The Leafs' hot streak was doused at home in a crushing defeat at the hands of the St. Louis Blues.
Here are my 5 takeaways from the game as the Leafs' defensive struggles were laid bare (and then promptly resolved a half hour later).
1. Brutal Officiating
Of everything I've accomplished with the Sincere Sports blog, from writing almost 40 high-quality articles in less than two months to tackling 6 different sports to making insanely accurate Australian Open predictions, my most impressive feat is none of the above. Ever since I started the takeaways near the beginning of the NHL season, I have not complained about refereeing at all; at least, not in my blog.
My streak has to come to an end though, as the poor job of Wes McCauley was so evident last night that it may have cost the Leafs a point.
Off the top of my head, I remember a missed trip on Wayne Simmonds, a missed hook on Rasmus Sandin where he would have scored the tying goal if not for the hook, and the absolutely disastrous missed too-many-men call that changed the momentum in the third period. The Leafs' power play is strong enough for me to say that if at least one of those was called correctly, it would be a different game.
Sure, the defense was bad most of the night, but the Leafs played well enough offensively to warrant at least a loss in OT.
The Blues get away with too many men (Alberto, Twitter)
Let's take a look at the picture above. It doesn't show the entire scene, but look how obvious this is. The Blues' sixth man, who is circled) literally handles the puck before Torey Krug leaves the ice. One minute later, Brandon Saad scored the game-winning goal.
Are you kidding me?
2. Nylander Gets Back on Track
William Nylander looked like he was on pace for the best season of his career at the start of the season. Then he hit one of his trademark skids. We know that Nylander is capable of just going ballistic for a few games and then he goes to playing ice-cold immediately after his hot streak is complete.
It's been a tough February for Will Ny the Scoring Guy, particularly at even strength, but Willy looked right at home in an impressive performance. His smooth skating and deadly wrister helped him pot two goals against Ville Husso on his own. Keep in mind that Husso's GAA over his last 10 games was at 1.55. Quite a way to snap his drought.
The Leafs need a lot of things to go right to be true Cup contenders. They need a top-4 defenseman at the deadline (no, Ilya Lyubushkin isn't enough), they need Jack Campbell to go back to his form in November and they need valuable shifts from the fourth line more consistently.
However, if the second line is working well at 5-on-5, it boosts the Leafs so much. It helps take the load off of the first line and it creates matchup nightmares. John Tavares and Alex Kerfoot were good tonight, but we need some more out of that trio if the Leafs are to do any damage.
Oh, here's a weird stat via Jonas Siegel. The only players with more 5-on-5 assists than Kerfoot (22) this year are:
Johnny Gaudreau (29)
Jonathan Huberdeau (25)
Timo Meier (24)
Kirill Kaprizov (23)
Nazem Kadri (23)
Maybe a 2LW isn't so important after all...
3. Muzzin is the Real X-Factor, not Marner
Yep, that's right. I said it. Maybe Mitch Marner isn't the biggest X-factor on the Leafs. It's not William Nylander either. Or even Jack Campbell. It's Jake Muzzin. Muzzin's career has been the epitome of consistency to this point. It's the reason that the Leafs felt comfortable inking the blueliner to a 4 year, $22.5 million contract last season. However, his play this season has been legitimately concerning.
It's probably true that he's been battling an injury, which would hinder his physicality, a key part of Muzzin's game. However, we still need better out of the D-man.
Without Muzzin at his best, the Leafs' depth defensemen crater, as they are forced to play tougher minutes. Without Muzzin at his best, the Leafs have a major hole on the second pairing and if the Leafs want to win the Cup this year, they are going to have to give up a very valuable asset or two to fix it.
Muzzin was poor again tonight, but he was coming off his best game of the season. If the bearded wonder can find some consistency and help protect Jack Campbell, there is no reason that this Leafs team can't go far. They have the offensive firepower that indicates a contender, but they are lacking rock-solid play at the back.
4. Common Dubas W
What a deal. Ilya Lyubushkin and Ryan Dzingel have already made an impact in Toronto by distracting Leafs Nation from a concerning loss simply by arriving.
On a more serious note, this trade is a W for the Leafs. The Coyotes have no need for a physical defenseman in Lyubushkin's mould or a bottom-six depth piece in Ryan Dzingel, as they are not going to get anywhere near the playoffs, even in a weak Western Conference. The Leafs, on the other hand, absolutely need those pieces.
I would have liked this trade on its' own, but Kyle Dubas took advantage of Arizona's plentiful cap space to dump Nick Ritchie's contract. Reportedly, it would cost the Leafs a second-round pick to get rid of Ritchie. However, the Leafs management managed to extract NHL value out of Ritchie without having to give up any other picks. It's a win-win. The contract was looking like a possible albatross for next season, but Ritchie is Arizona's problem now. Watch him score 30 goals next year. I do wish him good luck with the Yotes, as he is undoubtedly a decent player. He simply didn't fit with what the Leafs were trying to build.
Lyubushkin is far from a household name, so I'll try to help explain what he will bring to the Leafs this year. Frankly, I haven't watched much of him this year because the Coyotes simply aren't very exciting to watch, but I do have some intel on him. He's a big guy at 6'2 and over 200 pounds. He throws his body around and blocks shots. HIs 94 hits on the season would lead the Leafs and his 60 blocked shots puts him in third behind Justin Holl and TJ Brodie. He fares well against elite competition. He's been outscored 6-7 in just over 250 minutes against elite competition this year, which is quite good considering he plays for a terrible Arizona team.
I really like this trade and hopefully it solves some defensive issues that arose last night.
5. Deja Vu in the St. Louis Crease
Stop me if you've heard this before. A veteran Blues goalie starts struggling so the coaching staff decides to entrust the young upstart with more chances and the young goaltender seizes the starting job.
That's right. It's the exact same storyline from the Blues' 2019 Stanley Cup run, during which a young Jordan Binnington ousted Jake Allen as the starter and led St. Louis to glory.
Now it's the other way around. Blues prospect Ville Husso is on a tear and Binnington is struggling mightily with the same team in front of him. It's looking more and more likely that Husso is both the present and the future of the Blues goaltending tandem.
In 19 games, Husso has saved 16.1 goals above expected, whereas Binnington has saved -10.3 goals above expected. Husso's save percentage above expected is at 0.016. Binner, meanwhile, has a save percentage above expected of -0.008.
Husso has been getting the lion's share of the starts lately. He was quite good tonight, making a few impressive reflex saves, particularly on a Mitch Marner deflection that preserved the Blues' lead. It really does look like Binnington's career in St. Louis is coming to a close and I would expect to see a trade in the offseason.
Dare I say that it's "deja Blue"? Okay, I'll stop.
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ALL STATS COURTESY OF NATURAL STAT TRICK
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