MLB 2022 Season Predictions

 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr (Mark Blinch, Getty Images)

    Opening Weekend has come and gone. Thus, it's time for some predictions!

    I kept an eye on some games, including the Blue Jays' 2-0 start to see if I could identify any trends that could help give me the inside scoop. Unfortunately, my opinions weren't really changed at all by the first wave of games. Nevertheless, this is still a prediction article that I spent a lot of time on and made some WILD opinions public.

    In this Sincere Sports article, we have division predictions, hot takes, awards picks and who I think will win the World Series. Let's not waste any more time here and get started with the MLB 2022 season predictions. 

DIVISION STANDINGS

AMERICAN LEAGUE

EAST

1. New York Yankees

    The Yankees' World Series drought is becoming concerning for a franchise of their stature. Minor moves didn't really turn the needle for most projection models, but as you'll see with my takes, I'm making a couple of weird predictions. New York is banking on a lot of returns to form from their pitchers and hoping for some injury luck, but with an MVP candidate in Aaron Judge in their lineup, I could see a division crown.

Bold Prediction: The Yankees acquire starting pitcher Frankie Montas in the next month

2. Tampa Bay Rays

    Tampa Bay's pitching doesn't look nearly as impenetrable as it was last year, but I wouldn't be so sure. Players like Shane Baz and Drew Rasmussen are ready to take a real step this season. Under the tutelage of Tampa Bay's coaching staff, I'm expecting a huge season from former AL Cy Young winner Corey Kluber in Tampa Bay. I've learned to not bet against the Rays, so I'm not going to do so.

Bold Prediction: Wander Franco wins the AL batting title

3. Toronto Blue Jays

    The Jays look like a scary team this season. They have a top-tier rotation and a batting order that will have opposing pitchers shaking in their boots. However, I'm still skeptical to call them contenders. They lost some key pieces in this offseason and I'm not entirely sure that they improved very much. Thus, I'm not sure why everybody is so quick to call them favourites. Nevertheless, they are a talented, young team. 

Bold Prediction: Matt Chapman finishes second on the Jays in home runs

4. Boston Red Sox

    Trevor Story is a marquee signing, but he comes with tons of risk. Also, he doesn't address the major issues with Boston's pitching staff. They are really relying on Michael Wacha and Nick Pivetta to take steps that I don't know if they are capable of taking. Despite an impressive season last year, the Red Sox are clearly the 4th best team in the American League East. 

Bold Prediction: The Red Sox finish with a losing record

5. Baltimore Orioles

    Possibly the easiest pick in this whole article. The Orioles might take a step, but in a division full of very good teams, unless young phenom Adley Rutschman can put in an MVP campaign or if Cedric Mullins can build off last year's breakout, the O's are destined for the bottom. They'll field a competitive team in the latter half of the year, but I'm confident with this pick.

Bold Prediction: Adley Rutschman ISN'T a top-5 rookie in the AL

CENTRAL

1. Minnesota Twins

    I told you that I'll be making some wild picks here. The Chicago White Sox are clearly the favourites here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a huge jump from Minnesota. Carlos Correa is a bona fide superstar and Sonny Gray is a great starting pitcher. If they can get full seasons from Alex Kiriloff and Byron Buxton, a division title isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Bold Prediction: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are both top-10 MVP candidates

2. Chicago White Sox

    The White Sox are a star-studded outfit. Believe me when I say that I think Chicago will win this division, but I feel making the risk with the Twins pick is worth it. The White Sox should get growth from Michael Kopech and Luis Robert, but they'll face more of a challenge to reclaim the division this season. 

Bold Prediction: Lucas Giolito has an ERA over 4.00

3. Detroit Tigers

    This bottom-3 of the Central will all be very tightly packed. However, the Tigers' upside gives them the point over Cleveland and KC. Eduardo Rodriguez has ace-like upside and I can't help but think that Javier Baez is being underrated by the general public. They'll be reinforced by prospects like Spencer Torkelson and Ryan Kreidler pretty soon. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal are also two good pitchers.

Bold Prediction: Eduardo Rodriguez is a top-3 Cy Young nominee

4. Cleveland Guardians

    The Guardians have inked their face of the franchise, Jose Ramirez, to a long-term deal. I don't think that completely rules out the possibility of a trade, but it gives them a focal point for at least a few months. Triston McKenzie, Zach Plesac and Amed Rosario have upside, but as of yet, I haven't seen enough to believe in any of them, except McKenzie. 

