Matthews celebrates 60 (Mark Blinch, Getty Images)
Auston Matthews became the first player since Steven Stamkos to score 60 goals in a single regular season with a two-goal performance last night.
Here are my 5 takeaways as the Maple Leafs seal home-ice advantage for the playoffs.
1. Awesome Matthews
He did it.
What seemed like an inevitability a few weeks ago was suddenly looking unlikely, as Matthews suffered his longest goal-scoring drought of the season at the wrong time. But, like all elite players, Matthews got it done.
By it, I obviously mean 60 goals in a season. It's a remarkable achievement that hasn't been achieved in a decade. It helps that scoring is way up this season (I mean, Chris Kreider has 52 goals for goodness' sake), but still nobody else had managed it. With 60 goals and 106 points, Matthews has put up the best season by a Leafs player in my lifetime. It's becoming obvious that the American superstar is going to win the Hart Memorial Trophy at the NHL Awards gala this offseason.
Matthews lives in his own world in terms of goal-scoring. But as the Athletic's Jonas Siegel broke down in a recent article, his brilliant defensive impacts separate him from the rest. Data analyst Dom Luszczyszyn has created a formula that measures defensive impacts. It isn't perfect by any means, but it combines statistics including xG against and high-danger opportunities against. Let's look at the top 10 scorers in the league this season and their 82-game pace for defensive rating, per Luszcyszyn.
Auston Matthews 16.3
Johnny Gaudreau 15.8
Matthew Tkachuk 11.6
Mitch Marner 10.5
Connor McDavid 10.5
Kirill Kaprizov 7.5
Steven Stamkos 0.9
JT Miller -3.1
Leon Draisaitl -5.8
Jonathan Huberdeau -13.7
Now that isn't perfect by any means (Connor McDavid is nowhere near as good a defender as Mitch Marner, even if he has taken steps this season). However, what it shows is that not only is Matthews a goal-scoring beast, he's also one of the best defensive players in the NHL. For the skeptics that say "Oh, he doesn't play short-handed," there is only one player on this list that does play on the penalty kill (it's Mitch Marner, by the way; man, I love this duo).
Though I'm the Takeaway King, I may have to cede my title to Matthews. His 92 takeaways are 20 more than the next forward. He's a defensive beast and obviously a generational scorer.
2. Home Sweet Home
The optimist in me says "The Leafs are getting home-ice advantage. They've been great at home and this could push them over the top!" The cynic in me says "Oh, the Leafs get to blow game 7 in front of their own fans this year." Guess who's probably right? Yep, you guessed it, the cynic.
Either way, if I push away my relentless pessimism for one moment, I can admit that this is a big W for Toronto. Their tough trip into Florida left the team in danger of missing out on home-ice advantage to Tampa Bay, but they've sealed it after Game 81.
Toronto's 30-8-2 record at Scotiabank Arena is the third best home record in the league. Their away record (23-13-5) is a much less satisfying tenth place in the NHL.
Crucially, Jack Campbell's splits have been much better at home than they have on the road. At home, "Soupy" is 19-6 with a 2.22 goals against average and a .924 save percentage. On the road, he is 12-9 with a 3.14 GAA and .904 SV%. Pretty big difference and it could be the difference between a series win and a series loss. That extra game could be critical.
3. Campbell Offers a Glimpse
Among all goalies with at least 5 starts in April, Campbell's .915 SV% is top-10 in the league. I've constantly been saying that a healthy Campbell is Toronto's most important asset. That includes Matthews and Marner.
The differential between Campbell at his best and Campbell at his worst is bewildering. It probably isn't a good thing that he drops off so much in his off games, but if Toronto can somehow string together 2 months of good Jack Campbell, they have as good a chance at winning the Cup as anybody. If we get bad Jack Campbell, Tampa could take the series home in 5.
"Soupy" was once again good against Detroit. (admittedly, not much of a test) He looked composed and his puck-tracking ability looked quite good. If he can shake off his midseason slumber, the Leafs have an elite goalie manning the crease.
He made my top 50 NHL players for a reason.
4. Robertson Continues to Underwhelm in NHL
Look, Nick Robertson is good at hockey. In the 2019-20 OHL season, Robertson scored 55 goals in 46 games for the Peterborough Petes. A bad player couldn't do that. Since returning from a major injury, he has 15 goals and 12 assists for 27 points in 26 games against professionals in the AHL. A bad player couldn't do that. But for whatever reason, every time he comes up to the NHL, I just feel disappointed.
He's 20 years old and he's had brutal injury luck. Only managing 2 points in 16 NHL games might be excusable for that reason. But he simply doesn't look polished at all, which is a bad thing considering he is a beacon of hope in Toronto's middling prospect pipeline.
He looks rusty, a step below par. Robertson always seems to bring energy to NHL games, but he is allowed clear looks and is getting an amazing opportunity alongside John Tavares and Ilya Mikheyev, yet he can't take advantage.
Of course I'm not giving up on Nick Robertson. But I wish that he could have a legitimate argument to join Toronto's roster for the postseason. He simply hasn't played well enough in his limited opportunities to do so, which means we're stuck with Kyle Clifford playing multiple games against Tampa's skilled bottom-six.
5. Crucial Offseason for Stevie Y
Similarly to the Ottawa Senators, Detroit seems to have lost the plot when it comes to ending a rebuild. Rebuilds can't go on for a decade or more, and when the Red Wings hired Steve Yzerman, the architect of the 2020 Tampa Bay Lightning team, he was supposed to get the rebuild over with. Yet here we are and Detroit is facing yet another season outside of the playoffs.
Yzerman is facing a job-defining season in the front office this year. He'll have a top-10 pick to add to Detroit's already stacked prospect system. He has an obscene amount of cap space to throw around and make his team more competitive. In Dylan Larkin, Jakub Vrana and Moritz Seider, Stevie Y already has the star power to construct a playoff roster. My biggest question with Detroit is whether they have the right coach.
Jeff Blashill is one of the longest tenured coaches in the NHL, but he simply hasn't done anything of note with this franchise. He could still stay behind the bench, but it seems obvious that Yzerman is at least on the lookout for a new head coach. If he can identify the prime candidate, Detroit can get set to make some noise.
If they stick with Blashill or choose the wrong option, another season of mediocrity awaits.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND THE ATHLETIC
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