Thomas Muller (Alexander Hassenstein, Getty Images)
The round of 16 continues, as UCL football returns after a brief pause. We really only have one tie that is truly out of reach (Manchester City v Sporting). Every other match is tightly contested and we are in for a thrilling sequel to the games in February.
In this article, I'll be reflecting on trends we learned from the first legs and how the squads could adapt to get an advantage. Obviously, I'll also be outlining my score prediction for each match and which players will hold the key to breaking open their impact.
With that being said, let's start off with one of the closest matches of the first group of matches in the round of 16: Bayern Munich v Red Bull Salzburg.
Bayern Munich v Red Bull Salzburg
Quite possibly the best game of the first round of fixtures, a young overachieving Salzburg team challenged Bundesliga leaders Bayern in a fiery match. I expected that the Salzburg team would wilt in the face of legitimate pressure against Germany's finest. How wrong I was.
Despite getting dominated by possession metrics, Salzburg's quick transitions in attack caught Bayern unaware and let Salzburg hold the lead for the majority of the match. They executed Gegenpressing beautifully, making wunderkind manager Matthias Jaissle's gameplan a reality. It was about as perfect as Jaissle could have hoped for. The link-up play of Salzburg's 4-3-1-2 formation allowed their more advanced players to be very aggressive while still having a solid base in midfield. Mohamed Camara was particularly brilliant against Bayern, completing 6 dribbles and making two crucial tackles. Up front, Karim Adeyemi and Chukwubuike Adamu dominated against Bayern's defenders, particularly challenging Niklas Sule and Benjamin Pavard. Salzburg proved that they don't need to dominate play to hold off Munich; all they need is to stick to the plan and not get overawed by their opposition's attack.
Bayern definitely would feel as if they came off worse in the first leg of this tie. It took a 90' minute Kingsley Coman equalizer to even get them a result against the Austrian champions. However, you would expect that they'll come out with a vengeance in the next match. In the first leg, Bayern felt comfortable holding onto the ball. In the second half, they had nearly 80% possession, a whopping stat that shows how Bayern plan to beat Salzburg. However, it didn't work last time, so I'd expect Julain Nagelsmann to adapt his tactics, expecting a vicious counter-pressing effort from Salzburg. In the first match, Nagelsmann employed a strange 3-2-4-1 formation, which was meant to congest the middle of the park as much as possible. Theoretically, this would halt the momentum created by Salzburg's triple pivot, but it didn't work. All it did was weaken Bayern's defensive structure. You can expect a more traditional 4-2-3-1 in the return fixture. Of all the players you can anticipate to have a big impact in this match, I pinpoint Bayern's star striker, Robert Lewandowski. The Pole has now gone consecutive games without scoring for the first time this season. He'll be eager to break that "drought" and he will try to avenge a wholly poor performance in the previous match in Salzburg.
Bayern's defense has been quite poor under Nagelsmann, so Salzburg do have a legitimate chance here. Salzburg's most advanced players are all technically gifted and they are going to try to force mistakes out of the error-prone center-back duo of Dayot Upamecano and Niklas Sule. However, there is no way in my mind that Bayern's attack is held toothless in two successive matches against a club out of Europe's top 5 leagues. This should be an exciting match between two intense sides with very differing expectations.
Prediction: Bayern wins 4-1
Liverpool v Inter Milan
Liverpool are getting legitimate concern as a possible threat for the quadruple this year, which should tell you all you need to know about how I expect this match to play out. The Reds have hit a new gear under Jurgen Klopp, winning 11 of their last 12 matches (the other match was won on penalties). Inter, meanwhile, are stumbling in the Serie A title race. They've won just two of their last 8 games and until a dominant performance against strugglers Salernitana on Friday, had been shut out in 4 consecutive matches. It will take a miracle for Simone Inzaghi's side to pull off the upset at Anfield.
