Karim Benzema (David Ramos, Getty Images)
The second leg of the Champions League semifinals is upon us. So far, it's looking like we are going to have yet another all-English final, between two teams who have already played each other twice in the last month. However, there is one matchup that definitely isn't settled yet, so I can't ignore this competition just yet!
Let's get on to the predictions for Villarreal-Liverpool and Real Madrid-Manchester City.
Villarreal vs Liverpool (aggregate 0-2)
Though Villarreal's excellent defense against Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals combined with Liverpool's tendency to be a bit blunt in attack led some to tip the Yellow Submarine for a draw, they were utterly dominated at Anfield. Emery stuck with his guns, which worked against Bayern, but probably cost Villarreal a chance in the match against Liverpool.
What Emery's Villarreal does better than any team in world football is slow the game down. They are what Atletico Madrid want to be in that sense. They force teams to foul them by attacking quickly on the break. Since they have so much pace, often teams have no choice but to bring down a player and force a free kick. The problem with this tactic is that Villarreal have so many smart players. When afforded a break in open play, they can reorganize themselves and get ready to surprise their opponents. Jurgen Klopp must have realized this at half-time after Liverpool had conceded 7 fouls in the opening 45 minutes, per FotMob. For the rest of the match, Liverpool only conceded two fouls and they dominated possession. Eventually, they managed two goals in the second half to go to Spain with a considerable advantage.
Liverpool utterly dominated Villarreal in the first leg, because they never gave the Yellow Submarine a chance to play their own game. They penned them back and forced short passes out of their opponents. According to Michael Cox, within the first 8 minutes of the second half, Villarreal completed three passes. They were never afforded space by the high-pressing Liverpool squad.
Liverpool just need to keep playing their game to advance to the final and boost their quadruple chances. Villarreal are a frustrating team to play, but if Liverpool can force some set pieces, they should have no problem scoring. They may decide to sit back a little bit, but that would surprise me.
Villarreal need a monumental effort to win this tie. The main change needs to be a tactical one; this team needs more width. Emery selected a 4-4-2 with 4 central midfielders, which let Mohamed Salah and Luis Diaz dictate the tempo of the game. Villarreal are at their best when they are dictating the pace and play of the match. I'd expect Moi Gomez and Samuel Chukwueze to drop back onto the flanks of Emery's 4-4-2. Giovani Lo Celso will probably accompany Arnaut Danjuma up front, since Gerard Moreno is still nursing an injury.
I don't know if Liverpool will field a full strength XI here. I expect Diogo Jota might draw in, while Virgil van Dijk could start on the bench to avoid picking up another yellow card. Villarreal will focus on defending the flanks and they should do better to control the pace of the match, but it's impossible to imagine anything other than Liverpool advancing.
Prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Liverpool
Real Madrid vs Manchester City (aggregate 3-4)
After one of the best matches of all-time, Real Madrid and Man City get set for round 2 at the Santiago Bernabeu. The football was breathless between two sides oozing in offensive quality.
These two teams are very different to analyze. While Manchester City under Pep Guardiola have complex tactics all over the place, Carlo Ancelotti's Real Madrid are a lot more simple in structure. Whereas City play with marauding full-backs, a fluid front three, a false 9 and a mastery of occupying open spaces, Real Madrid's tactics are essentially "give it to Modric and he'll give it to Benzema." I want to hear a side-by-side of Ancelotti and Guardiola's team talks at half-time. Pep would be randomly moving his little pieces all over the chess board, while Carlo would do the little eyebrow raise and say "pass it to Benzema more often, guys."
City are all about organization. They keep calm under pressure and operate as a squad. Real don't have quite the same squad depth, so they are all about individual brilliance and inflicting chaos on their opponents.
In the first leg, Real allowed City to play their game. The Cityzens were synchronized in their pressing and ruthless with their passing. They held 60% of possession and almost always made the right plays with the ball. However, Madrid still managed to keep the deficit to just 1, even on a night in which City were immaculate, largely through their chaotic structure. I saw a brilliant analogy recently from the Athletic's John Muller, who compared City to sheet music and Real to pure jazz.
I honestly do think that Real have a very good chance in this tie. I'm skeptical that Manchester City can play as organized a game as they did a week ago and the atmosphere in Madrid will be hostile. Real's chances rest entirely on their ability to create chaos. We all know that Luka Modric, Vinicius Jr and Karim Benzema are going to smoothly scythe through City whenever they are afforded the chance, but every other player on Real's side of the pitch will just be a random mix of limbs. This is such a risky style of play, but it has a high ceiling. Unless City can cope with Real's chaos for a full 90 minutes, there is no way that Madrid will not score a goal; Benzema is too good.
City are going to have to adapt on the fly. Pep needs to keep it simple; he has the more talented squad here. Don't prepare for any blockbuster tactical changes from Carlo, because that's not his style of management. City like to play orderly football, which in theory, should combat chaos very well. But I wonder what would happen if they went all bonkers too. Could their individual brilliance surpass that of Madrid? Is that a bet Pep is willing to take?
Madrid also need to keep being Madrid. Despite getting battered in possession by a superior City side, they kept the deficit down to just 1 goal. They'll have the home crowd on their side and they have a very-in form front three of Vinicius, Benzema and Rodrygo.
I think Madrid are going to win this match. I have a hard time seeing a 4-3 score again, but there will be goals. As of yet, we haven't seen any match go to penalties in this year's UCL. I think that is going to change here. Madrid will pull off the victory, but I think City will keep their composure and advance to face their rivals in the final.
Prediction: Madrid wins 2-1 (City advance on penalties)
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