McDavid and Draisaitl combine for a goal (Amber Bracken, The Canadian Press)
Most NHL teams have just about 10 games remaining in the regular season and then it's time for the postseason! The stretch run always contains the best hockey of the entire season. It's frantic, gritty and quick. It's going to be fun to see which teams prevail, as there is still quite a bit at stake. Teams have lots of reasons to battle hard and dig deep, including home-ice advantage, a more favourable matchup, or even just to make the postseason.
Here on Sincere Sports, we have yet another edition of the NHL power rankings where we take a look at every team and identify any trends that I've been seeing.
There's a lot of movement in this week of the power rankings, particularly at the top. I'm very confused by that fact since I would expect the power rankings to start to stagnate.
Let's not waste any more time and crack on with the article!
1. Colorado Avalanche
Last Week: 1
Points Percentage: .764
Against Vegas in the playoffs last year, Philipp Grubauer's misplays when the going got tough cost the Avs a deep playoff run. In the offseason, they addressed that issue by trading for Darcy Kuemper. It looked like a bad bet in the first couple of months, but now goaltending is one of Colorado's biggest strengths. The tandem of Pavel Francouz and Kuemper has been one of the league's best in 2022. Add that to a team that is so deep that it's still winning despite injuries to Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri and you have the league's best team.
2. Florida Panthers
Last Week: 2
Points Percentage: .750
In the last week, the Panthers have erased two 4-goal deficits and won both the games. They are an offensive wagon that can be one of the rare teams to win 5-4 in the postseason. However, the Panthers aren't quite as complete as the Avs. You see, to come back from a 4-goal deficit, you have to be down by 4 goals, which happened twice in 4 days to Florida. Without Aaron Ekblad, Florida's defense doesn't look trustworthy. Predictably, Ben Chiarot hasn't turned the needle. Florida needs better defense and goaltending to come out of the East.
3. Toronto Maple Leafs
Last Week: 8
Points Percentage: .694
The Leafs are finding their game at just the right time. Auston Matthews and John Tavares are both playing up to their contracts and the Leafs have a titanic forward group because of it. Mitch Marner has been a top-5 player in the NHL since the calendar shifted to 2022. Of course, the first round will always be an obstacle, but this is Toronto's best team in decades. The addition of Mark Giordano has made them a much better defensive team as well. There will be a lot of pressure on Jack Campbell to protect the crease, but Toronto are suddenly a multi-dimensional team led by the NHL's best player.
4. New York Rangers
Last Week: 9
Points Percentage: .685
The majority of my blurbs on the Rangers have been regarding the fact that they are being kept afloat by their power play and the dominance of their goaltender Igor Shesterkin. Well, Shesterkin is in the midst of his first rough patch of the year and the Rangers are still winning. Their possession metrics had been awful all season, which led me to believe that this stretch wasn't sustainable. However, since the trade deadline, the Rangers are third in Corsi For percentage and expected Goals For percentage. The additions of Frank Vatrano and especially Andrew Copp have been revelations for New York.
5. Carolina Hurricanes
Last Week: 4
Points Percentage: .694
Suddenly, the Hurricanes are in danger of losing the Metropolitan Division crown. They've seemingly had the division on lock, but three losses in their last four games has them tied with the Rangers for points, albeit with a game in hand. The forwards are not on the same page as they previously were, with Teuvo Teravainen and Vincent Trocheck struggling in a big way. However, this team is built for the postseason. If Frederik Andersen can continue his good play into May, Carolina should be just fine.
6. Calgary Flames
Last Week: 3
Points Percentage: .674
The Flames' star power is keeping them as the favourites in the Pacific Division. However, like with Carolina, the depth scoring is becoming a minor concern for Calgary. Andrew Mangiapane has scored just 1 of his 30 goals on the season since March 3. Mikael Backlund, a potential Selke Trophy nominee, has had his impact muted since the spring began. This isn't as obvious when Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk are dominating at even strength, but as we've seen before, one line can't win a series. Calgary are the second best team in the West, but they are not without flaws.
7. Boston Bruins
Last Week: 5
Points Percentage: .669
Tampa Bay's recent struggles have helped Boston overtake them for third in the Atlantic Division, setting up a playoff series with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Very interesting, indeed. The Bs are no pushover. They started slow, but in 2022, their 31-11-3 record is behind just Colorado and Florida. Since March 8, their expected goals percentage of 62% is tops league-wide. I'm still concerned about the goaltending for Boston. Jeremy Swayman has been excellent when he's been in the crease, but he has never faced a workload this intense. I wonder if that will come back to bite Boston.
