Joe Pavelski (Glenn James, Getty Images)
Hockey fans, rejoice. The trade deadline is almost here. We're about to see a lot of news soon (or none, if you believe the rumours...) and this should energize what has been a slow March. However, if you peek below the surface, you'll be able to see that the fabric of the NHL is changing. Top-tier contenders like the Colorado Avalanche, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs are struggling. Meanwhile, some sleeper teams like the Calgary Flames and the Pittsburgh Penguins are threatening the best squads in the NHL.
Thus, it's the perfect time for another edition of the acclaimed NHL Power Rankings from Sincere Sports. This week is pretty wild. We have a new first place-team, a new last-place team and a major shake-up in the 10-20 range.
Now that the intro is out of the way, let's dive into the top team in the league.
1. Carolina Hurricanes
Previous Ranking: 3
Points Percentage: .737
The Canes have been one of the most resilient teams of the season, rarely exiting the top-tier of my NHL power rankings. They remain an elite team with elite goaltending and the best group of defensemen in the league. I still do think they need a bit more "oomph" factor, but they don't have the cap space to pursue a solution at the trade deadline.
They recently signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to a long-term deal that will kick in this offseason. I really like the deal, as it could be a bargain if all goes right. I've never been overly impressed with the Finn's game, but he does have some real potential. If the Canes are to acquire that "oomph" that I suggest they need, Kotkaniemi could be a source of it.
2. Florida Panthers
Previous Ranking: 4
Points Percentage: .729
After a slight stumble towards the end of February, the Panthers have gotten right back to their best, winning 5 straight games, outscoring their opponents 25-9. The Panthers' offense has been impressive all season, with Jonathan Huberdeau shining. His passing ability is utterly brilliant and due to the strength of his 64 assist, he is firmly in the mix for the Art Ross trophy.
The goaltending has also been improved, with Sergei Bobrovsky putting in his best season as a member of the Panthers. Backup goalie Spencer Knight has had a somewhat tougher season, but if Bobrovsky can continue to hold down the crease, the Panthers are in a position to go far. They also have some assets to trade for an upgrade on their blueline.
3. Colorado Avalanche
Previous Ranking: 1
Points Percentage: .742
When you're at the top, there's nowhere to go but down. The Avs have been at the top of my power rankings since the founding of the Sincere Sports blog. However, they've now lost 4 of their last 6. I was admittedly impressed with their victory over the Calgary Flames on Sunday night, but we can't forget how tired the Flames must have been after a brutal week.
The concerning part about the Avs' recent struggles is that they've been due to the absence of two key figures on the team. Gabriel Landeskog and Samuel Girard are both out. The Landeskog loss in particular is particularly tough. However, he could be placed on LTIR after undergoing surgery, which would open up enough cap space for a Claude Giroux trade. With the Wild and the Blues both stumbling, the Avs look like by far the likeliest destination for the Flyers star.
4. Calgary Flames
Previous Ranking: 5
Points Percentage: .669
The Calgary Flames have been a different beast in 2022. They've gone 16-3-1 in their last 20 games. They are a team that is particularly built for postseason hockey and yet they are flourishing in the regular season. They have the best shot differential in the NHL by some distance. In fact, I don't think I've watched a Flames game in 2022 where they were outchanced.
The first line is utterly dominant whenever they are on the ice. The Tkachuk-Lindholm-Gaudreau line easily leads the league in expected goals for with a whopping 39.4. The second best is Robertson-Pavelski-Hintz with 26.5 xGF. They are rarely hemmed in their own zone and they cycle the puck like no trio I've seen for a very long time. That line can singlehandedly bring the Flames to the Western Conference Finals.
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
Previous Ranking: 2
Points Percentage: .695
It was a fairly tumultuous week for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, as they lost three of 4 during their swing through Western Canada. A 5-1 loss to Pittsburgh in which the Lightning looked as if they simply lacked composure also threw a wrench into their rating. Either way, they still have one of the most complete rosters in the NHL paired with arguably the best coach, so they will be right in the mix come playoff time.
