the top-six.
While not a sexy trio on paper, Andrew Cogliano-Darren Helm-Logan O'Connor just get it done. They fit perfectly into coach Bednar's philosophy of working very hard and controlling possession whenever possible. Look for any one of those guys to score a key goal for the Avalanche. They just always seem to pop up at the right time.
The Avs' defense isn't as deep as Tampa Bay's, but they have the best blueliner in the league: Cale Makar. Makar is the reincarnation of Bobby Orr, a future Hall-of-Famer and Hart Trophy winner who is equally excellent at producing offense and locking up quick forwards. Makar is currently the betting favourite for the Conn Smythe Trophy (playoff MVP), which just goes to show what the 23-year old has been doing over the past month. He is paired with Devon Toews, formerly known as the most underrated player in the league, but he seems to be finally getting his kudos. Per Dimitri Filipovic, the Avs are a pretty stunning 63-9-6 in 78 games with that pair in the lineup, with a +121 goal differential. Lower in the lineup, Bowen Byram is living on the potential that once made him a top-5 draft pick. On a mission to prove himself as "the next Cale Makar," Byram has been incredible, allowing just 30 carries into his own zone on 72 5-on-5 entries defended. The former Vancouver Giant is establishing himself as a star before our eyes. The Avs have a bit of a weakness other than those three (Jack Johnson should not be playing for a Cup finalist), but Josh Manson is pretty good and Erik Johnson isn't awful by any means.
Goaltending is where the Avs might struggle. Darcy Kuemper was very good in the regular season, but he had stumbled in the playoffs. He has never seemed to find a rhythm. In fact, due to injuries, Pavel Francouz, the backup, has been getting extended play time and he is outperforming Kuemper. However, Kuemper will start Game 1 no matter what. If he can package his regular season performance into the postseason, the Avs will be tough to beat.
Okay, but what does the math say?
(Courtesy of The Athletic)
The Colorado Avalanche and the Tampa Bay Lightning have gotten here based off of their prowess with analytics, so it's only fair that we dedicate an entire section to the mathematics. Here's what the math tells us about the series.
Well, straight off the bat, math is picking the Avs. Their Corsi, xG and actual goals are all better than Tampa Bay's in the regular season and the playoffs. Colorado have taken off in the postseason, finding another gear in all three zones. They are generating high danger chances at a rate that not team is even coming close to.
The Lightning, by contrast, don't have the numbers to back up their credentials. Their mediocre shooting percentage of 6.9% is not cutting it, despite obvious increased effort in the offensive and neutral zones. What's odd is that Tampa Bay's shooting percentage was at 9.4% in the regular season, good enough for 4th in the entire NHL. Despite having all the numbers at my disposal, I can't explain why Tampa Bay's finishing has dropped off a cliff.
Colorado have been equally good defensively. The shot and scoring chance suppression rates have increased for the Avs, despite the team already having very promising numbers in that department during the regular season. Keep in mind that Colorado's goalie Darcy Kuemper hasn't been at his best yet, as evidenced by their save % ranking below league average in the postseason. That should regress to the mean, so we may not have seen the best of Colorado's defensive prowess.
Tampa's defensive results are fairly similar to what they were in the regular season. They are allowing more shots on goal, but that is likely explained by the fact that there defensemen are sitting a bit deeper to prevent high danger chances in the infamous Triangle Zone. Colorado like to shoot the puck, so Andrei Vasilevskiy is going to have to be sharp.
The Lightning may be better off playing a more counter-attacking style against Colorado. They have the elite goaltending and elite defense to stuff up quality chances. With Vasilevskiy between the pipes, the Bolts can soak up pressure and then respond the other way with an odd-man rush, especially if they get a chance against Colorado's third defense pairing of Jack Johnson and Josh Manson, both of whom can get caught a little flat-footed at times.
Okay, but what does the eye test say?
To be crude, the Avalanche are that guy, pal. They are a juggernaut and are rightly favoured to break down this Tampa Bay dynasty. They are rapid, talented and deep. They fit the mould of a typical Stanley Cup champion. It really feels like Colorado's time, even if they won't have Nazem Kadri for a good portion of the series. They are coming off a long rest after their sweep of the Edmonton Oilers, which will either leave them rusty or prepared to face the mental toll of playing against a generational team.
Most people seem to give the edge in speed, skill and finish to the Avs. But write off the Lightning at your own peril.
I still have yet to get a good read on this Lightning squad. Of the three series they've played so far, I only picked them to win one of them, yet here they are. I don't think it's debatable to say that the Avs are the best team that Tampa Bay have faced during their dominant playoff streak. Based on the eye test and mathematics, the Avalanche are very clearly ahead of the Lightning. Nevertheless, the Lightning just always seem to find a way.
Their intangibles are incredible. I've never been more confident that a professional sports team will win than when the Lightning go down in the series. They simply refuse to roll over. Even when Colorado is applying the chokehold, the Lightning aren't going to suffer. Their will trumps even the Avs' skill level.
This cagey Lightning team are in unfamiliar territory. But with a world-class goalie and a team that refuses to quit, they are going to make this a long series.
Okay, but what do I say?
The Avs celebrate the Game 4 OT winner against Edmonton (Walter Tychnowicz, USA Today)
Get ready, everybody. 2022 will mark the end of a dynasty and potentially the beginning of another. Yeah, I know, I've underestimated the Lightning twice already; why would I be stupid enough to do it again?
The answer is simple. The Avalanche are a star-studded team. Even without Kadri in the lineup, Colorado are simply a better team than the Lightning are. I'm expecting the Avs to come out flying. They will not surrender. While it's true that the Avalanche aren't used to a team as complete as Tampa Bay, I would say that the same is true from the Lightning's perspective. This seems like the right year for Colorado to break through, so that's exactly what I am going to predict.
The Colorado Avalanche will be the 2022 Stanley Cup champions. You heard it here. Don't forget it.
Prediction: Colorado wins in 7
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK, NATURAL STAT TRICK AND EVOLVING-HOCKEY
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