James Harden and Scottie Barnes (Mitchell Leff, Getty Images)
The NBA postseason has arrived. After the conclusion of the play-in tournament yesterday, the first-round matchups and schedule have been unveiled.
Though many are speculating that this year's race is wide open, there is a clear favourite. The Phoenix Suns will feel confident that they possess the ability to lift the Larry O'Brien trophy after falling in the NBA Finals last year.
However, elsewhere in the bracket, there are many chances for upsets. The NBA of 2022 is utterly loaded with superstars and players capable of impacting a series. Thus, it is very unlikely that the first round will go exactly as expected. That's where I step in.
In this article, I'll be looking at every single playoff matchup. I will offer some insight into the notable X-factors, the coaching matchups and my predictions for who will advance.
I'll begin with the Eastern Conference and work my way through all 8 playoff series. I won't waste any more time; let's get started with the meat and potatoes of the article: predictions.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami Heat (1) vs Atlanta Hawks (8)
Kyle Lowry and Trae Young (Sam Navarro, USA Today)
The Heat fit the profile of a championship team. Their bench is deep and contains the frontrunner for 6th Man of the Year. The playoff experience in their starting 5 is a major advantage over the Atlanta Hawks, who have a young, up-and-coming roster. Their coach, Erik Spoelstra, is considered by many to be one of the savviest in the business. They are a very efficient 3-point shooting team. Frankly, it would be tough to envision them falling in the first round.
But the Hawks cannot be slept on. Since the All-Star break, they have been one of the league's most dominant teams. They are led by a true superstar in Trae Young, a player who has the shooting prowess and playmaking abilities to win a game on his own. Even more importantly, the Hawks finally have a bench unit that doesn't shrivel up and die when Young isn't on the court. Free agent acquisition Bogdan Bogdanovic has been a perfect fit in Atlanta.
There is one very important factor concerning Atlanta's chances, though. Their two best frontcourt players, Clint Capela and John Collins, are both currently banged up. Capela is one of the most impactful defenders in the NBA and Collins is a great secondary option to Atlanta's offense. If Heat center Bam Adebayo returns from COVID-19 protocols, he will wreak havoc in the paint.
The Hawks' firepower will keep them in every game and I do really like Nate McMillan as a coach. However, the Heat have superior depth and a real Coach of the Year candidate in Spoelstra. Coach Spo's game management is elite and even if the Hawks can keep the games close, I'd trust Miami to get it done.
It really all comes down to Capela and Collins. I do think that Miami will win this either way, but the health of those two bigs will influence whether this is a tidy victory for Miami or a hard-fought slog that goes 7 games.
Prediction: Miami wins in 5
Boston Celtics (2) vs Brooklyn Nets (7)
The consensus is that this will be the best series to watch from a neutral perspective. On one side, you have the Boston Celtics, the league's best team since the calendar flipped to 2022, led by two young stars and a stifling defense. On the other, you have Brooklyn Nets, a team that once again failed to live up to preseason expectations for reasons out of their hands.
Since January 1, Boston have been the cream of the crop in the NBA. Their +12.3 net rating per 100 possessions is easily the best in the league. First-year coach Ime Udoka has gotten to grips with this job and is one of the highest rated coaches in the league. In Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the Celtics have two players who can drop 30 on any given night. Their suffocating defense against isolation will frustrate Brooklyn to no end. Frankly, a fully healthy Boston would probably dispatch of Brooklyn, but Robert Williams III, one of the league's premier frontcourt defenders, is nursing a knee injury. This gives the Nets hope.
So far this season, Steve Nash's Nets have relied heavily on iso moves and getting the ball to either Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving. Ime Udoka's Celtics have been brilliant at suppressing those types of plays on offense and they will make it so that the Nets don't get any open looks.
This series will be a major test of Steve Nash's prowess as a coach. There was some controversy surrounding his appointment, but he has a chance to put the critics to rest. Though the numbers show that Boston have been more effective since Robert Williams' injury, everybody with more than two brain cells knows that a frontcourt of Al Horford and Daniel Theis won't be able to guard the paint as well as one with Williams. Brooklyn don't have too many players known for their offense in the paint (Bruce Brown, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant and maybe Andre Drummond?), but if Nash can exploit Boston's switches to get more open looks at the rim, the Nets can pull off the upset.
