Sidney Crosby takes a shot on Igor Shesterkin (Emilee Chinn, Getty Images)
Jeez, we have an unholy amount of recent prediction articles on the Sincere Sports blog.. Not only did I just write my NBA second round predictions, but the Champions League semifinals are coming up soon. Coupled with what should be a nice, juicy NHL article, I'll be working overtime on my blog for the next couple of days.
While I watch a decent amount of basketball and football (soccer), hockey has always been my forte. If there is ever a time where I will ace my predictions, it's right now. The opportunity that I've been presented with is a good time to make myself look like a genius.
Unfortunately, NHL playoffs are incredibly difficult to predict. When I was researching for my NBA first round article, I was stunned at how few upsets there had been in the last half-decade. The NHL is much different, as there are consistently a couple of matchups that only the savviest of fans can nail down.
Either way, I'm going to take my best shot at it, because that's what we do over here. I'm going to examine all 8 playoff series and analyze how each team can advance.
Ready? Let's go!
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Florida Panthers (A1) vs Washington Capitals (WC2)
Alex Ovechkin (Patrick Smith, Getty Images)
Despite the countless memes mocking the Leafs for not winning a playoff series since 2004, the Panthers' lack of postseason success is even more jarring. They haven't won a series since 1996, their third year as a team, when they went all the way to the Stanley Cup final. Could this be a repeat of that? It's possible, but they need to get past a Washington team that are no slouches.
The Caps haven't been underdogs for a very long time. It's possible that it galvanizes them to defeat what is a deeply flawed Panthers team. However, they've had three consecutive unceremonious first-round exits and this team seems primed to prepare for a rebuild in the near future.
Per 60, Washington have generated 12 fewer shots than Florida has, which doesn't bode well for an upset. However, even if this matchup looks one-sided on paper, Washington can flip that script. They are very good at getting quality opportunities and their power play has had a major improvement in the last month. In the last month, the Caps's xG with the man advantage is higher than Florida's. Alex Ovechkin suffered a recent injury against the Leafs, but it's expected that he'll be back for Game 1. Florida's defense is porous enough that Ovi will get open looks and he is a good enough player to finish on those chances. It looked like Ovechkin was fighting an injury to end the season, but concerns about his health still remain. Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson can carry a bit of the offensive load for a Ovechkin at 90%, but they stand little chance of an upset if their star can't get it going.
The Capitals are strong on defense and they arguably have a better top-6 than the Panthers do, especially if Aaron Ekblad, their lead blueliner, misses time. John Carlson once again had a very productive season. Rookie Martin Fehervary hasn't completely crumbled on top-line duties. Washington's shutdown pair of Dmitry Orlov-Nick Jensen is very good and I consider both Orlov and Jensen to be among the league's must underrated players. The Capitals' D will need to be strong, as their goaltending is a huge weakness. Both Vitek Vanecek and Ilya Samsonov have posted sub-.895 save percentages in the last month. Against a team as offensively adept as Florida, that can't continue.
The Panthers deservedly won the President's Trophy as the league's best regular season team. They have legitimate stars on their top-3 lines. Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau are both impactful MVP candidates for the Cats. On the third line, Sam Reinhart has had a career-year to balloon the third line to unimaginable heights. Florida' top-9 is filled to the brim with secondary threats, like Claude Giroux, Carter Verhaeghe, Anthony Duclair and former Leaf Mason Marchment. Florida's power play isn't great, but most of postseason hockey is spent at even strength, where the Panthers are elite.
On defense, Florida has some problems. If Ekblad can't return for this series, there will be a major weakness with this group. However, Mackenzier Weegar, Gustav Forsling and Ben Chiarot can help ease the pain of not having Ekblad. Once Ekblad does return, this series could be a wrap, as he has been a top-5 defenseman in the league this season, excelling in both ends.
Florida's goaltending situation is one to keep an eye on. Sergei Bobrovsky has finally started to pay off the rich contract that Florida gave him, but rookie goalie Spencer Knight has started to heat up. Remember that Knight outplayed "Bob" in last's year postseason. If Bobrovsky falters, Florida have a great second option.
This should be a simple victory for the Panthers. However, I can see the Caps making this difficult. They are a bit more physical than Florida, which is an advantage in the playoffs. If Aaron Ekblad misses the first two games, I could see Washington stealing a couple games against a mentally fragile Panthers team, but anything other than a Panthers victory would be quite stunning.
