Matthews battles debutant Owen Power (Andrew Lahodynskyj, Getty Images)
The Leafs lost the season series against the Buffalo Sabres in a sobering performance at Scotiabank Arena.
Here are my 5 takeaways from Toronto's worst game in weeks.
1. No-Shows
As Leafs beat reporter Kevin Papetti put it, I'm bullish on Toronto's postseason chances because they won't have to play Buffalo. The Sabres have outscored the Leafs 15-5 in each of their last 3 meetings, all Buffalo wins. They seem to have the Leafs' number for whatever reason. Luckily, the Leafs won't have to play Don Granato's team until next year. Either way, it's the continuation of a concerning trend. Toronto continues to play down to lesser opponents.
Unfortunately, I can't find the Sportsnet graphic, but during the broadcast was a very telling chart. Among all of the Atlantic powerhouses (Toronto, Florida, Tampa Bay, Boston), the Leafs have convincingly the best points percentage against playoff-bound teams. That's really good. They are beating the types of squads that they will encounter in May. However, they also have by far the worst points percentage against non-playoff teams. The Leafs have to stop playing down to their opponents, even if it was during a somewhat insignificant mid-April game.
Toronto has been at their best this year when they are on the attack. Think about the 6-2 victory in Tampa Bay. Even when the Leafs were winning handily, they were going for the jugular. No holds barred hockey suits this team very well. However, they are way too prone to taking the foot off the gas. Frankly, that is my biggest concern with this team. It's not goaltending and it's not defense. In a 7-game series, even letting off for one period will come back to bite you.
Let's hope that this is only something that comes up against bad teams.
2. Liljegren is Better than Holl
Once again, young defenseman Timothy Liljegren proved his worth to the Toronto Maple Leafs. After being scratched for a few games, Liljegren responded by being the Leafs' best player on Tuesday. It wasn't just the admittedly fluke goal that impressed me about Liljegren. In the second and third periods, he was very crisp and he was a titan defensively. No player on Toronto's defense corps can combine Liljegren's mix of aggressive offensive positioning with defensive comfort. Morgan Rielly can't block up plays like Liljegren and neither Mark Giordano nor TJ Brodie are able to influence the game in the other direction as effectively as their rookie teammate.
Unfortunately, coach Sheldon Keefe probably won't have Liljegren on his playoff roster. I was admittedly skeptical as well, but now that Toronto's blueline is so deep, Liljegren can play the sheltered minutes and generate high-danger chances for his teammates. In 2022, Liljegren leads all Leafs in xG%. On the whole season, he is in the top 100 with a 58.5 xG%. Notably, that's ahead of players like Charlie McAvoy, Nikita Kucherov and Aaron Ekblad. That's pretty impressive.
However, Keefe continues to run with Justin Holl. After a brief resurgence with TJ Brodie as his partner, Holl reverted back to his old ways tonight. He made some questionable passes due to his lack of decisiveness. Once again, he failed to utilize his big body and got muscled off the puck by players that were much smaller than him.
I know who I would prefer on a playoff lineup. Unfortunately, I'm not the head coach.
3. Kallgren's Role is too Large
Let's not forget that the Leafs signed Erik Kallgren this season. It's not as if the goaltender has been able to adjust to North American ice for a couple of campaigns in the AHL. He truly has been shoehorned into this role and it is showing at times. He's had a few very good games, but for the most part, his NHL career has been simply passable.
His rebound control has been a little sketchy and he simply isn't a commanding force in the crease, like all good goalies.
This is why Toronto needs to be extra careful with Jack Campbell. Kallgren is not ready for playoff hockey against an elite team. If Toronto ever needs to play Kallgren in the postseason, the Leafs are in big trouble. No matter who the Leafs get paired up against, Campbell must be healthy the entire time. I'm glad that Kallgren has been able to get NHL experience and he has done a fine job since Petr Mrazek's injury. However, I'm not sure I trust him in any must-win games.
4. Knies' Big Decision
The Men's Frozen Four has come to an end and unfortunately for Maple Leafs' prospect Matthew Knies, the Minnesota Golden Gophers went home without the big prize. Naturally, this sparked conversation about what was next for Knies, who has been a prime example of Toronto's excellent drafting since the Kyle Dubas hire. Though Knies was rated highly at the 2021 draft, nobody expected the American's stock to shoot up this high.
The question for Knies is simple. Would he like to join the Toronto Maple Leafs for a playoff run or would he like to stay in college and continue to develop his game? Frankly, I think Knies could make a real difference.
I'm seeing major parallels to Chris Kreider's 2012 season. If I remember correctly, Kreider had just finished his season with Boston College when the New York Rangers, who were bracing for the playoffs, signed Kreider to an entry-level contract. Kreider was clutch in the playoffs. His first two NHL goals were playoff game-winners. By the end of the postseason, Kreider's 5 goals were the most by any player before their regular season debut in NHL history.
Though it's probably unwise to expect the same success out of Knies, he could be a difference-maker in the bottom-six. Knies didn't look out of place at the Olympics, so I think he's capable of a step to Toronto's bottom line with some minor PP2 time sprinkled in. It's up to Toronto and Knies to get a decision done.
5. Power Impresses in NHL Debut
It's always a great start to see a youngster make their first NHL appearance in front of a hometown crowd. Preferably, Owen Power wouldn't have been so good and the Leafs could have made this game more exciting. However, from a neutral hockey fan's perspective, there was a lot to like about Power's game. The 2021 first-overall pick played 9 minutes against the league's best scorer, Auston Matthews, and 20 minutes in total.
Power was on the penalty kill. He made some important interventions on Toronto's odd man rushes. He looked like a natural with the puck, bringing a calming presence to the game every time he touched the ice.
As a Canadian, it will be awesome to see Power in best-on-best tournaments for years to come. That's how confident I am in this kid. He's a surefire top-pairing defenseman in the mould of Victor Hedman.
Suddenly, Buffalo have a very exciting D-corps. 2018 first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson (who is SO underrated), Henri Jokiharju and prospect Ryan Johnson was elite already. Add Power to that list and you have a wonderful blueline.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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