Lionel Messi (Reuters)
For some, February is a month of love. For us football fans, February means only one thing: Champions League knockout stages.
We have some real corkers this year in the round of 16, including some matches that could go either way. I'll be waiting in anticipation to see how the next few weeks unfold.
For now, I'll be making my predictions for the first leg of every single matchup and simply previewing what I expect from each match. I'll have some minor tactical insights and I'll explain why I think each team will win or lose their match.
Let's begin with the highlight of the round.
PSG vs Real Madrid
Vinicius Jr (Quality Sports Images/Getty Images)
Oh baby, it's the big one. Two teams with legitimate shots at winning the whole tournament going head to head in a dynamic duel on the battlegrounds of Paris. Kylian Mbappe's current club going up against the team widely expected to secure his services as a free agent in the summer. Lionel Messi facing his former Madrid rivals once again. This match is filled with storylines and it'll be a thrilling match from start to finish.
PSG have basically already secured their Ligue 1 title in what is quickly becoming a farmer's league. They play a low-press, possession-based style of football and they rely on their superstars up front to secure them the three points. Their defense and midfield are both weaknesses and on paper, Madrid have the advantage in both those areas of the pitch. However, if PSG can feed the ball to Leo Messi and find some space for the rapid Kylian Mbappe, they are going to be hard to stop.
They still don't seem to have a style under Mauricio Pochettino, but if they can prevent Real Madrid's front three from bursting forward and splitting PSG's expected center-back pairing of Presnel Kimpembe and Marquinhos, they should be in good shape. Neymar is reportedly doubtful for the first leg, which is a big loss for Paris. All in all, they are going to need to focus on not getting overrun in midfield and concentrate on their defensive duties.
Madrid are also leading their domestic league, with a very strong all-around lineup coached by serial winner Carlo Ancelotti. The obvious X-factor in this match is Karim Benzema, who has been injured for the past few matches. He could return for this match, which would completely change the outlook of Real's hopes. Real's attack has been stale without the Frenchman, who is so key to creating opportunities with his link-up play and finishing ability. Brazilian star Vinicius Jr has been having a truly incredible individual season, finally putting together his obvious potential. Marco Asensio is expected to start on the right and he's had a few clutch moments in his career.
However, we all know that if los Blancos are to advance, it'll be on the strength of their pragmatic defense and their world-class midfield. Toni Kroos and Luka Modric will salivate at PSG's weaker midfield and target some nice passes. Madrid's defense has also suddenly become a major strength for them. The David Alaba-Eder Militao pairing has been very solid, though Militao has had a few mistakes this season and Messi/Mbappe will hope to exploit that.
All in all, this is such a tough match to predict. But I'm going to say that on home ground, the Parisiens are just going to have enough to crack down their Spanish opponents. They seem to be the underdogs on paper due to their lack of structure, but sometimes a club can just outscore their opponent and that's what I am predicting here. I think Messi and Mbappe will run rampant and that Marco Verratti will showcase his immense quality with a top-tier performance.
Prediction: PSG wins 2-1
Sporting CP vs Manchester City
Riyad Mahrez (James Gil, Getty Images)
This one seems much more simple on paper than the PSG-Madrid clash. The Cityzens should fully expect to move on from what has been a fairly simple draw. They just have so much quality all around the pitch, but Sporting are a fun underdog. I am expecting that Pep Guardiola's side will advance in this draw, but I'd be interested to see how Ruben Amorim's team adjusts to such a tough matchup.
The club from Lisbon are a very malleable side, often shifting from a dominant possession style to a full counter-attacking technique. Their three-man defense of Zouhair Feddal, Sebastian Coates and Gonzalo Inacio is capable of raising some eyebrows, as they are all very good on the ball and will look to advance play on the counter. Sporting's midfield will dictate how this game ends. The Joao Palhinha-Matheus Luiz duo are fully capable of holding onto the ball, even against City's talented midfield destroyer Rodri, who will look to break up play if the Portuguese side targets a more possession-heavy game plan. However, they are equally able to play in a deeper role and be patient with their passes.
The flanks are going to be very crucial if Sporting are ready to pull off the upset. John Stones could start at right-back, but he is usually a center-back and he looked uncomfortable in the position against Milot Rashica during the Norwich City match on Saturday. Rashica is no Pedro Goncalves, one of the best players outside of a top-5 league in Europe. Goncalves is capable of exposing Stones' lack of pace in this game and he could be Sporting's best player in this match.