There is no point in hitting the panic button, particularly as we know that this Lightning team can duke it out with anybody. I've been seeing some minor struggles with breaking down opponents' penalty kills lately, but you know that when Nikita Kucherov turns it on, the Lightning power play becomes unstoppable.
6. Pittsburgh Penguins
Previous Ranking: 8
Points Percentage: .675
One of the hardest teams to get a grasp of this year, the Pens' inconsistency has made it tough to really understand what they can do in the postseason. However, as somebody who has seen this team at their very best in a 5-1 win over the Lightning, I think that the Penguins can legitimately win a Cup this year. The Penguins' center depth is worrying as an opposing fan.
Sidney Crosby is on a 9-game point streak, with 12 points in that streak. Tristan Jarry would be a prime Vezina candidate in any year where Igor Shesterkin wasn't having a historic campaign. Kris Letang has stayed healthy and he is probably in the Norris conversation. My only worry with Pittsburgh is that they still need some winger depth. Kasperi Kapanen has had an awful year, getting scratched recently. If GM Ron Hextall can find a top-6 player who can play beside Crosby or Evgeni Malkin. To me, Brock Boeser is the perfect player.
7. New York Rangers
Previous Ranking: 7
Points Percentage: .669
Igor Shesterkin is admittedly having a bad stretch, but his numbers on the season are still absolutely disgusting. With 30.7 goals saved above expected, a 2.07 GAA and a .938 SV%, Shesterkin is miles ahead of any other netminder. I recently heard a point on a Rangers broadcast where a commentator mentioned that the gap between Shesterkin and the next best goalie on the season is the largest gap in a very long time. He's not wrong. Shesterkin could win the Vezina Trophy unanimously this year and he is carrying a largely mediocre Rangers team.
I'm still a bit worried about what the advanced analytics are saying about the Rangers. It hasn't hurt them yet, but I've never seen a contender with a worse xGF%. The Rangers are 27th in the league in terms of how they drive play, which doesn't seem like a sustainable method of success. Either way, they have a brilliant goalie and a very good power play.
8. Toronto Maple Leafs
Previous Ranking: 6
Points Percentage: .669
The Leafs have had a largely non-controversial season up to this point, so of course an issue would need to emerge in this car crash of a franchise. Currently, the goaltending is absolutely awful with both of the Leafs' goalies amid the bottom 5 in SV% since January 1. If the Leafs' management can't fix this, whether it be through a trade or maybe simply playing a different goalie (Erik Kallgren worked fairly well), this team is going out in round 1 again.
The bright spot is obviously the first line. Since January 1, the trio of Bunting-Matthews-Marner has 42 goals. In that same span, everybody else on the squad has 42 goals combined. The first line is capable of taking over a game and they'll need to do even more to cover up this awful crease play.
9. Boston Bruins
Previous Ranking: 11
Points Percentage: .653
The Bruins are back. Boston was stuttering a little bit in the early part of the season, but they are right back in the mix and if they keep picking up results, they could possibly surpass the Leafs in the standings and in my power rankings.
The guy that I want to point out is Patrice Bergeron. He is having possibly his best defensive NHL season yet, despite being one of the greatest defensive forwards of all-time. His xGF% is a stunning 66.7% with an elite relative xGF% of 17.6%. He is driving play like nobody ever has in this decade. Bergeron is an underrated Hart Trophy candidate in my opinion.
10. St. Louis Blues
Previous Ranking: 9
Points Percentage: .644
The Blues are also a tough team to understand. They are capable of outscoring just about every team in the NHL and in Ville Husso, they have one of the league's hottest goalies. However, the team lacks a bit of cohesion and they make too many mistakes in their own zone that lead to goals. They play similarly to the Leafs: quick, skilled, but sloppy. I don't know if that will work in the playoffs, but in a very weak Western Conference, I could see them winning a round.
