The St. Pats celebrate a win (Richard Lautens, Getty Images)
Backed by the strong play of Erik Kallgren, the Leafs shook off one of the league's best teams in the Carolina Hurricanes.
Here are my 5 takeaways from a St. Patrick's Day victory.
1. Is Kallgren the Answer?
He's making a good case for it, I'll tell you that.
Petr Mrazek is undoubtedly leaving in the offseason and Kallgren looks like he could be set to take over the reins as a backup to Jack Campbell, on the assumption that Campbell resigns obviously. Kallgren shouldn't be playing in any postseason games this season. He's 25 years old, has started just 2 games in the NHL and frankly his AHL numbers aren't even anything special.
However, his composure and poise are so impressive for a young goaltender. To me, it makes sense to stay on the path that Kyle Dubas has paved for the Leafs' crease. Give Kallgren a few chances, let him settle down at the NHL level and then demote him to the AHL where he will take over as the Marlies' starter. If either Mrazek or Campbell gets injured down the stretch, you know what you have in Kallgren and you should feel comfortable promoting him to be the backup.
He's been playing incredibly well, though. His game against Carolina was arguably even more impressive than the shutout against a Dallas team that be a bit lazy on offense at times. I can't claim that he is the real deal after 2 starts, but he really looks like a future answer in net. He's saved 80 of 83 shots in a Leafs uniform. He also leads the Leafs in goals saved above expected with 5, despite only playing in three games. He is second in the entire NHL in terms of goals saved above expected per 60.
2. The Kampf Line Continues to Shine
Though the Bunting-Matthews-Marner line deservedly earns all the plaudits, I've been lauding the Leafs' third line above all for the last few weeks. Engvall-Kampf-Mikheyev had another brilliant game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Here's a wild stat for you:
Against Carolina, that line had 0 shift starts in the offensive zone. In other words, they only ever started their shifts on defense. Despite that, the trio had a 67 xGF%, which led all lines. Sheldon Keefe can put them on the ice on any situation and know that they will have a positive impact. They are one of the best third line in all of hockey and despite my constant worries that the Leafs are a one-line team. it's safe to say that their third line is equally elite when compared to expectations.
They had another goal tonight, with Ilya Mikheyev directing a Justin Holl pass into the net. Mikheyev has really improved this season. That was his 12th goal of the season, adding to his career-high total this year. He provides great defense for a winger. Mikheyev is a UFA at the end of the season and it's always been expected that he would leave to pursue another destination where he may get more minutes. However, it seems as if he's enjoying his time now and I wonder what it would cost to bring him back.
3. The Leafs are...Good?
The Leafs simply can't beat bad teams. Luckily for them, in the playoffs, they won't have to play any bad teams. In their last 11 games, the Leafs are 3-3-1 against non-playoff teams. Yikes, not good right? In that same stretch, they are 4-0-0 against playoff teams, including a win last night against the league's second best team without the best player in the NHL (currently).
Last night, they had just one power play and were shorthanded on three occasions against one of the league's best special teams. You can be the most blatant Leafs hater in the world and you still have to admit that what the Leafs did last night was impressive.
Their two wins with Kallgren under center have put them 4 points ahead of the Boston Bruins for third place in the Atlantic. They are also just 1 point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning for second place (though Tampa does have a game in hand). It seems as if nobody will catch the Florida Panthers, especially now that they look like favourites in the Claude Giroux sweepstakes. However, if the Leafs can seal home-ice advantage, it could provide them an advantage over either Tampa Bay or Boston.
4. Trade Deadline Plans
This Kallgren business has started to change how the Leafs may approach the trade deadline. I'm not ruling a trade for a goaltender out completely, but it doesn't seem quite as important anymore. A winger for the fourth line seems crucial and I'd be stunned if we don't see a trade for a defenseman. However, it looks like a seller's market and the Leafs will likely have to overpay for any major incoming.
The Leafs' first round pick, Nick Abruzzese and Roni Hirvonen should all be on the table. If I were the GM, I would refuse any trade proposals including prospects Topi Niemela and Matthew Knies. Those two are blue-chippers who look like future stars and are the best examples of the Leafs' impressive draft record under Dubas.
I guess we'll just wait and see.
5. Revisiting the Offseason Goaltending Decision
Letting go of Frederik Andersen and bringing in Petr Mrazek seemed like a fine decision at the time, but now it looks absolutely nightmarish.
Does that mean that I would reverse the decision? This might be controversial, but I don't think so. As proven by this game, Freddie simply isn't a big-game goaltender. He was decent in the playoffs at times, but occasionally his poor play cost the Leafs games. I'm not saying that Campbell is much better, but paying $5 million annually for a goalie that struggles in high-pressure games isn't necessarily a decision that I regret.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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