Kerfoot after scoring the shootout winner (Patrick Smith, Getty Images)
The Leafs bounced back from two consecutive disheartening losses to the Florida teams with a gritty shootout victory over the Washington Capitals.
Here are my 5 takeaways as the Leafs all but sealed home-ice advantage in the first-round.
1. Load Management
The big news from the Leafs' lineup was that both John Tavares and Timothy Liljegren. "Oh no, are they injured as well?" was what we all collectively thought, before seeing that Tavares was listed as out for "load management". Load management is typically a basketball term (often associated with Kawhi Leonard, I might add), but essentially it means what it says. These high performance athletes play lots of games in a short period of time and occasionally they need to manage the load.
In this case, it's clear that coach Sheldon Keefe felt that Tavares and Liljegren deserved a rest. In Liljegren's case, he has gotten beat up over the last few games, but it seemed like he was also part of the load management strategy.
I'm expecting some more load management in the last two games of the season. Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews will likely keep playing until they reach the 100-point and 60-goal mark respectively. If that happens against Detroit on Tuesday, expect those two to skip out against Boston on the last day of the season. Also, Jack Campbell will likely only play one of the last two games. Whether that be against Detroit or Boston, you simply can't afford any injury or huge step in Campbell's workload right before the playoffs. As I mentioned in my last 5 takeaways, the Leafs are going to be pinning their hopes solely on "Soupy".
The Leafs' injuries to their bluelines likely mean that Morgan Rielly and TJ Brodie will lace up for both of the last two regular season games. If Rasmus Sandin does return from his knee injury though, expect him to step in. As we saw from the game against Washington, Keefe isn't scared to put Nick Abruzzese in the lineup to fill a void. Ondrej Kase could also return in the near future, but that doesn't seem likely.
I think load management is a smart move for Keefe. The Leafs now need to pick up just 1 point (or Tampa needs to lose 1 point). In other words, the only way Toronto could lose home-ice advantage is if they lose both their remaining games in regulation AND if Tampa Bay wins their last three games. That's unlikely enough that you may as well take a risk and get your stars ready for what promises to be a ruthless series against the Tampa Bay Lightning.
That's right. It's not confirmed just yet, but Tampa's win over Florida last night essentially means that they will be Toronto's first round opponent. Yikes.
2. Kallgren Settles Down
After one of the most brutal games of his professional career against Tampa Bay in his last game, Erik Kallgren rebounded in a major way with a very composed performance. Though Marcus Johansson's goal was a little soft, Kallgren was not at fault for anything during this game. He bailed out one of his team's less convincing offensive performances with a 34-save game.
The most impressive stretch for Kallgren was in the shootout. With the game on the line, Kallgren made himself look big and he was only beat once on 7 attempts. Though I am no goalie whisperer (my mind works much better when I'm analyzing cumulative shift effects and offensive principles), even I could tell that the rookie netminder had his fundamentals down.
The movement was fluid and Kallgren stared down some very skilled players in his first ever NHL shootout. It was one of Kallgren's best games in a Leafs jersey and possibly his best since the stunning debut against the Carolina Hurricanes.
I feel that Kallgren has earned a role as Toronto's third goalie next year. I suspect that Petr Mrazek will be in Arizona by next year. If Toronto wants to be a real contender again next year, I don't know if Kallgren should be the backup. I could see the Leafs dealing a mid-round pick for a player like Anthony Stolarz, who they've been linked with forever. We also can't ignore the fact that Jack Campbell is a pending UFA and he is absolutely free to leave Toronto for a richer contract. In either of those hypothetical universes, Kallgren should prepare for an increased workload.
Another thing to consider is the acquisition that Toronto made today. 2022 Hobey Baker Award winner Dryden McKay signed a two-year deal with the AHL Toronto Marlies. McKay was brilliant in the NCAA, winning the award for best collegiate player and setting the record for single-season wins. He is currently serving a PED suspension, but McKay will be eligible for training camp next season and he could challenge for a job. Kallgren will need to be sharp to hold off McKay next year, because he was very impressive this season.