Liverpool are back to their best. They'll be high on confidence after the Carabao Cup victory over Chelsea and they already have a near insurmountable 2-0 aggregate lead after a late flurry at the San Siro in February. In the last match, Liverpool convincingly lost the midfield battle, which I suggested would probably give a good account of the winner of the match. Nevertheless, they still won through a combination of opportunistic forward play and utterly world-class defending. The defending in particular deserves a special shout-out. Dutchman Virgil van Dijk was utterly imperious, executing Liverpool's high line even as the match reached its' most frenetic points. His partner, summer arrival Ibrahima Konate, was equally as impressive. He put in arguably his best performance in a Liverpool shirt protected the space that Inter's active midfield provided in a dominant way. His understanding of how to intercept passes into the box is very impressive. Up front, Liverpool also got some solid contributions. The injection of Luis Diaz now gives the Reds four of the best attackers on the planet. Each player that Klopp could pick is rapid, smart and capable with the ball at their feet. Heck, Roberto Firmino is now barely Klopp's first option off the bench and he's one of the most capable center forwards of the last half-decade. I feel confident that Liverpool will walk away from this match comfortably, as they proved that they can win, despite having less possession in midfield.
Inter's attack let them down in the reverse fixture. Edin Dzeko and Lautauro Martinez were both toothless, rarely getting involved in the play, aside from a few link-up opportunities for Dzeko. Their three-man defense was quite good, as not only were they rarely daunted by Liverpool, but they pushed the ball forward with their ball retention abilities. However, in midfield, was where Inter really excelled. Arturo Vidal and Hakan Calhanoglu were especially daring with and without the ball. They were both lively and warrior-like, never affording the Reds' midfield trio an inch of space. If Inter are to not flinch away from the challenge, they are going to have to out-possess Liverpool and await their opportunities. Who could create those opportunities, you may ask? Without Nicolo Barella in the side, Simone Inzaghi's side is often stale in the final third. Their wing-backs could offer a solution. Euro 2020 star Denzel Dumfries has settled well in Milan and his overlapping runs could cause Andy Robertson some problems. However, in the reverse fixture, the left flank was where Inter managed most of their opportunities. Ivan Perisic was Inter's best player in that match, putting in some dangerous crosses and keeping Trent Alexander-Arnold on his toes. He could start, or January addition Robin Gosens could make his first start in a Milan jersey. Either way, if Inter are to get on the board, their wingers will have to be excellent.
Anfield has developed a reputation as a fortress in European competition and I expect this trend to remain the same. Inter are going to need to outscore this red-hot Liverpool team by at least two goals to advance, which seems unlikely. I have a feeling this could be a boring match, as both clubs could settle down quickly.
Prediction: Liverpool wins 1-0
Manchester City v Sporting CP
After a commanding 5-0 victory in the first leg, this tie is already settled and fans will be much better off tuning into the much more intense game between PSG and Real Madrid. Nevertheless, City-Sporting is a match that could be highly entertaining, simply due to the sheer amount of goals we could see.
City showed absolutely no mercy to the reigning Portuguese champions in the reverse fixture. Led by the absolute class shown by Bernardo Silva in midfield as well as Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez on the wings, the Cityzens put 5 past past a poor Sporting Lisbon side. It's unlikely that Pep Guardiola' side will be so willingly aggressive from the kick-off, but I'm still expecting a strong lineup to be fielded and torment Sporting's backline. City don't have to do much to advance after they did all the work in the first leg, but they may be willing to show off their offensive prowess on the global stage once more. Their keys to the game will be similar to how they played in the reverse fixture. They played on the front foot, holding nearly 65% of possession. Their midfield was utterly crucial, not only making brilliant through balls and dropping into empty spaces to execute offensive moves, but also performing brilliantly off the ball. Bernardo was particularly good defensively, blocking off any lanes that Sporting's star man Pedro Goncalves tried to exploit. The only concern that Pep Guardiola could have in this match is his lack of available first-team defenders. Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake and Kyle Walker are all out of this match, whether it be through injury, illness or suspension. This means that Pep will have to find a creative solution to fill in his lineup. John Stones will likely start at right-back, leaving an empty slot at center-back beside Aymeric Laporte. Defensive midfielder Fernandinho could drop into defense or academy graduate Luke Mbete-Tutu could make his second start for the senior team, but that seems like a lot of pressure. Either way, City's defense will have to be vigilant, but Sporting scoring 5 goals would take a historic meltdown.
