Jordan Poole (Jed Jacobsohn, Associated Press)
The first round of the NBA playoffs has come and gone and we are now left with just 8 teams. From a seeding perspective, there were no upsets in the round of 16. However, there were plenty of startling revelations that absolutely will impact my second round picks here.
In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics will be up against the reigning champions, the Milauwkee Bucks. The Miami Heat are matched up with the Philadelphia 76ers who knocked off the Toronto Raptors.
In the West, the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks both advanced to face each other. The other matchup gives us what will be a very intriguing matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies.
It's time for some more predictions! I went 7/8 in the first round, only succumbing to an unwavering belief that the Utah Jazz would figure it out eventually, so let's try to go 4/4 this time.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami Heat (1) vs Philadelphia 76ers (4)
The Heat dispatched of a talented team in the Atlanta Hawks with such ease that they are getting taken seriously by everybody. Just like in the bubble, this Heat team don't have the most talented players in any of their series, but they have lots of very smart and experienced veterans that know how to win playoff rounds. The 76ers, by contrast, haven't made it to the Conference Finals since 2001. These two teams have very different postseason fortunes.
The Heat should have Kyle Lowry healthy for this series, which will ease the concern about whether Jimmy Butler can carry the offensive rotation. Miami's biggest strength is their bench. In Tyler Herro, they have the 6th Man of the Year. In Duncan Robinson, they have a guy struggling, but equally capable of knocking down multiple 3s. In Victor Oladipo, they have an athletic scorer who adds an extra dimension. In PJ Tucker, they have a guy who will instigate battles with Joel Embiid.
The key for Miami to advance is how they deal with Joel Embiid. Luckily for them, this problem might be already resolved for them. A mild orbital fracture and concussion added on the torn ligament in his thumb that he suffered against the Raptors. Embiid is now considered "out indefinitely," which instantly takes away Philly's biggest threat. No Embiid means better ways of dealing with players like Tobias Harris and Danny Green, as Miami coach Erik Spoelstra likely would have opted for double-teams on Embiid.
The 76ers' chances already look shot. James Harden is far from the player that once averaged over 30 points per game. He is now better suited to being the primary playmaker with secondary scoring duties. Unless a player like Harris goes nuclear against the Heat, Harden is going to need to shy away from his passing and take on the role of a first scoring option. That's a role he hasn't had to fulfill since his final season with the Houston Rockets.
For the 76ers, they are going to continue to play their unbearable play style. The team will need to be physical, get lucky with foul calls, make over 90% of their free throws and shoot close to 50% from the perimeter. If that seems like a lot of things to go right, it is. Not only does Philadelphia have to cope with an injury to their best player, they are also going to struggle in minutes without Harden on the floor. Philly's bench depth pales in comparison to Miami's. This would be a herculean task for the 76ers to prevail.
Philadelphia's perimeter play will dictate whether this series is close or if the Heat run away with it. Harden is still a star player and Tyrese Maxey seems made for big moments. However, Miami's perimeter defense is a strength and they have the depth to take advantage whenever Harden or Maxey are resting. This seems like it should be a comfortable Miami win, but the 76ers could knock down some shots to make it appear a bit closer.
Prediction: Miami wins in 6
Boston Celtics (2) vs Milwaukee Bucks (3)
Anybody who watched even one of the Celtics' games against the Brooklyn Nets in the first-round knows why they are currently the favourite to be the East's representative in the NBA Finals. Their defense is absolutely suffocating, even against superstars like Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Jayson Tatum is probably already a top-10 player in the league. This team is scary.
The Celtics seem to have the most connected roster of all remaining teams from a team chemistry perspective. They don't play the most flashy, entertaining style, but the decisions they make on both ends are so subtly brilliant that they are hard to beat. This is by far a better team than the one that took on the Bucks in the 2019 second round. Ime Udoka's double big lineup means that if there is a team that can handle Giannis Antetokounmpo, it's the Celtics.
But that is still the biggest concern for them. Giannis is a different beast, even compared to KD. Every time somebody throws an obstacle at the Greek Freak, he seems to body it out of the way. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Al Horford are all capable of keeping defending against elite scorers. But Giannis is beyond elite. He's a true game-changer.
What's advantageous for the Celtics is a key injury. While Giannis is an incredible player, he can't outscore Tatum and Jaylen Brown put together. Due to the fact that Khris Middleton is facing an entire series on the bench, he's going to have to manage on his own.
