Sheldon Keefe talks to Mitch Marner (John E. Sokolowski, USA Today)
The Leafs stunned the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup champions in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals.
Here are my 5 takeaways as Toronto's most complete playoff game in years leaves them with the series advantage.
1. Marner and Matthews Get the Monkey off Their Backs
In my NHL playoff previews, I said that if Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner could play up to their regular season standards, the Leafs would almost certainly win this series. We caught a glimpse of just how commanding that might be.
Marner, in particular, has been downright unacceptable come playoff time. In the last two series (against middling teams in the Columbus Blue Jackets and Montreal Canadiens), Marner hasn't scored a single goal. Well, that all changed against Tampa Bay.
Marner was a demon in Game 1. Though he only played 19 minutes, it felt like he was out there all game. He tormented Tampa Bay's power play constantly and forced the opposing PP unit to have their worst game in weeks. Aside from his elite defensive work, Marner was also a beast in the offensive zone, racking up his second career three-point game in the postseason.
His buddy, Auston Matthews, also got off on the right foot. Amid chants of "MVP!" from the most raucous Leafs crowd I've ever witnessed, Matthews started stripping pucks and leading rushes immediately. He was active defensively and he wound up scoring two goals as the cherry on top. His power play goal was a bullet and his hockey IQ allowed him to take advantage of a rare mistake from Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.
We've just completed Game 1; there is still likely a lot of hockey to be played. Literally everything good that could have happened last night did happen, and it's making me uneasy. It won't be this simple, but if the Leafs' two superstars can combine for 6 points every night, it's going to take quite the collapse to lose this series, even if they are facing a historically great Tampa Bay Lightning team.
2. Dean Chynoweth: Early Conn Smythe Favourite
Novel concept alert! What if refs actually called penalties in the playoffs? Well, that happened in Game 1 at a peculiar rate. There were 11 power plays in total, including one 4-minute man advantage for the Leafs and a 5-minute major which gave Tampa a chance on the power play.
The Leafs came out guns blazing. They'd heard the haters say they were too soft to do any damage, so they went right after Tampa Bay. This surprisingly led to penalty kill situations against the league's hottest power play team.
In the 8 games before the regular season ended, the Lightning had a stunningly high 48.3 success percentage with the man advantage. In Game 1, they went a stale 0-5, conceded a short-handed goal, and were generally out-chanced by the team that had less players. The Leafs' power play wasn't excellent either, going just 1-for-6, but they at least held the puck in the offensive zone. Tampa could barely even enter the final third of the ice.
While it was undoubtedly an awful game from Tampa's power play, we have to credit Dean Chynoweth for his work with the penalty kill. According to James Mirtle, the Leafs' penalty kill had been operating at a brutal 74.7% rate in the last 5 playoffs. This awful postseason penalty kill convinced Leafs upper management to throw a wad of cash at Chynoweth, who had been working wonders with Carolina's PK. I was initially a little skeptical that a coach solely for the penalty kill was barely making less than some head coaches around the league, but Chynoweth has proven me wrong.
Though it's unlikely that there will be this many power plays again in any game this series, killing penalties with aggression is necessary against a team as potent as the Lightning. The Leafs never backed down. Even on the 5-minute penalty kill, they were clearly the better team. In the first period, the Leafs had a 51% xG rate while short-handed, which essentially means that Toronto created more chances than Tampa did, even when they were a man down.
Alex Kerfoot was a monster on the PK. Marner was typically smooth and composed. Jake Muzzin had arguably his best game of the season. Outside of one chance where Steven Stamkos whiffed on a wide open net, Jack Campbell barely had to worry about keeping the puck from crossing the line.
3. Campbell Outduels Andrei Vasilevskiy
It’s going to take a lot for Jack Campbell to outplay Andrei Vasilevskiy in this series, but if Game 1 is any indication of what is to come, Tampa Bay might not have such a sizeable goaltending advantage after all. Not only was Campbell very comfortable in net (his defense made his job quite easy, though), but Vasilevskiy put forth a horror show.
“Vasy” had a horrid .848 save percentage. He made one silly mistake that effectively ended the game when Matthews buried the goal to put them up 5-0. There’s still time for him to right his wrongs and bring Tampa back into the series, but in a playoff format that generally favours the team that wins Game 1, Vasilevskiy had an off game at the wrong time.
In the other crease, Campbell had a fairly easy shutout. Sure, Toronto was short-handed for 1/5 of the game, but there was never much danger (aside from the aforementioned Stamkos chance) of Tampa storming back.
Campbell probably doesn’t even need to be better than Vasilevskiy this fortnight, but if he can trim the gap, the Leafs deserve to be considered favourites.
4. Clifford Sets the Tone
Immediately, it seemed like starting Kyle Clifford was a woeful lineup decision when he was almost immediately ejected from Game 1. But the ramifications of the hit that got Clifford sent out probably had a few ripple effects on the game.
Clifford absolutely blew up 20-goal scorer Ross Colton with a huge hit right on the numbers in the early stages of the first period. In the moment, I was furious. The Leafs didn’t have a lead yet and they now had to kill a 5-minute power play against a team that’s been dominating opposing penalty kill units this month. Add to that, it’s literally Clifford’s job to know the line when dishing out a hit. He gets paid a million dollars a year for his prowess to make clean, hard hits.
However, in a way that I didn’t expect, this turned the tide of the game. Once the Leafs had killed off the 5-minute major, they had all the momentum. The Lightning, winners of the last two Stanley Cups, looked lost and vulnerable. For the rest of the game, the Leafs won just about every puck battle and came out right on most hits. While it’s tough to say this all started as a result of Clifford’s hit, I don’t think that Keefe regrets inserting the veteran’s physicality in the lineup.
While a suspension is possible, as long as Clifford gets off scot-free, there is no way that Keefe does not at least consider keeping him in the lineup.
5. They're Still the Lightning
Look, we can’t pencil this series down just yet. A 5-0 victory should I still more confidence in this team, but the path will not be this easy again.
Everything went right for the Leafs tonight. Everything went wrong for the Lightning. That’s unsustainable and Game 2 should be a regression towards the mean. Andrei Vasilevskiy’s stats after a playoff loss are downright terrifying. There is no way that he has the same sort of game again. He’ll be back to his best tomorrow; there’s no doubt about it.
But the Leafs unveiled the road map. They now know what it takes to outplay Tampa Bay. That matters. A 1-0 series lead matters. While we can’t just rule out past playoff performances, the Lightning just got embarrassed by a Leafs team that looked absolutely terrific.
I’m a bit superstitious come playoff time, so you won’t hear me say that the Leafs are going to win the series, but if the Leafs keep playing the way they did in Game 1, it doesn’t matter who their opponent is. They become instant Cup contenders if that is the norm, rather than an anomaly.
Frankly, I’m excited. Get it done, Leafs.
Yeah, they’re going to lose tomorrow, aren’t they?
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND EVEOLVING HOCKEY
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
Comments
Post a Comment