Pierre Engvall (Julian Avram, Getty Images)
We are approaching the final week of the NHL regular season. Frankly, I've checked out a while ago and am ready for the postseason. My biggest issue with the proposed play-in tournament is that there are already arguably too many games in an NHL season. Watching over 100 is draining and it's probably taken a toll on me. Then there are others that watch three games each night. I don't know how those people are still going.
Either way, to celebrate the last power rankings of the NHL season, I'm doing something different. At the start of the season, I made a bold prediction for all 32 teams and luckily I saved each one. As I look at all 32 teams here, I'll be reviewing my bold predictions and seeing how many I got right. Don't forget that these are very bold, so my accuracy might not be entirely up to snuff.
With that out of the way, let's check out the new number 1 team.
1. Florida Panthers
Last Week: 2
Points Percentage: .769
Bold Prediction: Aaron Ekblad will win the Norris Trophy
Unfortunately, Ekblad had his best NHL season in the same year that Cale Makar and Roman Josi had absolutely titanic campaigns and garnered the majority of all Norris consideration. Despite that, Ekblad could have made this prediction slightly more realistic by staying healthy the whole season. However, the former first overall pick suffered a leg injury that kept him out for a large chunk of the season. It's worth noting that Ekblad was within the top 5 in Norris odds on the date of his injury.
2. Colorado Avalanche
Last Week: 1
Points Percentage: .744
Bold Prediction: The Avalanche will have the league's best power play
This wasn't very bold and yet I still got it wrong. The Avs started off really cold on the special teams in the early part of the season. A few unreal streaks have pushed them into the top-5 leaguewide for power play percentage, but a tough start to the season with the man advantage doomed this prediction fairly early.
3. Calgary Flames
Last Week: 6
Points Percentage: .684
Bold Prediction: Darryl Sutter will win the Jack Adams Award
Now that's more like it. In other words, a $10 bet would have returned $510. Man, if only I was 18, I could be a pretty rich guy right now. I liked the signs at the back half of last year for Calgary and I figured that Sutter was a guy that could get the maximum potential out of Calgary. Turns out I was right. Calgary have had an excellent season, clinching the Pacific Division with a week left in the season behind a dynamic first line and a great goalie. Sutter has been at the forefront.
4. Toronto Maple Leafs
Last Week: 3
Points Percentage: .690
Bold Prediction: The Leafs will have a top-3 defense in the league
There was a time when this looked feasible. In the first few months of the season, Jack Campbell was playing like a Vezina Trophy winner and making his defense look very good. By the end of 2021, the Leafs were in fact in the top-3 for goals against per game. Then, the goalies fell off a cliff and sent Toronto's defensive numbers hurtling down. The trade deadline helped path up some of those issues, but even still they sit in 19th place in the NHL, having conceded 3.13 goals per game.
5. New York Rangers
Last Week: 4
Points Percentage: .684
Bold Prediction: Adam Fox will sign a new contract worth $10 million in AAV
I truly expected that new GM Chris Drury would be so desperate to lock up his reigning Norris Trophy winner, Adam Fox, that he would offer him a deal worth $10 million per year. I came close, but at the end of the day, Fox only penned a deal with an AAV of $9.5 million. $10 million did seem a bit high, especially considering what Cale Makar got from Colorado, but this deal is definitely fair for New York, even if it made my prediction incorrect.
6. Minnesota Wild
Last Week: 8
Points Percentage: .686
Bold Prediction: The Wild will trade for Jack Eichel
Well we're 1-6 now. These bold predictions are backfiring for me right here. The Wild are going to be in cap hell next year, so I expected that they would take the biggest swing of any team and go pick up Jack Eichel. I was wrong and considering how lacklustre Eichel's production has been since arriving in Vegas combined with the package that was given up to get him, that might have been a good choice by GM Bill Guerin. The Wild are a great team without Eichel, but this is a big boom-or-bust year for them and he may have been worth the swing.
7. Carolina Hurricanes
Last Week: 5
Points Percentage: .696
Bold Prediction: Frederik Andersen will post a SV% above .920
After posting a sub-.900 SV% with the Leafs last year, it only makes sense that Andersen would go to the defensively responsible Carolina Hurricanes and have a great season. So, this wasn't a completely outrageous prediction, but I'm still impressed with it. I don't think too many people were tipping Freddie Andersen for a Vezina nomination, especially after losing the crease to Jack Campbell last year. However, all it took was to play for the Canes to get his mojo back.
