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5 Takeaways: TOR 2-FLA 3 (OT)

 

Jack Campbell (Sam Navarro, USA Today)

    The Florida Panthers managed to erase yet another multi-goal deficit against the Leafs.
    Here are my 5 takeaways from the close game in the Sunshine State.

1. Jack Campbell Getting his Mojo Back

    If you watched any of Toronto's series against the Montreal Canadiens last year, you would know that goalies can absolutely carry a bad team to a series victory. It's why I don't want to play against the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have the most consistently great goaltender in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy. Ever since 2013, the Leafs have always had the second-best netminder. Although it will be difficult for the Leafs to have a better goalie than Tampa Bay in the first round, Jack Campbell seems to be up to the task.
    Campbell's struggles in the first few months of 2022 were very concerning, especially after Petr Mrazek went out with a groin injury. However, he seems to be back. 
    Campbell has had a resurgence lately and he had yet another great game against Florida. Toronto would not have picked up a point if not for Campbell. To be fair, Florida wouldn't have picked up a point if not for Sergei Bobrovsky. 
    Either way, if Campbell can get back to his form from late 2021, Toronto has a legitimate chance to do some damage.

2. Purposeful Effort Comes Up Short

    I can't get mad with this loss. In my power rankings today, I named Florida as the number 1 team in the league. They are almost certainly going to win the President's Trophy as regular season champions. Despite that, Toronto bounced back from en embarrassing loss against Tampa Bay to bring the Panthers to overtime. I'll take it. 
    They worked hard and made Sergei Bobrovsky make some tough stops. They had plenty of odd-man rushes to try to give themselves the lead, but it never worked out. I don't think Leafs fans will be frustrated with this result. They can clearly compete with Florida, which would bode well if they both meet in the second round. The Leafs have gone 1-0-2 against the Panthers this season, with a +1 goal differential. That would be quite the series. But I'm getting ahead of myself. 
    The Leafs have a couple of easier games to try to seal home-ice advantage in the playoffs. If they can beat Washington and Detroit, they'll seal second place in the Atlantic Division, despite their lacklustre effort against Tampa Bay on Thursday. It's been a good season for them.

3. Matthews Looks Good on Return

    Auston Matthews probably should have scored last night. Either way, it was still a legitimately great game from the Hart Trophy favourite. He had dozens of opportunities and he didn't shy away from any net-front battles with Florida's defensemen. I was really looking to see if Matthews would be active on his return and he certainly was. He did everything expect score.
    Though you do expect a goal, particularly with the looks that Matthews got, it was encouraging. I don't think that his nagging injury will hinder him in the postseason. 
    As I've been saying multiple times this season, Toronto needs Matthews and Marner at their very best to do anything in the playoffs. Let's hope that this game was a sign of things to come, considering Marner was also quite good against Florida.

4. Bunting Injury Brings Up Bad Memories

    Why can't anything go right for the Leafs?
    Despite already having injuries to Rasmus Sandin, Jake Muzzin and Ondrej Kase, Bunting had to leave the game in Florida. Whether it was due to the puck to the face or his awkward fall behind the net, he is going to miss some time, according to Sheldon Keefe.
    With just three regular season games remaining, this is the worst possible time for an injury to a key first-line player. Bunting has provided a stunning $12.4 million in terms of value to the Leafs this year, according to Dom Luszczyszyn's model. Being alongside Marner and Matthews obviously helps, but it's due to Bunting that the Leafs' first line has been even more effective than it was with Zach Hyman. 
    There is still a chance that Bunting returns in time for the playoffs, but this is still scary.
    In the meantime, Keefe fielded a deadly line of William Nylander-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner and the trio dominated. They held 97% of the expected goals in 8:43. The shot attempts were 19-3 in favour of Toronto during that stretch. This is a very interesting combo and it'll be interesting to see if Keefe continues with this line for the next week of regular season action.

5. Panthers are a Wagon

    Boy, the Panthers are good. They've now won 13 consecutive games. They've scored more goals than any other team in the salary cap era. Their goaltender, Sergei Bobrvosky, has finally had a good season and yet defense is the biggest concern for them. In Claude Giroux, they have a complementary star who can do tons on the second line. 
    Whichever team has to face the Panthers in the playoffs has to be prepared for a tough series. This team is excellent and if they don't win their first series since 1996, there will be some major soul-searching as to why this season didn't pay off.


ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTWENDED

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