The Rangers celebrate their OT victory (Bruce Bennett, Getty Images)
As much as the Toronto Maple Leafs' first round playoff exit hurt me, the agony was covered up fairly quickly when I saw this year's playoff matchups. We got spoiled this year. I'm super excited to see the storylines come together.
I had a pretty successful go of things in my first round predictions. The Minnesota Wild's horrid play in the latter half of their series screwed me out of a perfect 8/8, but in general, I'm pretty happy with the predictions.
I want to go perfect here, though. The NHL playoffs are notoriously hard to predict, as I said in the previous article. However, I've done my research and I've watched the games, so I'm prepared for a fun article of analysis and previews.
I won't waste any more time. Let's start in the Eastern Conference.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Florida Panthers (A1) v Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)
Steven Stamkos and Aleksander Barkov (Eliot J. Schechter, Getty Images)
The playoff series between the Florida Panthers and the Tampa Bay Lightning last year was one of the most fun set of games I've seen in years. These teams are both fast, skilled and gifted. Similarly to the playoff series between the Lightning and the Maple Leafs, this is going to be end-to-end action. We are going to be able to witness some rushes and breakaways. Whichever team takes advantage more often will be the one to march on the Conference Finals.
The Panthers finally exorcised their playoff demons, winning their first playoff series since 1996. That year, the Cats went all the way to the Cup Finals. Will that repeat itself this season? It's possible. This team was an offensive force in the regular season. The scariest part of Florida's scoring is that they can do it in so many different ways. There is no weak spot in Florida's forward lineup. Jonathan Huberdeau struggled somewhat in the series against the Washington Capitals. But Carter Verhaeghe picked up Huberdeau's slack and had an absolute superstar performance against the Caps. Huberdeau won't be kept quiet forever. If he can get back to his best and Verhaeghe can also carry over his excellence, the Panthers are frightening. Claude Giroux and Aleksander Barkov are both stars in this league; they'll be there to star against Tampa Bay.
The defense was not up to snuff against Washington. The Caps had way too many easy looks at the net. Aaron Ekblad, Florida's best defenseman, looked very clearly injured in that series. Washington outnumbered Florida in terms of quality chances when Ekblad was on the ice, a rarity for somebody who has been one of the best in the league recently. As a whole, Florida's defense corps is scheduled to have similar value to Tampa Bay's blueline. MacKenzie Weegar and Gustav Forsling are the Panthers' next best defensemen and they can drive play fairly well. However, like Ekblad, Weegar wasn't up to his usual performance in Round 1. Against a Tampa Bay team that possesses a killer instinct that Washington may be missing, Weegar and Ekblad both have to be better than adequate.
The goaltending is where Florida is really hoping for a miracle. Sergei Bobrovsky was good enough in the regular season and against a toothless Caps team in the first round. However, Tampa Bay, even without Brayden Point, are way above the Capitals when it comes to producing offense.
Speaking of Brayden Point, the Lightning star was injured after an awkward fall in Game 7 of the series against the Leafs. He is considered "highly doubtful" for Game 1, which would be a brutal loss. Tampa Bay's offense was the not the reason they won the series against the Maple Leafs. It isn't at the same elite level it was during their glory days in the last 2 seasons. Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov are still difference-makers, but they weren't as effective as you might have expected them to be at even strength against Toronto. In fact, one could argue that Nick Paul and Brandon Hagel were Tampa Bay's best forwards during that series. While that is helpful, to defeat a much more skilled Florida squad, the Lightning's stars will need to show up.
Tampa Bay's defense will have a tough task against a Panthers top-9 that consists of multiple star players. So far, we haven't seen anybody other than Victor Hedman find a way to have a legitimate impact at suppressing high-danger chances. Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak both had sub-50% expected goals rates against the Leafs. Ryan McDonagh had a decent series, but he couldn't hold Toronto's stars off the scoresheet. His job will be tougher this series.
That's why Andrei Vasilevskiy is the biggest game-changer in this series. The Russian Wall was surprisingly ordinary against the Maple Leafs, allowing 0.3 goals above expected. He had an .897 SV%, too. Due to his average play, Tampa Bay barely scraped past the Leafs. But when the going gets tough, "Vasy" can steal a series. I'm not entirely confident that Sergei Bobrovsky is capable of that.
