The Leafs' first three game losing streak since October indicates that the sky is falling in Leafs Nation. Toronto's lacklustre effort in Columbus showed that their loss to Montreal was not a wake-up call like Sheldon Keefe suggested.
Here are my 5 takeaways from the Leafs' most concerning loss in months.
1. The Leafs Aren't Getting Stops
Look, I know that stats aren't everything and as somebody who watches all the games this stat was stunning to me. But here's a chart that speaks volumes as to how poor Toronto's goaltending has been since the calendar to 2022.
via Jonas Siegel
Essentially this chart means that the Leafs' defense has actually been better in 2022 than it was in the first half of the season. So why are they allowing so many goals? Easy: goaltending.
On January 6, Jack Campbell was third in the league in terms of goals saved above expected with a mark of 14.9. Now, among goalies with at least 15 appearances, Campbell is 16th in the NHL with just 5.9 goals saved above expected. In other words, In other words, in the last 6 weeks, Campbell has allowed 9 goals more than expected, a fairly significant number.
Campbell was once again poor against the Jackets, conceding soft goals to Adam Boqvist and Brendan Gaunce. If early-season Campbell was between the pipes for the game last night, I promise that the Leafs would have won.
It's becoming a major concern and the Leafs now have to consider whether they truly want to give Jack Campbell a long contract extension in the offseason.
2. Tough Debut for the Russian Bear
Up until the 13th minute mark of the third period, it was a perfect start to Ilya Lyubushkin's Leafs career. He was very comfortable in his own end and he made smart choices with the puck. His presence on the blueline allowed Rasmus Sandin to push forward and have a good game on the offensive side of the puck.
However, one crucial mistake ended all good will for Lyubushkin. As the puck rolled to his board, he fanned on a shot and that allowed the quick Brendan Gaunce to sneak past the Russian. Gaunce was home-free. Campbell probably should have made the save, but Lyubushkin didn't make it easy on him.
I am encouraged by Lyubushkin's first 47 minutes and if he can cut out the mistakes from his game, he should be a big part of this team moving forward.
3. Forward Depth Becoming a Concern
If there is one thing that both the stats and the eye-test can agree on with these Leafs, it's that they are quickly becoming a one-line team. In November and December, the valuable contributions from the Tavares line, the Kampf line and even the Spezza line meant that opposing defenses could never rest against the Leafs. It created matchup nightmares that even the best coaches in the league couldn't handle.
In 2022, though, Toronto's depth has been negligible at best.
Since New Year's Day, Michael Bunting-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner have 25 even strength goals. 10 of those are from Bunting, by the way. What a signing that was.
Anyways, the rest of the team has just 28 5-on-5 goals in that time frame. That's right. The entire roster has just three more even strength goals than the Leafs top line.
The issues with the Tavares line are becoming more and more noticeable. The Leafs have been outscored 14-8 in the last 15 games with that trio on the ice without the man advantage. That's not good for a line whose cap hits take up almost 25% of the team's whole salary structure.
4. Tragedy Strikes for Top Prospect Amirov
The news broke today that former Leafs first round pick Rodion Amirov has been diagnosed with a brain tumour.
For a young man with his whole life ahead of him, it's terrible. He is expected to recover, but his growth as a player, which has already been hindered by injuries and a lack of consistent minutes in the KHL, will be pushed back even further.
Obviously hockey is secondary in this situation. He seems like a committed kid and I pray that Amirov can recover from this setback. His attitude has always impressed me and I hope that he can stay positive throughout this grueling process.
There are many websites to donate to organizations like SickKids that are doing their best to treat young kids that go through this. If you're feeling generous, I encourage anybody reading to make a small donation.
Get well soon, Rodion!
5. Patrik Laine is Incredible
Of course I don't regret picking Auston Matthews, but Patrik Laine always seems to be on a personal quest to convince as many Leafs fans as he can that he was the guy they should've picked. Every time we play Laine, he always seems to go ballistic and last night was no exception.
Two goals with a deadly wrister, including the OT winner, marked yet another inhuman performance on his recent streak. The Finn has been white-hot lately with 12 goals and 8 assists for 20 points in his last 10 games. He is shooting the puck at a 36.3% rate. That's wild. As Aaron Portzline pointed out in a recent article, some NBA players are connecting on less three-pointers than Laine is with his shots.
Laine is an RFA in the offseason and there will be teams thinking about an offer sheet. Columbus should do whatever they can to keep the winger in Ohio, as he is a legitimate star. In 31 games this season, Laine has notched 18 goals and 17 assists/
Though the Jackets are getting hit hard by the injury bug (especially between the pipes), Laine's dominance has led the team to winning 8 of their last 10 games. A playoff spot is almost impossible at this point, but it's worth noting that under first-year coach Brad Larsen, the team is now over .500. Laine is a huge part of that.
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