Josh Anderson opens the scoring (Vincent Ethier, Getty Images)
An awful showing from the defense and the Leafs' second line marked an embarrassing defeat to the last-place Montreal Canadiens.
Here are my 5 takeaways from an atrocious loss against a suddenly surging Habs squad.
1. Changes Needed on Defense
I can say with confidence that the Leafs will do absolutely nothing in the postseason unless they make a splash at the trade deadline. In an ideal world, we wouldn't have 4 players taking up nearly half of our available cap space, which would allow the team to pursue a top-pairing defenseman and a second line left wing. However, if we continue with players like Justin Holl and even Jake Muzzin in tough minutes, either the Lightning or the Panthers will destroy the Leafs in the postseason.
If you watched a game with me this season, you would know that I am not Justin Holl's biggest fan. Even last year, when he looked like prime Niklas Lidstrom in comparison to this year, I was slightly skeptical and wasn't convinced that a Stanley Cup-contending team should have Holl in their top-4. Now, though, my anger is justified. Holl was utterly shambolic against Montreal, putting forth the worst individual performance from any Leafs player all season. He lost every puck battle, took a stupid penalty, got hassled by much smaller players and gave away the puck so many times in his own zone. He's not fast, he's not strong and he's not aware. In the majority of Leafs' losses this year, Holl has scarcely resembled an NHL player. His future must be elsewhere, as the Leafs cannot persist with him on their blueline.
Jake Muzzin isn't off the hook either. He went off injured into concussion protocol after a nasty collision in the second period, but other than that, he was downright brutal against a team that has been a lay-up for most NHL defenses in 2021-22. He's lacking the speed needed to defend against the rush and his presence of mind has evaporated. He won't be dealt due to his hefty contract and his potential, but he also warrants criticism.
Something is going to have to change quickly. If the Leafs can't learn a lesson from this game, they are in big trouble.
2. Keefe Needs to Experiment
The second line has a cap hit of just under $21.5 million. Currently, you could probably play three clones of me for free on the ice and the impact would be similar. The Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander line has been excellent in the advanced stats, but the results are not happening for the trio.
They were all awful against the Habs, looking slow and sluggish against the rush and proving incapable of creating offense at even strength. It's been like this for a while and I'm getting tired of bringing this up in my takeaways series. What is the solution? It's simple, in my mind. We've already seen it.
At the end of January, Sheldon Keefe tried out new lines for two games to spark the offense on the top two lines. Ondrej Kase hopped up to the first line in place of Mitch Marner, who dropped to the second line with John Tavares. William Nylander slid to the third line with Pierre Engvall and David Kampf.
I thought these lines worked really well and I was somewhat surprised when Keefe abolished them. They scored 11 goals in two games as a team with the new lines and looked dominant at even strength in two wins against Anaheim and Detroit.
To me, Keefe has the responsibility to try out these lines again. I was frustrated with his decision to not try out these lines in the third period when the Leafs had a 5-0 deficit. If the head coach wants to do something to help this skid, the new lines are a good choice.
3. Mrazek Was an Unmitigated Disaster
For $3.8 million against the cap, Petr Mrazek was expected to be challenging for the starter job. So far, he's been a failure of a signing for Toronto. His performance against the Habs seems like it could be the final straw for his Leafs career.
Unless Mrazek can truly showcase his best play in the next weeks, he is going to be off the team in July. He costs too much and is signed for too long.
I'm not saying that this game would have been different with Jack Campbell in net, but it would have been much closer. Sure, the Czech made one insane save on Josh Anderson that will frame him as a hero, but on the whole, he was awful. You need a save on Mike Hoffman's goal. That simply can't go in on an NHL goalie. Cole Caufield's first period marker and Josh Anderson's second goal were also weak shots to concede.
Mrazek's expected goals against last night was 2.29. He allowed 5 goals, 2.71 goals allowed above expected. Yikes.
4. Wake-Up Call or Sign of Things to Come?
That's a very good question. Keefe and Dubas seem to think this was a fluke, while Leafs Nation thinks the sky is falling.
I apologize that I don't have much of an analysis on this. The Leafs are a cursed team that can either be winning 8-3 against the Colorado Avalanche or going down 5-0 against the Montreal Canadiens. I subscribe to the belief that the Leafs are going to finish third place in the Atlantic, no better and now worse. That probably means a matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Florida Panthers in Round 1.
If the Leafs come out guns blazing against the Blue Jackets tonight, I lean towards the former. If they struggle once more to break through and defend against the rush, the latter may be more correct.
5. Give Marty his Flowers
After losing his first three games as Canadiens boss, Martin St. Louis has won three consecutive matches, including impressive wins versus the Blues and the Leafs to inspire faith in the Montreal fanbase. Realistically, the best the Canadiens can likely finish is 31st of 32 teams, but St. Louis is helping the Habs find their swagger.
Montreal is much more structured defensively under St. Louis, allowing their young goalies like Cayden Primeau and Sam Montembeault a chance to grow in a competitive landscape.
The Cole Caufield transformation is arguably the most impressive part of St. Louis' reign so far. In 30 games under Dominique Ducharme, Caufield had 1 goal and 7 assists in 8 points. In 6 games under Marty, he has 5 goals and 3 assists for 8 points. Think about that. He has the same amount of points in 6 games with St. Louis behind the bench as he had in 30 games under Ducharme.
Hopefully this newfound competitiveness doesn't keep them out of the Shane Wright sweepstakes, but I suspect it will not.
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