Despite Sporting's obvious strengths, it's going to be hard to beat City. They are currently the betting favourites to take home the UCL title this season and it is the only trophy that they are yet to take home in all honesty. Although a 3-4-3 formation is constructed to be tough to break down for a high-possession side, City have a few great creative forces up front that can also act as poachers. Raheem Sterling, in particular, is the type of player who can dictate a whole leg. Even if Sterling is relegated to a bench role, Man City still have Jack Grealish, who will lick his lips over a matchup with the young Pedro Porro down the right-hand side.
Porto only play with two natural central midfielders, so if they want to dominate possession, they are going to need to overload the center of the pitch. Unfortunately for them, Manchester City will be ready for that. Whoever they decide to play at left-back, whether it be Oleksandr Zinchenko or Joao Cancelo, will fold into midfield whenever City are pushing high up the pitch, which will prevent Palhinha from dictating the pace of the match.
In general, this seems like a match that really only has one likely outcome. City are tough to score against anyways due to their world-class shot-stopper Ederson and their great center-back depth, but they'll be even harder to break down as they will dominate possession and challenge Sporting's front three to press with intensity. This has the makings of a comfortable win for Pep Guardiola's team.
Prediction: Manchester City wins 3-0
Inter Milan v Liverpool
Virgil van Dijk (Simon Stacpoole, Getty Images)
Two clubs that are pretty evenly matched with identical 12-6-2 records in the league thus far have been sentenced to facing each other in the UCL Round of 16. It's going to be an intense matchup between two well-managed squads, though with two conflicting styles. Both teams have been picking up results lately, despite not having the most convincing of forms, but each club will have to be at their best if they want to head to the second leg with an advantage.
Inter have picked up right where they left off last season under Antonio Conte by appointing former Lazio boss Simone Inzaghi to take charge of the club. Inzaghi has seamlessly helped continue utilizing Conte's 3-5-2 formation, but he has made a few minor changes. Inzaghi had developed a midfield capable of playing in layers, with Marcelo Brozovic laying a bit deeper and offering a shielding midfielder as well as a destroyer in the center of the pitch. Nicolo Barella, who is usually charged with linking defense with attack, which is such a key part of Inter's play style, has been ruled out of this game after picking up a red card in his last UCL match against Real Madrid. Inter are going to miss him big-time, as it'll create a bit of a separation between Brozovic and Turkish attacking midfielder Hakan Calhanoglu, which will undoubtedly be exploited by players like Thiago as much as possible. Veteran Arturo Vidal is expected to take Barella's place and his lack of pace is going to make it tough for keeping up with the Reds' more deep-lying playmakers.
Though Inter's midfield is the most complex tactical set-up they possess, there are still a lot of other worthy notes to make. Denzel Dumfries and Ivan Perisic are expected to start at wing-back and the two of them are typically much more "wing" than "back". They will bomb forward to support Inter's striker pairing and keep Liverpool's fullbacks on their toes from start to finish. Speaking of the strikers, Lautauro Martinez and Edin Dzeko have both been very impressive this year, flashing signs of a blossoming partnership with excellent link-up play and cohesion in the penalty box.
The last point for Inter is their defenders. The trio of Alessandro Bastoni, Stefan de Vrij and Milan Skriniar is usually one of the best in all of Europe, but currently Bastoni's status for the match is unclear (he's coming off of an injury) and de Vrij is in poor form. If Bastoni can slot right in on the left of the back three, there will be a much clearer correlation between the defense and the attackers. This will give Inter the option to let loose on the counter-attack.
Liverpool are almost as interesting from a tactical perspective as Inter are. The spotlight will obviously be on the front three and how much of a role Sadio Mane will really have for the Reds. Liverpool's offense has been stale since Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane's departure for the African Cup of Nations in January outside of Diogo Jota. I'm intrigued as to what variety of forwards Jurgen Klopp will select, particularly if Luis Diaz will get the start over Mane on the left wing. Whatever setup Klopp opts for, Liverpool's forwards will make-or-break this leg for them.