This series could very well go the distance, which seems to favour Boston. The Nets are capable of dominating in bursts, since Irving and Durant are such talented scorers. However, Boston won't make the same mistakes on defense multiple times, which will make it hard for Brooklyn to win 4 games. However, there is one true X-factor that could completely change that mindset.
The Athletic's Shams Charania reported that Ben Simmons could debut for Brooklyn during this series. Simmons would be easily Brooklyn's best perimeter defender and he is probably the only Nets player able to guard Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown over a prolonged period of time. If he arrives in game 6, he could turn the tide of the series.
This series is essentially a coin flip. Whichever team wins will have to be very impressive for at least 4 games against a formidable opponent. I'm leaning towards Boston, but Brooklyn have a puncher's chance, especially if Simmons can return and get back up to game speed.
Prediction: Boston wins in 7
Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs Chicago Bulls (6)
DeMar DeRozan and Wesley Matthews (Jonathan Daniel, Getty Images)
The Bulls were one of the feel-good stories early in the season, peaking at first place in the East. DeMar DeRozan was balling out and breaking Wilt Chamberlain records, while Lonzo Ball was fulfilling the potential that many expected of him when he was taken 2nd overall at the 2017 NBA draft. However, since then, the Bulls have been one of the worst teams in the league, winning just 7 of their last 22 games.
The Bucks are the reigning champions and would be my current pick to win the East. In Giannis Antetokounmpo, they have the league's best player over the last 4 years. They have winning experience, versatile players all over the floor and a smart head coach. Their defense has been cause for concern this year, but I suspect Chicago aren't complete enough to truly challenge the Bucks' defense. If anything, that's a problem that will rear its' ugly head in later rounds.
A healthy trio of Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic and DeRozan can hurt Milwaukee from the free throw line and in the pick-and-roll. This should give the Bulls a chance to at least pick up one game during this series.
However, if I'm concerned with Milwaukee's defense, Chicago's is even worse. Recently, their perimeter defense has been a revolving door, a far cry from their early-season lockdown play with Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso picking players off constantly. The Bulls' frontcourt defense is desperate enough that they added Tristan Thompson to the team. Vucevic is a skilled offensive player, but his defense is shoddy at best. Antetokounmpo will dominate in this series.
Chicago's offense should be good enough to steal one game against a middling Bucks defense. However, I simply can't imagine the Bulls winning this series. A gentlemen's sweep is the likely outcome.
Prediction: Milwaukee wins in 5
Philadelphia 76ers (4) vs Toronto Raptors (5)
This is the series that most of the people reading my blog will be checking out. You won't be disappointed; this is perhaps the closest of all 8 playoff matchups. Both teams have a legitimate shot at advancing and I can argue it both ways.
The 76ers have the two best players in this series, which usually equates to a winning formula in the postseason. The motivation to get revenge on Toronto for the 2019 Eastern Conference semifinals will be sky-high. The 76ers shoot and make a ton of free throws. All these factors point towards Philly being the heavy favourites. But the Raptors never make things easy.
Despite being the lower seeded team, many experts seem to agree that Toronto will get the better of the 76ers. Philadelphia have the talent and they are very methodical in the play, but the Raptors are a nightmare matchup for any team.
Sure, the Raptors don't have an answer to Joel Embiid and their perimeter shooting has been a weakness this season. However, the Raptors lead the league in random chaotic plays executed per 36. They have the size, the defense and the athleticism to guard spots 1-5 on the floor and finish scoring plays effectively. Nick Nurse has established himself as one of the smartest coaches in the game; if there is anybody who can find a way to stop the Embiid-Harden duo, it's Nurse.
If Philadelphia falls to the Raps, it will be time to reflect on the franchise. Coach Doc Rivers has made some questionable decisions this season and he could be on his way out? Harden hasn't excelled at an individual level since the 76ers' front office mortgaged guaranteed regular season success for an ice-cold guard.
For the Raptors, they are a franchise that are back on the rise, even after losing Kawhi Leonard. They won't be as desperate to get it done, but they'll be trying to show off on national TV in order to stop getting underrated by American media outlets (I'm looking at you, Shaq).