8. Minnesota Wild
Last Week: 10
Points Percentage: .657
The Wild have rebounded from a very poor month of February. They are a definite contender and have solved their crease woes with the acquisition of Marc-Andre Fleury. Fleury has been a perfect fit in Minnesota so far. The chemistry between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello has been a joy to watch and the addition of Nick Deslauriers seems to have sparked a focus on physical play. Kaprizov is putting up yet another great season and he is good enough to help Minnesota make the second round.
9. Tampa Bay Lightning
Last Week: 6
Points Percentage: .662
Yikes, what has happened to Tampa Bay? Since 2019, the Lightning have been one of the league's most consistent teams. They rarely have long losing streaks, but worry is starting to creep in for the back-to-back Cup champs. They are 0-3-1 in their last 4, getting outscored 17-10 on aggregate. Up to the 56-game mark this season, the Lightning hadn't lost consecutive games all year. Of their 21 regulation losses this campaign, 10 have come in their last 19 games. Concerningly, Andrei Vasilevskiy has a sub-.900 SV% in the last two weeks.
10. Edmonton Oilers
Last Week: 13
Points Percentage: .616
Jay Woodcroft has finally helped put it all together for the Edmonton Oilers. Though Edmonton will need at least average goaltending to pull off a surprise in the postseason, they have shown enough under Woodcroft to no longer be an afterthought. They are 9th in the league in actual goals percentage and expected goals percentage since his hiring. The guy who has really benefited from the coaching change is former fourth-overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi. Since February 10, Edmonton has outscored opponents 17-1 when Puljujarvi is on the ice. Pretty impressive.
11. St. Louis Blues
Last Week: 15
Points Percentage: .653
The Blues are an entity unto themselves. In their last 7 games, the Blues are 6-0-1, though they've beat just 1 playoff team and haven't actually played particularly well. Nevertheless, they are challenging for second in the Central Division. The defense is still a bit sketchy, but the Blues have good forward depth and relying on Ville Husso has worked so far. I don't know how much damage the Blues can do in the postseason, but they are certainly a team capable of picking up wins.
12. Pittsburgh Penguins
Last Week: 7
Points Percentage: .630
Pittsburgh have the biggest fall of any team on this list. The Rangers and Pens seem to be on a collision course in the first round and New York have had their way with Pittsburgh all season long. Since the 11-2 battering of the Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh have lost all rhythm. The big worry is that Tristan Jarry, their goaltender, has been having a tough couple of weeks. Pittsburgh are slipping down the power rankings.
13. Nashville Predators
Last Week: 11
Points Percentage: .606
Possibly the biggest storyline for the Preds from here on out is whether Roman Josi can win another Norris Trophy. However, we can't forget that Nashville are in an intense battle for their playoff hopes. Luckily for them, they have a player in Josi who is playing like the best defenseman in hockey. Obviously, the Preds will need more contributions from their depth defenseman and highly paid forwards to really make noise, but in Jusse Saros and Roman Josi, they have two stars playing great hockey.
14. Washington Capitals
Last Week: 14
Points Percentage: .620
Alex Ovechkin was a borderline Hart Trophy candidate in the first few months of the season. That buzz has died off and Ovi has been struggling. He isn't producing on what has been a stale power play all season and his defensive deficiencies have been exposed in the last few months. Over the last 35 games, Ovi's 3.7 actual goals against per 60 is among the worst marks of all Washington forwards. With an average goaltending tandem and a forward group that peaked early, Ovi cannot be struggling like this.
15. Vegas Golden Knights
Last Week: 18
Points Percentage: .575
Could they pull it off? The Golden Knights looked dead and buried, but they have life again. The schedule is pretty favourable down the stretch, but the game that all Knights fans should have circled on the calendar is April 26 against Dallas. If Vegas can beat the Stars, who are currently keeping them out of a playoff spot, they could sneak into a wild-card spot. They are on shaky ground, but some of their key players have returned from injuries. Per the Athletic, their playoff chances are at 48% after reaching an all-time low of 27% in mid-March. It's improbable, but we can't rule out a late push.
16. Los Angeles Kings
Last Week: 12
Points Percentage: .589
The Kings' finishing has been letting them down all season. In 2022, they've underperformed their xG per 60 by over 1 whole goal. That simply won't cut it in the midst of an intense playoff race. The worry with LA now is that their possession metrics have started to fall off. This season, they've had a high Corsi and have been generating the majority of the expected goals per game. However, their advanced analytics have dropped off lately and it isn't covering up the Kings' finishing woes.
