Auston Matthews skates past an adoring crowd (Julian Avram, Getty Images)
As Sportsnet's Luke Fox so eloquently put it, the Toronto Maple Leafs have 99 problems and Auston Matthews might just outscore each one. It was a famous game in the history of Auston Matthews' young career that sealed his status as the favourite for both the Hart Trophy and the Rocket Richard Trophy.
Here are my 5 takeaways as the Leafs' top line goes absolutely ballistic once again.
1. I'm in Awe
The Leafs of 2022 are a very flawed team. In the latter stages of 2021, they could call upon elite goaltending and reliable defending to keep them in games. However, now that the dog days of winter have hit, the Leafs have pinned their hopes on one single player. The crazy thing is, it may be a sustainable method of success.
In his past 48 games, star center Auston Matthews has an utterly ridiculous 42 goals and 73 points. Each of those marks lead the NHL. In that stretch, no other player has scored more than 31 goals, 11 less than Matthews. Prorated over an 82-game season, Matthews' pace would be equal to scoring 72 goals and 125 points. He's been going utterly ballistic.
As pointed out by Jonas Siegel, in the last 30 years, only Alex Ovechkin, Mario Lemieux, Alex Mogilny, Luc Robitaille and Teemu Selanne can lay a claim to being able to match Matthews' pace. Aside from Mogilny, all of those players are Hall of Famers, and I'd argue that Mogilny himself deserves to be enshrined. Even after scoring just 1 goal in the first 9 games of the season, Matthews is projected to score 63 goals and 110 points. It would be quite possibly the best season in Toronto Maple Leafs history.
What may be even wilder is that I haven't even mentioned his defensive impacts. The Leafs boast a xGF% of 64% with Matthews on the ice, which is all the more impressive when you consider that Matthews is typically playing against his opponents' top lines. The Leafs surrender just over two expected goals per game with him on the ice, a top-5 mark in the league among forwards. He's a takeaway machine and he rarely loses his man on the ice.
Auston Matthews is possibly the best player in the NHL and will have a legitimate claim to being the most talented Toronto Maple Leaf of all-time very soon. He's 24 years old. Let's appreciate him while he's still here.
2. It was 3-1... for the Eighth Time
For the third straight game, the Leafs watched a comfortable two-goal advantage evaporate. It's the 8th time this has happened since January 1. Why does this keep occurring and how can Sheldon Keefe's team fix it?
The Leafs' poor mentality has been an issue for years now. Dating back to being up 4-1 in the third period against Boston 9 years ago, the Leafs have showcased a stunningly accurate tendency to toss away comfortable leads. Yet again, a 3-1 lead was not safe in the hands of one of the league's better teams.
Leafs' games are starting to become deja vu. Go up early in the first, go stale in the second, need to score multiple goals in the third. It's becoming frustrating, as this team shouldn't have this happen so often.
All the Leafs can hope to do is to work on their mental fortitude and try to continue to come back from the brink in these games. Let's hope we don't see three consecutive blown leads in the postseason.
3. Pierre Engvall Becoming One of the League's Most Underrated Forwards
In just under 5 months, the discussion about Pierre Engvall went from "Is he good enough for this team?" to "Is he a good fit on the second line?" It's been a breakout year for the Swede, as he continues to employ his giraffe powers to the Leafs' advantage. In 13 games alongside David Kampf and Ilya Mikheyev, Engvall has an xGF% of 66.7%. The team doesn't exactly have much offensive potency, but they drive play at an elite level. Rarely do I watch that line and feel concerned about them being hemmed in their own zone.
Nick Robertson had a so-so game with John Tavares and William Nylander and I'm starting to think we could see Engvall graduate to the top-six. This is what I'm currently envisioning:
Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Engvall-Tavares-Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf-Kase
?-Kerfoot-Spezza/Simmonds
I'm not saying that playing Engvall in the top-six is a guaranteed success, but his blend of speed and size makes him a player that could thrive with Tavares and Nylander.
The fourth line then becomes a bit uncertain. They could pursue a low-key deadline addition like Calle Jarnkrok, Johan Larsson, Colin Blackwell or Vladislav Namestnikovfor the left wing slot. Depending on whether the Leafs want physicality or skill, they could play either Spezza or Simmonds on the right wing. The Leafs have a couple easy matchups on paper; they should try this out in one of the games to see how it works.
4. Carson Soucy Would be a Perfect Leaf
The Leafs need a defenseman at the deadline. This game emphasized that need once again. They are looking for a player who can dish out heavy hits, is a good skater, can move the puck and can play all throughout a defense corps. Seattle Kraken defenseman Carson Soucy is a seamless fit.
It's almost too perfect. He can play either on the left or the right-side. Per Goals Above Replacement, Soucy is ranked 9th in the league among all defensemen, ahead of players like Roman Josi, Victor Hedman and Shea Theodore. At 6'5, he could be a body mover at even strength and on the penalty kill.
This is an ideal fit for the Leafs and if I'm Dubas, I'm pulling the trigger on any Soucy trade that Ron Francis offers.
5. Leafs Legend Jared McCann Staying in Seattle
For 72 hours, Jared McCann was a Toronto Maple Leaf. Us Leafs fans will never let him forget it, always joking about his "Leafs legend" status. Unfortunately, the memes will never come to fruition; no McCann reunion in Toronto will occur. The forward is staying in Seattle long-term, after penning a 5-year, $25 million deal with the Kraken.
He's earned it after establishing himself as Seattle's best forward and possibly even their best player in the franchise's first ever season. His play-driving still leaves me with some skepticism, but to be on pace for nearly 35 goals on one of the league's worst teams is very impressive.
It's a fun story and I wish him luck as GM Ron Francis tries to rebuild the team after a disappointing first season.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT IS INTENDED
Comments
Post a Comment