The Raptors' switchability is going to be a nuisance for Philadelphia. Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Thaddeus Young could probably all guard Joel Embiid with some effectiveness. Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are legitimate stars. The Raptors easily have the advantage on the bench compared to the 76ers.
The argument for Philadelphia is that their top-end talent is easily more impactful than Toronto's talent. Though their depth isn't all there, Tyrese Maxey seems like a guy who could have a breakout series against a Toronto team that sometimes struggles to defend against smaller guards.
My unbiased self says that the Raptors will win this in 7 games, but I'm going to pick Philadelphia for one very specific reason. Essentially if the 76ers win, my prediction will be correct, which will mask the disappointment of having my favourite team be eliminated. If the Raptors win, my prediction will be wrong, but that disappointment will be masked by having my favourite team advance. It's genius, right?
Prediction: Philadelphia wins in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix Suns (1) vs New Orleans Pelicans (8)
Chris Paul and Jose Alvarado (Sean Gardner, Getty Images)
As I mentioned earlier, the Suns are the favourites for the NBA championship. Thus, it only makes sense that they are heavy favourites to win this series.
That statement should not be interpreted as disrespect to the Pelicans. After starting the season a dismal 1-12, the Pels have found their rhythm, even without arguably their best player, Zion Williamson. Their first-year coach, Willie Green, has been praised for his motivational speeches. Also, it probably helps New Orleans' chances that Green is their head coach, as he was the assistant to Monty Williams during Phoenix's run to the Finals last year. New Orleans will hope that he has inside information into the Suns' tactics.
It seems unlikely that Williamson will make an appearance in this series, but the trio of CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas been a pretty seamless fit since McCollum was acquired in February. The Pelicans are much more dynamic with CJ in the mix and they can create matchup nightmares against lesser teams.
Unfortunately for them, the Suns are not a lesser team. After winning 64 games in the regular season (8 more than the next-best team), Monty Williams' team is starting to establish themselves as a bona fide juggernaut. I don't use that word lightly. With Chris Paul and Devin Booker, the Suns have two of the best players in the entire NBA. Camron Johnson, Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder are all plus defenders who can shoot the ball well. Deandre Ayton is showing Suns management why he is so valuable with contributions on defense and offense.
The Suns will dominate with their pick-and-roll plays, while their shooting is also good enough to overflow New Orleans. I don't often pick sweeps, but the gap in quality between these two teams just seems too large to ignore.
Prediction: Phoenix wins in 4
Memphis Grizzlies (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (7)
While the Suns are the best team in the league, the Grizzlies are perhaps the second best squad. They were expected to make the playoffs this season, but nobody could have expected the seismic leap that Memphis took to become one of the NBA's very best.
Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant has developed into a legitimate MVP candidate and the odds are tipping him for the Most Improved Player award. The scary part about Memphis is that they may be even better without Morant than they are with him. While that's almost certainly not true, the Grizzlies were 20-5 without Morant on the floor compared to 36-21 with him. That's very impressive and is a testament to coach Taylor Jenkins' in-game management. The dramatic improvements from players like Jaren Jackson Jr, Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks gives the Grizzlies a unit that doesn't need Morant to flourish.
The T-Wolves should not be slept on, though. Coach Chris Finch has found the secret formula of Minnesota playing good offense and good defense simultaneously (hint: it's Patrick Beverley). In Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards, Minnesota has the better star trio on paper. Russell shredded the Grizzlies in their 4 matchups this season, averaging 31.0 points on 56-46-79 shooting splits. Edwards is capable of going ballistic for 40 points on any given night and Towns is a threat from everywhere on the court.
There are a couple of matchups that must be scouted. Firstly, is how the Timberwolves will defend against Morant. Morant can affect a game from the perimeter or in the paint, as he is a dynamic scorer. In the games between these two teams this season, Morant was often matched up with Karl-Anthony Towns, which posed the guard some issues. KAT has really developed as a defender this year and the size advantage he possesses means that unless coach Jenkins can find a way around that matchup, Morant may be completely taken out of the game.