17. Dallas Stars
Last Week: 16
Points Percentage: .592
Somehow, the Stars are still holding onto a playoff spot. Despite having a pretty hopeless offense and a tendency to blow comfortable leads, their gritty defense is keeping the games close, as I witnessed first-hand when the Stars played the Leafs this week. Their 10 overtime wins are keeping them ahead of Vegas in the wild-card hunt, but I question how long their luck can last. Luckily, they have Miro Heiskanen back from mono, so he'll provide a boost to the Stars' D corps.
18. Winnipeg Jets
Last Week: 17
Points Percentage: .535
Connor Hellebuyck's pedestrian play this season has doomed both the Jets and hindered my fantasy team (but I'm still marching along to the finals, baby). Luckily, he has started to step up his game in recent weeks. He's right back up into the top 10 for goals saved above expected and since March 8, he's second to Darcy Kuemper in that metric. However, it's too little, too late for the Jets. Nikolaj Ehlers has tried to boost them since his return from injury, but Winnipeg's awful team defense has been their downfall once again.
19. Vancouver Canucks
Last Week: 19
Points Percentage: .548
It was fun while it lasted, but reality has kicked in for the Canucks. Despite a significant improvement under Bruce Boudreau, Vancouver will once again fail to make the playoffs. Vancouver fans seem to be focusing on the positives, such as the play of Elias Pettersson over the last few weeks. Pettersson has rediscovered his status as the Canucks' most important player with 32 points in his last 25 games. The Canucks will now have to deal with the rotten cap space situation in the offseason, but new hires Jim Rutherford and Patrik Allvin have overseen an optimistic phase so far.
20. New York Islanders
Last Week: 20
Points Percentage: .528
The Islanders haven't been mathematically eliminated just yet, but since their early struggles, they've been on borrowed time. They picked the wrong time to play their best hockey of the season, as Barry Trotz finally has his team playing well, even if the gap to the playoffs is too large to overcome. The big story coming out of Long Island this week was Cory Schneider who won his first game in two years. When your team has below a 1% chance of making the playoffs, it's the stories that count and Schneider's tale was good for the vibes on the Island.
21. Columbus Blue Jackets
Last Week: 21
Points Percentage: .507
Though Columbus looked like comfortably the East's ninth-best team for a good stretch, they've ceded that title to the New York Islanders. However, I would argue that this year has been a success for the Jackets. They've shown enough promise on the season as a whole to keep them relevant. Patrik Laine has largely had a positive season, (though his recent drought is cause for concern). Players like young Cole Sillinger have shown growth. Also, Kent Johnson, a prospect who I absolutely adore, has been signed by Columbus, so he's eligible to get some NHL action after NCAA Michigan lost in the men's Frozen Four tournament.
22. Buffalo Sabres
Last Week: 24
Points Percentage: .432
Has this been the best fortnight in the last 5 years for the Buffalo Sabres? They are a very respectable 10-7-3 in their last 20 games. The two headlining pieces of the Jack Eichel deal, Alex Tuch and Peyton Krebs, have been good contributors. Legendary broadcaster Rick Jeanneret got a tearful retirement ceremony. They also have two 30-goal scorers for the first time in over a decade. The Jeff Skinner contract not longer looks like a bloated whale. Is this optimism? Ah well, it's Buffalo, so something will go wrong soon.
Yep. They lost 5-0 to Tampa on the day I'm writing this. Nice.
23. San Jose Sharks
Last Week: 22
Points Percentage: .472
Long-time GM Doug Wilson has officially announced that he will be stepping down from his post. Frankly, the Sharks are not a very appealing franchise currently. They have a large group of smart GM candidates at their disposal, but a stale prospect cabinet, a heavy payroll, and a Timo Meier extension looking necessary, it will be hard to convince a general manager to step into this mess. Interestingly though, they have the highest amount of games played by rookies of any NHL club this season, so maybe the future is brighter than it appears.
24. Anaheim Ducks
Last Week: 23
Points Percentage: .479
The big story from this past fortnight of NHL hockey was Anaheim's 5-0 defeat of the Arizona Coyotes. No, it wasn't Trevor Zegras' second "Michigan" goal that made headlines. Ducks' 30-goal scorer Troy Terry was pummeled to the ground by veteran Jay Beagle, while Coyotes broadcaster Tyson Nash egged him on. It was a controversial moment by all means and it masked the fact that Anaheim was desperate for a convincing win like that. Even with that on their ledger, Anaheim has lost 20 of their last 26 games and is plummeting in the Pacific Division standings. Let's not forget that Anaheim was 15th after my first ever Sincere Sports power rankings.