11. Los Angeles Kings
Previous Ranking: 12
Points Percentage: .607
The Kings' game over the Florida Panthers last night really showed what makes them so special. Despite a slight injury crisis, they held on and beat the Panthers in a shootout. It was an impressive game by them and we really need to start taking the Kings seriously.
Their possession analytics are elite as well, so this probably isn't a fluke. There's one guy that I really want to focus on here: Trevor Moore, the former Leaf. He is second on the team in xG and he has a career-high 36 points this season. He's been a key part of the second line and is making the team a deeper group of players. I'm glad to see a former Leaf flourishing.
12. Nashville Predators
Previous Ranking: 15
Points Percentage: .610
The Preds have been a consistent team for two decades now, but this particular version is so streaky. They are capable of utterly dominating against an elite team, but they can equally throw in a dud of a performance and lose to a team that they should be beating.
They have a great goalie in Juuse Saros, a legitimate superstar in Filip Forsberg and a top-tier defenseman in Roman Josi, but they player that's had my eye, especially recently, is Matt Duchene. In his last 5 games, Duchene has 6 goals and 5 assists for 11 points. He has been making fun dangles and his vision is very good. Keep an eye on Duchene if you're ever watching a Predators game, as this is the best season of his career.
13. Edmonton Oilers
Previous Ranking: 14
Points Percentage: .576
I'm still very unsure about what the Oilers are, considering Canadian media acts like the sky is falling after a slight losing streak and that they are future Cup Champs after a minor winning streak. They do seem to have more team spirit after Dave Tippett was canned, but the power play is still woefully inconsistent and the goaltending situation is awful.
Mike Smith is not an NHL-calibre goalie anymore, and he needs to stop getting starts for the Oilers. Maybe they can pawn him off to the Coyotes at the deadline. That would be a funny return to Arizona for the tendie.
14. Minnesota Wild
Previous Ranking: 10
Points Percentage: .621
The Wild have experienced one of the most dramatic falls of any team in these power rankings. Just one month ago, the Wild were fifth in the league. I attributed their success to good goaltending (yikes), a smart coaching staff (still holds true, I would argue) and a dynamic second line (which has fallen off as well). They are simply lacking grit and the toughness that the entire team possessed in spades not long ago. However, the biggest issue is that their starting goaltender, Cam Talbot, has been in shambles all season. I'm not even sure they'll be buyers at the deadline anymore.
15. Dallas Stars
Previous Ranking: 17
Points Percentage: .588
Unlike some other teams on this list, the Stars' goaltending situation has been a major strength of theirs this season. Jake Oettinger has given them a goalie who can preserve leads and allow Dallas to play their hard-nosed, defensive style. However, the Stars of the past have always struggled with outscoring their foes. This is no longer an issue thanks to Jason Robertson-Joe Pavelski-Roope Hintz. Robertson recently scored two consecutive hat-tricks to be awarded the First Star of the Week. Pavelski was recently inked to a well-deserved contract extension. Hintz is having his best season yet. This is a good team, if a little top-heavy.
16. Washington Capitals
Previous Ranking: 16
Points Percentage: .617
We are witnessing the fall of the Capitals. They've been one of the most consistent teams of the last few years, but an aging roster and an uncertain goaltending situation means that they are finished at the top. If three straight first round exits didn't demonstrate that, the Caps' struggles in 2022 definitely should. Alex Ovechkin is still a star and the blueline is one of the better in the league, but they are lacking in forward depth and goaltending.
17. Vegas Golden Knights
Previous Ranking: 13
Points Percentage: .557
By points percentage, this star-studded Knights team is not even in the playoffs currently. Jack Eichel has not been able to mask the loss of Mark Stone, who is clearly a better player than Eichel, and Vegas aren't getting good goaltending. They have now lost four straight, with losses to Philadelphia, Ottawa and Buffalo all occurring during that stretch. They can't add at the deadline due to their tight cap situation. In fact, they may have to sell to make room on the salary bill for a Mark Stone return. All is not well in Vegas.