I already mentioned just how crucial the battle in midfield will be here. Brozovic, Vidal and Calhanoglu are going to have to be very versatile and aware of their positioning or else the Reds are going to establish a base in the center of the park. Jordan Henderson, if he starts, is going to have a field day if Calhanoglu can't challenge him. Liverpool's defense is also fascinating. Joel Matip and Virgil van Dijk play a very high press, which in theory would be a good matchup for Inter's link-up play up front, but because of the multi-dimensional play of the two strikers, van Dijk is going to have be excellent and make sure that Edin Dzeko doesn't get too many open looks at goal.
Personally, I do feel that Liverpool are just a little bit better as a team than Inter, and I think that we are going to see a master-class from Thiago, particularly if he finds himself matched up with Arturo Vidal. If Thiago can spot some passes to Liverpool's rapid wingers, they should come out on top in a heavyweight clash at the San Siro
Prediction: Liverpool wins 2-1
Red Bull Salzburg vs Bayern Munich
Robert Lewandowski (Joosep Martinson, Getty Images)
This is going to be an exciting, offensive match with lots of skill and attacking intent on display. I'm excited to check out this game, as Bayern Munich have looked very vulnerable recently and Salzburg's young team is capable of tearing holes in Bayern's squad if they are not at their best. If Bayern play anything like they did against Bochum in the Bundesliga on Saturday, this draw could be very interesting.
As I mentioned, Salzburg's team is insanely young, as they have fielded a starting XI with an average age of 23 years in the majority of their matches this campaign. Although energetic youth is often helpful, lacking any veteran presence can be a death sentence in the Champions League, where mental toughness is crucial. Of all of Salzburg's expected starters, only left-back Andreas Ulmer is over the age of 24. All of the other key players of the Austrian team are lacking in UCL familiarity. For most of them, this is their first-ever Champions League knockout stage match.
In defense, full-backs Ulmer and Rasmus Kristensen are going to be crucial. Bayern are expected to play Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry in the wing-back positions, but neither of them are known for defensive responsibility. Kristensen, in particular, will look to challenge Coman and fire crosses into the box or put through balls in for Salzburg's strike force. In midfield, Mohamed Camara and Nicolas Seiwald are going to need to sit deep and hold off Bayern's more advanced midfielders, like Leroy Sane and Thomas Muller. If neither Camara or Seiwald can stay vigilant in a holding role, Salzburg are going to get exposed. The obvious highlight for this squad is striker Karim Adeyemi. The former Bayern youth prospect is so technically gifted and his rapid pace will challenge Bayern's defenders. Salzburg have a very clear game plan: break up possession in the center of the park and then use players like Luka Sucic or Brendan Aaronson to move the ball ahead for Adeyemi to latch onto. If the German wonderkid can use his off-ball movement well, Salzburg could notch a few goals.
We all know that Bayern are capable of winning this whole tournament, but currently they are not at their best. They have three major injuries to players that have a huge impact on the team. Alphonso Davies, who is crucial to Julian Nagelsmann's system by operating in pockets of space and pushing the play forward has myocarditis. Leon Goretzka, one of the best midfielders on Earth is a crucial anchor in the midfield of Die Roten. The most painful injury loss of all is to goalkeeper Manuel Neuer, arguably the best keeper in the world. His distribution and ability in the air ties everything together for this Bayern team. His replacement, Sven Ulreich, has struggled in two Bundesliga games this season, and Salzburg will smell weakness between the pipes.
However, the rest of Bayern's team is so good that they should still prevail here. Up front, they have Robert Lewandowski, the best striker on the planet is capable of breaking through Salzburg's high line with ease. He'll be a major threat off of set pieces too, as he should be able to outmuscle Salzburg's young center-back duo in the air. While Salzburg overload their midfield with deep-lying playmakers, Bayern have three world-class midfielders from an attacking perspective in Sane, Muller and Joshua Kimmich. All three of these players are going to press with intensity and dictate play. The defense may be where there could be some concerns, as Niklas Sule, committed to Bayern's rivals Borussia Dortmund, has been shaky lately, and Benjamin Pavard is not a natural center-back.
I do feel like this is will be a high-octane match worthy of a watch for any casual fan. Bayern's skill in the middle of the park will help them dominate the battle in midfield, but their concerning defense could come back to haunt them. I think both teams will get on the scoresheet here, but Bayern's firepower should give them the edge.