3. Ilya Mikheyev is a Star
I was terrified when Ilya Mikheyev seemed to jam his wrist against Alex Ovechkin's body in the second period. It looked like a dangerous play, particularly for a guy who has a long history of wrist/hand/finger injuries. "Cobra" has been one of the Leafs' most lethal forwards this season and with Michael Bunting on the injured reserve, he is now one of Toronto's most important players. In a series against Tampa Bay, we were all looking forward to seeing Mikheyev blazing down the wing.
However, this possible hand injury threatened to ruin all of that. Luckily, Mikheyev shook it off and got back on the ice. Almost immediately, Mikheyev stickhandled the puck with ease down the ice before dumping it in. He looked just fine, but I still had a lingering concern. That is, I had a lingering concern until he ripped home his 20th of the season to cut the deficit to 3-2.
It was a beautiful solo effort that unlike most of Mikheyev's goals, started in the offensive zone. The Russian picked up the puck and with speed, he hurtled around the ice before taking a quick wrister that got past Vitek Vanececk. It was the culmination of what has been an epic transformation for the formerly fragile winger. If Toronto end up making noise in the postseason, Mikheyev will be a huge reason for that.
4. Making Sense of Injury Absences
The Leafs would have had a tough time beating Tampa Bay with a fully healthy roster, especially now that the Lightning are clicking again (they've outscored opponents 22-7 over their last 3 games). However, injuries to key players are threatening to ruin all the hard work that Toronto has done this season.
Ondrej Kase, Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin are all players that I personally feel would at least get a game in the playoffs. Kase would inject so much energy into what has been a stale fourth line. Although Muzzin has struggled, he is a playoff performer and his experience would be valuable to the Maple Leafs. Sandin has been such an impactful player in his breakout year and I'd like to see him with a player like Mark Giordano. However, the big question mark is Michael Bunting.
Luckily, we had good news today. On the First Up radio show, TSN hockey analyst Darren Dreger reported that Bunting should be back for postseason action. I don't expect him to make the game 1 lineup. Who do I expect you may ask? Well, here's my best guess.
Nylander-Matthews-Marner
Mikheyev-Tavares-Kerfoot
Engvall-Kampf-Blackwell
Clifford-Spezza-Simmonds
Rielly-Holl
Muzzin-Brodie
Giordano-Liljegren
Campbell
Kallgren
The obvious exclusion is Ilya Lyubushkin, but I feel like it would be tough to justify knocking Holl out of the lineup for the "Russian Bear" considering Lyubsuhkin has struggled lately. Either way, this lineup is quite good, but you would definitely hope that at least two of Kase, Sandin or Bunting will be back by at least game 2. Also, I can't shake the feeling that I would rather Nick Robertson over Kyle Clifford on Toronto's fourth line.
5. Caps are a Sleeper
Don't sleep on the Caps. It seemed likely that they would face the Florida Panthers in the first round, which would have been a tough matchup. However, Pittsburgh's recent struggles mean that Washington actually has a higher points percentage than the Penguins. This could spell a playoff series against the New York Rangers. I do truly believe that the Capitals can beat Florida or New York.
The Capitals had a great month, picking up some signature wins. Meanwhile, Florida's record is very inflated thanks to a 16-6 record after regulation and there are some defensive concerns propping up. The Rangers' underlying numbers don't inspire confidence and Igor Shesterkin would be under a lot of pressure to deliver in his first real playoff run.
The Capitals have kept it close with Florida all year. They've won 4-3, and lost 5-4 on two separate occasions, once on 3-v-3 overtime, which doesn't come up in playoff hockey. Washington also has a big 5-1 win against the Rangers under their belts.
The one big worry with Washington is Alex Ovechkin. The sniper has been red-hot recently, but he was injured after a weird play following a breakaway in the game against the Leafs. If he can't return, this blurb is essentially useless; they would have no chance. But if he is back, I could see an upset brewing.
Washington had seemingly been underperforming this season, yet they are getting hot at the right time and their .633 points percentage is a respectable 11th in the NHL. Don't count them out.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
Comments
Post a Comment