William Nylander and Alex Killorn (Kevin Sousa, USA Today)
The Tampa Bay Lightning evened up the series with a much improved game over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Here are my 5 takeaways as the Leafs suffer a tough loss at home.
1. Special Teams Will Be the Difference
The Leafs' special teams were better than Tampa Bay's in Game 1. It wasn't even close. Toronto's power play wasn't great, but the penalty kill definitely made up for it by completely neutralizing the Lightning's man advantage. Unfortunately, that wasn't the case in Game 2.
Toronto took way too many avoidable penalties (though an embarrassing refereeing job from Gord Dwyer and Francois St. Laurent didn't help) and Tampa used that to take control of the game. Toronto's discipline wasn't nearly good enough and they should have figured that holding Tampa Bay's power play to 0-5 wasn't a sustainable method of success. Hopefully that's a lesson learned for the team.
In this series, Toronto can't lose the special teams battle. They are clearly a better even strength team than the Lightning (they've outscored them 7-2 at 5-on-5 in the two games so far), so if they don't concede the war on special teams, they do have a good chance to win this series. Their penalty kill was sloppy last night, but after two games, Tampa has only outscored Toronto 3-2 when the Lightning have had the man advantage. That's a decent number. It's the power play where the Leafs really need to step up.
Toronto had the best power play in the league this season, but they came into the playoffs on a bit of a cold streak. So far in this series, they are 1-for-10, 13th among all 16 playoff teams. That has to change. The Leafs are doing damage at even strength, but to make this series as easy as possible, they need to start taking advantage of the power play. Tampa's penalty kill only had an 80.6% success rate in the regular season, so you'd expect some regression to the mean, but if the Leafs aren't go-getters, they aren't going to advance.
It's why I feel that William Nylander is the biggest X-factor in this series. Sheldon Keefe doesn't seem to have full trust in him at even strength (he played less 5-on-5 minutes than David Kampf in Game 2), so he needs to start taking advantage on the power play, where he typically thrives. Willy was a difference maker in last year's postseason, but he is yet to hit those heights. He has been fading out of games. If Nylander can add that extra consistency on the PP, Toronto has a much better shot at winning the special teams battle, or in other words, the series.
2. Depth Needs to Step Up
Something that Jon Cooper, head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning, knows better than anybody is that it takes everybody on the entire roster to buy in for a Stanley Cup run. While the two guys you want to buy in (Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews are the two leading playoff scorers in the league), it will take more than just individual brilliance to get out of the Eastern Conference this year.
The fourth line has been an area of legitimate concern. Without Kyle Clifford, Sheldon Keefe opted for a line of Ondrej Kase, Colin Blackwell, and Wayne Simmonds. They were very ineffective, getting outscored 1-0 and outshot 6-0 in just two minutes of action together. That cannot happen, even if Tampa does have an excellent fourth line. I wonder whether Clifford will get the nod in Game 3 or if Jason Spezza draws in to play his first game of this year's postseason. Possibly both?
However, it's honestly not the end of the world if your fourth line isn't performing. Sure, the ice will be tilted for about 5 minutes, which you would like to have back, but having your $11 million center failing to have any offensive impact is much worse.
John Tavares has just 2 shots at even strength his series. That must improve. Tavares isn't even playing to his traditional best defensively. Tavares was expected to be a massive part of a Leafs Cup run in the future when he signed here, but as of yet that hasn't happened. Though Tavares is an excellent player and the Leafs wouldn't be here if not for his steady play in the regular season, he needs to make an impact before that deal is up.
3. Muzzin and Brodie Looking Stable
For a team that conceded 5 goals, Toronto's defense looked fairly decent last night. However, it wasn't the usual suspects who performed well. The Rielly and Giordano pairings were just average. It was Jake Muzzin, a guy who was considered the Leafs' 7th defenseman by many fans, and TJ Brodie who have been thriving.
In 11 minutes together, the duo had an xG% of over 70%. That's huge in the context of this series. The Giordano-Liljegren pair was at just 30% in xG. If the Leafs can have three good defensive pairings, they'll have a major advantage on any of the Leafs teams from prior years. Toronto has always been known for having a lacklustre defense, but personnel-wise, this is the strongest they've been in decades.
Muzzin and Brodie are a big part of that.
4. Lineup Changes Likely Incoming
It would be stunning to see the Leafs ice the exact same lineup again on Friday night. Tampa Bay just had the edge last night and some lineup choices likely influenced that. It's tough to imagine Wayne Simmonds going out there after his horror show of a Game 2. I still think that Kyle Clifford is going to be out there, for better or worse. But it also would be surprising if Keefe and the coaching staff didn't at least try to squeeze Jason Spezza onto the fourth line.
On defense, there could also be some changes. Timothy Liljegren and Ilya Lyubushkin both had tough games on Wednesday, so there could be so me shuffling there. Justin Holl probably deserves at least a chance, but in a series that is expected to be as close as this one, they may not risk it. The more interesting query is what to do with Rasmus Sandin.
Sandin is still considered injured, but he's been practicing recently. What if Keefe dropped Liljegren and opted for Sandin to boost the PP2 unit? Could Sandin develop instant chemistry with Giordano? Is it worth the risk? I don't envy the Leafs' coaches that have to make this decision.
5. Vasilevskiy Improves Massively
I must stress this. Jack Campbell wasn't the reason the Leafs lost last night. But he wasn't at his very best and he needs to be. Andrei Vasilevskiy continued his undefeated streak after a playoff loss. "Vasy" looked much more like himself after a horrid Game 1 performance. Campbell, on the other hand, struggled to match up with his Russian adversary.
Though I preached that the special teams will be the biggest difference in this series, goaltending is not far behind. The Leafs probably need Campbell at 100% and Vasilevskiy at lower than 90% to win this series with any comfort. That didn't happen in Game 2 and it was the main difference between the two teams.
Now, the Leafs head into Tampa Bay, needing to win at least 1 of the 2 games to have any hope of winning this series. This game obviously lowered my confidence, but it's not over yet. The Leafs can't get complacent. Let's see how they respond to this loss.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK
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