Prediction: Bayern wins 4-1
Villarreal v Juventus
Matthijs de Ligt (Tom Gott, 90min)
Quite possibly the most evenly-matched draw in the entire round of 16, Villarreal and Juventus both employ a very direct style of football and we could be in for a high-scoring match if each squad's striker pairing can play at their very best. Juve have the firepower, but Villarreal have shown that they can duke it out with Europe's elite under Unai Emery.
Villarreal are the prototype of a good Spanish side. They have a very effective defensive structure that isn't necessarily tactically advanced, but rather a more simplistic view when defending. If Juventus can't find a way to make dangerous passes into the final third or make runs around Villarreal's full-backs, this could be a stale match. Raul Albiol and Pau Torres are a very intelligent center-back pairing, so it's possible we might see the two completely neutralize Alvaro Morata and Dusan Vlahovic. On the flanks, Juan Foyth and Alfonso Pedraza are quite different in terms of style. Foyth often drops back into a back three to allow Villarreal to control the midfield. Pedraza on the other hand, is more likely to bomb forward and supply crosses for Villarreal's strikers.
In attack is where Villarreal will really look to outmatching their opponents. Gerard Moreno and Arnaut Danjuma are both quick, smart, skilled and good finishers. As I'll mention later, Juventus are struggling to field two senior center-backs for this matchup, so Moreno and Danjuma will be licking their lips in anticipation. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Yellow Submarine lines up for the game, as they have a couple options. They could go with a more pragmatic 3-4-3 and use Danjuma in a winger role. Emery could opt for a direct 4-3-3 to hold off Juventus' forays forward. Or they could utilize the 4-4-2, which is what I expect, to bring as much pace as possible to the starting XI. I'm not sure what to expect.
Juventus undoubtedly have the edge in terms of player personnel in midfield and in attack. Defense, however, is the issue. Juventus are missing three center-backs, with Leonardo Bonucci, Giorgio Chiellini and Daniele Rugani all expected to miss the match. This means that Danilo, who is a full-back, will likely be paired with Matthijs de Ligt. Sometimes full-backs play excellently at the heart of a back 4, as they can use their pace to make ball recoveries. Sometimes, they lack the physical strength to stay ahead of their man, and they get exposed. Juve will need to hope that Danilo can fill the former, as de Ligt is not capable of holding off the Moreno-Danjuma pair on his own.
Juventus are much more likely to beat Villarreal by outscoring them then they are keeping them off the scoresheet. Alvaro Morata has been much improved as a second striker and Dusan Vlahovic gives la Bianconeri a focal point that they haven't had in years. The two are going to give Villarreal a tough time with their physicality and aggressiveness. With Juan Cuadrado expected to be on the right side of Juventus' midfield, the two strikers are going to have a creative outlet to offer them support on the counter and in possession. Look for Adrien Rabiot as an X-factor in this game. He has scarcely ressembled a footballer this year, putting in several awful performances, but I get a feeling he holds the key to breaking open the Yellow Submarine.
There's little point in making predictions if you simply predict the expected outcome each time. A closely-fought draw seems like a likely result of this match, but I have a feeling that this is going to be a huge Juventus win. I understand that they are missing Paulo Dybala and their veteran center-backs, but I think Vlahovic and Morata will run rampant in this match to lead the Italian side to a famous victory.
Prediction: Juventus wins 3-1
Chelsea v Lille
Hakim Ziyech (Chloe Knott, Getty Images)
On paper, this should be a dismantling by Chelsea. The champions of the world are up against a team in the bottom half of the French league. Chelsea are perfectly capable of tearing apart Lille at their best, but they simply haven't been near that level since winning the Champions League in May. The Blues will have to be wary, but Lille aren't expected to pose much of a threat to Thomas Tuchel's side.
Whatever the outcome of the match winds up being, you can be sure that Chelsea will dictate how the game ends. The Blues love to possess the ball and they attack in waves. If les Dogues aren't prepared to throw multiple defenders behind the ball, Chelsea will make Lille's keeper (either Leo or Ivo Grbic) very busy. Hakim Ziyech should start in midfield and he will more than likely dominate on his flank, especially after Lille's sale of left-back Reinildo in the January window. In my opinion, the best way to beat Lille is on the wings, so Ziyech, Mount/Havertz/Pulisic, and Chelsea's wing-backs will be crucial.