18. Vancouver Canucks
Previous Ranking: 18
Points Percentage: .542
Since Bruce Boudreau took over, the Canucks have the second best points percentage in the Western Conference. Even I should probably be showing them some more respect.
The team is still lacking a bit in depth, per my estimation, but they have one of the league's best goalies in Thatcher Demko and one of the league's best forwards in JT Miller. I would like to see this prolonged brilliance over a longer span of play before I move them up too drastically, but don't be surprised if you see the Canucks in the top 15 in the next edition.
19. Winnipeg Jets
Previous Ranking: 19
Points Percentage: .533
Quite possibly the most mediocre team in the entire NHL, the Jets haven't had a truly good or bad stretch all season. They've just been floating slightly above .500, thanks in large part to Kyle Connor's excellent offensive season. He has 37 goals and 32 assists for 69 points. Unfortunately, the Jets' poor defense and a disappointing campaign by star goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has doomed the Jets to a spot outside of the playoffs. They have the talent to make a run, but it seems increasingly unlikely with each passing day.
20. New York Islanders
Previous Ranking: 23
Points Percentage: .500
The Isles may be the best "spoiler" team this season. Every year, there is a squad that finds themselves outside of the postseason picture, but clearly have enough talent to pick up wins against some of the league's better teams. These teams often find themselves capable of breaking up the playoff race by playing pragmatic hockey. This is what the Islanders will find themselves doing soon.
They are too inconsistent to actually make a run themselves, but Barry Trotz (who recently celebrated 900 wins in the NHL, becoming just the third coach to ever reach that mark) is capable of beating any team on his day.
21. Anaheim Ducks
Previous Ranking: 20
Points Percentage: .516
The Ducks are the team to watch at the deadline. They have so many assets in Josh Manson, Hampus Lindholm and Rickard Rakell that will be heavily pursued by contenders. Pat Verbeek has a huge chance to retool his franchise and secure enough picks and prospects for a future dynasty. With players like Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale and Mason MacTavish all playing at some point this season, the Ducks already have a great young corps. However, if Verbeek plays this well, he could turn Anaheim into one of the league's best in the next few years.
22. Columbus Blue Jackets
Previous Ranking: 21
Points Percentage: .525
The Jackets continue to win games, but they recently had two big losses in Patrik Laine and Jakub Voracek. Those two have been two of Columbus' best forwards all season, with their shooting and vision respectively, catching the eyes of neutral fans all around. However, with them being injured for now, the Jackets need somebody to step up.
We saw a prime candidate last night in rookie Cole Sillinger. The youngest player in the league had an impressive hat trick against the Vegas Golden Knights. He's been really good this year for a player of his limited experience.
23. San Jose Sharks
Previous Ranking: 24
Points Percentage: .509
Yet another team that have a good claim to be the most mediocre team in the NHL, the Sharks are hovering barely above .500, despite the presence of two very good fowards in Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl. It may be time to embrace the rebuild and deal with Hertl to a contender, but that is looking less likely.
In other news, their goaltending situation is quite concerning as they are currently running with a tandem of Alex Stalock and Zach Sawchenko. This was emphasized in an embarrassing 8-0 loss against Nashville recently.
24. New Jersey Devils
Previous Ranking: 27
Points Percentage: .415
Nico Daws has been a hero for this Devils team. In his first NHL season, the German-born rookie goaltender has easily been New Jersey’s netminder. He has a respectable 6-4-0 record with a 2.50 GAA and a .916 SV%. He recently had a brilliant performance, beating the Ducks in a shootout win. With Jon Gillies, Akira Schmid, MacKenzie Blackwood, and Jonathan Bernier all proving incapable of seizing the crease, Daws’ play has been a welcome surprise during a year dictated by bad goaltending play for New Jersey.
25. Detroit Red Wings
Previous Ranking: 22
Points Percentage: .466
Another team who have been anchored down by poor goaltending, Detroit must have expected more out of Alex Nedeljkovic after acquiring him in the offseason. He had a .932 SV% last season with Carolina. This season, it’s down to a dastardly .901. That simply isn’t good enough.