Part of the reason why I'm so skeptical that Sporting will even be able to manage one goal in this match is that they are also experiencing a minor injury crisis. Pedro Goncalves, Sporting's best player, is out with a muscle injury and Sporting will struggle to create without the Portugal international's influence. Another tough loss is that of the underrated Joao Palhinha, an excellent deep-lying midfielder, who was one of Sporting's few players that weren't an absolute liability in the 5-0 drubbing. FotMob projects that his place will be filled by Dario Essugo, a 16-year old kid who has just one senior appearance with the team to his name. That seems like a recipe for disaster. It's going to take a superhuman effort from players like winger Nuno Santos, Spanish international Pablo Sarabia and Man City loanee Pedro Porro. Manager Ruben Amorim is likely to revert to his 5-3-2 formation to try to play on the counter. However, Sporting would need a monumental collapse from their opponents to stand any chance.
This seems like a game that could get ugly quickly. I feel that Manchester City may take it a bit easy on their opponents, but they will still be creative and opportunistic with their chances. Sporting's midfield is usually their strong point, but without players like Joao Palhinha and Matheus Luiz, it will be an inexperienced group. This will be a comfortable City victory.
Prediction: Manchester City wins 4-0
Real Madrid v PSG
The highlight of this round of fixtures, these two teams are both running away with their respective domestic leagues and have a legitimate argument that they deserve to take home the UCL honours this season.
Real were awful in the first leg, mustering just three shots and 0.14 xG to PSG's 21 shots and 1.88 xG. Critics went at manager Carlo Ancelotti for so blatantly looking for a 0-0 result. Though they stood firm defensively for the most part, they let Kylian Mbappe run the show for 95 minutes. This game, they will have to alter their gameplan, likely needing to put more pressure higher up the pitch. Vinicius Junior has slowed down slightly after an explosive start to the campaign, starting to show some of the more frustrating aspects of his game, like over-dribbling and hesitation in the final third. If Real are to pull off the comeback, they will need their star Brazilian to utterly dominate the flank. Achraf Hakimi is a very good player, but he is more of a wing-back, so his defensive game isn't exactly resolute. Vini will have every chance to torment the Morrocan and have an impact in the match. Another tactical shift that Real will have to employ will be in midfield. In the reverse fixture, Real's revered trio of Modric-Casemiro-Kroos was bossed around by Marco Verratti. They were liabilities in possession and Kroos in particular really struggled to make passes into the attacking third. The issue with this is that Ancelotti will have to adjust his midfield. Toni Kroos is expected to miss the match and Casemiro is suspended due to a yellow card in the previous match. This means that Real will have to put Eduardo Camavinga at DM, a major downgrade and Federico Valverde beside Luka Modric. It's fair to expect that Real can ride the atmosphere at the Santiago Bernabeu to victory, but with a rotated midfield and a drastic tactical shift needed, they are the underdogs.
As I predicted, Marco Verratti single-handedly won the midfield battle for PSG in the reverse fixture. If les Parisiens are to advance, they need the Italian to be excellent again. His job should be easier now that he doesn't have to deal with Casemiro and Kroos. Expect him to wreak havoc once more. However, it will be up to PSG's forwards whether they seal this match or whether this becomes a nerve-wracking test on Madrid's home soil. At their best, a front three of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi is the best in world football. The speed and skill that all three possess is stunning and they are each perfectly capable of pulling off a moment of individual brilliance to put this match out of reach. However, we frankly haven't seen the best out of either Neymar or Messi this campaign, putting a lot of the attacking burden on Mbappe, who will be eager to prove himself against the squad that he is widely expected to be a part of next season. Keep an eye on how they perform in this match. Finally, PSG's defense will be key to this match. If Real can't field a fully healthy midfield, their attack is their next best asset. Karim Benzema and Vinicius Junior is a deadly combo that was limited in the reverse fixture. Achraf Hakimi and Marquinhos were both excellent defensively, but they need to be challenged in order to make mistakes. If neither Benzema or Vini are willing to be courageous in attack, PSG are going to take this home.
This will be a frantic affair, with both teams eager to advance. PSG are going to pursue an insurance marker and they'll be at their most open in the first 25 minutes. If Real can score in that timeframe, I predict they'll be able to at least bring it to extra time. However, I'm picking a draw here. Without Casemiro and Kroos in midfield, Real are going to get dominated by Verratti and he'll open up space for PSG's forwards. This is going to be an excellent match worthy of your attention.
