The stars of this year's UCL campaign (The Athletic.com)
It's quarterfinal time in the UEFA Champions League. Most of the titans of modern football are present this year, with Benfica being the only real surprise in the QF stage.
I'm excited to check out these matches as we narrow down the candidates for European glory. As usual in these articles, I'll be breaking down each matchup from a tactical point of view and offering my insight as a fan of the game to help everybody understand what to expect in the games over the next few days.
Let's get started!
Benfica v Liverpool
Ajax were widely tipped to replicate their 2019 UCL success and embark upon an underdog run deep into the competition. Courtesy of a Darwin Nunez header, the Eagles eliminated the Amsterdam side in a thriller of a tie. Does this mean that Benfica are now the underdogs of the tourney? On the other side of the coin are Liverpool. The Reds are widely expected to march into the semis after their great 2022 form, but if Benfica's play in Europe can continue, a shock is definitely possible.
Now there's some history between these two sides. In 2006, Liverpool, who were the reigning European champions following the Miracle of Istanbul, were drawn with Benfica. The English side were heavy favourites but Benfica prevailed 3-0 on aggregate to kick out the holders. So we can't rule out an upset. However, from a more honest perspective, this is a worst-case scenario for Benfica. Liverpool are one of the favourites for the entire competition and Benfica seem to have been punching above their weight ever since the 3-0 stunner against Barcelona in the group stages. It's been a year of turmoil for the Portuguese club. They are currently third in the Liga Portugal and they were knocked out of the League Cup by Sporting Lisbon. Interim coach Nelson Verissimo has helped steady the ship, but this is still a squad with major weaknesses. They rely on clinical finishing from their blossoming striker prospect Darwin Nunez. Nunez has announced himself this season after becoming Benfica's record signing in 2020. The 22-year old is of the same ilk as his countrymen Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. He's a towering striker who can run really well. He has outperformed his xG by 8.3 in all competitions this year, showcasing his stunning finishing ability. However, Nunez is only one man. Benfica will likely line up in a 4-1-4-1 formation with deep-lying playmaker Julian Weigl just ahead of veteran center-back pairing Jan Vertonghen and Nicolas Otamendi. Though Benfica' threat in league play usually comes from the excellent link-up play between academy graduate Goncalo Ramos and Nunez, but I expect this won't be the case here. Liverpool are too skilled for Benfica to play a possession-based game, so the Eagles will be relying on their creative flank players like Alex Grimaldo, Rafa Silva and Everton to capitalize on dead-ball scenarios and hit Liverpool on the counter. This will be a mighty task, but Benfica absolutely have a chance.
Liverpool will be wary of the 2006 defeat, but they really couldn't be happier about their luck in this draw. Jurgen Klopp's men have won 16 of their last 17 matches in all competitions and confidence will be at an all-time high in the dressing room. Their combination of firepower and titans at the back will make them a prime candidate to dispatch Benfica with haste. It's worth noting that Liverpool's focus may be on the Premier League, especially now that they have a legitimate chance to knock off Manchester City from the top pedestal. However, the Reds' embarrassment of riches means they will nevertheless be able to field a very good squad in Lisbon. Their star man is undoubtedly Mohamed Salah, but he is in a concerning patch of form currently. The Egyptian has just 1 goal in all comps since his outburst against Leeds United on February 23. Luckily for Klopp, Liverpool still have a devastating corps of Digo Jota, Luis Diaz and Sadio Mane. It would be rude to forget Roberto Firmino, also. That thre-pronged attack in Klopp's favoured 4-3-3 system isn't able to be contained by the Premier League's best, so to expect Liga Portugal's third-placed team to be able to handle it over two legs may be too heavy an order. Their rampaging full-backs Andy Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are both danger men on the flanks, giving them another weapon that Benfica will have to face. However, my confidence in Liverpool stems from their midfield. Benfica play a high-press, possession-heavy game, but Liverpool's balanced midfield will make that impossible. They have one of the best deep-sitting midfielders in world football in Fabinho. The Brazilian is the spine of this side. Around him, Jordan Henderson and Thiago counter-press like they've been doing it for years (which they have). Liverpool's offense often stems from this trio, as they can force errors, win back possession and then link up with the forwards through Firmino or Jota if he sits deep. There will be a gulf in class between these two squads.
The Champions League is all about surprises and I'm going to go with a bit of a shocker for this leg. Though I expect Liverpool to dominate nearly 60% of possession, I find it hard to believe that Nunez won't have at least a few glances at goal, whether it be due to Benfica' set-piece prowess or Goncalo Ramos' effortless chemistry with his strike partner. I'll go with an entertaining draw before the clubs go to Anfield a week later to settle the tie.
Prediction: Benfica 2-2 Liverpool
Manchester City v Atletico Madrid
Possibly the two most different clubs from a stylistic perspective in world football, Pep Guardiola's run-and-gun City side will be taking on Diego Simeone's pragmatic, defense-first Atletico team. It is a very interesting matchup between the reigning LaLiga and Premier League champs. Guardiola has the utmost respect for Simeone as a boss, but factors like an injury to star defender Jose Maria Gimenez and a very poor season from goalkeeper Jan Oblak has Atleti at their most vulnerable. Pep will be looking to seize his chance and bury Simeone's side at home.