8. Tampa Bay Lightning
Last Week: 9
Points Percentage: .667
Bold Prediction: Ross Colton will score 25 goals
Okay, the jury's still out on this one. With 4 games remaining the regular season, Colton has scored 22 goals. While it will take quite the effort to reach 25, it's still entirely possible. Honestly, this is a pretty impressive prediction. After losing their entire third line, many speculated that Tampa's depth would struggle. Of course, being Tampa Bay, everything they touch turns to gold, so I'm surprised that so few people tipped him for a breakout season.
9. St. Louis Blues
Last Week: 11
Points Percentage: .677
Bold Prediction: Jordan Kyrou will lead the Blues in points
Once again, so close, yet so far. Kyrou had finally put all his tools together this season, combining deadly speed with slick hands and great offensive instincts. He was St. Louis' leading scorer at the All-Star break. However, Kyrou followed up his Fastest Skater performance with a long drought. Picking up 68 points in 71 games is still quite impressive, but Kyrou's cold streak leaves me with yet another L.
10. Edmonton Oilers
Last Week: 10
Points Percentage: .628
Bold Prediction: The Oilers will win 50 games
The Oilers will get close, but Dave Tippett's awful reign will leave them on the outside looking in for my prediction. To be fair to myself, under Jay Woodcroft, Edmonton has comfortably been above a 50-win pace. However, these bold predictions were with the whole season in mind, so unfortunately I can't count this one either.
11. Pittsburgh Penguins
Last Week: 12
Points Percentage: .639
Bold Prediction: Pierre-Olivier Joseph will play 70 games
Oh, this one wasn't close. Acquired in the Phil Kessel deal, I thought that P.O. Joseph would be Pittsburgh's next "Mark Donk": a player that most people haven't heard of that gets a chance at the NHL level and flourishes. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh never seemed to need him. Kris Letang had a fully healthy season and Mike Matheson validated his contract (now that would've been too bold to predict). Joseph only played 4 games at the NHL level this season. However, if there is a mass Penguins exodus in free agency, I could see Joseph getting near this amount of games next season.
12. Boston Bruins
Last Week: 7
Points Percentage: .647
Bold Prediction: Jeremy Swayman will start more games than Linus Ullmark
Well, this is going to be a close one. Swayman and Ullmark have both currently played by 39 games apiece, with each of them getting their own proper runs at holding down the crease. Swayman has been the better goalie this season, but that might be a reason to play Ullmark down the stretch. They may want to keep Swayman fresh for a matchup against Carolina Hurricanes. This is going to be a close one.
13. Washington Capitals
Last Week: 14
Points Percentage: .635
Bold Prediction: Ilya Samsonov will post a SV% under .900
Washington were expected to be a great team yet again this year and much of that optimism was placed on the hopes of an Ilya Samsonov breakout. As I predicted at the start of the season, that never happened. Samsonov can still prove me wrong in the last few games of the season, but he currently has a .897 on the season. Let's not forget that Samsonov was once a 22nd overall pick as a goalie. He was picked ahead of the likes of Sebastian Aho, Brock Boeser, Anthony Cirelli and Roope Hintz. However, it seems like his career will never get off to the right start.
14. Los Angeles Kings
Last Week: 16
Points Percentage: .600
Bold Prediction: Anze Kopitar will finish top-5 in Hart Trophy voting
Kopitar had a very impressive season in the shortened 2020-21 season, helping the Kings exceed expectations for most of the year. I predicted that the Kings would make the playoffs this season, but I figured it would be on the back of Kopitar, not on their depth players like Trevor Moore and Sean Durzi, the former Leafs. Kopitar hasn't been bad this season, but he won't be anywhere close to the top-5 in Hart voting.
15. Nashville Predators
Last Week: 13
Points Percentage: .596
Bold Prediction: Matt Duchene will have the best season of his career
I don't know what convinced me that Duchene would have a career year, so this was a leap of faith. Luckily, this was a leap of faith well warranted. Only in 2018-19 with the Ottawa Senators, has Duchene posted a higher points per 60. However, this has been a fuller season, which has allowed him to post a career-best 40 goals and 79 points. He's a big reason for Nashville being so high up on the power rankings.