Florida loaded up this year and they became a very scary team. GM Bill Zito likely figured that this team would have to face Tampa Bay eventually. Other than the goaltending mismatch, Florida's roster is constructed to take down the Lightning's. If the Panthers come up short this year, the season will be a failure. They have more on the line than any remaining playoff team. I think Point's absence might be too tough for the Lightning to mask, so I legitimately think that this series favours Florida. This will be a close one and a good one, but Florida are able to pull it off.
Prediction: Florida wins in 7
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) v New York Rangers (M2)
The Tony DeAngelo derby gets set and it looks like it could very well be a very entertaining series between these two Metropolitan powerhouses. These teams both had some excellent battles in the first round, but here we are and these squads will have to duke it out for a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Hurricanes were my pick to represent the East in the Stanley Cup Final, so I'm not surprised to see them as the betting favourites for this series. Carolina plays a style of hockey that is very difficult to beat. They are so well-conditioned that they can simply outwork every single opponent.
The Rangers, are in my opinion, the most flawed team still remaining in the NHL playoffs. Igor Shesterkin had some growing pains in his first ever postseason as a starter and if he can't be a borderline MVP candidate, New York are too leaky defensively to compete in any sense with the Canes.
In the regular season, Carolina established themselves as a free-shooting team. Unlike a team such as the St. Louis Blues, who take their time on offense to create meticulous scoring chances, the Canes like to spam shots from anywhere in the offensive zone. They have found lots of success with a big power forward like Andrei Svechnikov in front of the net who can pick up the rebounds and bury open shots. Carolina's forward depth has been considered a weakness of theirs in the past, but coach Rod Brind'Amour addressed that by promoting Seth Jarvis to the top line and knocking Nino Niederreiter to the bottom-six. The Canes' star power on offense is probably slightly less than New York, simply because the Rangers have 3 stars up front and Carolina only has Svechnikov and Sebastian Aho. But players like Max Domi, Vincent Trocheck and Jarvis can help provide secondary scoring for the team.
Carolina's defense is clearly their strength. The Canes limited shots against better than any other team in the regular season. Their structure is so compact that it's difficult for opponents to get open looks in high-danger areas. Though DeAngelo was a controversial pickup in the offseason for his disputes during his time in New York, he has become a critical member of one of the league's best D cores. Beside Jaccob Slavin, who is finally getting his due as one of the NHL's premier players, DeAngelo has thrived. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce is also a very good second pairing. New York's inconsistent offense will have a tough time getting through Carolina's elite defense.
In the regular season, Carolina's goalie signing, Frederik Andersen, had a top-notch GAA, with a lot of credit belonging to Carolina's team defense. Andersen didn't face many high danger chances and a Vezina nomination was his reward. However, he was injured for the entire first round, leading some people to pick the Boston Bruins to advance. Nevertheless, Antti Raanta, the Hurricanes' backup, was excellent in Round 1 and he showed that Carolina doesn't need Freddie to beat the Rangers.
I don't want to take anything away from the Rangers, but they shouldn't be here. You could argue that Pittsburgh's choke was the main reason for the Rangers' victory, but even the most biased New York fan would admit they got lucky. Pittsburgh had to ice a less-than-adequate third-string goalie for 5 games in the series. Sidney Crosby, a top-10 player in the NHL, was ruled out for crucial elimination games after a questionable hit from New York's Jacob Trouba. The Pens, in general, got the short end of the stick on a few big refereeing decisions in the latter half of the round.
However, New York has the talent to make this difficult. Chris Kreider, Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin are all star players. Frank Vatrano, Ryan Strome and Andrew Copp seal a pretty good top-6. But if Carolina's depth is a concern, New York's is a disaster. Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko obviously have talent, but they haven't cut it at the NHL level yet. Rangers fans will be hoping this could be a breakout moment for Lafreniere, who is capable of providing much-needed secondary scoring. Something to watch out for is New York's power play. The Rangers won the special teams battle against the Pens. Carolina's penalty kill is very good, but it showed some holes against Boston. If New York can take advantage of the amount of penalties that the Canes take, this will become much closer.
New York has a nice mix of youth and veteran experience on their blueline. The top pair of Ryan Lindgren and Adam Fox gets the job done in every single scenario. They will have to control play and suppress Carolina' chance generation simultaneously. The next two duos are a significant step backwards, but there is enough talent there to assure that the Hurricanes don't dominate the defensive battles and 50-50s.
The biggest X-factor of this series is in net. Igor Shesterkin might very well win the Vezina Trophy for best netminder in the NHL unanimously this year. The Russian goalie didn't play to his high standards in Round 1 against Pittsburgh, but he seemed to get his rhythm going in the last 3 games. If Shesterkin's improvement is a sign of things to come, New York will dominate the crease battle and can push this to 7. If not, Carolina are going to march onto the Conference Finals without much difficulty.