Manchester City are, in my mind, the best club in world football currently. It's a testament to how good Liverpool have been that the Premier League title race is this close. They could assemble a whole starting XI of world-class player capable of dictating a match, but if Atletico revert to their December form, they'll only need one. Manchester City play according to Jorge Valdano's mindset: "You have to touch the ball a lot and hold it a little." The Cityzens are always passing the ball around, making it look effortless. Against a team as content with sitting deep like Atletico, Manchester City could approach the 65% possession mark in this game. They'll have plenty of chances to break through Atletico's defense, especially in such an important game for both teams, in which Simeone will abandon his ideas of Atleti's growth as a passing team. Players like Kevin de Bruyne and Bernardo Silva will set up camp in Atleti's end and wait patiently for things to break down in front of them. They constantly probe for openings and if a tear starts to emerge in les Rojiblancos' backline, City have the skill players to make them pay. Despite the matchup advantage, this is probably City's biggest test of the season. They are in somewhat uninspiring form for their sky-high standards and they are missing two key pieces of their defense. Kyle Walker and Ruben Dias will miss out here, due to suspension and injury respectively. This forces Oleksandr Zinchenko and John Stones into the team, which is definitely a downgrade. However, they have perhaps the world's best shield in Rodri, who will be charged with the role of preventing Joao Felix from breaking forward on the attack. Their lack of a striker could really hurt them here, as Phil Foden simply isn't a focal point in attack. Despite that, Riyad Mahrez is an excellent finisher and he'll be eager to face off with Reinildo, a player who isn't typically a center-back. City's forward options will be crucial in their hopes to advance here.
Though Atleti have been disappointing this season on a whole, they are hitting form at just the right time. After a 4-2 spanking at hands of a resurgent Barcelona, Atletico have been much improved. They outplayed Manchester United over two legs in the round of 16 and a run of 4 consecutive wins in LaLiga has them poised for yet another top-4 finish. This month has seen the emergence of Joao Felix, who has finally become the player that many knew he could become after his expensive sale from Benfica. He has 5 goals in 6 games and he is making sure that Atleti can still win games without Luis Suarez up front. His work rate and skill on the ball makes him Atletico's most threatening player. Ruben Dias' absence for Man City should theoretically open more possibilities for counter-attacks from Felix. Other players like Koke, Renan Lodi and Marcos Llorente are experts at mixing an old-fashioned warrior style with new age possession-based football. The plan for Simeone here will be to go full defensive mode and abandon any new-age passing play. They'll likely shift between a 5-3-2 and a 6-2-2 system and be very gritty. Simeone will be determined to hold City at the Etihad. Man City seem to be very nervous about this game, so they may be a little hesitant to attack a 5-man defense with the aggression that they are capable of executing, but the odds are against the Spanish side here.
Atletico have a good gameplan to nullify City, but they will have to stay vigilant for 90 minutes, while the Cityzens constantly test them. I think that Gimenez's absence in the heart of Atletico's defense will really hurt, but I could see les Rojiblancos nicking a late counter-attack goal to go into the second leg with a fighting chance.
Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Atletico Madrid
Chelsea v Real Madrid
Undoubtedly the marquee matchup of this quarterfinal draw, there is not much separating Chelsea from Real Madrid. The London side excel in Thomas Tuchel's 3-4-2-1 system, but if Madrid can pin them back, the Blues really struggle to apply pressure. This is going to be a very close match and will be worth a watch for any neutral fan.
Chelsea's 4-1 embarrassment at the hands of Brentford showed their numerous weaknesses. They have a midfield that either dominates or gets played off the park. Their defense looks mid-table quality in a back 4. They don't have enough skill on the wings to punish weaknesses on Real's flanks. All in all, Chelsea must learn from the Brentford loss to have any hope of advancing here. However, Chelsea always seem to kick it up a notch in Europe. They have essentially already sealed UCL football for next season, so they will have no reservations about fielding a full-strength team in this match. Players like N'Golo Kante and Edouard Mendy always seem to turn up their games when the continental spotlight shines upon them. So I would have no reservations about betting on Chelsea in this match. Unlike their opponents, Chelsea don't have one true star player (though Kai Havertz is coming close). In essence, Tuchel's system is the star. Through teamwork and discipline, Chelsea rarely make mistakes and are a capable team in both transition and possession. Chelsea's wing-backs are crucial to their style of play. Though Marcos Alonso on the left has quite a few flaws in his game, on the right flank, Reece James is establishing himself as one of the best full-backs on the planet. He is a surprisingly lethal finisher and is very strong at tossing in crosses to Chelsea's mobile forwards. In this match, their midfield double six of Jorginho and Kante will be crucial. Real's midfield is one of the most experienced and talented on the planet, so Chelsea will need their opposite numbers to sit deep, not let Madrid press them incessantly and dictate play from further back. Chelsea are more tactically advanced than Real and they should consider themselves the favourites.