16. Dallas Stars
Last Week: 17
Points Percentage: .589
Bold Prediction: John Klingberg will finish top-3 in Norris Trophy voting
This is arguably the biggest miss on the whole list. I bought into Klingberg, picking him in fantasy and predicting a Norris Trophy-worthy season from him. That didn't pay off. In terms of point production, Klingberg's 45 points is fairly disappointing by his standards. Also, his defensive deficiencies have been repeatedly exposed this season. It got so bad that Klingberg demanded a trade for a change of scenery.
17. Vegas Golden Knights
Last Week: 15
Points Percentage: .571
Bold Prediction: Vegas will finish in the bottom-half in goals against per game
Hear me out. If Robin Lehner had stayed healthy all season, this could have happened. Lehner had a rough season without Marc-Andre Fleury as insurance. Vegas, who were without defensive specialist Mark Stone for a large portion of the season, were hovering around 21st place in goals against per game. Then, Logan Thompson emerged and everything changed. The young netminder has possibly been the most disrespected player in the NHL this season. If not for him, Vegas would be in a much worse position. As it stands, Vegas are currently in the top half for GA/GP.
18. Vancouver Canucks
Last Week: 19
Points Percentage: .551
Bold Prediction: Conor Garland will score 30 goals
The American's feistiness has endeared himself to all Canucks fans, but Garland's point production has left a bit to be desired after being a key piece of a blockbuster trade in the offseason. Garland has scored 18 goals in 74 games, a slight step up from his pace in Arizona last year. However, with talented playmakers around him, I would have expected a bit more from Garland on the offensive side.
19. New York Islanders
Last Week: 20
Points Percentage: .513
Bold Prediction: Ilya Sorokin will be the Islanders' starting goalie in the playoffs
Well, this was a strange one. This was the exact phrasing I used. Semyon Varlamov was expected to be New York's starter this season, but he was injured at the start of the season, which gave Ilya Sorokin a chance. Sorokin seized the opportunity, establishing himself as one of the best goalies in the NHL as well as New York's starter. So I was right, wasn't I? Nope. I thought it was a given that the Isles would make the playoffs, so I strangely put the words "in the playoffs" at the end of the prediction.
20. Winnipeg Jets
Last Week: 18
Points Percentage: .519
Bold Prediction: Nikolaj Ehlers will lead the Jets in points
Ehlers has strong rate metrics this season, but a long-term injury took him out of the running for this prediction. My favourite player of the league carried the offensive load for Winnipeg down the stretch, but unfortunately the Jets weren't in the playoff conversation for most of that time. Maybe once the Jets appoint a full-time coach in the offseason, they'll realize that Ehlers is Winnipeg's most effective player and give more power play time.
21. Buffalo Sabres
Last Week: 22
Points Percentage: .456
Bold Prediction: Victor Olofsson will score 30 goals
Two Sabres scored 30 goals this season. That's pretty surprising and you can say that I predicted that in some sense here. However, neither of the two players were Victor Olofsson. The Swede had a bit of a disappointing year and he failed to take the leap that I expected of him. This is another miss for my bold predictions.
22. Columbus Blue Jackets
Last Week: 21
Points Percentage: .494
Bold Prediction: Jakub Voracek will pot 50 assists
Boom, we're back on track. Voracek hasn't reached 50 assists since the 2017-18 season when he had a prime Claude Giroux as his linemate. I figured that Patrik Laine's lethal finishing would give Voracek a chance to reach the 50-assist landmark and that's exactly what happened. Voracek doesn't get much credit as a star in the NHL, but he will reach the 800 point milestone next season.
23. San Jose Sharks
Last Week: 23
Points Percentage: .474
Bold Prediction: Tomas Hertl will not be traded
It seemed obvious that the Sharks would deal Tomas Hertl to fuel their rebuild. So, I'm counting this one as a W. Up until I actually saw the announcement that Hertl was staying, I fully expected him to be flipped to the Boston Bruins, but interim GM Joe Will refused to make any franchise-defining moves, instead penning Hertl to a contract and subjecting the team to a half-decade of mediocrity.