Bold Prediction: Steven Kwan leads all rookies in hits

5. Kansas City Royals

    The Royals are skipping service time with their top prospect Bobby Witt Jr, which I think is a mistake. Though I would say that the Royals are the third best team in this division on paper, I could see them disappointing. It will be hard for Witt to live up to the expectations of the general media and if Kansas City can't get growth from their young pitchers, they could struggle.

Bold Prediction: The Royals trade Whit Merrifield at the deadline

WEST

1. Houston Astros

    Despite losing their star Carlos Correa, I think Houston will win this division. Jeremy Pena is a guy who I would keep an eye on as Correa's replacement. Alex Bregman will take a step up after a difficult 2021. The most underrated aspect here is the presence of Justin Verlander. To me, Houston have a buffer year before the rest of the division catches up with them. 

Bold Prediction: Jeremy Pena is a top-3 rookie

2. Los Angeles Angels

    When you have two of the best players in the league, it's hard to be as futile as the Angels have been. This is the year that things regress to the mean. I expect lots more run production from a healthy Mike Trout and a healthy Anthony Rendon. A Patrick Sandoval breakout and Noah Syndergaard's arrival could give them an effective pitching staff. 

Prediction: Patrick Sandoval has the best ERA of any Angels pitcher

3. Seattle Mariners

    This is the year that the Mariners are widely tipped to take control of the AL West balance of power. I'm a bit hesitant to declare them as the 2022 AL West champs though. Despite a good season from a record perspective last season, the Pythagorean model considered them as a bit lucky. They had a -51 run differential and I think that expecting a repeat of Robbie Ray's AL Cy Young season is wishful thinking. 

Bold Prediction: Jarred Kelenic will hit below .220 again

4. Texas Rangers

    The Rangers invested a lot in the offseason, bringing in three impactful players in Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Jon Gray. This low placement of the Rangers has less to do with them and more to do with the rest of the team. The Rangers were awful last season, and though the three guys they brought in are good, I don't think it can completely change Texas' fortunes. 

Bold Prediction: Nathaniel Lowe has a 20/20 season

5. Oakland Athletics

    The A's are going to be utterly hopeless in 2022. The team is obviously tanking and though they got good prospect returns from their firesale, it won't make for a very competitive baseball team in 2022. Frankie Montas will likely be dealt and it will make an already dreadful Oakland team even less enjoyable to watch.

Bold Prediction: Catcher Sean Murphy gets an MVP vote

NATIONAL LEAGUE

EAST

1. New York Mets

    The Mets had a gutsy offseason and I feel confident in declaring them the 2022 NL East champs. Though Jacob de Grom's injury issues are worrying, once he gets firing, the Mets are going to have a terrifying rotation. Francisco Lindor should improve and the Mets' depth rivals all but the Dodgers. They are a bit of a sleeper this year.

Bold Prediction: Edwin Diaz wins NL Reliever of the Year

2. Atlanta Braves

    The Braves won the World Series last year, so it may seem perplexing to place them second in their own division. However, Freddie Freeman is a major loss and that will hurt Atlanta mentally and from an offensive perspective. The bullpen is great and Matt Olson is a decent Freeman replacement, but I can't help but think that a disappointing regular season awaits.

Bold Prediction: Eddie Rosario hits more home runs than Ronald Acuna Jr

3. Philadelphia Phillies

    The Phillies added two big bats in Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber to what was already a dynamic offense. Unfortunately, they are stuck in a loaded division and their atrocious defense will almost certainly hold them back. I really like the Corey Knebel addition to their bullpen, but they still need a trade acquisition to solidify the back end.

Bold Prediction: The Phillies have a top-10 staff ERA in the majors

4. Miami Marlins

    The Marlins will be fun to watch this season, but I expect they'll come up short in the playoff picture. Sandy Alcantara is a very good pitcher and he should provide optimism for the Marlins fanbase. However, I feel that there are too many bets here. Miami needs players like Jesus Sanchez and Lewin Diaz to produce if they want to hang with the rest of the NL East.

Bold Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins the Home Run Derby

5. Washington Nationals

    Despite having arguably the best player in baseball in Juan Soto, the literal reincarnation of Ted Williams, the Nationals have a very bad team. Their pitching staff is a nightmare and they are severely lacking in lineup depth. Soto could win MVP and the Nats would still finish last in the division.