The Hurricanes are an excellent team at home. It's going to be hard for New York to win more than 1 game in Raleigh. But I do think Igor Shesterkin is capable of giving Carolina more problems than Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark did. I can't see the Rangers continuing their magic to pull off the upset, but they also won't be a pushover.
Prediction: Carolina wins in 6
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche (C1) v St. Louis Blues (C3)
Cale Makar and Brandon Saad (Matthews Stockman, Getty Images)
After an easy four-game sweep in Round 1, the Colorado Avalanche, overwhelming Stanley Cup favourites, are prepared to face their demons. The Avs haven't made it to the third round of the playoffs since 2002, despite having many immensely talented teams over that stretch.
The Blues, on the other hand, had fairly low expectations for themselves. After drawing the Minnesota Wild in Round 1, St. Louis' starting goalie Ville Husso started struggling. But then, coach Craig Berube went for Jordan Binnington and the Blues became a whole different team.
This St. Louis team is deadly. They are a deep offensive team. Their puck movement and skating makes them tough to deal with, even for an Avalanche team that went so heavy on adding defensive studs to their forward corps. The Blues don't have particularly special outlooks in the statistical department. But this team is geared for the playoffs. They fit into a similar profile of many of the teams that have found ways past the Avalanche in recent years.
This Blues team is fast, heavy and they can get good goaltending every now and then. Their top-9 is one of the best in the league. St. Louis had some struggles generating chances in the first round, particularly when the games got close. St. Louis are ruthless in the sense that once they get clicking offensively, it's hard to stop them. But if Colorado can prevent them from scoring first in most of the games, this series will be a lot easier for them to win. On the Blues' forward corps, Ryan O'Reilly can be a difference-maker. Jordan Kyrou is going to have to win the easier minutes he might get against Colorado's bottom-six. Vladimir Tarasenko will need to shoot at a ridiculous rate. The gap in quality between these two forward cores is so notable that all these will need to happen for St. Louis to outscore the Avalanche.
St. Louis' defense pales in comparison to the Avs'. Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk are both good at getting shots on net and breaking up plays in their own zone. However, considering those two are both right-handers, they can't be loaded onto the same duo. Marco Scandella runs the top pair with Parayko and he isn't good enough to hold up under intense minutes in the second round. Torey Krug is a bit better, but St. Louis will need their top-4 operating at a very high level to win this series. I'm not entirely sure they are capable. An injury to any one of the Blues' defensemen would probably eliminate all hope for them.
In goal, there is a bit of controversy. Ville Husso outperformed Jordan Binnington significantly in the regular season, but with Husso in net, St. Louis were losing the series to Minnesota. As soon as the experienced Binnington was placed in the crease, the Blues didn't lose a single game. I suspect Berbube goes with "Binner," but who even knows at this point?
The Colorado Avalanche are a world-class team. They are one of the best teams I've seen in the last few years of NHL hockey. Similarly to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Avs' biggest enemy is themselves.
On paper, the Avalanche are capable of wiping the Blues off the surface of the Earth. While the Blues improved significantly since they met the Avalanche in last year's playoffs, so has Colorado. Last year, the Blues were swept. This year, it might be a little different, but you'd expect similar results.
The Avalanche are one of the few teams who can match St. Louis' forward depth. Every single player is capable of making a positive impact. Whether it be by breaking up zone entries or forcing high danger chances, their forward are an elite group. The top line of Rantanen-MacKinnon-Landeskog can tear holes in any team and the Blues aren't particularly elite in that sense. But it's not just those guys. 9 different players scored at least one goal. Nazem Kadri still hasn't gotten suspended, which is a good sign.
As I mentioned before for Colorado, their defense will be the biggest separator in this series. St. Louis' defensemen can't match up with the top pair of Devon Toews and Cale Makar. Those guys are going to dominate on both the power play and the penalty kill. Samuel Girard will need to have a good series to give Colorado some more options on the other pairings. He has typically struggled in the playoffs, but he should find some space now. Maybe young Bowen Byram will have his breakout moment.
Colorado's defense might not even matter. Darcy Kuemper has been one of the best goalies in the league in the new year. St. Louis will make his job more difficult than Nashville were able to, but the former Coyotes netminder is capable of operating at around a .915 SV% at the very least. I expect that would be enough to knock off the Blues.