Prediction: Florida wins in 6
Toronto Maple Leafs (A2) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (A3)
The NHL's flawed playoff system often casts two teams that have no business being ousted early together. This applies to the series between the Maple Leafs and the Lightning. Both of these teams are excellent and they each deserve a long playoff run for different reasons.
Toronto can feel particularly pained by this matchup. Led by two superstars in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, the Leafs were an offensive juggernaut en route to their best ever regular season. However, the biggest worry for this team isn't even the defending Cup champs on the other side of the ice. The Leafs' biggest enemy is themselves.
In 2022, the Leafs were objectively a better team than the Lightning. Their special teams, Corsi, chance generation and even chance prevention are all among the league's elite, whereas Tampa was middling in those respective statistics. The difference between these two teams are the intangibles. Though Toronto GM Kyle Dubas has done his best to add veteran presence in the form of players like Jason Spezza and Mark Giordano, the Lightning have a better idea on how to win than the Leafs do.
Toronto's worry in recent years has been team defense, but on paper, that shouldn't be a weakness for them in this series. Though Tampa Bay's Victor Hedman is head and shoulders above any blueliner the Leafs possess, there is a legitimate argument that Toronto possesses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best defensemen in this series (Morgan Rielly, Giordano, TJ Brodie). Defense won't be as big of an issue for Toronto this series as it has been, but we all know the real separators in this series.
The basic fact is that if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner play as well as they have in the last few months, the Leafs will likely win this series. Tampa are a bit more vulnerable than they have been in the past two years. But Matthews and Marner have never really put together a defining playoff series. You'd argue that they are due, but it's equally possible that this duo simply aren't postseason performers. They'll need to be to solve Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Though "Vasy" had a tame season by his high standards, he has an extra gear in the playoffs. If Leafs fans thought that Carey Price was superhuman in the postseason last year, consider this stat. In 22 games of playoff action last season, Price saved 12.3 goals above expected. That ranked second among all goalies. You can probably guess who number 1 is, but I bet you'll be stunned at just how many goals saved above expected Vasilevskiy had. The Tampa goalie had 26.6 GSAx in 23 games last postseason. That's more than double Price's haul. He's ridiculous and will almost certainly be the great equalizer in this series.
But it isn't just the netminder that poses a threat to Toronto. Nikita Kucherov, Steve Stamkos and Brayden Points is a terrifying trio on offense. Kucherov and Stamkos have been dominant in the last few weeks of the season to seal third place in the Atlantic. Kucherov's red-hot form has also contributed to Tampa Bay's power play getting back to their best. Per 60 minutes, Kucherov's 4.41 points is third in the NHL, behind just Calgary's Johnny Gaudreau and Florida's Jonathan Huberdeau. Toronto's defense and penalty kill are going to have a tough job ahead of them.
Tampa's bottom-six is possibly their biggest strength over Toronto, not counting the Vasilesvkiy-Jack Campbell comparison. Since Toronto don't have Michael Bunting and Ondrej Kase in the lineup, their forward depth suffers. Tampa Bay, by comparison, can roll out 4 excellent lines; the Leafs can probably only roll out 3, at least until Kase is back. The Lightning's physical and effective fourth-line of Patrick Maroon, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Corey Perry is a major mismatch against Toronto's unit of Colin Blackwell-Jason Spezza-Wayne Simmonds.
The data favours the Leafs, but Tampa Bay has the size advantage and the experience of prior playoff runs. It seems likely that they will doom my favourite team to a 6th consecutive first-round exit, though this one will hopefully be close.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins in 7
Carolina Hurricanes (M1) vs Boston Bruins (WC1)
Vincent Trocheck and Brad Marchand (Steve Babineau, Getty Images)
The Carolina Hurricanes absolutely dominated the Boston Bruins in the regular season, winning every single game with a combined score of 16-1. But for various reasons, this series is expected to be among the closer ones of the first round.
The Bruins are the picture of consistency in the NHL. They seem to find a way out of the first round every year, even in dire circumstances. They struggled against Carolina this season, but they know exactly how to tame the beast that is playoff hockey. They are clearly a more physical team than the Canes, which bodes well for their chances in the playoffs. They also have a much more assured goaltending situation than Carolina.
This will be an intriguing battle of systems. Boston can shut out quality scoring chances better than any team in the league, whereas Carolina can create high danger opportunities more often than anybody else.