Prediction: PSG and Real Madrid draw 1-1
Ajax v Benfica
Yet another tie with a lot on the line heading into the second leg, Ajax and Benfica each played an exciting match of football in the reverse fixture. A flurry of early goals set the stage for a late push, and I wouldn't be surprised if this game took that path as well.
I suggested in my first leg predictions that Ajax would be more direct on the counter-attack, but this wasn't the case, as the Amsterdam side controlled 60% of possession and had more shots on target. Like with Benfica, the danger with Ajax comes from the fact that they are capable of creating chances whether in or out of possession. The creativity of Dusan Tadic, Steven Berghuis and Antony is nearly impossible to defend, as all three are good on the ball, but can just as easily put in a through ball for striker Sebastian Haller. A three-pronged attack as deadly as Ajax's will salivate when up against Benfica's slow center-back pairing. If they can keep up the pressure, you'd expect the naturally gifted Haller to be able to put away some chances (preferably not in his own goal). In my opinion, right-back Noussair Mazraoui was Ajax's best player in the previous match, with his crossing ability and pace down the flank offering another weapon to the already dangerous attack. Mazraoui is coming off an injury, so if he doesn't get the start in this match, it would be very detrimental to Ajax's hopes. Either way, Erik ten Hag's side should once again be buzzing around the goal and you can anticipate another high-scoring match from them.
Benfica did well to limit the damage of Ajax's performance in the first leg. By controlling play in midfield and positioning their defenders in the perfect positions, they kept Ajax from getting too many open chances. Benfica's 4-4-2 clearly caused a bit more trouble than Ajax were expecting, as ten Hag's team couldn't assure dominance on the wings. Benfica's tactics in general are fairly tough for Ajax to match up with, as all their players are very good with their movement off the ball, which creates difficulties in Ajax's man-marking system. If Benfica are to pull off the upset, they'll need players like Rafa Silva and Everton to be disciplined defensively, but also free to roam forward. They'll also need star striker Darwin Nunez to wreak havoc in and out of the box, with both his finishing and his link-up play. Benfica don't have history on their side, having last advanced past the round of 16 in 2016. I still think that Ajax' multiple prongs in attack can pierce through Benfica's sometimes shaky defense.
Don't be surprised if we see another high-scoring game. I expect that the first half will be a bit more tentative, but we'll see tons of chances over the duration of this match. Benfica are a progressive side that can match Ajax's creativity and finishing ability. However, I can't see the Portuguese side holding Ajax's front three and I think that the Eredivisie leaders will advance.
I suggested in my first leg predictions that Ajax would be more direct on the counter-attack, but this wasn't the case, as the Amsterdam side controlled 60% of possession and had more shots on target. Like with Benfica, the danger with Ajax comes from the fact that they are capable of creating chances whether in or out of possession. The creativity of Dusan Tadic, Steven Berghuis and Antony is nearly impossible to defend, as all three are good on the ball, but can just as easily put in a through ball for striker Sebastian Haller. A three-pronged attack as deadly as Ajax's will salivate when up against Benfica's slow center-back pairing. If they can keep up the pressure, you'd expect the naturally gifted Haller to be able to put away some chances (preferably not in his own goal). In my opinion, right-back Noussair Mazraoui was Ajax's best player in the previous match, with his crossing ability and pace down the flank offering another weapon to the already dangerous attack. Mazraoui is coming off an injury, so if he doesn't get the start in this match, it would be very detrimental to Ajax's hopes. Either way, Erik ten Hag's side should once again be buzzing around the goal and you can anticipate another high-scoring match from them.
Benfica did well to limit the damage of Ajax's performance in the first leg. By controlling play in midfield and positioning their defenders in the perfect positions, they kept Ajax from getting too many open chances. Benfica's 4-4-2 clearly caused a bit more trouble than Ajax were expecting, as ten Hag's team couldn't assure dominance on the wings. Benfica's tactics in general are fairly tough for Ajax to match up with, as all their players are very good with their movement off the ball, which creates difficulties in Ajax's man-marking system. If Benfica are to pull off the upset, they'll need players like Rafa Silva and Everton to be disciplined defensively, but also free to roam forward. They'll also need star striker Darwin Nunez to wreak havoc in and out of the box, with both his finishing and his link-up play. Benfica don't have history on their side, having last advanced past the round of 16 in 2016. I still think that Ajax' multiple prongs in attack can pierce through Benfica's sometimes shaky defense.
