A disappointed Mitch Marner (Kim Klement, USA Today)
The Leafs came out of the gates very slow in a pivotal Game 4 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Though they attempted a late rally, Toronto came out of the game with a demoralizing loss on their ledger.
Here are my 5 takeaways from the road blowout in a packed Amalie Arena.
1. The Demons Are Not Dead
The "All or Nothing" series about the 2020-21 Maple Leafs was a fun watch, but the only quote from the show that really gets reused is from the "bug-eyed walrus" himself, Paul MacLean. MacLean, the Leafs' assistant coach, said something that resonated with all fans of the team ahead of a decisive Game 7 against the Montreal Canadiens. "They've got demons in their heads. They've got them in their car. Everywhere they turn there's a demon. The biggest obstacle this team has now is themselves."
We thought this was the season for the Maple Leafs to slay their demons. They hired peak performance coach Greg Harden to instill mental fortitude in the star players' heads. Sheldon Keefe had another year to build his team. The roster had another year under their belts. When Game 1 was over, it seemed like they may have done it. They came out swinging and were rewarded with an astonishing 5-0 shutout victory. This game proved that the demons are still alive.
Toronto realistically had a chance to bury this series. While it's difficult to win two consecutive playoff games against Tampa Bay, if they started on time and kept up some good habits, they could have gone to Toronto with a commanding 3-1 lead. However, they came out looking like an AHL team for the first 10 minutes. Though the game was still technically able to be won, the Leafs' mental strength was shattered. It only got worse from there.
The Tampa Bay Lightning are now 16-0 in their last 16 games when following up a loss. They are well-versed in the ability to rebound from a poor performance. By contrast, the Leafs are 1-8 when leading a series in the Auston Matthews era. They are still being followed by their demons and while it is theoretically possible to win this series without trailing in the series, they need to win the next game. If Tampa Bay wins two consecutive games, it has become obvious that Toronto isn't ready to erase a deficit. Their opponents certainly are.
2. Sheldon Keefe Getting Outcoached
I thought that Sheldon Keefe was brilliant as a coach this season and that he deserved some Jack Adams votes. But Jon Cooper is the best head coach in the league and the gap in quality between these two guys behind the benches was evident in Game 4. Jon Cooper has somehow managed to get the upper hand matchup-wise in the last three games.
The biggest display of Cooper's matchup prowess is with Auston Matthews. Matthews and Mitch Marner are devastatingly talented players capable of taking over a series. Cooper understands that. That's why he has gone to great lengths to put the Anthony Cirelli line against the Matthews line.
The Cirelli line of Brayden Point-Cirelli-Alex Killorn has been utterly dominant against Toronto's top line. Point and Killorn add some offensive prowess, while Cirelli (a former Oshawa General) is one of the NHL's premier defensive centers.
In 17 minutes in which these two trios have been directly against each other, there has been one clear winner of the matchup game.
Per Jonas Siegel, these are the Leafs' stats in those 17 minutes.
Shot attempts for/against: 5-22
Shots for/against: 2-11
Scoring chances for/against: 3-11
High-danger shot attempts for/against: 0-4
Expected goals: 22%
That's unacceptable for a trio that was once deemed the best line in the league. Something needs to change.
Toronto will be getting home-ice advantage back and Keefe needs to use that. For anybody that may be unaware, home-ice advantage in the NHL is much more important than just having more fans. After a stoppage in play, the home team can make their substitutions after the visiting team, which will let Keefe get a chance to ice Matthews in a more favourable position. If this series does go 7 games, Keefe will have a chance to win the war.
In Game 5, Keefe should probably ice the Matthews line against the Steven Stamkos line. In limited minutes against the Stamkos line, the Matthews line has an expected goals share of 90%, compared to the paltry 22% against Cirelli and co.
Keefe will be as important as any player on the ice in the next few games. If he dictates the matchups and sends Matthews into a scenario where he can thrive, the Leafs can win this series. If not, Tampa Bay might win this in 6 games.
3. Jack Campbell Reverts to February Form
There is a world where Sheldon Keefe makes no bad decisions, Matthews and Marner play much better and the Leafs' defense stops resembling a sieve, yet the Leafs still lose. That is if Jack Campbell continues to play as poorly as he did in Game 4.
By the time, Campbell was pulled from the game in favour of Erik Kallgren, the score was 5-0. The game was out of reach. But it probably shouldn't have been. Per Natural Stat Trick, the score should have been much different.
Expected goals are an admittedly flawed stat, but they do a good job of showing basic trends in a game. Natural Stat Trick's xG model figured that the score should have been 2-1 in favour of the Lightning when Campbell was yanked.
The Steven Stamkos goal in the first period was a bit soft, but you can probably allow it. The other two goals in the first period were all on Toronto's brutal team defense. However, the Ross Colton goal that made it 4-0 should never go in on an NHL goalie.
Though the game itself wasn't all on "Soup", when you consider that the Leafs wound up scoring 3 goals in the final period, you can't help but wonder if the game would have been closer if Campbell made the simple glove save on Colton.
As I've repeatedly said, Toronto doesn't need Campbell to outplay Andrei Vasilevskiy. But he also can't play the way he did on Sunday night. Maybe Jon Cooper rattled his confidence? Either way, Soup had better find his game or this Leafs teams is doomed to another first-round exit.
4. Ticky Tacky Calls Ruining the Series
Maybe ruining is a bit harsh, since this has still been an indomitably good series, but the refereeing performance is taking me out of the games a bit. I'm not even accusing them of making bad calls against the Leafs. For example, the penalty against Nick Paul in the first period should not have been called.
My issue is that way too many penalties are being called. It's the playoffs and you have to deal with it. Players will get hit and tampered with. There is no reason for a third of the game to be spent on special teams.
The Lightning are winning the special teams battle currently, so it may seem like I'm asking for a favour, but I genuinely think this would be a more entertaining series if there were less penalties.
5. Lightning Must Build Momentum
The Lightning now need to win 2 of the next 3 games to advance in this series. If they win Game 5 in Toronto, the series might be over. Duncan Keith, the former Chicago Blackhawks defenseman, once said that momentum doesn't carry over between games in the postseason. The Leafs had better hope that's true. The Lightning had better hope they can buck the trend.
Toronto's impressive regular season mean that Tampa Bay have the disadvantage on paper. However, if they can build momentum and win two in a row, this is probably over.
When I say that Game 5 is a must-win for the Leafs, it isn't an exaggeration. They must preserve home ice advantage and take over of the matchup advantage. They need to score a goal within the first 10 minutes of the game and hope that Jack Campbell is up to snuff. If not, the Leafs will fail in their task to prove that this team is different.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK
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