Boston definitely are the better team in terms of forwards. While an unexpected change of the lineup structure (breaking up the Perfection Line) did help, they don't have the sheer amount of difference makers that the Hurricanes do. Nevertheless, the star power that each of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak possesses surpasses that of any Canes player. Though this trio is separated now to opt for a more balanced attack, they can all hurt Carolina with their tremendous offensive gifts. Not only that, but Marchand and Bergeron are an elite defensive duo. They possessed 70% of the expected goals in their minutes together and conceded just 1.47 xG per 60, easily the best mark of any duo in the NHL. Boston probably have the weaker bottom-six, but their top offensive threats are more dangerous than anybody the Hurricanes can throw out.
Boston has a stacked defensive group and they aren't the only one in this series. The battles between these two bluelines will be a must-watch for any hockey fan. For Boston in particular, the acquisition of Hampus Lindholm has really helped already. It gives Boston an amazing top-4 of Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy, Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo. These guys are great on offense and defense.
But it may still be the Hurricanes who hold the edge on defense. Jaccob Slavin and Tony DeAngelo is a perfect top pairing, mixing Slavin's great defensive savvy with DeAngelo's obvious offensive gifts. Carolina's second pair of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce is quick and hard to play against. The so-called Corsi Canes control play unbelievably well and they prevent the threat of volume shooting that Boston possesses.
On offense, Carolina has the ever-underrated Sebastian Aho. Andrei Svechnikov is a world-class winger partner and youngster Seth Jarvis has taken like a duck to water when placed alongside Aho and Svechnikov. Their second line is led by Teuvo Teravainen and Vincent Trocheck. Max Domi is getting set for a good chance to test his grit in the playoffs. However, this top-6 isn't comparable to Boston's. Luckily for them, their bottom-six is definitely a strength. Boston's forward depth is a weakness, but Carolina have players like Martin Necas, Jordan Staal, Nino Neiderreiter and Jesper Fast. Those players can all provide tertiary scoring to give Boston fits.
Goaltending will be the major battle here. Frederik Andersen of Carolina is currently injured, but he should make it back. Backup goalie Antti Raanta is his deputy, and though he is a level below Andersen, he's a very capable goaltender. Meanwhile, Boston have Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman, both of whom have been average this season. It will be interesting to see which goalies fare better.
Currently, Boston are getting more steam and are getting picked by most experts in this series. But Carolina have a deeper team, home-ice advantage and their goaltending demise is being grossly overexaggerated. Give me the Hurricanes in 7.
Prediction: Carolina wins in 7
New York Rangers (M2) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (M3)
As a neutral fan, this is the series that I will be keeping my eye on the most. These two teams contrast in almost every way. The Rangers are red-hot, while the Penguins are ice-cold. The Rangers are built from the net out, while the Penguins rely more on their capability of outscoring opponents than their defense. The Rangers are a mean and physical team, whereas Pittsburgh is speedy and skilled. All this should spell a very fun series for us to watch.
New York should feel confident heading into this series. Not only do they have the Vezina Trophy favourite manning the crease, their play-driving as a team has also been much improved since their ambitious trade deadline. New York has achieved a new gear in the last month, notably chasing down the Hurricanes for the Metropolitan Division title. Their poor 5-on-5 numbers on a season-long basis have been much improved as coach Gerard Gallant has opted for a rush-based offense.
It's obvious that the most important player in this series is Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers goalie has been saving games all season and if he can continue that against Pittsburgh, New York will be heavy favourites.
What could be worrying for the Rangers is their forward depth. Though their top-6 is quite talented, an injury to deadline acquisition Tyler Motte leaves New York with a much weaker 4th line than Pittsburgh. Though teams can usually get away with giving their stars more minutes in the playoffs, New York can't afford to lose every single minute against Pittsburgh's depth forwards.
Pittsburgh have been struggling in a big way over the last month. Their defense is in the midst of a particularly concerning slump. Kris Letang, who had been a decent defender so far this season, is having a tough month with 2.76 xG against per 60 since March. Compare that with New York's dominant top pair of Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, it becomes even more obvious that Letang simply must be better here. Normally, Pittsburgh's starting goalie, Tristan Jarry, can cover up some of the defensive miscues. However, Jarry is injured and unlikely to play until late in the series, leaving the distinctly average Casey DeSmith between the pipes for the Pens. That's a huge discrepancy and it matters a lot.
