The first line hang their heads in shame (Steve Russell, Getty Images)
Hollow. That's how I felt after my favourite hockey team, the Toronto Maple Leafs, lost their sixth consecutive first round elimination game. Despite the team's best effort in two decades, the outcome was the same: failure.
Here are my 5 takeaways from a heartbreaking loss on Toronto's home turf.
1. Curses
I just don't understand it. I simply cannot wrap my head around the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs, a historic franchise with 13 Stanley Cups, has not won a playoff round since 2004. For goodness' sake, the Buffalo Sabres have won a series more recently than the Leafs have, despite not even making the playoffs for 11 years. Jack Fraser of JFresh Hockey, used Dom Luszczszyn's data to calculate the odds of the Leafs losing 5 consecutive winner take-all games. The probability of losing all of those games is a measly 0.0036%, equating to 1 in 27 778.
It's almost like Dr. Strange calculated every universe and this is the only one of over 27 000 possibilities that has led to this much pain.
I don't know if it's the Harold Ballard curse, the Hillman Hex or some other garbage, but I'm beginning to think that curses are real. The league's largest fanbase has been subjected to a lifetime of agony. I have never seen success in the playoffs in my lifetime. You'd think that at some point, this team could accidentally stumble to a series victory. Nope. Here we are, 18 years after the last series victory, and there is still nothing to celebrate.
One of these days, the Maple Leafs will win a series. I sincerely hope that all this pain and suffering will make that feel even sweeter. In the meantime, though, tears are the only cure.
2. Run It Back
It sounds wild to stay the course with a core that hasn't constantly disappointed time and time again. But I meant it when I said the Leafs were going to win a series in the near future. This is a team on the run. I sincerely don't think that the Leafs' stars will leave the city until they finally take it upon themselves to win a series. Admittedly, I am pro-Dubas, but I must say that the Leafs' best options are Kyle Dubas and Sheldon Keefe. If ownership decides to take drastic changes either with the roster or with the management, I simply don't see how it could benefit the organization.
I know Barry Trotz is on the market and I know that Dubas still has yet to oversee a playoff series victory. But this team is way closer to Stanley Cup contention than this result shows. I am depressed now, but I'll be more depressed if we lose our assets. Dubas is an asset; he's an above-average NHL general manager. Keefe is an asset; he has transformed this team. Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander are all assets; they are still stars in the National Hockey League.
The Maple Leafs are on the rise, even if this result says differently.
3. Most Important Offseason Ever
Okay, while I think they should run it back, it's going to be impossible to keep the exact same roster. The salary cap is only going up by $1 million. The Leafs only have 13 roster players signed for next year. That means that they need to fill in 7 or 8 roster spots with only $11 million in cap space. Jack Campbell will likely take up at least $3.5 million. The Leafs' biggest need of upgrade is a top-pairing right-handed defenseman, but that will cost at least $6.5 million against the cap. That would the Leafs with $1 million for 5 roster spots, unless some major trades are made.
That likely means that Ilya Mikheyev is gone. Ondrej Kase is prone to a RFA offer sheet. As are Pierre Engvall and Rasmus Sandin. Mark Giordano, Ilya Lyubushkin, Jason Spezza and Colin Blackwell are all unrestricted free agents.
This team could be in trouble. The Leafs cannot improve on their roster this offseason. Or can they?
Dubas needs to commit to a direction. If the Leafs think they are going to continue to be a successful regular season team for the next several years off the backs of players like Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, Dubas should feel comfortable dealing picks. If he wants to acquire a first-pair defenseman, he should go ahead and attach a draft pick to make Petr Mrazek a more enticing trade acquisition. He should feel comfortable trading picks for a player like Brandon Hagel: young, cheap, gritty, talented.
If the Leafs don't feel confident, they'll be wasting the primes of their best players, which is even more damaging than giving away draft picks. Dubas had a pretty excellent offseason last year, which will be difficult to replicate. Unless you are the Tampa Bay Lightning, not every bet you take will pay off.
The Leafs need another Michael Bunting. They need to identify the next Timothy Liljegren. They need an Ondrej Kase to pop up again. They need a cheap goalie to back up Jack Campbell.
There is going to be roster turnover. Of course there is. But the Toronto Maple Leafs have 2 years left before Auston Matthews becomes a UFA and demands over $15 million annually. This team is in desperation mode now.
4. Questionable Officiating
The Toronto Maple Leafs became the first team to lose a Game 7 when the score was 2-2. All jokes aside, the John Tavares goal should have counted. Yes, Justin Holl set a moving pick, which is illegal in hockey, but in a Game 7, when the Tampa Bay Lightning continuously got away with murder, that's a soft call. That's poor from the referees.
William Nylander got tripped when the Leafs already had a power play. It should have been a 5-on-3. There should have been a penalty call on the same play where Nick Paul opened the scoring. There should have been a holding call on Cal Foote before William Nylander's breakaway. To be blunt, the refereeing has favoured the Tampa Bay Lightning throughout this series. Yes, Toronto's special teams haven't been good enough; it's true. But, Leafs fans should be seething that in Game 6 and Game 7, game management by the officials contributed to yet another disappointment.
Of course, this is what the NHL wanted. Gary Bettman, one of the worst commissioners in NHL history, wants the game to grow in the United States. He doesn't care about hockey in Canada, the one country where we actually care about the sport. He proclaims that parity is his goal, yet he orders a referee who has never officiated a Tampa Bay loss to take charge of Game 7.
The sadness of last night masked my anger, but the sobering effects of sleep have revealed me to the feelings of anger that I am currently experiencing.
5. Lightning Going for the Three-Peat
One thing I must stress. The Toronto Maple Leafs didn't lose this series; the Tampa Bay Lightning won it. Though the Leafs controlled most of the play, Tampa Bay still found a way to win hockey games. They played well on the special teams and in Game 7, their goalie came to play.
Tampa Bay are now the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have a tough, but winnable matchup in Round 2 against the Florida Panthers. They can legitimately go all the way to the Stanley Cup final again. Whomever they meet there will be less experienced than they are.
The Lightning are already one of modern hockey's best teams. They have a chance to enter dynasty status by becoming the first team since the New York Islanders in the early 1980s to win three consecutive Stanley Cups.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK
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