The fourth line celebrates (Andrew Lahodynskyj, Getty Images)
The Leafs comfortably beat a woeful Philadelphia Flyers team by a score of 5-2 as the season winds down.
Here are my 5 takeaways from the victory at Scotiabank Arena.
1. Campbell Brings the Heat
I said during my last takeaways that if Campbell can play at anywhere near his November form that the Leafs truly should be considered Stanley Cup contenders. "Soupy" proved me right in the game against the Flyers.
The Leafs had an imperfect game against Philadelphia, but because of Campbell's excellence between the pipes, I never felt worried that the Leafs would lose that game. One of my favourite stats recently (from X-Kyle on Twitter), was that the Leafs are now 35-3-1 in games that they've gotten goaltending with a .900 save percentage. Those are elite numbers and .900 SV% really isn't all that high.
Well, Campbell had a .949 this game. He looked very comfortable, making some tough saves to preserve the lead. He was only beat by a chaotic moment in the crease and a beautiful shot by rookie Ronnie Attard. We can't ask for a .949 every night, but the fact is that Campbell has had enough games like this the season is very reassuring.
I really think that it's perfectly possible that Campbell can stay at .920 for an entire playoff series. Although the Leafs will likely play Tampa Bay, who have the most consistently great goalie in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy, it seems like they would be the favourites if Campbell can be that good.
When the Leafs are getting good goaltending, there seems to be some sort of rhythm that gets the team going. All in all, I'm very excited about the prospect of Campbell getting back to his best.
2. The Old Guys Combine
One of the best moments of the entire Leafs season occurred last night. The Mark Giordano-Wayne Simmonds-Jason Spezza veteran trio (with 109 years and 3,267 games between them) all combined in the second period for one of the nicest goals in recent weeks of hockey. It was very heart-warming to see the three all go together to score a goal. However, these takeaways are about cold hard facts and what we learned about the game, so there was more to this moment than just a story.
What I learned from this moment is that there are now clear favourites for the fourth line role. Though Keefe has been going mad scientist lately with weird lines (which I'll touch on later), this goal seemed to be a symbolic showing about who will be occupying the fourth line come playoff time. To me, unless Ondrej Kase is absolutely cleared to play physical playoff hockey, the fourth line will be Colin Blackwell-Jason Spezza-Wayne Simmonds. These three, particularly Spezza, have had a good week and they seem to be playing themselves into the job.
3. Keefe the Mad Scientist
Here are the Leafs' normal forward lines, based on a fully healthy roster.
Michael Bunting-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner
Alex Kerfoot-John Tavares-William Nylander
Ilya Mikheyev-David Kampf-Pierre Engvall
Colin Blackwell-Jason Spezza-Ondrej Kase
Here were the lines from last night.
Michael Bunting-Nick Abruzzese-Mitch Marner
Ilya Mikheyev-John Tavares-Colin Blackwell
William Nylander-Alex Kerfoot-Pierre Engvall
Wayne Simmonds-David Kampf-Jason Spezza
Pretty different, right? Keefe has been playing mad scientist lately and while some of those lineup differences are related to injuries. He seems to be experimenting to see if there can be any chemistry between some random combinations of players. As I mentioned earlier, it arguably worked with the Simmonds-Kampf-Spezza line really excelling.
The Leafs' biggest fear is that they will become a top-heavy, one line team. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see these lines in game 1 of the playoffs.
Michael Bunting-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner
Ilya Mikheyev-John Tavares-Colin Blackwell
William Nylander-Alex Kerfoot-Pierre Engvall
Wayne Simmonds-David Kampf-Jason Spezza
This would spread out the Leafs' star players and it ensures that their opponents will never have a shift off. Thus, I'm not mad that Keefe is messing around with a formula that has worked all season. especially because the Leafs finishing second in the Atlantic Division is seeming more and more like an inevitability.
4. Curveball in the Atlantic Division
Look, I'm terrified of the Tampa Bay Lightning. They have won the Stanley Cup champions in the past two seasons, have an elite goaltender and are stacked in depth all throughout the lineup. However, I feel like hockey fans aren't talking enough about what a disappointing season they've had.
On pure talent alone, the Lightning should be considered at least the second best team in the NHL. But for whatever reason, they haven't been able to put anything together. Obviously, they've still gotten 100 points already this season, so it's not like they've had a bad season, but .658 points percentage is not very special. However, I still thought that this team would easily seal at least third place in the division. But, out of nowhere, they lost to the Detroit Red Wings. Also, the Bruins won against the red-hot St. Louis Blues. This makes the race for third spot in the Atlantic Division up for grabs.
I still think that Tampa Bay will hold on, largely due to an easier schedule, but could you imagine the scenes if the Bruins stole third place on the last day of the season to face off with the Leafs? That would be unreal. I definitely prefer the Bruins as an opponent, but it would still be a huge challenge.
5. Bobby Brink Offers Hope for Flyers' Future
Look, the Flyers are bad. Like really bad. Like terrible. They're hopeless in the present and the future and Flyers fans should be scared that this situation will get even worse, especially if Carter Hart continues to be mediocre. However, there is a shining light.
I've been high on Bobby Brink for a while and he's given me reason to continue to believe in him. The former second-round pick made his name at the World Juniors in 2021, but his stock dramatically increased after he was named a Hobey Baker finalist and he led NCAA Denver to the Men's Frozen Four championship.
I have watched a bit of Brink recently and I'll say right now that he's a good one. He gives me Jake Guentzel vibes and I think he'll be a top-six player for Philadelphia for a very long time.
Let's see if Flyers management can surround Brink with some good young players. A high draft pick should help speed up this rebuild.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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