24. Detroit Red Wings
Last Week: 25
Points Percentage: .443
Bold Prediction: Lucas Raymond will win the Calder Trophy
Trevor Zegras and Cole Caufield were getting the most Calder buzz at the start of the season. I figured it would be a Red Wing that won the award and I was right! Unfortunately, it was the wrong Red Wing. It seems likely that Lucas Raymond's teammate Moritz Seider will take home the silverware, but Raymond himself has been pushing all season and he will finish in the top-3 for the award.
25. Anaheim Ducks
Last Week: 24
Points Percentage: .468
Bold Prediction: Ryan Getzlaf will be traded
I was expecting a team desperate for centers like the Vegas Golden Knights to swoop in and spoil Ryan Getzlaf's farewell from Anaheim. Instead, the Knights went for Jack Eichel and the Ducks opted to keep Getzlaf for his veteran leadership and surprising point production. The star plays his final home game tonight and this is a great time to appreciate one of the best of the era.
26. Ottawa Senators
Last Week: 27
Points Percentage: .437
Bold Prediction: Tim Stutzle will score 60 points
Stutzle will likely come up short of this tally, but it's been an encouraging season for the German. He has a lot of Mitch Marner in his game and 53 points is a solid haul for a player of his age. Stutzle is going to be a very fun player to watch for many years. Now if only he could stop flopping...
27. New Jersey Devils
Last Week: 31
Points Percentage: .397
Bold Prediction: Jack Hughes will score under 40 points
Literally every media outlet making NHL bold predictions at the start of the year was expecting Jack Hughes to break out. It became obvious that he was going to break out, so I went in another direction. However, Hughes did take the obvious route and had an unreal season. In a season shortened due to injuries, Hughes' 3.5 points per 60 was very impressive. Nobody should be surprised when he scores 100 points and leads the Devils to a playoff spot next year. That's right; I said it. There's my bold prediction for next year.
28. Chicago Blackhawks
Last Week: 26
Points Percentage: .399
Bold Prediction: Jeremy Colliton will be fired
Colliton was doomed from the start. He wasn't brave enough to keep an evil franchise afloat, even with the tremendous on-ice talent that he was granted. To be fair to Colliton, interim coach Derek King hasn't been much better, as Chicago reels from a very disappointing regular season. With Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews aging, it looks like Chicago are on the way down to the cellar.
29. Seattle Kraken
Last Week: 30
Points Percentage: .372
Bold Prediction: Calle Jarnkrok will be Seattle's leading scorer
Seattle had an underwhelming expansion draft, but I really like the selection of Calle Jarnkrok. I thought he would bring a two-dimensional style to the Kraken with the offensive potential to become Seattle’s version of William Karlsson. However, Jarnkrok wound up getting dealt to Calgary and Jared McCann became the surprise star for the Kraken in their first year.
30. Philadelphia Flyers
Last Week: 28
Points Percentage: .378
Bold Prediction: The Flyers will trade for a star winger at the deadline
You can tell that I thought that the Flyers would be a playoff team by this prediction. I expected Philly to be big buyers and pursue an elite forward acquisition. Instead, Philadelphia have been largely awful all year and instead of trading for another great player, they dealt away their captain, Claude Giroux.
31. Montreal Canadiens
Last Week: 29
Points Percentage: .323
Bold Prediction: Jeff Petry will finish top-5 in Norris Trophy voting
Okay, this might be worse than the Klingberg one. Jeff Petry has been one of the league’s biggest disappointments in 2021-22, getting exposed without an elite partner. His production has shriveled up and his defensive game also looks like a shell of what it was in his prime. Perty’s value is at an all-time low, but I figure he should rebound, whether it be for the Habs or another team.
32. Arizona Coyotes
Last Week: 32
Points Percentage: .323
Bold Prediction: Clayton Keller will become the next captain of the Arizona Coyotes
This could still happen. As of yet, the Coyotes haven’t announced a captain, but Keller looks like he has made quite the case. Keller had his best season in the NHL before a freak injury shut him down for the last few weeks. Frankly, I think Keller might be the favourite now. Some of the other options include Jakob Chychrun (who was in trade rumours), Jay Beagle (who had the Troy Terry incident) and Phil Kessel (who isn’t exactly a young, upcoming leader). I think Keller will get it and prove me right.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK
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