After an infamous 3-1 win at the Santiago Bernabeu over Lionel Messi and PSG, Real Madrid have a chance to build on their UCL form and advance to the semifinals. They'll feel slightly aggrieved to match up with the reigning European champs, but manager Carlo Ancelotti should know better than most that winning the Champions League means beating elite squads. Chelsea are full of uncertainties, due to the Ricketts family controversy and Roman Abramovich's presumed sale of the team. Though Madrid have looked downright awful at their worst this campaign, they have two game-breaking forwards that can win a tie all on their own. Though Vini Jr's superstar form from the first half of the season has diminished, his pace and ball control makes him a weapon that Chelsea simply must take seriously. Like the Blues, Madrid pride themselves on being more efficient than spectacular and striker Karim Benzema is at the center of that. Once known for being a flawed finisher, Benzema has outscored his xG tally in LaLiga for the third year in a row. His 24 goals in 26 games is already his most prolific scoring season ever and if he can help Madrid advance, he'll be a Ballon d'Or favourite when the voting begins. As I already mentioned, Madrid's midfield will cause Chelsea to be wary. Luka Modric, Toni Kroos and Casemiro are aging players, but each of them can hurt Chelsea in multiple ways. Casemiro will be a stable base and he is not going to let Havertz get an inch of free space. Meanwhile, Kroos and Modric are creative masterminds and they won't let the Kante-Jorginho duo dictate play with ease. It's important to note that in the first leg of Real's tie with PSG, they played for a draw and sat very deep. That didn't work well for them, with a 1-0 loss being the end result. That disaster might convince manager Ancelotti that a more proactive gameplan is better equipped to take on Chelsea.
This could either be a very high-scoring match or a wildly boring game with wasteful forwards. Either way, I think a draw is the most likely situation here. I feel that the two elite keepers (Mendy for Chelsea and Thibaut Courtois for Madrid) are going to make this game a low-scoring affair. I'll go 1 all.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Real Madrid
Villarreal v Bayern Munich
The Yellow Submarine have done well just to make it here in all honesty. They will be massive underdogs against a terrifying Bayern Munich team, but they have defied the odds on multiple occasions since Unai Emery took over as manager.
Inconsistency has been the massive topic for Villarreal this season. They've had their moments, like a 2-0 win over Real Betis and a 3-1 victory over Real Sociedad, but on the whole, they've been disappointing. Emery's squad needs to win this competetion if they have any hope of making it to the UCL again next season. Villarreal's struggles have been a result of Gerard Moreno's injury issues, Moreno is perhaps the most underrated striker in world football and he is the key to unlocking Villarreal's direct attacking style. Without him, Villarreal look capable of creating chances, but not capable of finishing them. Tactically, Villarreal favour a cautious 4-4-2 system with the pacy Arnaut Danjuma partnering Moreno up top. Bayern's defense has been shaky at times this season, so it's going to be a very difficult task for them to handle the Danjuma-Moreno duo. They usually don't take too many risks as a team, instead opting to control possession safely and wait until they can get their midfield on the same page as their attackers. Their veteran midfield has been a huge part of their success this UCL campaign. Villarreal are a level off of Bayern on sheer talent, so they will need experienced heads in midfield prevail in what should be a feisty game. Between the sticks, Geronimo Rulli deserves credit for a good season so far, but his task is made infinitely easier by the ball-playing center-back duo of Raul Albiol and Pau Torres. They are a perfect mix of what an effective modern-day defender should resemble on the pitch.
I still consider Bayern to be the favourite for this entire competition. Their volatility under Julian Nagelsmann is concerning, but at their very best, Bayern can bury an elite club. If there is one place where Bayern can rely open, it's up top. Their forward trio of Robert Lewandowski, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane are quick, skilled and clinical. Albiol and Torres must make sure that none of these players get into the box, as they are all talented enough to make them pay. Attacking midfielder Thomas Muller leads all players in assists since the beginning of 2021, so he will attempt desperately to release his teammates with delicious through balls. Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka provides a solid defensive spine that can also get forward and contribute offensively. My biggest worry with Bayern is their defense. Since David Alaba's departure to Real Madrid last summer, Munich have looked significantly less stable. Alaba's replacement, Dayot Upamecano, has been prone to many unforced errors and Niklas Sule no longer looks like a physical specimen beside a more mobile center-back. The absence of Canadian left-back Alphonso Davies also hasn't helped, as Nagelsmann has had to shoe-horn Lucas Hernandez in that position where his pace doesn't always help Bayern hold off counter-attacks. Despite that fact, they have the lowest xG allowed in Champions League play this season and they have star goalkeeper Manuel Neuer back after a long-term injury.
Bayern should prevail here, but Villarreal's directness means I wouldn't be stunned if they scored a goal to keep it somewhat close.
Prediction: Villarreal 1-3 Bayern Munich
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