Erik Kallgren shuts down Joel Kiviranta (Kevin Sousa, Getty Images)
No Auston Matthews, no problem. 25-year old rookie goaltender Erik Kallgren shut down the high-flying Dallas Stars, as the Leafs put in their best performance in weeks.
Here are my 5 takeaways from an unforgettable night for the Swedish netminder.
1. Breaking Out of his Kall
Erik Kallgren (pronounced Shall-grin) was the Leafs' best player on his first ever NHL start. Signed as a free agent from the Swedish Elite League's Vaxjo Lakers, Kallgren was expected to be a depth goalie for the Marlies with potential to improve. However, with Petr Mrazek performing at a nightmarish level and Jack Campbell sidelined with a rib injury, coach Sheldon Keefe had no choice but to start Kallgren.
He performed admirably, showing poise and composure far beyond his years. He tracked pucks very well, particularly with screened shots which both Leafs goalies have struggled with in recent weeks. His positioning was excellent, a welcome change from the erratic Mrazek. Despite probably being very nervous, on his first start in The Show, Kallgren had a couple beautiful stops that neither Mrazek nor Campbell has been saving lately.
As a result of his play, the entire team looked revitalized. Since the beginning of 2022, it hasn't looked like the Leafs' skaters have much confidence in their goalies. There seems to be a distinct lack of trust and the message has been displayed by the grim looks of Toronto's star players after a stupid goal. However, in this game, the Leafs' players felt confident advancing the puck and settling down on the penalty kill, as they knew that their last line of defense was strong and capable. This led to not only the best game from a Leafs' goaltender in a while, but the Leafs' best overall performance since beating the Carolina Hurricanes right after the All-Star break.
I don't think this is a signal that Kallgren is set to take the starter's job, though. I predict that he and Mrazek will split the duties about 50-50 until Campbell returns, in which case "Soupy" should get the majority of starts. But if Kallgren keeps this up consistently (let's not forget he was very good in the Coyotes game, too), crazier things have happened. We've seen unassuming goalies like Matt Murray and Jordan Binnington steal the starter jobs late in the season before leading their respective teams to a Stanley Cup. Why can't Kallgren join that group?
2. The Russian Bear Proves Me Right
After the overtime win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, I stated in my takeaways that it was time to consider pairing Ilya Lyubushkin with Morgan Rielly. My reasoning was that Lyubushkin was developing a reputation as a good safety blanket with underrated puck skills. These players have traditionally been able to get the best out of Morgan Rielly, as their physicality and ability to defend against the rush allows Rielly to skate forward and chip in offensively. Though Rielly has improved defensively, his offense is what makes him a star defenseman.
For the first time since Lyubushkin was acquired, Keefe paired the two rearguards for an entire game and I was very pleased with the results. The Russian logged 17:47, notching 6 hits and playing his trademark gritty style. The advanced analytics weren't stunning, but often physical players like Lyubushkin perform much better on the eye test than they do with the numbers.
I personally really liked how the two players meshed and the Leafs' defense is becoming very interesting. I have legitimately no clue what the D corps will look like for Game 1 of the playoffs.
3. Dissecting the Leafs' Defense
This Rielly-Lyubushkin situation is more important than you might think. It could completely change how GM Kyle Dubas approaches the trade deadline. They still have Jake Muzzin recovering and players like Travis Dermott and Timothy Liljegren still aren't consistent members of the team.
With Jake Muzzin, in particular, if all Leaf defensemen are healthy, he may not even be good enough to crack the team. As outrageous as that sounds, we have to consider how poor Muzzin has played this season. The Leafs are obviously looking for a right-handed defenseman for the second or third pair. We'll have to see if this Lyubushkin-Rielly combo works out over a prolonged period of time, but if he does, I don't think that Muzzin cracks the top-4. The Leafs' defense could look like this.
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Brodie-Holl
Sandin-?
Brodie-Holl and Rielly-Lyubushkin have good when on the ice together. Rasmus Sandin's play absolutely warrants a starting role for the postseason roster. So, who plays next to him? I think these are the options, in terms of likeliness.
1. Trade for a very cheap right-handed defenseman (Justin Braun, Mark Pysyk, Luke Schenn), but still play Muzzin beside Sandin
Rielly-Lyubushkin
Brodie-Holl
Muzzin-Sandin
Dermott-Braun/Pysyk/Schenn
2. Trade for a cheap left-handed defenseman (Jacob Middleton, Michael del Zotto, Robert Hagg) and shuffle up the top-4
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lyubushkin
Middleton/del Zotto/Hagg-Liljegren/Dermott
3. Trade for a top-4 defenseman (Hampus Lindholm, Mark Giordano, Ben Chiarot) by keeping Jake Muzzin on LTIR and bringing him back for the playoffs
Rielly-Brodie
Lindholm/Giordano/Muzzin-Chiarot
Sandin-Lyubushkin/Holl
Rubins-Holl/Lyubushkin
4. Don't make any trades and shuffle up the top-4
Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Lyubushkin
Dermott-Liljegren
`I think that covers most likely options for the Leafs' management staff. Let's see what path they choose.
4. Could Keefe Break up the Best Line in Hockey?
That's right: more lineup speculation.
With Auston Matthews out after a harsh suspension, Keefe shuffled his forwards around, notably making a line with Michael Bunting, John Tavares and Mitch Marner.
This trio excelled, earning a ridiculous 89.2 xGF% and an elite 77.2 Corsi%. Tavares picked up two points in the first 12 minutes of play alongside Marner and the results were good enough to induce some speculation about whether this line could last, even after Matthews returns from his suspension.
Bunting-Matthews-Marner has undoubtedly been the best line in hockey this season and he would be understandably hesitant to break them up. However, Stanley Cup champions require bold moves to get the best out of their roster. Frankly, I'd rather have two A- lines than one A+ line.
For a forward group as talented as Toronto's, it's unacceptable that their offense is completely driven by one line. It would be worth trying to keep Bunting-Tavares-Marner together, in my opinion.
I could see Keefe opting for either one of these lineups.
Kerfoot-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev
Robertson-Spezza-Kase
OR
Kase-Matthews-Nylander
Bunting-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev
Spezza-Kerfoot-Simmonds
OR
Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Robertson-Tavares-Marner
Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev
Kerfoot-Spezza-Kase
5. Jake Oettinger Impresses Once Again
One of the league's most underrated goalies, per my estimation, is Jake Oettinger of the Dallas Stars. He once again proved my theory with a stunning performance on Tuesday night. Though he lost the goaltending duel to Erik Kallgren, Oettinger was Dallas' best player, saving 2.7 goals above expected. He made a jaw-dropping glove save on William Nylander that I literally celebrated before realizing it wasn't in the net.
For good reason, Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski and Miro Heiskanen get most of the credit around Dallas' season. However, I personally think that "Otter" deserves a mention in that conversation. At just 23 years old, the former first-round pick will only improve. If Dallas can fix their depth issues and become a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, I expect that Oettinger will be in the conversation for a Vezina Trophy one day.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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