Chelsea's back three is very solid and they will need to be great to deal with lethal Canadian Jonathan David. David is a rare striker in the sense that he is amazing on the counter, but he can also control play in the final third. Based on the way Chelsea play, David will be more likely to create on the counter-attack, so expect Thomas Tuchel to inject some pace into his back three. That might be Cesar Azpilicueta or it could be Antonio Rudiger or both.
The midfield battle will be fascinating. For Chelsea, Jorginho and N'Golo Kante work best in a deeper role, as it gives them the most options for pushing the play forward. On the other side, Xeka and Benjamin Andre like to push further forward, and intersect to find the ideal link-up plays with their wingers. If Jorginho and Kante can hold off Lille's pair, Lille will have trouble pushing Chelsea on the counter-attack. This will make it almost impossible for Lille to go toe-to-toe offensively with the Blues.
Lille are struggling in Ligue 1 this year. After one of the most stunning league titles in recent memory last season, fixture congestion has clearly left Jocelyn Gourvennec's side languishing. The one positive has been the man I already mentioned, Jonathan David. He has slowed down lately, but on the season as a whole, it's been a showcase of immense prowess for the striker. If we are to see an upset here, David and Burak Yilmaz are going to need to mix their experience and youth.
Sven Botman has an immense task ahead. The Dutchman is valued at over $60 million by his team and he has a perfect opportunity to prove his worth. Thomas Tuchel is a good manager and he will understand that Chelsea's best chance of winning is to counter-press and get behind Lille's center-backs. If Botman and his expected partner, Jose Fonte, can stay vigilant, les Dogues could frustrate the European champions. He'll need to be quick and strong, as I expect that Tuchel will switch to a more attacking 4-2-3-1 if his team can't break down Gourvennec's side.
I'm not going to predict a shock here. Chelsea are the better team, plain and simple. Although Chelsea's execution has been poorer in 2022 than it was immediately after Tuchel's hire, the Blues have developed into a very versatile team. They are able to effortlessly combine and win balls up the pitch, so that'll make them difficult to deal with.
Prediction: Chelsea wins 2-0
Manchester United v Atletico Madrid
One of the highlight clashes of the entire round, both of these teams have been very lacklustre in league walks so far this season. They've both been prone to playing down to lower teams and they haven't been able to assert dominance due to their lack of a fixed formation. I'm intrigued to see whether these teams open up and each attack each other or if they sit further back and let the play be dictated by their opponents.
United have one key to winning this match. They are going to need to need to have an aggressive tempo and challenge Atletico's defense for all 90 minutes. This will require an attack that is committed to a common goal. Marcus Rashford will be key to creating space in possession. His finishing and quality in the final third has been lacking in recent months, but his movement is still very valuable to United. The Red Devils' other attackers are going to be players to watch. Jadon Sancho started off his career at Old Trafford very poorly, struggling to complete dribbles and establish connections with his teammates. Now, though, he is finally on fire. Even against Atleti's patient defense, Sancho can be key to breaking them down. The last expected starter in United front three is Cristiano Ronaldo, the best ever player in Champions League action and an infamous killer of les Rojiblancos. He hasn't been a good fit in Ralf Rangnick's gegenpressing system, but he can still score goals like the rest of the elite players.
United's defense has been poor this year. Harry Maguire has been an utter human refrigerator at times. Raphael Varane hasn't been able to bring back the world-class form he showed at Real Madrid and the Red Devils' full-backs have been inconsistent. Luke Shaw and Diogo Dalot are capable of putting in match-winning performances, but they have also been terrible in some games. With opposing manager Diego Simeone's system emphasizing the flanks, Shaw and Dalot will have to be great.
Atletico's defensive record in LaLiga this season has been poor, as they have conceded more goals than 13 other teams in the division, a far cry from their play last season. In 38 games last year, Simeone's side conceded just 25 goals. In 25 matches so far in 2021-22, they have already allowed 24 goals hit the back of the net. However, at their best, they are very calm and comfortable. Diego Simeone is excellent in the sense that he is able to drill his team into switching between formations. Madrid are excellent at parking the bus and playing with a 5-3-1-1.