The Bucks are a known quantity. They are a year removed from winning the championship, after all. They package physicality and skill better than any team in the NBA. Giannis and Jrue Holiday can both simultaneously lock up their opponents and drop 20+ points on any given night. But the Middleton injury hurts.
Coach Mike Budenholzer can take heart in the fact that his team is far more experienced than the Celtics. The Bucks know how to navigate a 7-game series far better than the young Boston squad does. That absolutely means something. However, this might be the end of the line for them. Defensively, Milwaukee will struggle to break up Boston's crisp attack. On offense, they'll have to cope with the league's best defense in years without one of their top-3 scoring options. I can't see Milwaukee winning this.
But I'm going to pick them regardless. There has to be at least one upset after 2 rounds and I'm not brave enough to pick a Mavericks series victory over the Phoenix Suns. Boston will have more bites at the cherry and Milwaukee are going to be desperate to get it done. This should go the distance, but Milwaukee have the personnel to win this one.
Prediction: Milwaukee wins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix Suns (1) vs Dallas Mavericks (4)
Oh, I so badly want to pick an upset here. Alas, I don't have the prediction skills to do so.
The Suns looked like they could be in trouble against the New Orleans Pelicans, but I think that series going 6 games was more of a testament to the Pels playing well than the Suns performing poorly.
The Suns simply have more than Dallas does. The Mavericks have the star power to match up well with Phoenix, but the Suns' bench depth is even more impressive. At the end of the day, even if Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson outperform Devin Booker and Chris Paul (which I'm also skeptical of), players like Mikal Bridges and DeAndre Ayton are going to dominate Reggie Bullock and Dwight Powell among others.
Devin Booker is back healthy and Chris Paul showed that he can be at the very least a secondary scoring option with his performance as the lead guard against New Orleans. I do think that Jason Kidd's Dallas is good enough to overpower a Booker-less Suns roster. However, Booker's improved overall play will help to take the load off of Paul, giving Phoenix more space to operate.
Playoff Doncic is a different beast. He is the primary reason why Dallas can absolutely pull this off. Though players like Bridges and Jae Crowder can match up with Doncic, the Serbian is too talented to come off on the losing side of those games consistently. He can single-handedly win games for Dallas.
Doncic isn't the only thing the Mavs have going for them. They have bigger defenders than Phoenix does and can probably create more favourable matchups than the Suns can. This series will be a big test of Jason Kidd's coaching abilities. If he can get the right switches, Dallas has a real chance. If not, the Suns will make this look easy. Kidd has passed every test of the season so far. Can he pass the biggest one of all?
The Suns are deservedly championship favourites. This team is incredible in their depth and coaching. But Doncic is the best player in this series and that often means a lot. This is going to be closer than many people expect, but I'm picking Phoenix in 7.
Prediction: Phoenix wins in 7
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Golden State Warriors (3)
The Grizzlies had a tough time against the Minnesota Timberwolves and if not for Minnesota's multiple collapses, they probably wouldn't be in this situation. But they were elite in the regular season and they have the team camaraderie of a squad ready to make their mark.
The Warriors have regained their status as legitimate contenders. Jordan Poole (who should've won the Most Improved Player award) has become a star, a legitimate third scoring option that Memphis can't quite match.
Golden State has got their mojo working at just the right time. This team is too experienced to throw away multiple big leads like Minnesota did against Memphis. It is tough to expect Memphis being able to outplay the Warriors in a game situation. In Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Poole, the Warriors have three players who can be both spot-up shooters and multidimensional scorers. Ja Morant is the only player the Grizzlies possess who can get anywhere near the level of that trio. I wonder if Golden State coach Steve Kerr will find any way of matching up his best defender, Draymond Green, with Morant particularly when the athletic guard gets into the paint.
The Warriors' team defense has been underrated by many, myself included. It's way more than just Green. Everybody buys into their roles and they make way less mistakes than Minnesota. Memphis thrived in the first-round because it was a youthful series. This will not be the same.
The Grizzlies had an excellent regular season, but the Warriors might be too much for them. Memphis actually went 3-1 against the Warriors in the regular season, but Golden State knows how to win against young, skilled rosters. I think this experience is a good precursor for future success for Taylor Jenkins' team, but for now I'm expecting Curry and co. to outclass the Grizz.
Prediction: Golden State wins in 5
ALL STATS COURTESY OF BASKETBALL REFERENCE
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