Demko stops Nylander (Jeff Vinnick, Getty Images)
The Leafs outshot their opponents heavily, but had nothing to show for it. Sounds familiar, eh?
Here are my 5 takeaways from a frustrating loss against the Vancouver Canucks as a nightmarish Western trip continues.
1. Getting Goalie’d Again
It’s been a recurring theme for the Leafs for seemingly the last century. They can outshoot and outchance their opponents every single game and they will still lose fairly often.
There was a game against the Rangers early in the year in which Igor Shesterkin made 40 saves in an OT victory. There was a bit of an argument amidst Leafs fans, as to whether Shesterkin had singlehandedly won the game for New York or if the Leafs made it too easy on him by only taking clean looks. That argument was pointless after yesterday’s game, because Demko undoubtedly saved the game for the Canucks.
The Leafs racked up 14 even-strength high-danger chances, which is defined as a chance in which the xGoals% of the opportunity is at least 33.3%. Using math, we can assume that the Leafs should have scored at least 4 goals against Demko, and that’s not even including the power play, which racked up the Leafs’ only two goals on the night.
It remains peculiar to me that a team full of 4 superstars that cost $40 million between the 4 of them are prone to getting shut down by a hot goalie so often. Do goalies see the Leafs on the schedule and hope to contribute to the meme of the Leafs outshooting their opponents and still losing?
Luckily, the Leafs have a matchup against Philipp Grubauer next and he’s been brutal this season. I’m getting frustrated with MoneyPuck’s Deserve-to-Win O’Meter and seeing the Leafs above 50% every game, despite still losing games in reality. They’ve now outshot their opponents 101-50 on this road trip and picked up 0 points.
Ugh.
2. Uncertain Future for Holl
In reality, it might actually be encouraging that Leafs fan are getting so frustrated about losing two straight games. It’s not a calamity by any means, but most fans (including yours truly) go to sleep in a mindless rage after just one loss. It shows that they are an elite team. Elite teams don’t lose often, so when they do, they get criticized.
One thing that isn’t common among elite teams after a loss is blaming a specific party for their role in the game. However, this happens after every single Leafs game. Yesterday’s target? Justin Holl.
It’s been an awful year for Holl as a whole, but there have been some encouraging performances lately. However, every time he has a game like he did yesterday night, I cringe at the fact that he is a second-pairing defenseman for this team. If anybody tells you we don’t need a Holl upgrade, they haven’t watched a game this season.
His amateurish play on JT Miller’s goal was face-palmingly awful. He flopped around like a fish and probably cost Petr Mrazek a chance to make a save on the play. I’m sure Holl could be decent in sheltered minutes on the third pairing, but his future is now far from the Leafs’ top-4. Maybe it’s a trade or maybe just a demotion to the Marlies.
My personal solution is to give him a few games in the press box like management did earlier in the season to wake him up. All I know is that if the Leafs truly are all-in, they need an upgrade. If it costs a first-round pick or even Nick Robertson/Rodion Amirov? I say Dubas should do it.
3. Fully Healthy at Last!
It’s so Leafs to finally have a fully healthy lineup for the first time all season and lose to the very average Vancouver Canucks.
Either way, the Leafs have a great chance to finish this month off very well. They have a few tough games, such as against Pittsburgh, Minnesota and St. Louis, but for the most part, a healthy Leafs team should be fully capable of closing the gap to the top of the division during this month. The Leafs have an absolutely brutal April schedule, so now is the time to make a legitimate run for the Atlantic Division crown.
It was interesting to see who was a part of Dubas and Keefe’s ideal lineup. Or rather, who wasn’t.
It’s been a bad year for Travis Dermott and it looks like he will never be more than a seventh defenseman for the Leafs. Personally, I feel that the Leafs need an extra blueliner with some grit rather than the rushing ability that highlights Dermott’s game.
Via Elliotte Friedman of 32 Thoughts, the Leafs are planning on moving Nick Ritchie before the March trade deadline. I haven’t done enough research yet, but I have a gut feeling that a team like Arizona will make a move for him if the Leafs add in a draft pick sweetener. I also feel like Dermott is not free from the trade market. He is the literal definition of a reclamation project and teams with lots of cap space could be willing to resurrect his career.
This isn’t the final version of the Leafs, but it is the best we have for right now.
4. Killer Instinct Lacking
Let’s ignore the shot count for a second. Yes, it was dreadful that the Leafs couldn’t take advantage of more than 2 of their 52 shots on goal or 31 even-strength scoring chances, but that isn’t the killer instinct that I’m mentioning. Rather, I’m referencing the giveaways and wondering why the Leafs can never take advantage of the opportunities that other teams present them.
Vancouver had 17 giveaways tonight, with a few of the defensive miscues leading to scoring chances for the Leafs. Despite that, the Leafs could not take advantage of the opportunities that were presented to them. At the other end, it seems that whenever the Leafs make a giveaway in the neutral zone, it comes back to haunt them.
The Leafs don’t give the puck away as much as many other teams, if you examine it from an unbiased point of view. However, whether it be due to a lack of a superstar goalie or even just not possessing enough good depth defensemen, the Leafs always seem to be punished more than most teams when it comes to random giveaways.
Let’s throw it back to the disastrous Canadiens series last season, when an ill-advised Alex Galchenyuk pass led to a Nick Suzuki OT winner in Game 5. In Game 6, with the series on the line again, Dermott made a stupid spin move in his own zone, which led to Jesperi Kotkaniemi sniping the goal that tied the series at 3-3.
The Leafs need to find a way to take advantage of other teams’ giveaways, while also limiting the impact of their own if they want to win a Stanley Cup.
5. Thatcher Demko is Close to a Franchise Goaltender
No, I’m not saying that he is one of the best in the league (I do think he is up there, though…), but I am saying that he is the type of goaltender that you can build your team around. Canucks goalie Thatcher Demko is not perfect, but I just have a feeling that Demko possesses the type of brilliance and longevity that can only be found in a franchise goalie.
He made some truly spectacular saves yesterday night, holding off one of the league’s best offenses in a performance that can highlight a career.
Every time I watch him play, I’m reminded of the series that the Canucks had against the Vegas Golden Knights in 2020 in which Demko carried a sleep-walking Vancouver team to within one game of the conference finals. In general, he hasn’t yet hit the heights expected of him since that moment, but he’s showcased what he can do in bursts this year.
Auston Matthews said it best, as he talked about how Demko has been the biggest reason that the Canucks have bounced back from a miserable start to the season. Obviously, new coach Bruce Boudreau deserves a lot of credit, but Demko’s rebound since November has been telling. The American warrants a lion’s share of the credit for Vancouver’s newfound hope.
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