We know that Atletico can defend well when they need to, but they are going to need to score if they are to beat United. Midfield may be Atletico's best chance of breaking through the Red Devils' backline. Angel Correa, Rodrigo de Paul and Thomas Lemar are very advanced and fluid. Luis Suarez is a top-tier finisher and Atleti's wide midfielders should be able to feed him the ball on the counter. I'm skeptical that Atleti's backline is actually a strength for them, but strangely their offense may pose a legitimate threat to their opponents.
United are much more fluid and much more personable now that Paul Pogba is back in the side. He adds ball-carrying ability and swagger that didn't exist with Fred and Scott McTominay. He'll be a difference maker, mark my words. In a game that is expected to have few chances, one brilliant individual moment from Pogba could settle the match.
Prediction: Manchester United wins 1-0
Benfica v Ajax
Two young sides with extreme technical quality are matched up in what should be a thriller of a UCL tie. Benfica and Ajax are both very entertaining to watch, as they are both active squads with attacking intent. This will likely be a close matchup with lots of chances, so each team's goalkeeper will have to be on their toes for all 90 minutes.
Benfica are an excellent team with the ball. All throughout their XI, they have technical proficiency and ball-carriers. This will allow them to find creative solutions to deal with Ajax's direct press. They are equally capable of playing with solidity via their two former Premier League defenders in Jan Vertonghen and Nicolas Otamendi. Otamendi and Vertonghen are crucial with dealing with Ajax's dominant attack, an attack that scores a whopping three goals per match in the Eredivisie. Since Benfica's expected full-backs for this match are Valentino Lazaro and Alex Grimaldo, two players who are more well-suited to an attacking wing-back role, Ajax's wingers will be all over Benfica. If Otamendi or Vertonghen lose their movement even for a second, Ajax will put this match to rest.
Benfica have toyed with lots of different formations this year in midfield. They could employ a 4-3-1-2 in order to challenge Ajax on the front foot. They could go with a 4-3-3 and keep Julian Weigl as a deep-lying playmaker to help them on the counter attack. They could even utilize a 4-2-3-1 to match Ajax and create mismatches with man-marking. Either way, Benfica's midfield will be a worry for Ajax, as players like Weigl, Joao Mario, Adel Taarabt and Bernardo are capable of a moment of magic that could dictate this tie. They are going to need to have good link-up play with Benfica's expected forwards: Rafa Silva and Darwin Nunez. These two are the most crucial part of Benfica's team. In league play this campaign, the duo has a combined 45 goal contributions. Nunez' deadly finishing is a delectable pairing with Rafa Silva's beautiful passing range and they will look to catch Ajax's youthful center-back pairing unaware.
Speaking of that center-back pairing, Lisandro Martinez and Jurrien Timber have a combined age of just 44. Benfica's center-backs have a combined age of 68. So, yeah, this will be a learning experience for Martinez and Timber. They are both good passers and they are quite quick, so they can keep themselves out of trouble. They will have to hope that the full-backs alongside them can remain in a deeper role to provide support, as I would take Benfica's forwards over Ajax's central defenders any day of the week.
In attack is where Ajax truly excel. Their star man, Dusan Tadic, is considered one of the best players outside of Europe's top 5 leagues, and he will be crucial to picking up three points. His intelligence and crossing ability is a danger that is tough to deal with. Up front, Sebastian Haller, former West Ham flop, has been an utter monster. He became just the second player ever (after Cristiano Ronaldo) to score in all 6 Champions League group stage matches. He is a top finisher and Vertonghen/Otamendi will have to mark him well. On the right, Antony is one of the most thrilling players to watch. His skill level hasn't been seen since Neymar and at just 21 years old, he is a game-breaking talent. Steven Berghuis is also a nice addition to the side and his direct passing unlocks Ajax's front three.
This will be a match that is good on the eyes. Ajax have the edge on paper, but let's not forget that they recently had a culture shift following Marc Overmars' departure after toxic culture accusations. This could be in their mind during the match or they could be willing to purge the incident from their minds with a big win. It's a tough match to predict. Ajax's wingers are going to wreak havoc, but I'm not sure that the Amsterdam side has an answer to Darwin Nunez if he starts well. I'll settle for a draw.
Prediction: Ajax and Benfica draw 1-1
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