Draymond Green and Marcus Smart (John Tlumacki, Getty Images)
The NBA finals are here at last. The Golden State Warriors dispatched the Dallas Mavericks with ease, whereas the Boston Celtics battled hard to get past the Miami Heat. It all amounts to one exciting matchup.
We only have one series to discuss in this article, so I'll be able to go a bit more in-depth and tackle more subjects.
This series is about as 50-50 as it gets. Most of the general public seems to think that the Warriors have this won already, while the analytics community seems to favour the Celtics. As always, it's probably right in the middle.
Of all the teams that the Warriors have faced so far, the Celtics are by far the most skilled. One could argue that this matchup is actually a bit of a disaster for Golden State, as the Celtics seem built to beat these Warriors.
The Celtics have an excellent wing player who can take advantage of some of Golden State's turnover issues (Jayson Tatum). They have a tenacious defender who can handle Stephen Curry (Marcus Smart). They have hardened big men to challenge at the rim (Robert Williams III and Al Horford). They have a secondary scoring option who can alleviate the double teams on Tatum and force Golden State's more offensive-minded players into tough minutes (Jaylen Brown). This energetic Boston team can counter the Warriors perfectly.
But the Warriors are here for a reason. We've seen countless times that playoff experience is absolutely crucial in long, grueling Finals. The Warriors have experience in spades. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala have all been in this situation multiple times. This will be Steve Kerr's 6th ever NBA Finals as a coach. This is Boston coach Ime Udoka's first year as a coach. The experience difference is notable here.
The Warriors are an excellent team. Stephen Curry is having a poor season by his standards, but he was still in the borderline MVP conversation. Klay Thompson can get red-hot from range almost instantly. Jordan Poole has elevated himself into a tier that seemed unheard of at the start of the season. Draymond Green is still the best defender in the league, in my opinion. Gary Payton II is a key bench defender. Something else that is very important for the Warriors is home-court advantage. They are a whopping 9-0 at home in the postseason. Due to the fact that Golden State had the better regular season record, the Celtics will have to win at least once at Chase Arena to hoist the Larry O'Brien.
That's not to say the Celtics can't do it. While the Warriors are an amazing team at home, the Celtics are road warriors. They are 7-2 in these playoffs away from home. But being at home for the pivotal games of the series will benefit the Warriors' rookies, like Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody, who may have a role to play. Rookies usually perform better at home, since they don't have to face the same pressure from road fans as they do in their own building.
The pivotal matchup in this series will be between Marcus Smart, the Defensive Player of the Year and Stephen Curry, one of the premier offensive players of the 21st century. Smart is returning from the injured list for this series, but it's hard to believe that he is fully healthy. Ankle injuries are notoriously prone to flare-ups. Chasing around the elusive Curry won't be a nice experience for Smart's ankle. He's a good enough perimeter defender to contest shots, but the injury will likely limit him from being able to go toe-to-toe with Steph. A worry for Curry and the Warriors might be that Smart could resort to some unsavoury methods of dealing with his matchup. He's already hurt Curry in the regular season; what's stopping the relentless Smart from taking Curry out of the series with a dangerous play?
Speaking of the regular season, there is another factor that could benefit the Celtics. In the Steve Kerr era, Boston are 9-7 against the Warriors. While that may not sound special, they are actually the only team in the NBA with a winning record in that time. Boston simply have Golden State's number. The two squads are quite different since the beginning of Kerr's tenure, but it is something to keep in mind.
The entire series will be a fascinating duel between Golden State's elite offense (116.1 offensive rating in the postseason) against the Celtics' stingy defense (105.2 defensive rating in the playoffs). These teams are both the cream of the crop of the league and they absolutely deserve a shot to compete for the highest honour in the National Basketball Association. Thus, I think this is going to be a long series.
I'm not entirely certain who that benefits. Golden State have the experience and are the fresher team (they have played 16 games to Boston's 18). But the Celtics have already played two Game 7s during this run. The Warriors haven't gone past Game 6 in any of their series. While the Celtics have already tested their mettle against excellent teams in win-or-go home games, the Warriors haven't won a Game 7 since 2018 against the Houston Rockets. What I can say with absolutely certainty is that it will benefit the neutral fans, like me.
Here is how I think the series will play out.
Game 1 will be played in front of a raucous Chase Center. The Celtics will showcase some early energy, but the second half will see Curry, Klay and Jordan Poole all clicking together at a rate we haven't seen yet. The Warriors will take Game 1.
Ime Udoka's Celtics will be eager to bounce back. Of all the teams that the Warriors are encountered so far, the Celtics will be the team most likely to keep their motivation after a tough loss. Tatum and Brown will go ballistic in this game, as both offenses will go back and forth. This game will be closer than Game 1 and it will favour a Boston team that have it all to play for. Series tied at 1-1.
Game 3 will be the first game played in Boston. Players like Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins will struggle from the field, as these are their first Finals in a road building. Unlike the first two games, this will be a gritty eyesore of a game. Defense will be the prevailing theme and Boston are undoubtedly the better defensive team. The Celtics go up 2-1.
The Warriors are in unfamiliar territory at this point. They haven't been trailing a series for the entire postseason. Lesser teams would shrink in the pressure, but the Warriors are perfectly capable of responding from Boston's hypothetical Game 3 victory. Game 4 will be an ugly blowout in Golden State's favour.
The Warriors are an amazing home team and Game 5 is going to prove it. Led by Curry and Thompson in a game reminiscent of the Golden State of old, Steve Kerr's squad will get back-to-back blowouts to put the chokehold on Boston. Warriors are in control with a 3-2 series lead.
It wouldn't be an NBA Finals if there wasn't a controversial refereeing decision. Game 6 will finally be a close battle between the Celtics and the Warriors, but a sketchy foul call will go in Boston's favour. The Celtics will pick up a tight win to force a Game 7 in San Francisco.
This is going to be a wild Game 7. No blowouts, unlike the majority of games in this postseason. The Celtics and Warriors will go right down to the wire. While it's entirely possible that Golden State's veteran experience gives them the edge, I think the young, hungry Celtics are going to be the next NBA champions. Boston simply has championship DNA. They haven't won a title since 2008; that doesn't seem right. Now is the time for the Boston Celtics to break that drought and for Jayson Tatum to achieve legendary status.
Prediction: Boston Celtics win in 7 games
ALL STATS COURTESY OF BASKETBALL REFERENCE
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