The Leafs' top line celebrates with Brodie-Holl (Kirk Irwin, Getty Images)
The Leafs' top line bailed them out again in a rollercoaster victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The concerning trends of the past few games continued, as the Leafs blew a comfortable 3-0 lead after a dominant first period.
Here are my 5 takeaways from a mixed performance against Patrik Laine and company.
1. The Leafs' First Line Continues on a Tear
The Leafs can feel confident against either Tampa Bay or Florida in the sense that they know that they'll be able to roll out the best line in that series. The Bunting-Matthews-Marner line is clicking like we've never seen of a trio in Toronto for decades. The mix of skill, physicality and skating ability complements each other perfectly. They dominate play together, notching a league-high 64% xGF% among all lines with at least 250 minutes played together. They've scored 52% of the Leafs' points in the last 7 games.
In a month where the Leafs have faced a lot of uncertainty, the top line's brilliance has remained constant. All three players have at least 45 points. They are all in the top 10 of points at even strength. Matthews' and Marner's evolution into defensive monsters has helped, but the addition of Michael Bunting has been the main catalyst for the excellence of the 2021-22 Leafs team. For just $1 million AAV, the Scarborough native has become the Leafs' third most valuable forward. His market value, as per Dom Luszczyszyn's model, is $11.4 million, a whopping increase of $10.4 million. He has been unbelievable and he is officially my favourite player on the Leafs.
Toronto fans have been asking for their very own Brad Marchand for years. Out of nowhere, the former Arizona Coyote has fulfilled that role.
2. Mrazek Can't Ease Concerns about his Play
Petr Mrazek's goaltending style is bound to induce a heart attack to a Leafs fan someday. He's Tim Thomas-lite (or Aaron Dell 2.0) in the sense that he acts as if he has no boundaries, often straying out of his goal to handle the puck unnecessarily or to challenge a shooter. If it often leaves the net wide open and we've been seeing opponents take advantage.
Yet again, Petr Mrazek was let down by his defense, but you would like a save occasionally when he's most often going on Dora the Explorer level adventures around his crease. To be fair to him, he only conceded one even strength goal last night, but this performance will barely diminish the noise about the Leafs' goaltenders.
Sheldon Keefe seems optimistic that Jack Campbell is back to his best, but I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime, we can't have Mrazek conceding 4 to a Blue Jackets team whose leading scorer is Boone Jenner.
3. Time to Pair Lyubushkin with Rielly?
Ilya Lyubushkin has been a pleasant surprise in Toronto so far, and this game was no different. He makes aggressive pinches at times, but he always manages to find a way to recover and stop his mistakes from becoming high danger scoring chances. He never quits, always harassing his opponents until he gets the puck back. Integrally, he is one of the Leafs' few defensemen who had no issues with physical play. He rarely shies away from shoving matches, more often joining in to protect his new teammates. HIs best quality may be his ability to defend against the rush. When Dubas acquired the Russian Bear, his team was coming off of two leaky games in which their lack of pace on the blueline was exposed. Lyubushkin has fixed that since his arrival.
By contrast, Morgan Reilly has had a rougher month. He has a xGF% of 42.8% in his last 15 games, which is towards the lower end of the spectrum on the Leafs roster. Since he lost his partner, TJ Brodie, Rielly hasn't looked like himself.
My proposal is that it may be time to try Lyubushkin on the top pairing with Morgan Rielly.
Rielly has always had his best results with a safety blanket beside him, whether it be Ron Hainsey or TJ Brodie. Lyubushkin is quick enough to play with Rielly and Rielly's puck-moving may be enough to cover what has proven to be Lyubushkin's only weakness.
I think it's a match.
4. Muzzin Back on the Ice
Jake Muzzin has been one of the Leafs' most reliable defensemen in recent memory. So why did I get a sinking feeling of dread when I read the news that he was back skating?
Obviously, it's great news for a guy who has been excellent in the league for years However, I was getting excited about some possible cap shenanigans. Keeping Muzzin out of regular season games gave the Leafs close to $7 million in cap space to work with, due to Muzzin's salary being placed on LTIR. That would have been enough for multiple contributors or even just one JT Miller.
The Leafs of 2022 have proved that the Leafs of late 2021 were a bit of a mirage and that they are a step below the elite teams of both the league and their division. Going into the deadline with just $2 million in cap space won't help the Leafs acquire a difference-maker, which they clearly need. It's still possible that they hold Muzzin off until the playoffs, hoping he "returns to full health." However, we may not be able to add much to this current Leafs roster if Muzzin is ready to come back in the near future.
5. Is Max Domi a Fit?
Domi had one of his best games of the season, proving my hypothesis that he turns into prime Gordie Howe whenever he encounters the Leafs. He picked up two assists, one of a Sean Kuraly deflection and one off of a beautiful pass to Jack Roslovic that tied the game. He also had a furious fight with Justin Holl after a battle along the boards.
It led me to believe whether we may consider trading for Domi at the deadline. I personally feel that Domi fits the bill of what the Leafs are looking for on offense, another tough, versatile scorer who can slot onto all four lines. However, his expensive contract complicates things and the team may be better off looking elsewhere.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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