Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum (David Butler II, USA Today)
And then there were 4. The entertaining conference semifinals came to an end yesterday to set the stage for the third round of the 2022 NBA Finals.
In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics knocked off the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks to set the stage for a repeat of the 2020 Conference Finals with the Miami Heat.
Out West, the veteran Golden State Warriors are up against an up-and-coming Dallas Mavericks squad. That's one of the most fascinating matchups I've seen in a while.
In my latest predictions, I got so close to predicting the stunning Mavs upset. I speculated that Dallas had a legitimate chance to knock off the Phoenix Suns, but I wasn't brave enough to choose them. The upset that I picked was for the Bucks to handle the Celtics in 7, but Boston reversed a 3-2 deficit to advance.
The other two were right on the money. In total, I've gone 9/12 in my NBA playoff predictions, which I'd argue is pretty reasonable. Let's add to that, shall we?
Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
The bubble was a weird time. The Los Angeles Lakers were NBA champions. TJ Warren and Jamal Murray looked like the best players in the league. The whole postseason was played at Disney. But if there is one thing that the bubble taught us, it's that the Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat are both very good basketball teams.
At the time, these two Eastern powerhouses were written off. "Oh, well, the bubble doesn't count; that had an asterisk," was what many NBA fans were declaring. Clearly not, because two years later, they are both proving themselves to be the cream of the crop in the East.
These franchises took hard looks in the mirror and reassessed why so many people were dismissing them as bubble successes. They got more physical. They simultaneously found way to become more experienced and younger. They've both remained very capable and able to rebuild.
But now, only one can prevail. This will likely be a very defensive series between two veteran teams. It won't be as good of a watch as the other series, but for basketball nerds, there will be some smart plays on display here.
Miami will be relying a lot on Jimmy Butler to carry the offensive load for the Heat in this series. Bam Adebayo will have to channel most of his effort onto the defensive end, as there is no way that Miami can lose the battle in the paint during this series. Tyler Herro, the NBA 6th Man of the Year, hasn't been playing up to his usually high standards. He's averaged less than 15 PPG in the playoffs so far. That won't cut it on the offensive end. Maybe Kyle Lowry will finally get healthy and coach Erik Spoelstra will be able to field a more efficient unit with him in the 1 spot. If Lowry is still nursing his injury, it's hard to believe that Gabe Vincent will be able to lead Miami to victory as their starting point guard.
Miami obviously has a lot of good guards off the bench. PJ Tucker can guard just about any position. Duncan Robinson can kill you if you let him get hot. Max Strus had a couple of notable performances against Philadelphia.
Defensively, Miami are one of the few teams who can match up against Boston. They are very aggressive. Their switchability and defensive schemes make it difficult to channel individual efforts into one area of the floor. They are really good at neutralizing star players, so we are going to learn a lot about Jayson Tatum in this series. Boston's role players will be forced to step up here.
In the Game 7 against the Bucks, it was Boston's depth that got it done. Payton Pitchard, Grant Williams, Derrick White and Al Horford have all found ways to have an impact in the postseason. If they can keep having positive impacts, Boston are going to be able to overwhelm the Heat. While Boston's offense runs primarily through Tatum and Jaylen Brown, those players need the guys around them to make shots.
However, at the end of the day, all will come down to Tatum. If he significantly outplays Butler, the Heat have no chance. If he isn't ready to run the floor 40 minutes a game in the Conference Finals, Butler could outplay him and this will be much closer.
I really think that Boston are the best team still remaining in the NBA playoffs. They can beat anybody on their day. The defense is suffocating and the offense is jelling at the right time. They are the odds-on favourites currently.
However, Miami aren't here for no reason. If this goes to a Game 7, and I think it will, Miami will have the advantage of an elite coach in Erik Spoelstra and the home crowd on their side. A healthy Kyle Lowry will be there to spark the offense and defense.
Boston almost threw the series against a Milwaukee Bucks team missing their second scoring option. A fully healthy Miami team won't make the same mistakes that the Bucks did in that series. I predict that the Miami Heat will make the NBA finals for the second time in three years.
Prediction: Miami wins in 7
Golden State Warriors v Dallas Mavericks
The matchups in this series are going to be so fascinating. I'll be keeping both of my eyes on these two teams in this series.
On one side, Jason Kidd's much-improved defense is going to face their biggest challenge of the season against an elite offensive team in the Warriors. On the other, I'm not overly sure that Golden State themselves can keep Dallas' top perimeter players from wreaking havoc and creating all over. It's going to be a lot of fun to watch these two teams of old and new battle it out together.
Golden State are the favourites right here, but I think Dallas' upset of the Suns proves we can no longer sleep on the Mavs. My worry with the Warriors is that they are a bit thin. Whereas Dallas have players like Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell and Reggie Bullock who can hurt the Warriors in many ways, Golden State doesn't have that luxury. The drop-off from the Warriors' starting 5 to their bench is pretty massive.
The Warriors are soon going to have to find somebody who can guard Luka Doncic. Playoff Luka is a different beast and he's one of the best postseason performers of all-time, even in his tender age. The Warriors don't have a true stopper for Luka. They have an underrated team defense, since everybody buys into the effort. But unless Steve Kerr wants to drag Draymond Green out to the perimeter for half of the game, Luka is going to be able to dominate his opponents.
On offense, the Warriors are still excellent. Klay Thompson is finally starting to build some rhythm. Jordan Poole is showing his sky-high potential; he can score from just about anywhere on the floor. But the guy who Dallas needs to watch out for is the guy who teams have had to look out for since the early 2010s.
Stephen Curry still hasn't had a signature game in these playoffs. There's no way that doesn't continue. He seems like the most likely player to go absolutely ballistic in one of these games. He can steal a game for the Golden State Warriors singlehandedly. If these series goes the distance, Curry is going to be more motivated than ever. He's so good that it's entirely possible that he simply nails every single shot.
Previously, I mentioned Dallas' depth. Luka is good enough at this sport that as long as Dallas can win most of the minutes when the Slovenian is off the floor, they are going to give Golden State some difficulties. Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie are going to have to continue to put together magical performances. If those two guards can be good enough to give Dallas a world-class three guard attack, it won't matter that Golden State have a high collective defensive IQ. They'll be constantly swarmed by Dallas' triple prong offense and it's going to be a real battle in the end.
I really want the Mavericks to win. They're not just a team on the rise; they are ready to compete immediately. But the Warriors are a well-oiled machine. Golden State have more experience. If they can limit turnovers, they can sweep Dallas away. Doncic is a generational talent, but I truly think it will take more than that to beat a Warriors team that are deadly when they can settle into a groove. Since the end of the season, they've been finding that groove.
Dallas can keep most of the games close, but they don't have the killer instinct yet. Their opponents absolutely do and it's time to use it.
Prediction: Golden State wins in 6
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