Bold Prediction: Patrick Corbin leads the rotation...with a 4.47 ERA (yikes)

CENTRAL

1. Milwaukee Brewers

    Though I'm still skeptical of Milwaukee's offense, especially if Christian Yelich continues to stagnate, they have enough pitching to dominate a weak division. The Brewers are almost like the baby brother of the Tampa Bay Rays, as they turn anything they touch into gold. Don't be surprised when some player you've never heard of hits 30 home runs and 70 RBIs for the Brewers this year.

Bold Prediction: Freddy Peralta is the best Brewers starter

2. Cincinnati Reds

    I know what you might be thinking. Is the author of this blog insane? I assure you, I am not. Look, baseball always has one of two random teams punch way above their weight; look at the 2021 Giants. The Reds are my candidate for that this year. They have two impressive rookie pitcher in Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, a legit MVP candidate in Jonathan India and the ageless wonder, Joey Votto.

Bold Prediction: Picking them to finish second isn't bold enough for you? Okay, Jake Fraley, who was acquired by Cincinnati in the Jesse Winker trade, will hit more homers than Winker

3. St. Louis Cardinals

    Not only am I high on Cincinnati, but I'm low on the Cardinals. They had a bad offseason, barely improving what was a lackluster team last year. I think health could plague St. Louis again and I wouldn't be surprised to see players like Tyler O'Neill regress to the mean. Keep an eye on Steven Matz, though. I think he's going to have a very good year.     

Bold Prediction: The Cardinals will trade two key pieces at the deadline

4. Chicago Cubs

    I'm a bit skeptical on the Cubs, as well. They are relying on a lot of breakouts to solidify the middle of their lineup and rotation. I think this year will be better as a transition year for the Cubs as they look to determine their direction for the next half-decade. 

Bold Prediction: Seiya Suzuki hits .200 for the first few months of the season and still finishes third in Rookie of the Year voting

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

    Even in a weak division, the Pirates have little optimism of finishing in a position other than last. I think a desperate contender will throw some huge assets at Pittsburgh for Bryan Reynolds, which will make them even worse. However, I do think this will be a good season from a progress perspective for Pittsburgh. 

Bold Prediction: Ke'Bryan Hayes wins the Platinum Glove

WEST

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

    This is one of the most stacked teams we've seen in a decade. Power, starting pitching, bullpen, fielding. Whatever you ask for, the Dodgers seem to have it. It will take a monumental collapse for them to not run away with this division. They'll be looking for an answer to the Cody Bellinger conundrum, but when you have Bobby Miller as one of your backup options in the bullpen, you should be good.

Bold Prediction: Freddie Freeman finishes lower in MVP voting than his replacement, Matt Olson

2. San Diego Padres

    I feel like people are sleeping on the Friars this year. Their rotation consists of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell and Mike Clevinger. That can challenge the Dodgers in terms of talent. Francisco Tatis Jr's injury woes will hurt, but I expect one of either Ha-seong Kim or CJ Abrams to fill the void at shortstop and lead the Padres to a playoff berth.    

Bold Prediction: The Padres have the best rotation in the division

3. San Francisco Giants

    The Giants were the league's biggest surprise last season. Farhan Zaidi established himself as one of the brightest minds in the game. Though they suffered some free agent losses, I liked the addition of Carlos Rodon. It will be hard for San Fran to replicate the magic of 2021, but with players like Logan Webb, Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt all very capable, they should challenge for second in the West.

Bold Prediction: The Giants have two top-10 CY Young nominees

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

    I think Arizona are going to surprise this season. They are one of the few projected bottom-feeders with a legitimate star in their ranks (Ketel Marte) and I'm expecting the versatile Daulton Varsho to become one this year. Pitchers like Drey Jameson and Ryne Nelson should play games this year and give Arizona a deeper staff that isn't just Zac Gallen and a bunch of random dudes.

Bold Prediction: Seth Beer hits 30 home runs

5. Colorado Rockies

    Coors Field is a double-edged sword. Colorado could have 5 30-homer players this season and still finish last in the division. Their pitching staff isn't very good whatsoever and I would be stunned if German Marquez wasn't dealt. This team is relying on Kris Bryant to go back to his 2016 form for any kind of relevance.

Bold Prediction: The Rockies have the worst record in the league

AWARDS

AL MVP

1. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Houston Astros

    If the Yankees are to win the AL East, it'll be on the back of Aaron Judge, their best player. He has the hit tool to put up huge stats on a good team, which could give him the award.