As usual with Detroit teams of the last 5 years, the youngsters are the only bright spot. I still think that Moritz Seider deserves to take home the award and he is looking like a lynchpin of Detroit’s defense for years to come.
26. Chicago Blackhawks
Previous Ranking: 26
Points Percentage: .433
The Blackhawks haven’t won successive games at any point in 2022. Every time they put in an impressive performance, they snuff out all their own momentum with a poor performance the next game. On the bright spot, former third overall pick Dylan Strome is really finding his NHL groove. He has 7 goals and 4 assists for 11 points in his past 6 games since being placed on the top line. Along with his former Erie Otter teammate Alex DeBrincat and superstar Patrick Kane, Strome looks like a key part of this Blackhawks team. I speculated whether he could be a trade option for a contender, but he looks untouchable now.
27. Arizona Coyotes
Previous Ranking: 32
Points Percentage: .345
Arizona have now joined an exclusive group of teams who have beat the Colorado Avalanche multiple teams. Through Nick Schmaltz’s explosion, Jakob Chychrun’s improved play and Clayton Keller, one of the league’s most underrated players, having a brilliant season, the Coyotes have pulled themselves out of the basement. They have been one of the most exciting teams to watch lately. For a team as hopeless as Arizona, it’s the little wins that count,
28. Ottawa Senators
Previous Ranking: 25
Points Percentage: .405
I’ve been saying this for weeks: Anton Forsberg is one of the most underrated goalies in the league. On a leaky Ottawa team, Forsberg’s capacity to control the damage and give the Sens a chance to win games is incredible. His .916 SV% is a career-high and his 2.83 GAA is also his best ever mark. I’ve been saying that the Leafs should go get him, but the way he’s playing, Ottawa may be hesitant to part ways with him.
29. Montreal Canadiens
Previous Ranking: 28
Points Percentage: .339
Though the magic of Martin St. Louis’ appointment has faded slightly, this version of the Habs is still unrecognizable from the team under Dominique Ducharme. The new revelation of the past fortnight has been the play of Andrew Hammond.
One of the league’s most beloved players for his outstanding stretch with the Ottawa Senators in 2014, the “Hamburglar” has continued to steal games for his new team. He is 3-0-0 since signing with the Habs with an impressive .920 SV%. I love seeing Hammond do well, so this is heart-warming,
30. Buffalo Sabres
Previous Ranking: 31
Points Percentage: .400
The Sabres have now beat the Toronto Maple Leafs twice in two weeks. I don’t know if that’s a testament to how bad the Leafs have been or how good the Sabres have been. I’ll go with the former, but the Sabres have still been good.
Apparently they could be buyers at the deadline, which is weird, but I like it. They need a partner for Owen Power, who should be making his NHL debut in the next month or so. It’s encouraging to see the Sabres actively trying to get better.
31. Philadelphia Flyers
Previous Ranking: 29
Points Percentage: .398
The Flyers have managed to decrease the deficit of their losses lately, but they are still losing way too often. The Flyers have had a weird phenomenon in which they can never get both good goaltending and a high-powered offense. I’ve watched Flyers games this year where Carter Hart steals the show, but the offense can’t buy a goal. I’ve also watched games where the forwards are firing on all cylinders, but Hart/Martin Jones can’t stop a puck.
They also have one of the most incompetent GMs in the league in Chuck Fletcher. Seriously, $5 million for Rasmus Ristolainen? C’mon Chuck.
32. Seattle Kraken
Previous Ranking: 30
Points Percentage: .344
I did my best to keep the Kraken out of last place, but I simply couldn’t place them anywhere else. They are utterly hopeless at their worst and barely competent at their best. This is what an expansion team should look like, but it’s still shocking to see the Kraken doomed to this fate.
Maybe they’ll win the draft lottery and get a chance to pick up Shane Wright. For a fanbase wit very little hope, a future center depth chart of Wright and Matty Beniers is a good cure. The Kraken have entered tank mode.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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