Bernardo Silva (Martin Rickett, Getty Images)
It's back. The UCL action has returned and we have the two first leg matches for the Champions League semifinals this week. Thus, we all know what time it is, don't we?
I've had some mixed results with my predictions so far, but I've been proud of my insight for the matches. Let's see if we can combine good analysis with some correct predictions this time.
The two best leagues on the planet represent the four remaining teams, with Real Madrid and upstart Villarreal representing Spain, while title rivals Liverpool and Manchester City are the delegates for England.
Real Madrid versus Manchester City is a marquee matchup that is going to go down to the wire. Villarreal against Liverpool will be a close one, considering the Yellow Submarine have been giant-killers for the last 12 months.
Let's dive into the predictions.
Manchester City v Real Madrid
This is the game that neutral fans cannot miss. Manchester City have dominated English football for the last decade since their purchase by Sheikh Mansour and his associates. However, they have continued to fail at the final hurdle in their pursuit of Champions League glory. On the other hand, Real Madrid have UCL success in their DNA. The 13-time winners of the competition are almost certainly going to seal LaLiga success this season, so they'll be going no hold barred in the semis.
Manchester City are led by one of the smartest coaches in the history of the game. However, Pep Guardiola has consistently made odd choices in the late stages of the Champions League. Last year, in City's first ever UCL final, Guardiola opted to not use a holding midfielder, which let Kai Havertz wreak havoc and eventually score the winning goal. City have the talent to take home this competition and see off Madrid. However, Guardiola is often his own worst enemy. He needs to acknowledge that City has the more skilled squad and if he keeps it simple, he should advance.
The key to victory here should be simple. Stop Karim Benzema. The French international has been inevitable all season, but particularly in the Champions League. He singlehandedly allowed Real to advance past Chelsea in the last round. Benzema has scored 11 non-penalty goals on 5.7 xG (expected goals). Though Vinicius carries a threat down the left and Modric from deep, nobody can bang them in quite like Benzema. The problem is that City have a backline beset by injuries. At right-back, Kyle Walker and John Stones are both recovering from knocks, while Joao Cancelo is suspended for the first leg. This is a huge issue, especially against Real's offense.
Thus, it may fall on City's attacking players to outscore their opponents. As usual, the key to this tie is Belgian midfielder Kevin de Bruyne. KDB is impossible to mark and his chance creation is among the best in the world. de Bruyne will be at the center of everything that City manage in this game and he has a ton of riches in the attacking department to help him create.
Real Madrid are not quite the force they once were. Despite a commanding lead in their domestic league, they have been mainly been spurred on by moments of individual brilliance from Karim Benzema, Luka Modric and Vinicius Jr. The Madridistas are capable of dominant moments, but they likely won't be able to keep City from getting a stranglehold on this game. In fact, of all the teams still in the competition, Real are generating the least amount of xG of all the semifinalists with a mark of 1.6. They are a high possession team that rarely press. It's a somewhat rare breed in football these days, but it's not unlike how City play. This will be a strange clash of styles and Real may have to adapt to give themselves the best chance at victory.
As I mentioned, there are three players who will dictate this match for Madrid. Luka Modric is still bossing midfield in his late 30s and it will be interesting to see how the Croatian leads counter-attacks against City. Benzema is going to get some chances, especially with City's best right-backs injured. The return of Ruben Dias to City's defense will make it tougher on Benzema, but he is such an opportunistic striker that it would be a surprise to see him fail to score. Lastly, Vinicius is the X-factor for the Spanish club. He'll have tons of space to roam forward. The Brazilian is an exceptional dribbler and he will not be passive with the ball. If City can lock up Vini, Real become much easier to beat.
I think this match all comes down to Kyle Walker. If Walker can start at right-back, his recovery pace will allow City to be more risky with possession. If Walker isn't there, Vinicius will make something happen on the flank. These two teams have their strengths in attack, so unless Pep puts his midfielders behind the ball, expect a high-scoring match.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Real Madrid
Liverpool v Villarreal
Villarreal put themselves on the map with a very impressive defensive performance against 2020 UCL champions Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Liverpool are continuing to absolutely dominate their opponents and they have an outside shot at the quadruple.
Liverpool have the best squad in the world, per my estimation. There are threats at every position and Liverpool's high defensive line always seems to trouble opponents. On paper, they should be happy with drawing Villarreal, but it isn't that simple. I've constantly preached how underrated Arnaut Danjuma is and the Villarreal forward is going to be a handful for the Reds to deal with. Liverpool's high line restricts deadly finishers from getting into the box, but Danjuma is so quick that it's easy to imagine the Dutchman to get several opportunities to fly into dangerous areas. Villarreal are capable of frustrating their opponents defensively, but they can't advance without scoring. With Gerard Moreno likely to miss out with an injury, Danjuma is the most important player in Villarreal's squad.
Nevertheless, the Spanish club haven't gotten here based on their offense. Despite only playing 4 at the back, Villarreal have the lowest xG per shot of any team still in the competition. They've come up big against stars like Dusan Vlahovic, Robert Lewandowski and Kingsley Coman. Unfortunately for them, Liverpool's attacking trio is a different beast.
If Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp does indeed play Luis Diaz-Sadio Mane-Mohamed Salah up top, Villarreal are going to have an almighty task. The combination of pace, finishing ability and ball control that all three players possess makes them the most in-form forward group in all of football. Villarreal have done well to lock down a very good team in Bayern, but Liverpool are levels clear of even the Bundesliga champions.
Unai Emery has to stick to his guns. Even if Liverpool get off to a quick start, Emery, who has established himself as one of the best managers in Europe this season, must keep players behind the ball. Be pragmatic and dogged defensively, while engaging on the counter with Danjuma, the Flying Dutchman. Emery's game plan is simple, while Jurgen Klopp has many different options. This naturally gives Liverpool the advantage. Despite that, Villarreal cannot be underestimated.
In some ways, a direct counter-attacking style matches up well with a possession-dominant tactic. Unfortunately for Emery, Liverpool aren't just capable of keeping the ball, they are also devastating in transition. Villarreal have conceded the highest xG against per match of any semifinalist, so Liverpool will certainly get chances. Villarreal goalkeeper Geronimo Rulli will need to be epic to stop a Liverpool win here.
Though I would love to go with Villarreal here, the Reds have history and talent on their side. This will be a battle, but expect the passionate Anfield fans to cheer their squad to victory.
Prediction: Liverpool 3-1 Villarreal
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
Comments
Post a Comment