Bunting and Marner (Dave Reginek, Getty Images)
The weirdest game in the NHL this season culminated with a Toronto win that can be perfectly reflected by the boxscore.
Here are my 5 takeaways from one of the most wild Leafs games in years.
1. Goaltending has Left the Chat
I am not exaggerating when I say that was the worst goaltending performance in my lifetime. I have the math to back it up.
In total, the puck hit the back of the net 17 times last night, with none of them coming with the net empty. Via MoneyPuck, the expected goal total for the game was 4.86. In other words, the 4 combined goalies that made an appearance in this game conceded over 12 more goals than expected. In a single game. That must be a record. Well, it sure is.
Since expected goals became accessible to the public in 2007, no game has had more of a differential between the actual goals allowed and the expected goals. The previous worst game, according to MoneyPuck, was a 9-8 win for the Winnipeg Jets over the Philadelphia Flyers, with 8.7 goals above expected. That was way back in 2011.
Presumably, this is a once-in-a-generation fluke that we can confidently will say will never occur again, but this is simply the culmination of a dreadful 2022 for Jack Campbell.
At the end of 2021, Jack Campbell was first in the league in goals against average and first in the league in save percentage. Here we are, just two months later, and his red-hot start is in the bin. Campbell now has a distinctly average 2.55 GAA and a .917 SV%. The concerns about him are coming to fruition and we are witnessing a crisis in Toronto.
As easy as it is to say that a top-4 defenseman is necessary, if our goalie can't stop a beach ball, the Leafs aren't going anywhere.
The funny thing about Toronto's play tonight was that the defense was actually fairly good. Outside of a couple mishaps from Liljegren, Toronto's D-corps was rock-solid, limiting a run-and-gun Red Wings team to just 2.01 expected goals. Unfortunately, Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek had other things to say about that, throwing a wrench into what should have been a simple victory.
2. Hit 'Em with the Four like Mitchell Marner
So nice, he did it 4 times. Yeah, doesn't have quite the same ring to it.
What a game from the red-hot Mitch Marner. In just 15:07 minutes, (his lowest total while healthy since November 2018, as per Kevin Papetti), he scored 4 goals and notched two assists for the first 6-point night by a Leafs player since Mats Sundin a year after I was born.
Marner is now on pace for 103 points, despite missing a lot of time with an injury and COVID protocols. He's currently contributing on a daily basis to arguably the best line in hockey (I'll touch on that), while also helping the Leafs maintain an elite penalty kill. Tell me with a straight face that Mitch Marner is overpaid.
He put himself into 20th all-time in Leafs scoring and is still just 24 years of age. We're looking at a talent that we Leafs fans rarely get to celebrate. Instead of criticizing him every April, let's appreciate the superstar in our hands.
He hit' em with the four like Auston Matthews.
3. Cream of the Crop
There are some very appealing options when we are talking about best lines in hockey. Boston's Perfection Line of Brad Marchand-Patrice Bergeron-David Pastrnak has been elite forever, Colorado's trio of Gabriel Landeskog-Nathan MacKinnon-Mikko Rantanen has more skill than any other group on the planet. Calgary's underrated line of Johnny Gaudreau-Elias Lindholm-Matthew Tkachuk controls play so well that the whole bottom-six could do nothing and they'd still be an incredible team (oh wait, that's actually happening).
But my verdict as a completely unbiased fan is that Michael Bunting-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner is the best trio in the NHL currently. I've never had more fun watching a Leafs line. They make the game look so easy. They make plays like they're in the All-Star game, but play with the intensity of a team in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals.
The trio combined for 6 goals and 15 points against Detroit, further establishing themselves as the hottest group in the NHL. It's not just Matthews and Marner though, who are both legitimate Hart candidates. Michael Bunting has been one of the best free-agent signings in the last decade for the Leafs, combining feistiness and natural goal-scoring ability into a perfect fit for the top line.
We've legitimately reached the point where this group could be a top-three line in the Maple Leafs' rich history. The short-lived Mats Sundin-Alexander Mogilny-Gary Roberts line is definitely up there, while the epic cult classic line of Doug Gilmour-Dave Andreychuk-Nikolai Borchevsky line is my personal verdict in modern times (though I've rarely seen them play). Either way, if Bunting-Matthews-Marner continues this before Bunting inevitably gets paid two offseasons from now, they will enter the discussion with the Kid Line of Charlie Conacher-Busher Jackson-Joe Primeau as the best Leafs group ever.
4. Update on the Jake Muzzin Situation
Saturday games are always fun, as we usually get a bombshell during the 32 Thoughts portion of the second intermission. We got some more big news yesterday.
While the placing of Jake Muzzin on LTIR obviously opened speculation as to how the Leafs would inevitably use their newfound cap space (7 million!) to add to a team that clearly needs help (I mean, they just shipped 7 to the Red Wings). Whether it's JT Miller, Jared McCann, John Klingberg, Adam Larsson, Damon Severson, Hampus Lindholm, or even Marc-Andre Fleury, the Leafs were widely expected to use their cap relief to their advantage. According to Elliotte Freidman, that may not be the case.
Reportedly, if Jake Muzzin is available before the playoffs, the Leafs will not hold him out. They will bring him back off of LTIR with his cap hit alongside it. This means that Toronto will only have about $2 million. Frankly, that isn't enough to fix this team.
I personally feel that this is a lie. Kyle Dubas could say that and just keep him out regardless or more realistically, that they just feel that Jake Muzzin shouldn't come back. He's clearly been injured all year and the concussion he suffered against Montreal looked nasty.
My wisdom indicates that Muzzin should stay on LTIR and let the Leafs pursue a rental on defense. We'll see how that happens.
5. Fascinating Battle of the Rookies
It's entirely possible that we just watched a game with all three Calder finalists. Lucas Raymond potted a hat-trick, Michael Bunting had 5 points and Moritz Seider continues to get half-decent results on a D pairing with the utterly awful Danny DeKeyser.
These three are all excellent players with bright futures ahead. Since I've spent so much time on Bunting, let's take a second to reflect on Raymond and Seider.
These two are cornerstones for a Detroit team that is rebuilding quite well under Steve Yzerman. Raymond is Marner-esque with his creativity in the offensive zone. Seider is a future Norris Trophy winner, the best Red Wings defenseman since Nicklas Lidstrom. It's going to be a lot of fun watching these two over the next decade.
ALL STATS COURTESY OF MONEYPUCK AND NATURAL STAT TRICK
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