Mrazek shuts down Florida’s efforts (Andrew Lahodynskyj, Getty Images)
As we all expected, the Leafs followed up a loss against the brutal Montreal Canadiens with a dominant win against the powerhouse Florida Panthers.
Here are my 5 takeaways from a great bounce-back victory at Scotiabank Arena.
1. Mitch Marner is an Absolute Force
Due to a mixture of factors including Auston Matthews’ historic pace, Toronto’s crease problems and blue line instability, Mitch Mariner’s unreal 2022 has gone somewhat under-the-radar.
Since returning from COVID-19 protocol, Marner has played in 30 games. During that span, Marner has 21 goals (!) and an NHL-leading 53 points. That’s a pace of 55 goals and 145 points in a full 82-game season. While the points are obviously terrifying, Marner’s goal scoring is the real standout stat here.
Marner’s overall game has previously suffered due to his lack of a reliable shot. Essentially, defensemen would leave Marner wide open and mark his teammates. This would prevent the space for Marner’s line mates and he’d have a tougher time making plays. However, Marner has developed a deadly wrister that makes him impossible to leave open. He is no longer an afterthought on Toronto’s power play. He is often the focus.
Marner’s 16.0% shooting percentage is by far a career high. In his last 30 games, Marner’s 13 even strength goals trail only Matthews and the perennially underrated Elias Lindholm.
That’s not all. Marner’s relentless skating in his own end and ability to intercept passes is elite. Despite being Toronto’s second most-used player on the penalty kill (behind David Kampf), the Leafs generate 3.5 xG per 60 compared to just 2.1 xG against. Those are Selke Trophy numbers. Although I’m in the camp that Patrice Bergeron will run away with the Selke this season, Marner should be up there. He’s one of the league’s most underappreciated defensive forwards.
The concerns around Marner are typically a lack of playoff production. Admittedly, that’s a fair criticism of the diminutive winger. However, because his offensive game is much more unpredictable, he will undoubtedly be an asset in May.
2. Petr Mrazek Redeems Himself
Unlike some other members of Leafs media, I’m not going to overreact to a good game from Mrazek. In my opinion, the Czech’s biggest issue since joining Toronto has been an inability to find momentum. So, I still think it’s entirely possible that Mrazek loses his mind in a very important game against the Boston Bruins.
Nevertheless, despite being a very vocal critic of the netminder, I must admit that the Florida game was top business by Mrazek. He’s been held back by his incessant desire to stray out of his crease and his poor rebound control. Though I was frustrated by his positioning on Florida’s first goal, the third period was possibly the best hockey I’ve seen from Mrazek since he joined the team.
He swallowed rebounds with comfort. He only went out of his crease 4 times (I was counting). He was a lot more composed with his movement, which is often downright erratic.
I’m not optimistic enough to proclaim that everything is fixed. But if Mrazek can start stringing together games like this, Toronto’s chances for playoff success are significantly improved.
3. The 4th Line Hurts My Eyes
(MoneyPuck.com)
It’s a little fuzzy, but essentially this graphic is showing the xGF% for all forward lines. If you can’t tell already, I’m a big xGF% guy. It demonstrates how good a team, a line or a player is at generating offense and preventing high-danger chances.
What this graphic is showing is that the Leafs' fourth line had an expected goals percentage of 0%. Are you kidding me? 0%. They had no shots on goal, no high-danger chances and barely any offensive zone time. They were a complete non-factor. Blackwell has been a decent Leaf so far, adding a bit of a physical aspect to the fourth line. However, Spezza and Simmonds are not nearly good enough to be playing regular minutes on a Stanley Cup contender. Spezza can't produce offense like he could last year and Simmonds has lost a step or three.
Obviously, once Ondrej Kase gets back, one of Simmonds or Spezza will be gone. But I'm suggesting that maybe they both get booted to the role of 13th and 14th forward. Maybe Nick Abruzzese impresses in a limited role. Maybe Matthew Knies goes directly to the team after finishing his NCAA tournament run with Minnesota. Maybe Nick Robertson gets another shot in the NHL.
I don't know what the solution is, but I know that this requires a solution. It's a problem that needs fixing.
4. Toronto’s Defense Looks Wonderful
(TheAthletic.com)
This is the reason where I have no issue with complaining about the 4th line. Toronto's defense looks way better than it has for years. The Leafs' 2022 D-corps is deeper, more experienced and more talented than anything they've had for at least a decade.
Rielly-Lyusbushkin are developing chemistry, with Lyubushkin's physical play and defense against the rush allowing the offensively inclined Reilly to skate further up the ice on a regular basis. Brodie-Holl looks very stable and is adding more evidence to the statement that Brodie makes any of his partners transform into their best selves. Giordano already looks like a statement trade for the Leafs. He can contribute offensively and he is probably Toronto's best blueliner from a defensive perspective. Muzzin is en route to returning from his concussion. But the guy that has really impressed me is Timothy Liljegren.
Unfortunately, Toronto's depth might leave him on the outside looking in. However, it won't be for a lack of trying. Liljegren is adding a mean streak to his game and alongside Giordano, his defense has drastically improved. He can play quickly on the rush and he is getting more comfortable on the Leafs' PP2 unit.
I'm interested to see how this all works out, but I'd be really disappointed if Timothy Liljegren isn't afforded a shot in the postseason.
5. Florida Becoming Everybody’s Second Team
The Panthers are quickly becoming the most entertaining team in the NHL. Their cheap tickets, sunny atmosphere and terrifying roster are making them such a fun team to root for. I'm personally a big fan of theirs due to the fact that they are proving to be a home for so many "rejects". Not only that, but they are really, really good. The Eastern Conference is a bloodbath this season, so I can't say with utter confidence that they are going to make it to the Stanley Cup final.
Nevertheless, of all neutral teams in the NHL this season, the Panthers are the team that I always come back to. They are so fun and under interim coach Andrew Brunette, the Cats are a nice underdog story.
I can't guarantee a first playoff series win since 1996, but I think that Florida needs to be watched at least once by all hockey fans.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEY PUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
NO COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT INTENDED
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