The next is how the Wolves attack Jaren Jackson Jr. Jackson is a premier shot contester and whomever he is matched up with will find it difficult to make shots. If Memphis can throw a decoy and make sure than JJJ is matched up with Towns, it could really impact the series.
These are two young and talented teams that will be very good in 5 years' time. I think Memphis has the edge, but this will be much closer than people think.
Prediction: Memphis wins in 7
Golden State Warriors (3) vs Denver Nuggets (6)
The Warriors had a weird year. First, they were getting carried to the 1 seed by Stephen Curry before his efficiency feel off of a cliff. Then, Klay Thompson returned from his ACL tear, but didn't write any headlines with his performances. Then, Jordan Poole exploded and became Golden State's primary source of offense during the last month of the season. Draymond Green, likely the best defender in the world, has been injured for a vast majority of the season. This has resulted in the Warriors being a team that could possibly be title contenders when healthy, which we haven't seen yet.
The Nuggets are another team besieged by injuries. Without Michael Porter Jr and Jamal Murray, the load has fallen on Nikola Jokic, who delivered a stunning season that I think should warrant him the Most Valuable Player award. Per Bleacher Report, the Nuggets point differential was that of an 18-win team when Jokic was on the bench. However, when he was on the floor, it was more like a 62-win team. That should sum up just how integral Jokic is to this Nuggets team.
I'm very bearish on Denver's chances, as Draymond Green should be raring to go and he is one of the few players in the NBA that match up well with Jokic. As unfair as it is, if Jokic is locked down by Green and Jamal Murray can't make a return to the floor, the Nuggets won't be able to compete.
Another storyline is Steph Curry. Despite having one of his worst seasons in years, he is still tremendously valuable to his team. When Curry is off the floor, the Warriors are outscored by 1.4 points per 100 possessions. Curry is returning from a sprained ligament in his foot and may miss the first two games of the series. Denver need to capitalize on that opportunity.
I think Jordan Poole will continue his good form and make sure that the series is tied 1-1 heading into Denver. After that, Curry should be back and I think that Golden State will outclass their opponents.
Prediction: Golden State wins in 6
Dallas Mavericks (4) vs Utah Jazz (5)
After firing head coach Rick Carlisle, the Mavericks unexpectedly hired Jason Kidd to be their new bench boss and Kidd responded with an impressive debut season in Dallas. The Mavs' defense has been completely transformed since Kidd's arrival and Dallas no longer needs a godly effort from Luka Doncic to help them win playoff games. That's a good thing, too, as Doncic suffered a calf injury in his last game of the season which could keep him out for a vast majority of this series.
That would be a huge blow for Dallas, but they've quietly been very effective even without Doncic. The Kristaps Porzingis trade, which was almost universally hated by Mavs fans, got the team Spencer Dinwiddie, who has been balling since the deal. Even without Doncic on the floor, Dinwiddie-led lineups have a positive net rating of +10.3. However, we can't underestimate the Doncic injury. He is a top-10 player in the league and had been averaging almost 31 points in his last 25 games. Take that out of the lineup and you'll see a major void. It will take a herculean effort from players like Jalen Brunson and Dwight Powell to fill that void.
Utah have had a couple of jarring collapses lately. In recent games against the Los Angeles Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors, the Jazz had at least a 99% chance of victory in each of those games. They lost each one.
The schedule has been tough and an injury to Swiss army knife Joe Ingles hasn't helped. Nevertheless, it's a concerning trend for the Jazz.
However, I do think that Utah will prevail in this series. Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell are too talented as a duo to never figure it out eventually. The Jazz have been rebuilding their bench unit recently and are getting valuable contributions from everybody on their roster. Though Utah's play on paper doesn't look like a team that could beat Dallas, they've been quietly preparing for this series.
It has seemed likely for weeks that this would be the first-round matchup and during that time. the Jazz have been tailoring lineups to deal with a possible small-ball team from the Mavs. They've been working at finding the perfect balance for Rudy Gobert, whether that involves playing on the perimeter or attacking the paint.
Unless Doncic can step back into this series and play just as well as he was before the calf injury, I think Utah holds the advantage...only just.
Prediction: Utah wins in 7
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