The Leafs celebrate the OT winner (Chris Tanouye, Getty Images)
Mark Giordano's overtime winner helped the Leafs avoid a loss in an obvious trap game against the Ottawa Senators.
Here are my 5 takeaways from the win in Canada's capital.
1. Giordano Trade Already Worth It
Trades like the Mark Giordano deal are precisely why I can't blame the Leafs' lack of recent success on Kyle Dubas. His critics will say that he hasn't made any moves that have turned the needle in time for playoff season. Let's just ignore that Dubas has been the person to bring in John Tavares and Jake Muzzin, while also locking up Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner for reasonable contracts. Dubas has already paid the debt that he owed Toronto fans after his nightmare deadline last year with a masterclass at this season's deadline.
Ilya Lyubushkin has generally been very good in Toronto, even though he made a mistake that led to a Senators goal last night. Getting Nick Ritchie's contract off the books allowed Dubas to pursue a deal for Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell from the Seattle Kraken. Both those players have been welcome additions to the Leafs.
Blackwell has been the Leafs' most consistent fourth-liner and though his offensive game hasn't kicked off just yet, he's a real workhorse that battles hard each night. The Leafs needed a cheap forward addition and I can't complain with what Blackwell has brought to table.
However, the real headliner of that trade was Mark Giordano. The former Norris Trophy winner had a decent season in Seattle, considering his team was pretty awful around him. However, when Dubas dished out two second-round picks and a third-round pick for a 38-year old pending unrestricted free agent, there were some eyebrows raised around the league. Well, Giordano is proving all the Dubas critics wrong in his brief Leafs tenure.
Here's a stat for you: of all the Leafs' trade deadline additions, Giordano's 8 points in 13 games already eclipses the point total of all their additions from last year's deadline combined. Yes, that included Nick Foligno, who was acquired for a first-round pick. Have I mentioned that Giordano is a defenseman?
But it's not just the counting stats where "Gio" has excelled. He has blocked 26 shots, most among all Leafs in that time. He has added a physical element to the Leafs' game even when Jake Muzzin is absent, with 21 hits. Even at the ripe old age of 38, he is still munching minutes on the back end, averaging almost 20 per game. His xG% of 60% is in the 90th percentile of the league since his acquisition.
With a matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning looking likely, there is no guarantee that the Leafs will even win a round this year. However, there is no denying that the Giordano trade has been head and shoulders above any Leafs deadline rental in the past half-decade.
2. Marner the Sniper
Jonas Siegel of The Athletic has a pretty unreal stat after another two-goal outburst for Mitch Marner. Marner has busted his career high in goals this year. However, before this campaign, his career high for goals in a single season was 26 goals. That's fairly respectable for a guy who is typically pass-first. Here's where the craziness comes in.
In Marner's last 40 games, he has 27 goals. That's right. Marner has more goals in his last 40 games than he has ever had in any full season. Prorated over 82 games, Marner's 27 goals in 40 games is a stunning 55 goals. While he won't get anywhere close to that due to being on the shelf for too long and having a slow start to the season, his 33 goals in 66 games so far this year is by far his best ever season from a goal-scoring perspective.
Marner's 16.3 shooting percentage is by far a career high and his 8.8 shots per 60 is also the highest mark in the NHL. His 8.7 goals above expected is top 20 league-wide, ahead of notorious snipers like Patrik Laine, David Pastrnak and Sidney Crosby. Per MoneyPuck, Marner's shooting talent is 2.8% above league average.
Even when he was playing for the OHL London Knights, Marner's ratio between goals and assists wasn't quite as lucrative as it is this season. He has become a legitimate goal-scorer.
Even with just 7 games left, it isn't out of the question that Marner reaches 40 goals this season, unless Sheldon Keefe starts resting him for the playoffs (I'll touch on that in a second). Saying that Mitch Marner would score 35 goals in an NHL season at the start of this campaign would have got you blocked on Twitter by hundreds of people. Now it's a very real possibility.
3. Will Keefe Rest the Stars?
The Leafs have by no means guaranteed anything other than a playoff spot yet. Though they are 4 points ahead of Tampa Bay in the race for home ice advantage, they still have to play Florida, Boston and Tampa themselves. The Lightning's schedule is much more forgiving and they could absolutely swoop in and steal second place in the Atlantic Division, especially now that they seem to have found a bit of rhythm offensively.
However, it may be time to start to consider whether resting the stars will be a good idea. I'm not saying that Keefe should rest each of them at the same time. All I'm saying that once Auston Matthews reaches 60 goals, he probably doesn't need to face Detroit on a random Tuesday evening. Once Mitch Marner gets to 100 points, the Leafs are probably better off letting him get some rest in the stands instead of fielding him for 22 minutes against the Philadelphia Flyers.
Keefe must find the right balance between keeping his top players in good shape without overworking them. Any injury to one of their top 4 guys could spell the end of their chances, especially in the brutal Eastern Conference.
4. Key Lineup Decision
I don't think many Leafs fans regret the decision that Keefe made a few weeks ago to demote William Nylander to the third line and promote Ilya Mikheyev to the second line. It has allowed Mikheyev to show his offensive potential and Nylander has been much more responsible defensively with David Kampf and Pierre Engvall compared to when he was with John Tavares and Alex Kerfoot.
However, there did seem to be an inevitability that eventually the lines would revert and the experiment came to an end. That suggestion came to be on Saturday in Ottawa.
Keefe reunited Nylander with Tavares and Kerfoot as well as bringing Mikheyev back with Kampf and Engvall. The results were pretty good.
The Tavares line had an xG% of 76% in 5:31 of ice time, whereas the Kampf line held a share of 100% of the expected goals in 5:04. It's hard to draw conclusions in such a small sample size, but I am confident in saying that Keefe feels as if these are the best line combinations.
It's nice that we know that a different combo works, in case these trios revert to their struggles from March. However, it's a relief to see the groups back together again.
5. Tim Stutzle is Very Good
Sportsnet showed a very interesting graphic that really put Tim Stutzle's brief NHL career into perspective.
Stutzle, who was a top-5 pick like Mitch Marner, has had a similarly successful second NHL season to Marner. As I already discussed in this article, Mitch Marner is pretty darn good, so if you have similar numbers to him, you're doing something right.
Hockey fans couldn't help but feel a little bit disappointed with Stutzle's first season in Ottawa, especially after he put up 15 points in 10 games at two U-20 World Junior Championship tournaments.
This season also got off to a mixed start. He didn't score a goal until his 14th game of the season. In his first 29 games, the German had 5 goals and 9 assists for 14 points. However, in 43 games since the calendar flipped to 2022, Stutzle has hit another level. He has 15 goals and 23 assists for 38 points in 43 games. That's a pace of 28 goals and 44 assists for 72 points over 82 games. For a 20-year old kid, that's very impressive.
If you take his full-season numbers and stretch them over a whole season, they are a little less impressive, but still worthy of praise. Stutzle's pace over a full season is 23 goals and 36 assists for 59 points. In his sophomore NHL season, it's hard to ask for much more than that.
Let's consider Marner for a second. Sure, his 22 goals and 47 assists for 69 points over an 82-game season are more impressive, but it's closer than you think, especially when you consider the contrasting natures of the 2017-18 Leafs and this year's Senators team. That Leafs team made the playoffs and went 7 games with a good Boston Bruins team. The Sens from 2021-22 are nowhere near that level.
Let's just say I won't be surprised when "Timmy Stu" puts up 80+ points next season.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK
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