Don't be surprised if we see another high-scoring game. I expect that the first half will be a bit more tentative, but we'll see tons of chances over the duration of this match. Benfica are a progressive side that can match Ajax's creativity and finishing ability. However, I can't see the Portuguese side holding Ajax's front three and I think that the Eredivisie leaders will advance.
Prediction: Ajax wins 2-1
Manchester United v Atletico Madrid
The most delicately placed tie in the entire round, United v Atletico could be a chaotic affair. The two played out a dramatic game in the reverse fixture, with Atletico sitting further back after an early Joao Felix opener, but they were stung by a heroic effort by Swedish youngster Anthony Elanga. With this tie currently equal at 1-1, this will be a close one.United were quite poor in the reverse fixture with just two shots on target. They rarely troubled Jan Oblak until substitute Elanga equalized on a rapid counter-attack. Since then, we've seen the worst and the best from Ralf Rangnick's side. They put in a very poor effort against Manchester City, defending with no intensity whatsoever. However, they beat Tottenham Hotspur with a much more stable effort after an infamous Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick. If United are to advance, they'll need CR7 to be at his world-beating best. It'll be interesting to see who Rangnick picks to play on Ronaldo's wing. Elanga was great in his limited appearance in the last UCL match, but the German boss may favour somebody like Marcus Rashford. Either way, the player on Ronaldo's left will almost certainly be Jadon Sancho, who has finally settled down with United and is now producing in Rangnick's run-and-gun offense. The Red Devils' defense has been atrocious for most of this campaign, so in order to secure a result, Ronaldo, Sancho and attacking midfielder Bruno Fernandes will all have to be excellent. In the first leg, they were all fairly disappointing, so a turnaround in their form could turn this tie on its' head.
Juventus v Villarreal
Lille v Chelsea
Finally, a tie that is more than likely out of reach. Lille have been shockingly poor after an incredible Ligue 1 championship last season. Chelsea are also undergoing a major crisis, with EU sanctions threatening to bankrupt the club. However, the gap in quality between these two sides is too large to ignore.
Lille put in a respectable effort last time out, limiting Chelsea's possession better than any other team in UCL action this season. They peppered the Blues with shots, but good defending from Chelsea and poor finishing from Lille led to only 2 shots on target. Renato Sanches, who was useful in the first leg is out with a thigh injury, a massive blow to Lille's chances. Without the Portuguese midfielder, Lille will need to cede possession to their opponents and try to swarm Chelsea' forwards any time they make a foray forward. It doesn't seem like a recipe for success, particularly with Jocelyn Gourvennec still struggling to get on the same page as his predecessor, Christophe Galtier. Though Chelsea may simply hope to advance with a 0-0 draw, if Thomas Tuchel decides to take an aggressive approach, this could get ugly for Lille.
Though the sanctions on club owner Roman Abramovich are worrying for Chelsea fans, they should not be nervous about picking up the three points here. Chelsea have identified their future striker in Kai Havertz, who is playing like Chelsea' best center forward since Didier Drogba. His intelligence and athleticism in the box allows him to score from all areas of the pitch, while also being creative with the ball at his feet. Lille will be missing Sanches and I expect Chelsea to take advantage. They will overload their midfield, possibly in a 3-5-2 formation and hold possession much more effectively than they did in the first leg. Though Sven Botman and Jose Fonte of Lille are both capable center-backs, I'm expecting a barrage of through balls for Havertz. The German could be in for a huge game. Lille will be on their toes and shouldn't challenge Chelsea's defense with much gusto. This will allow players like Antonio Rudiger to step into midfield and contribute offensively.
As you can probably tell, I'm very pessimistic about Lille's hopes in this game. It seems like it'll be a huge challenge. Despite the turmoil, Chelsea are unbeaten in March. They've have only lost to Manchester City and Liverpool since the calendar shifted to 2022. This will be a comfortable victory for the English club.
Prediction: Chelsea wins 3-0
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