Mikheyev celebrates after the empty-netter (Mark LoMoglio, Getty Images)
The Leafs retook the series lead with a stressful 5-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning that was a lot closer than the score suggested.
Here are my 5 takeaways from Toronto's Game 3 victory.
1. Soup de jour
Jack Campbell absolutely bailed out the Leafs in Game 3. In the third period, the Lightning put on sustained pressure against the Leafs' defense, who struggled to have the same excellence as they did in the previous two periods.
The obvious highlight was an absolute stunner on Steven Stamkos' power play attempt. In his typical place on the ice (just above the hashmarks), Nikita Kucherov made a beautiful pass to an open Stamkos who rifled the puck on net. Similarly to Alex Ovechkin, Stamkos had made a home in that area, rifling one-timers on net. Usually, they hit the twine. This time, though, Jack Campbell made a game-saving stop. He sprawled out to his right to keep the score at 3-2.
Campbell was expected to be the Leafs' biggest weakness in this series. Nobody would have predicted him to have outperformed Andrei Vasilevskiy. Yet here we are and that's precisely what is happening.
Campbell is at his very best when he is confident. It seems as if the shutout in Game 1 provided that boost of adrenaline. Also, the "Soup" chants that were even raining down in Tampa Bay must have given Toronto's netminder extra motivation to play to his best.
2. David Kampf is a Real Bargain
While many people point to Michael Bunting as Toronto's biggest bargain bin deal of the offseason, David Kampf is making sure that he's in that conversation. He's been probably Toronto's best third-line center in several years.
When Toronto signed Kampf as a UFA, I thought he was slightly overpaid at $1.5 million per season. I expected about 5 goals and 15 points for Kampf. I thought he would be a decent fourth-line center. Maybe he'd contribute on the second penalty kill unit.
Kampf has blown my expectations out of the water. He scored 11 goals and 26 points. He was top-5 in the NHL in short-handed goals. He became a lynchpin for a Toronto penalty kill that skyrocketed up the ladder and became a top-10 unit in the league.
He's also been a real star in the early stages of the postseason. He has two crucial goals in three games. He's been somewhat able to neutralize a devastatingly good Tampa Bay power play. He has been the early breakout star for the Leafs. If Toronto wants to pull this off, they need players like Kampf to reach heights that they may not even be capable of.
Okay, I usually don't edit these articles after they are published, but I just saw the most wild David Kampf stat. Per Nick DeSouza, Kampf has more goals in this series (2) than he has offensive zone starts (1). He has 40 defensive zone starts. Absolute legend.
3. Leafs' Depth is Outperforming Tampa Bay's Depth
The other area where the Leafs were expected to struggle against Tampa Bay was their depth. However, just as with goaltending, the Leafs seem to have narrowed the differential. The third line had a very peculiar game on Friday night. Shot attempts were 9-1 in Tampa's favour in the 6 even-strength minutes that Mikheyev-Kampf-Engvall. That third line had an xG share of the 3%. Yet you could argue that this trio was Toronto's best.
They were a very suitable safety blanket against Tampa Bay's top line. When Toronto was holding onto a tight one-goal lead, it was this trio that inspired the most amount of confidence. After the TV timeouts, Sheldon Keefe turned to this trio consistently.
Though this line didn't produce the offense that they did in the regular season (aside from two empty-net goals for Mikheyev), they prevented any dangerous opportunities against at a rate that not even the Matthews line could accomplish.
People always praise Tampa Bay's third line for their Stanley Cup runs. Losing every member of that trio in the offseason is the reason many people point to for Tampa Bay's slightly disappointing regular season. So, if Toronto can equal that performance from their top-3 lines, what would stop them from making it to the Stanley Cup final?
4. Holl Struggles in Liljegren's Place
While the Jason Spezza inclusion in the lineup was universally praised, removing Timothy Liljegren for Justin Holl was a bit of a peculiar decision. Though Liljegren had a poor Game 2, Holl couldn't justify his inclusion with his Game 3 performance.
While I just praised the Leafs' third line for rarely making me nervous when they were protecting the lead, I can't say the same for Holl. Frankly, I'm usually nervous whenever I see Holl in his own end, but in a pivotal Game 3 of a series that could separate this Leafs team from all others, it was even worse. His body positioning was quite poor, leading to a holding penalty on Brandon Hagel.
I'd expect Liljegren to reunite with Giordano in Game 4, but there is still the looming question of Rasmus Sandin. He was activated off of LTIR on Friday, so he's eligible to play now. A healthy Sandin is better than both Liljegren and Holl, so in what should be a very close Game 4, his positive impacts might convince Keefe to pick him.
My guess is Liljegren for Game 4 and then they may try Sandin in Game 5.
5. Lightning Need to Stay Out of the Box
In Game 2, Toronto's biggest issue was staying out of the penalty box. Against a lethal Tampa Bay power play, they went down early. Since they were short-handed, they couldn't manage any type of comeback in the latter stages of the third period.
In Game 3, there was a tighter whistle, but the Lightning still found themselves short-handed too often. Some silly penalties, like Patrick Maroon's delay-of-game call were costly. In a series that is expected to be dictated by special teams superiority, that is simply unacceptable.
Head coach Jon Cooper is going to need to get his guys on the same page to put up a fight in Game 4.
Teams that have a 2-1 lead going into Game 4 have a .675 series winning percentage, so history is on Toronto's side. Yet, they were also up 3-1 against a mediocre Montreal Canadiens team last season, so nothing can be discounted. Tampa Bay are undefeated in their last postseasons after a loss, so they are going to come out fighting. If Toronto can pull off the unlikely and pick up two wins in Tampa Bay, they become huge favourites for the series victory.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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