Thus, it will be up to Pittsburgh's offense to get them the series win. I do think they're up to the task. One can never bet against Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, while players like Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust have both taken leaps this season.
New York have more star power than Pittsburgh, even if the Penguins do have a top-5 player in the league in Sidney Crosby, But the Rangers' depth concerns me. I don't think it will crop up against DeSmith and Pittsburgh, but it should be a worry for Rangers fans.
Prediction: New York wins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Colorado Avalanche (C1) vs Nashville Predators (WC2)
This one won't be close. Then Predators blew a 4-goal lead against the Arizona Coyotes on the last day of the season to assure that they would face the Avalanche in Round 1. Not only that, but their MVP this season, goaltender Juuse Saros, will miss the entire first-round with a lower-body injury.
Colorado are a well-oiled machine that still have the best chance at a Cup of any team in the playoffs. Despite dealing for injuries all season, the Avs barely missed out on the President's Trophy to the Florida Panthers. They are an elite offensive team, an elite defensive team and they have an elite goalie to back it up.
Colorado's forwards are frightening. As a collective group, they rack up shots on goal at a scary rate. Their shot quality is still a bit lacklustre for their high standards, but now that they have the whole group raring to go, that should change. Their top-6 is the scariest in the league by some distance. After GM Joe Sakic addressed their bottom-six at the trade deadline, they also have the necessary forward depth to wipe the floor with Nashville. Their top trio of Mikko Rantanen-Nathan MacKinnon-Gabriel Landeskog cannot be matched. They have a 58% expected goals rate together this season. Nazem Kadri will undoubtedly be a storyline here. After his breakout season of 87 points in 71 games (a 100-point pace), he is talented enough to make a difference in the non-top line minutes. Of Nashville's bottom-9 forwards, only Ryan Johansen and Tanner Jeannot come anywhere near him in terms of impact. However, he has a long history of postseason suspensions and if he gets kicked out again, Colorado will lose a major difference-maker.
Defensively is where Colorado establish themselves as a contender. Cale Makar and Devon Toews were both top-10 defensemen in the league this season. Cale Makar might win the Norris Trophy for league's best defenseman. The Avs have a top-5 mark in terms of xG against in the NHL this season, so even if they had an average goalie, they'd still be a very good defensive output. Luckily for them, they have a world-class netminder in Darcy Kuemper. After paying a fortune for Kuemper in the offseason, the former Coyotes goalie rewarded Sakic's faith with an excellent season. Since returning from injury in December, Kuemper has a sparkling .927 save percentage and has saved 22.7 goals above expected. Headlined by one of the best players in the league in Makar, Colorado have a defensive unit that can stop elite teams, and Nashville aren't an elite team.
Makar isn't the only Norris-calibre player in this series. Nashville's Swiss D-man Roman Josi is Makar's greatest competition for the award. Without Saros, the burden falls on Josi to dominate this series for Nashville. It's definitely possible. Nashville have forever been known as a nurturing ground for defensemen to reach their potential, so Josi won't be alone in his efforts to stop Colorado's runaway offense. Players like Dante Fabbro, Mattias Ekholm and Alex Carrier are all above-average players at suppressing chances. But Nashville has to score to steal games in this series.
Nashville had a whopping two players with stellar offensive seasons, compared to Colorado's six. But we can't rule out Filip Forsberg or Matt Duchene immediately. Both players scored 40+ goals this season and had over a point-per-game. However, other than those two, the Preds are a bit bare. Mikael Granlund is still a good passer and rookie Tanner Jeannot has been excellent. Unfortunately, that's it.
Due to Saros' injury, Nashville will have to field David Rittich, a below average goalie in this series. Saros is a game-changer, leading the NHL in steals this season. However, the drop-off to Rittich is enormous and it makes me confident in saying that this will be a sweep, even if Nashville is often a hostile place to play road games.
Prediction: Colorado wins in 4
Minnesota Wild (C2) vs St. Louis Blues (C3)
Alex Goligoski and Ivan Barbashev (Rick Ulreich, Getty Images)
This is another one of the series that I'm most looking forward to. These two teams flat-out aren't the best of friends and it should spell a physical, hard-fought set of games.