   In any other season, Vladdy would have already won an MVP, but Shohei Ohtani’s historic 2021 season leaves the Blue Jays superstar without an individual awards. This could change in 2022, as Guerrero is possibly the best hitter in the world.

    I'm expecting a major bounceback for Alex Bregman this season. He remains Houston's most important hitter and at his best, Bregman should be in this conversation.

AL Rookie of the Year

1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers

2. Bobby Witt Jr, SS, Kansas City Royals

3. Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros

    Torkelson has an elite hit tool and I think he is ready to mash in the middle of Detroit's order. The improved lineup should give him some RBI chances and I feel that Torkelson will take advantage.

    The hype around Witt is unbelievable and I need to see him in action before I declare if it deserved, but from the early-season highlight packs, he looks like the real deal. 

    I'm a believer in Pena because the Astros are a believer in Pena. One of the most successful franchises of the last 5 years deemed Pena a worthy replacement for Carlos Correa, so he must be good. 

AL Cy Young

1. Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

2. Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros

3. Robbie Ray, SP, Seattle Mariners

    I've gone for some major hipster picks in just about all the major award categories, so I had to play it safe with Cole. He's got everything you want in a pitcher: velocity, movement, the whole shebang.

    Possibly the most under-the-radar free agent move this summer was the Astros bringing back Justin Verlander. He's ruthlessly consistent and will get good run support from his team. 

    Though it may seem like an impossible task for Robbie Ray to replicate last season's form, he's in a pitcher-friendly park and under the tutelage of Pete Walker, his pitching style seems to have transformed. I think last year's success is sustainable. 

NL MVP

1. Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets

2. Juan Soto, RF, Washington Nationals

3. Jonathan India, 2B, Cincinnati Reds

    There are no obvious MVP picks in the Senior Circuit, so predicting a bounceback from the talented Francisco Lindor is a good bet. He's dynamic when all is clicking and it has to be better than last year.

    Despite playing for a very bad team, Soto is the favourite for this award. That shows just how incredible he is. The lack of winning argument will be used against him, but Soto could slash .475/575/1.050 this season, which might be good enough for him to win.

    If my predicted Reds surprise is to happen, sophomore Jonathan India will be at the center of it. He's quick and a very good hitter. I don't think India is a flash in the pan; he's a real superstar. 

NL Rookie of the Year

1. Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

2. Keibert Ruiz, C, Washington Nationals

3. Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs

    Since Lodolo was drafted by Cincinnati, I've been a big fan of his. He's finally arrived to the big leagues and I think he is going to become a leader of this staff very soon. Lodolo will showcase electric stuff this season, Rookie of the Year or not.

    I didn't mind the Trea Turner trade for Washington last year, mainly because of Ruiz. He has a lot of power and I think he's capable enough to be a good pitch framer with the Nats. 

    I have already predicted that Suzuki was going to struggle in the early stages of his career, but I think we're looking at a parallel to Cade Cunningham in the NBA. Suzuki will be so ballistic down the stretch to thrust himself into the conversation.

NL Cy Young

1. Walker Buehler, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Max Scherzer, SP, New York Mets

3. Yu Darvish, SP, San Diego Padres

    Buehler is a truly elite pitcher. He was absolutely white-hot at times last year and I think his strikeout rate could improve even still. On a team that will rack up lots of wins. Buehler is the favourite for the award.

    Scherzer never goes away, does he? He's still able to pound the strike zone and he seems to be getting better each year. He's isn't as much of a workhorse anymore, but with Jacob de Grom's injury issues, I think Scherzer will need to be New York's ace.

    Yeah, another weird pick. Darvish's track record is one of a pitcher that takes a while to get going when he joins a new team. He'll be more comfortable and I think his pitches are accurate enough to put him in Cy Young conversation.

WORLD SERIES PREDICTIONS

    Blue Jays fans, cover your eyes, because I think this is the year that the New York Yankees finally break their World Series drought. They are relying on a lot of "maybes" in their rotation, but as we know, it isn't always the best team that wins the World Series. They have Aaron Judge, my MVP, who will have a chip on his shoulder. They could get a fully healthy season from Giancarlo Stanton. They have the prospect depth to make a superstar addition at the deadline.

    Their NL opponent will be the Milwaukee Brewers. They were my pick last year before Devin Williams injured his hand. Defense wins championships and the Brew Crew are a run prevention machine. Not many teams will be able to deal with a 1-4 combo of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. They match up well with every team in the National League, but I think they'll just come up short in 6 games against the Yankees.

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