25. Detroit Red Wings
Last Week: 27
Points Percentage: .458
It's been a tough month in Hockeytown, as the Red Wings have dropped 6 consecutive games on two different occasions. The goaltending has remained a hindrance (I think we have to issue Hurricans GM Don Waddell an apology after absolutely roasting him for letting Alex Nedeljkovic sign in Detroit) and the defense hasn't been much better. On the bright side, this should hopefully mark the end of the Jeff Blashill era and Detroit will probably have the top-2 Calder Trophy nominees.
26. Chicago Blackhawks
Last Week: 25
Points Percentage: .415
It's not necessarily that the Blackhawks are losing, it's how they are losing. In the past two weeks, they blew a 4-goal lead to the Buffalo Sabres before conceding a last minute winner off of a broken stick. Arguably even more embarrassing, they got shut out by Philipp Grubauer, statistically the worst goalie in the NHL this season. It's been a wretched year for Chicago marked by scandal and a dreadful on-ice product. Also, it looks like Jonathan Toews wants to leave.
27. Ottawa Senators
Last Week: 30
Points Percentage: .408
Predictably, Mathieu Joseph has been excelling in Ottawa. We all knew that the forward would find a home after being dealt for Nick Paul at the deadline. After scoring just 18 points in 58 games for Tampa Bay this season, Joseph has 11 points in 9 games with Ottawa. In his last 5 games, the forward has 10 points. He's a great fit for the team and he could be a building block for Ottawa's never ending rebuild. The Senators are becoming the next version of the Leafs. "Next year is our year," says Marc Methot enthusiastically. Sure, buddy. The rebuild was supposed to be over. It continues again.
28. Philadelphia Flyers
Last Week: 29
Points Percentage: .396
Another big storyline from this past stretch of NHL hockey was Keith Yandle being scratched. I already touched on this in my 5 Takeaways series, but I'll talk about it here as well. It was an odd decision. Yandle has been a liability this year. He's been statistically one of the worst defensemen in the league and he has the worst +/- in the entire NHL. However, the Flyers were eliminated from playing contention and they want as many lottery balls as possible. It would have been the right decision to let Yandle reach 1000 successive appearances, especially with Phil Kessel closing in on his consecutive games mark.
29. Montreal Canadiens
Last Week: 26
Points Percentage: .354
Though 12-11-4 doesn't jump off the page, Montreal have seen a remarkable improvement since Martin St. Louis took over. Now, all their hopes lay on Lady Luck. I went to watch Shane Wright play in Oshawa a week ago and though I was a bit disappointed with his overall play, he showed some flashes on the power play that proves what everybody has been saying about him. If Montreal could win the draft lottery and get the chance to draft Wright in front of their home crowd, it would be a transformative day in the Habs' modern history.
30. Seattle Kraken
Last Week: 32
Points Percentage: .361
Seattle's goaltending seems to have woken up. Both Chris Driedger and Philipp Grubauer have been above average in the past month. Though Seattle still has a bit of a problem on their hands with that tandem, they've proven that they can be capable enough to at least keep the Kraken in games. They'll be looking to add a key piece to their lineup in the offseason, as Jared McCann really shouldn't be a team's leading scorer. Maybe top prospect Matty Beniers could help?
31. New Jersey Devils
Last Week: 28
Points Percentage: .389
The Devils' goaltending has doomed them. Despite heavy investment in the team, the Devils had another disappointing year. However, I want to go on record and say that the Devils are my team tow watch for next season. PK Subban's contract coming off the books means they'll have the space for at least 1 marquee free agent addition. They could promote Shakir Mukhamadullin to provided help on defense. MacKenzie Blackwood and Jonathan Bernier can only go uphill from here. But the most exciting part of this franchise are their top-2 centers. Both Nico Hischier and Jack Hughes have arrived and are legitimate stars. I think they are both ready to take the leap to superstardom next season.
32. Arizona Coyotes
Last Week: 31
Points Percentage: .340
The Coyotes exist. That's about as much as you can ask for after this year's arena fiasco. Any Leafs fans want to check in on Nick Ritchie after we dumped him on Arizona's doorstep? Oh, he has 8 in 20 games since joining compared to just 2 in 33 for Toronto. Yeah, that checks out. Frankly, I'm still keeping my eye out on most Arizona games for Michael Carcone. The brother of my grade 8 math teacher is randomly getting top-6 minutes and has added his first 2 NHL goals this season. Good for him!
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK
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