The mental aspect can't be underrated for the Minnesota Wild. They've gone 2-5-4 in the last 2 years against the Blues and this is a major go-for-it year. Due to the Ryan Suter and Zach Parise buyouts, the Wild will be in cap hell next season, so this is their best chance to go all-in for a Stanley Cup. That pressure can get to a young group (just look at the recent Maple Leafs teams).
The Wild are an excellent defensive group. On a season-long basis, their 2.07 xG against ranks second in the league. Over the past month, they've been even better, conceding just 1.98 xG per 60. Marc-Andre Fleury and Cam Talbot are both good or even great goalies, but they have barely been challenged recently, due to Minnesota's defensive superiority. The Wild's defensive group, led by Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba, are going to need to force shots from the outside against a Blues team that has the highest shooting percentage in the NHL this season.
The other advantage that Minnesota possesses in this series is star power. At 5-on-5, the Wild have far more offensive game-breakers than St. Louis does. Minnesota's best player is Kirill Kaprizov, who had 47 goals and 108 points this season. He'll be charged with leading his team to victory. While that may be a tough burden to shoulder, the Russian has only ever shown hints that he is capable of it. Mats Zuccarello, who had a career year alongside Kaprizov, is another player that the Blues can hardly match. The real X-factor here is Kevin Fiala. The Swiss winger has developed immediate chemistry with American rookie Matthew Boldy. Since Boldy's call-up, Fiala ranks in the top-10 in the league in points. St. Louis don't have any second-liners who can match Fiala.
What the Blues do possess is an elite power play. While it's true that most of the game is played at 5-on-5 and penalties are less likely to be called in the postseason, the Blues' power play will be skating circles around Minnesota's mediocre penalty kill. St. Louis are an elite offensive team with the man advantage, because their puck movement is so good and their forward barely hold onto the puck for more than a few seconds. I wonder if that can translate to even strength play when it matters.
While Minnesota's goaltending has been super steady since the trade deadline, Ville Husso of St. Louis is still the most likely player to steal the series. The goalie has knocked Jordan Binnington out of the crease and has seized the starter's job. Husso will know he is playing for a big paycheck and he is talented enough to give the Blues a fighter's chance.
While the Blues are a really talented offensive team with a good goalie, I expect they will be outmatched by Minnesota's superstars and defensive depth. I'm sticking with my gut and picking the Wild.
Prediction: Minnesota wins in 6
Calgary Flames (P1) vs Dallas Stars (WC1)
Calgary gets a grudge match against the Dallas Stars after Dallas sent the Flames home early in the 2019 playoffs. This iteration of the Flames is much more mature and talented. They have a clear path towards the Stanley Cup. Let's see if they can put their past sins behind them and get past the Stars.
The Flames were widely expected to be a playoff beast. They play physical hockey, don't concede many chances and have a goalie who is unstoppable at his best. They are deep at every position. Darryl Sutter's team fits the mould of a Stanley Cup champion.
The Flames' forwards should easily outclass Dallas. Though the Stars have an elite first line, Calgary's top trio is even better. Johnny Gaudreau would be a deserving Hart Trophy winner in any season that didn't have Auston Matthews scoring 60 goals. Down the middle, Calgary has some great players that influence the game subtly. Players like Mikael Backlund and Calle Jarnkrok aren't appreciated enough for their defensive brilliance. However, it is the first line that is Calgary's most deadly weapon. Not only has Gaudreau been unstoppable, Matt Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm both had career seasons on both ends of the ice.
On the blueline, GM Brad Treliving's good work is all over the place. Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson have gone from unheralded young guys to legit top pairing defensemen. Oliver Kylington and Chris Tanev are great at suppressing chances. Nikita Zadorov and Erik Gudbranson make a physical third pairing with lots of experience. Add that to the pedigree of Jakob Markstrom in goal during a season in which he posted a sterling .922 save percentage and led the league in shutouts, you can see why Calgary are the favourites to end Canada's long Cup drought.
Their opponents in the first round are a very top-heavy Dallas Stars roster. This Stars team has very lacklustre offensive metrics and their scoring struggles over the last month don't bode well for a matchup against a top-notch defense.
However, Dallas does have their top line. Joe Pavelski-Roope Hintz-Jason Robertson all complement each other perfectly. The rest of Dallas' forward corps barely surpasses replacement level, so the top line will need to pull off the herculean task of outperforming Calgary's top line. Something I've noticed in Stars games this year is that they often go long stretches of looking borderline incompetent offensively before one of their stars makes magic happen and gets Dallas on the board.
