Mitch Marner battles in the crease (Mark Blinch, Getty Images)
Yet again, the Leafs possessed the second best goaltender and it cost them. A dispiriting loss to the Vancouver Canucks was the result of poor crease play.
Here are my 5 takeaways as the Leafs' goaltending situation hits DEFCON 10.
1. Time to Panic
Recently, GM Kyle Dubas insisted that he wouldn't panic buy for a goaltender at the deadline. This game proved that it would not be a panic buy.
Jack Campbell was objectively the second-best goalie in the league from September 25 to January 2. All the stats and the eye-test back up my claim. From January 2 to today (March 6), he has been objectively the worst starting goalie in the entire NHL.
In his last 14 starts, Campbell has conceded 5 (!) goals in 7 of them. It is downright impossible to win if your offense has to score at least 5 goals in half of your games. Let's not mess around: Jack Campbell has been an utter mess.
Ask any Stanley Cup champion of the past and they will tell you that you need a great goalie. In 2021 and 2020, Andrei Vasilevskiy's consistence was legendary. In 2019, the red-hot Jordan Binnington had a .927 SV% in the regular season. In 2018, Braden Holtby caught fire with one of the best runs by a playoff goalie in recent memory, finishing third in Conn Smythe Trophy. I think you get the point now. To win the Stanley Cup, you need the best goalie. Campbell is currently the worst among all playoff teams.
If Cambell and partner Petr Mrazek continue on this path, all of the hard work that this team has done to become a more well-rounded squad will implode. The question remains: What can the Leafs do to fix it?
Marc-Andre Fleury could be an option. Maybe James Reimer? Maybe they just hope that Campbell from the first half was what we will see in the postseason. I personally don't think that hope is a strategy, but luckily I don't have to make the decision. I just get to judge it.
2. Robertson Sparks Second Line
It's crazy that watching every game makes you in tune with the team. Just kidding, it makes perfect sense. So, I'm not surprised that my statement about Nick Robertson came true. In my last "5 Takeaways" column, I mentioned that Robertson should be playing on the second line. He is good enough and it would help Sheldon Keefe understand what his role could be in the future.
The Tavares line has gotten stale recently, but the young rookie provided the spark that got the line going again. They were the best line for either team, outshooting their opponents 9-1, picking up a +1 rating and having an xGF% of 80%. Robertson himself got his first career regular season goal. Tavares broke his 14-game goal drought with a nice wrister in the first period.
This line has some good chemistry, particularly Robertson and William Nylander, who complement each other perfectly. If Keefe wants to make the Leafs a more multi-dimensional team, he should keep this group together.
The only issue is that it puts Alex Kerfoot in a strange spot. His 5-on-5 scoring has been very underrated this year. Kerfoot is currently 27th in points at even strength, ahead of stars like Elias Lindholm, Nathan MacKinnon and David Pastrnak among others. However, his fit with Tavares and Nylander isn't ideal. He was pushed down the fourth line as a left winger. Considering the Leafs are so tight against the cap, it makes no sense to have a fourth line left-winger making $3.5 million. If Robertson can prove himself on the second line in a larger sample size, it's time for Kerfoot to go.
3. Matthews Gunning for 60
If there is one aspect that is not problematic in the slightest for the Leafs, it is Auston Matthews. The Leafs are 5-6-1 in their last 12, and issues like goaltending, depth, and defense have all arisen. However, one of the few constants with this team is that Matthews is scoring at a rate that we haven't seen since prime Steven Stamkos and Alexander Ovechkin. He is now on pace for 60 goals in 79 games, while playing elite defense and winning the majority of his draws.
The only player who could challenge Matthews' bid for a first career Hart Trophy is New York Rangers' goalie Igor Shesterkin who is having a better season than even Carey Price in 2015.
The Leafs are in turmoil, but Matthews is better than ever. He notched two tonight that energized the team. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough and Thatcher Demko made some excellent saves on the Leafs' star center in the last few minutes to preserve the win.
4. "Simmer" Hits 1K
One of the perennially underappreciated forwards of his time, Wayne Simmonds hit 1 000 games in his NHL career last night. It was an important milestone for a player who deserves more credit for the career he has had. He has 262 goals and 259 assists for 521 points. He was possibly the best net-front presence of my lifetime. In his prime with the Philadelphia Flyers, "Wayne Train" was one of the greatest power play threats in the entire NHL.
Simmonds' influence goes far beyond that as well. He is one of a handful of Black players to ever play in 1 000 NHL games, joining Donald Brashear, Mike Grier, Trevor Daley and Jarome Iginla. He was the first Black player to even win the All-Star MVP award, which he did in 2017. He has been a key member of the Hockey Diversity Alliance and is doing an excellent job at spreading information about how difficult it was to grow up a Black man in hockey.
It's been a tough season for the winger, but let's celebrate Simmonds after his 1 000th game.
5. Assessing Vancouver's Chances
Could the Canucks do it? Bruce Boudreau has Vancouver on the verge of an astonishing playoff berth. The Western Conference wild card race is absolutely thrilling and the Canucks are right in the middle of it.
Vancouver's .916 SV% since his appointment ranks second in the league. Elias Pettersson and JT Miller are firing at a rate that we’ve rarely seen from stars in Vancouver. The Canucks have finally identified cheap, young depth pieces that add a different dimension to the team.
They’ll have to get past Edmonton and Dallas/Nashville to get there, while holding off the Ducks and the Jets. However, as long as they don’t trade away JT Miller, the Canucks could make an unlikely push to the postseason.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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