St. Louis have the intangibles. They won the Stanley Cup three years ago. That matters. However, Colorado are a very talented squad. The Blues have had the benefit of luck this season, but good teams create their own luck. The Blues are undoubtedly a good team. But the Avs are a great team. I've got Colorado finally breaking their drought.
Prediction: Colorado wins in 6
Calgary Flames (P1) v Edmonton Oilers (P2)
Not only were we blessed with the Battle of Florida in the second round, but a set of two Game 7s out West assured that we would get the dream matchup between the Calgary Flames and the Edmonton Oilers. We haven't gotten the Battle of Alberta in the postseason since 1991, a whopping 31 years ago. But here we are, and it's going to be epic.
Both of these teams looked surprisingly vulnerable in Round 1. I picked both Albertan teams to get by the Dallas Stars and L.A. Kings respectively with relative ease, but both series went the distance. However, in the end, these two teams showed why they are the cream of the crop in the Pacific Division.
Calgary's finishing really let them down in the series against the Stars. The Flames continued to add to their status as the darlings of the analytics community against Dallas. They controlled the overwhelming majority of the shot share, notable racking up 134 shot attempts in Game 7. Their defense was very good and Jacob Markstrom was stout. But for whatever reason, Calgary struggled to hit twine. Against an offensively dynamic team in Edmonton, Calgary can't rely on their defense to win this series. They will the need the power play to finally get results. They will need all of their top line members to outperform the Oilers' stars. Calgary's depth, which GM Brad Treliving has tried to address this season, can't get outperformed by Edmonton's depth.
Calgary are one of the league's best defensive teams. They have no weaknesses in the top-4. All of those guys can munch big minutes against star players. Calgary get results despite not having a clear number 1 defenseman. They shut down good teams by committee, which should help against an Edmonton team that has weaponized their stars by double-shifting and stacking forward lines. The Flames' bluelines are fast and savvy. They'll use their bodies, while also making zone entries look clean and efficient. That combination of speed and aggressiveness matches up particularly well with players like Connor McDavid.
In net, Calgary has the advantage of having Jacob Markstrom. After signing a rich contract in the 2020 offseason, Markstrom went a long way towards paying off his contract with his dominant 2021-22 regular season. Without Markstrom's strong play in the series against Dallas, it's entirely possible the Flames wouldn't even be here right now. He will need to continue his good play against Edmonton's top-heavy offense.
Speaking of that offense, it is led by the league's best player. Connor McDavid deserves playoff success and though he hasn't received it yet, he seems to be improving every season. McDavid is capable of dominating this series, even though Calgary do have a really good defense. His fellow superstar, Leon Draisaitl, is probably the second best player in this series when healthy. But that needs to be stressed. In the first round against L.A., Draisaitl didn't look anywhere near 100%. He was sloppy with the puck on his stick and after improving significantly better defensively after Jay Woodcroft's hiring, his defensive play was absolutely awful in the series. If Draisaitl isn't anywhere near 100% against a very good Flames team, Edmonton's offense, which is typically their calling card, will not be a strength. Edmonton's depth would have to step up significantly. To be fair to them, the depth stepped up against the Kings. Evander Kane was great and Jesse Puljujarvi continued to work hard.
Defense is clearly the Oilers' weakness. The blueline looks utterly amateur at times and that's not going to stand against a team as deep and hard-working as the Flames. However, I've seen enough of Edmonton at their best that I think they stand a chance here. Darnell Nurse is a very good D-man and Cody Ceci has had a real redemptive season next to Nurse. Duncan Keith and Evan Bouchard are a bit of an awkward fit, but they can produce enough offense, especially when McDavid is on the ice. Brett Kulak, a trade deadline acquisition, has been a near perfect complement for the defensively flawed Tyson Barrie. I think Edmonton's defense will play somewhere between their best and their worst, which might not be enough to spur on an upset.
Playoff Mike Smith put in a good account for himself against the Kings. He made some blunders, but as a whole, he performed very well. I'm skeptical that he can match up with Markstrom, but if he can outplay the Swede and cut out the mistakes from his game, the Oilers are going to prevail in the Battle of Alberta.
This is playoff McDavid time. This will be the series that seals Edmonton’s superstar as the best athlete in North American sports. The Oilers’ depth and defense could struggle, but McDavid makes that a minor concern. He’s the main reason why I'll pick the Oilers to be Canada's last standing team in the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs.
Prediction: Edmonton wins in 7
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK, NATURAL STAT TRICK AND NHL.com
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