Dallas' defense is definitely where they thrive. The Stars have an elite penalty kill and over the last month, they are 6th in the league in terms of xG against. Miro Heiskanen is a true number 1 defenseman. Ryan Suter has been a capable partner for Miro, as Dallas score more and concede less when Suter is on the ice. Esa Lindell and John Klingberg have worked well together, due to their contrasting styles. Against a deep Flames team, Lindell-Klingberg will need to prove they are capable of reaching similar levels to the Stars' top pair.
In net, the Stars have Jake Oettinger, who has done admirably with the cards he was dealt, but it was probably not much more than a slightly above-average goalie at this stage of his career. Don't expect him to singlehandedly steal this series for Dallas.
The Flames are a well-oiled machine and the Stars are arguably the worst team (when fully healthy) of any club in the postseason. The Stars have had the Flames' number before, but it'd be a real upset to see coach Jim Nill lead his team past Sutter's Flames.
Prediction: Calgary wins in 5
Edmonton Oilers (P2) vs Los Angeles Kings (P3)
Dustin Brown (Graham Stokes, Getty Images)
If there is a year for the Edmonton Oilers to do some real playoff damage, it's this one. After appointing Jay Woodcroft as their new head coach in early February, Edmonton has gone 26-9-3, the third-best record in the league in that time. They are absolutely on fire and are capable of doing some legit damage during this playoff run.
The Kings, on the other hand, have been stumbling somewhat recently. They are probably just hoping for some good first-round experience, as making the playoffs is already considered as exceeding expectations.
In the last month, Edmonton's 5-on-5 game has been drastically different than it was under Dave Tippett. This team no longer needs to rely upon chance generation on the power play to win games; they are a true even-strength machine.
The Oilers' defense and goaltending have also seen drastic upturns in fortune since Woodcroft was brought in. Edmonton had a very tentative situation in net, with the possibility of Mikko Koskinen being the starter for game 1 scaring many fans. But Mike Smith has seized control with a .936 save percentage and 15.7 goals saved above expected in his last 15 games. Add to that a successful playoff resume and it's not outrageous to claim that the Oilers have the advantage in net heading into this series.
However, we all know that it's Edmonton's forwards that make them heavy favourites in this series. In terms of depth, these teams have equal value in their bottom-six, but Los Angeles simply doesn't have the star power to match up with the Oilers. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are both top-5 players in the NHL. When separated, they'll be a lot for a Los Angeles defense that is missing Drew Doughty through injury. If Woodcroft decided to put them together for several shifts, this duo can dominate with the puck. My main reason why I think people are sleeping on Edmonton is McDavid's newfound defensive ability. He has been racking up takeaways at a rate only behind Auston Matthews (and me, of course). McDavid becoming a decent defensive forward means that he will be playing heavier minutes and Edmonton's depth issues won't be as much of a worry as they have previously been.
The Kings have two very good defensive centers who will need to be excellent in this series to keep McDavid and Draisaitl's impacts to a minimum. If Anze Kopitar and Philip Danault outwork Edmonton's star duo, the power dynamic instantly shifts in L.A.'s favour. Danault, in particular, has been a godsend for the Kings. As a Leafs fan, I watched him lock up Auston Matthews for 7 games last year and he's improved pretty significantly since then. It's not outrageous to assume that Draisaitl may be more muted, due to Danault's presence. What worries me about Los Angeles' chances is their chance generation.
Since Doughty is out, the Kings' blueline will need to play defense by committee. Though the team does have some good puck-movers on D, coach Todd McLellan will almost certainly focus all his team's effort on nullifying the Oilers' stars, rather than trying to outscore them in 6-5 games. The Kings don't have a player like Evander Kane or Jesse Puljujarvi, who can produce secondary offense very well.
Both of these teams have been criticized for a lack of depth in the past, but neither of them are a one-line team anymore, due to some subtle team-building. These teams have pretty decent defensive groups and experienced goaltenders in Mike Smith and Jonathan Quick, respectively.
This Oilers team is finally very good even when McDavid is resting. The Kings are all about making hockey difficult on opposing stars, which has proven to be a sustainable method of success in past postseasons. Edmonton are deservedly the favourites here, but L.A. might pose a challenge to Woodcroft's group.
Prediction: Edmonton wins in 6
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK, EVOLVING HOCKEY AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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