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NBA Midseason Award Predictions

 

Nikola Jokic (Gerald Herbert, The Associated Press)

    We have reached the halfway mark of the NBA season. Most teams have played at least 41 games and order is starting to be discovered. We know which teams are good, which teams are bad, and which players are in their best form. 
    Naturally, it seemed like the perfect time to look at the NBA award races and just take a quick look at who are the current favourites as well as a couple possible challengers to the crown. 
    I'll be listing three different options for each award and will be fitting them into three different categories. 

    Favourite: the most likely winner of the award at this point
    Runner-Up: the option next in line if the favourite falters
    Sleeper: another possible option who I expect could take a step up and challenge for the award
    
    With the explanation out of the way, let's get on with it. 

Rookie of the Year

Evan Mobley (Jeremy Woo, Sports Illustrated)

Favourite: Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Not only is Mobley the league's best rookie, he's got a decent shot at being a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Via Player Impact Estimate, his mark of 12.0 tops all rookies. Mobley's arrival has coincided with the Cavs transforming from a basement team to one of the best in the East.

Runner-Up: Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
    Though Barnes has had a rough go of it as of late, struggling with inefficiency and tough matchups, he came out of the gates looking like the next Draymond Green. He was shooting close to 50% from the field, suppressing all concerns about his limited scoring ability.

Sleeper: Franz Wagner, Orlando Magic
    Wagner's well-rounded game has been key in bringing hope back to Orlando. He put together a 23-game stretch scoring 10 points or more. He averages a steal every game and has impressed me with his rebounding ability. Wagner has become a blue-chip player for the Magic now. 

Coach of the Year

JB Bickerstaff (David Richard, USA Today)

Favourite: JB Bickerstaff, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Another part of the Cavs organization is an award favourite in my book. JB Bickerstaff has had a moderately successful coaching career, having particular success with young players. This year though, he's reached another level. The Cavaliers are 2.5 games out of top spot in the Eastern Conference, and Bickerstaff is getting the best out of Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Kevin Love and many more.

Runner-Up: Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls
    On a team that was expected to struggle to find a perfect fit with their starting 5, Billy Donovan has showcased his regular season coaching credentials by developing a system that suits all Chicago's stars. DeMar Derozan has been a borderline MVP candidate. Players like Javonte Green, Ayo Dosunmu and Alex Caruso are all role players who have found a home with the Bulls.

Sleeper: Taylor Jenkins, Memphis Grizzlies
    The Grizzles were expected to sink when Ja Morant was out after a scary leg injury. In fact, the team has been more than capable of winning without their star point guard. He's been gradually improving in his three seasons as head coach in Memphis and is forming a very tough team to play against.

Most Improved Player

Miles Bridges (Jacob Kupferman, Getty Images)

Favourite: Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets
    Bridges went from a guy known for his dunking to an actual star. He's playing 7 more minutes per game, averaging 7.3 more PPG, 1.3 more RPG and 1.4 more APG. He's bounced back in a big way and is finding the game that made him a former 12th overall pick.

Runner-Up: Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
    Like with Bickerstaff and Mobley, Garland has a great shot at winning one of the NBA's major awards. Garland's player efficiency rating is 5.1 points higher than his career average. Without Collin Sexton holding him back, Garland looks like a future 50-40-90 player who can average close to 20 points and 10 assists per game.

Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Golden State Warriors
    Despite playing less than 110 games in the NBA before this year, which usually rules players out from MIP contention, Poole is finding a niche on the Warriors this season. He's a great microwave scorer and is becoming a valuable shooter from beyond the arc. 

Sixth Man of the Year

Tyler Herro (Kevin Jairaj, USA Today)

Favourite: Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
    Herro had a promising rookie campaign, but a disappointing sophomore year led many to deem him overhyped. The University of Kentucky product has exploded with nearly 21 points per game, second to only Jimmy Butler on the Heat. He's always been a fairly efficient scorer and is continuing to play at that rate. As long as he doesn't start enough games to be deemed ineligible, Herro will be the favourite for the award.

Runner-Up: Montrezl Harrell, Washington Wizards
    One of the best bench options of the last 5 years, Harrell is on his third team in three seasons, but still being a key part of the Wizards' rotation. He's been shooting at a career-high efficiency and has given Washington an effective bench option every time he touches the floor. 

Sleeper: Kelly Oubre Jr., Charlotte Hornets
    After a rough year last season in Golden State, Oubre has bounced back in a big way with the Charlotte Hornets. Oubre has become an essential closer for the Hornets, who are averaging 16.1 points less per 100 possessions during the last 12 minutes of a game. He's become a reliable three-point shooter, shooting 4% better from deep than his career average. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Draymond Green (Wilton Jackson, Sports Illustrated)

Favourite: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
    Draymond Green is finally getting his credit as a defensive ace. He communicates so well with his teammates and is one of the smartest defenders in the NBA. He blocks lanes and breaks up most pick-and-roll plays. He's one of the most multidimensional players in the entire NBA.

Runner-Up: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz
    With three DPOY awards already in his trophy cabinet, Gobert is on pace to challenge for another top-3 finish. He leads the league in defensive win shares, contests more shots in the paint than just about anybody else and, as always, is blocking an insane amount of attempts. He's a key part of Utah's defense, which really struggles without Gobert.

Sleeper: Mikal Bridges, Phoenix Suns
    The Suns' number 2 rated defense is a byproduct of Mikal Bridges' breakthrough on the defensive side of the ball. Something I read recently was that when Bridges has been marking Steph Curry, Curry has shot just 2-of-12 for 4 points total. Bridges' perimeter defense is one of the best in the league.

Most Valuable Player

Steph Curry (Getty Images)

Favourite: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
    Jokic's 49-point triple double against the Clippers on Wednesday wasn't even the most impressive part of his game, which just goes to show why the Serbian deserves a second consecutive MVP trophy. He is on pace for the best player efficiency rating in NBA history. The underwhelming Nuggets are the only thing holding the brilliant Jokic from another MVP campaign.

Runner-Up: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
    From a statistical perspective, Curry really isn't having a special season by his high standards. His sub-39% three-point shooting percentage is the lowest of his entire career. On the floor however, Curry is definitely an MVP candidate. The spacing he offers for his teammates has helped make the Warriors one of the best teams in the NBA.

Sleeper: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
    Though voter's fatigue is a real thing, Giannis' season might be too good for voters to ignore. His stats are almost identical to his best MVP season. He's a bona fide defensive player of the year candidate and his passing has improved both in transition and from the perimeter. No other player possesses the Greek Freak's impact on both sides of the ball.

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